Article: 2016 Twins Roster Projections: The Starting Pitchers

[Seth Stohs]

After looking at the roster projections through the Minnesota Twins hitters from the big leagues to the extended spring training rosters. Today, and later this week, we’ll conclude the roster projections by looking at the pitchers in the Twins organization.

 

Of course, signings or trades can change these projections, so they are as of right now. There may be injuries around spring training, so these are certainly subject to change.There will be competition for some of these starting jobs, so we’ll see what happens. Are there any prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

 

MAJOR LEAGUES

Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone

 

2015 saw the Twins starting staff improve its cumulative ERA by over a run. They went from easily the worst starting staff in baseball to merely being in the bottom quadrant. Kyle Gibson was chosen by the writers and by Twins Daily as the Twins best pitcher. He posted an ERA+ of 108. Ervin Santana missed the first half of the season with suspension. He came back to mixed results, though he ended strong. His ERA was also slightly above league average. Phil Hughes really struggled with health and wasn’t able to back up his amazing 2014 season. In all likelihood, the right-hander is somewhere in between. Tommy Milone had to go to Rochester for a month. He gave up one run in the month and came back up. Though he’ll never look dominant, he has an uncanny way of getting the job done most times out. Tyler Duffey wasn’t talked about much coming into the 2015 season (except at Twins Daily, of course). After a rough debut, he was the Twins best starting pitcher over the final six weeks of the season.

 

Other Contenders: Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco, JO Berrios.

 

MINOR LEAGUES

 

Rochester Red Wings

JO Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean, DJ Baxendale, Jason Wheeler

 

Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out. I just don’t think he’ll be in Rochester for too long. Taylor Rogers, if there aren’t any more lefty relievers signed, could legitimately be in the big league bullpen. However, I think the Twins will have him continue to start in AAA until needed in the bullpen with the Twins. Pat Dean had a terrific, shocking 2015 season for the Red Wings. Like Rogers, he was added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season. Jason Wheeler was on the Twins 40-man roster a year ago but really struggled in AAA. He pitched well in AA. After being removed from the 40-man in early September, he led the Lookouts to the Southern League championship. DJ Baxendale has been a decent starter, when healthy, and likely remains in that role a little longer.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts

David Hurlbut, Brett Lee, Aaron Slegers, Ryan Eades, Omar Bencomo

 

David Hurlbut and Brett Lee are two very similar pitchers. They’re left-handed, are not overpowering, have strong secondary pitches, and just keep finding success all the way up. Hurlbut went to Venezuela this winter and pitched very well. Aaron Slegers moved up to the Lookouts late in the season after pitching well for Ft. Myers. At 6-10, he isn’t overpowering, but he walks no one. Ryan Eades had an improved season in Ft. Myers in 2015 after a frustrating first full season in 2014 in Cedar Rapids. He’ll look to make the jump to AA. Omar Bencomo was signed late in the season and worked some innings for the Miracle. He’s been around for a long time. He strikes out almost no one, but gets grounders.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle

Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay, Randy Rosario, John Curtiss

 

Stewart was able to stay healthy for most of the 2015 season which is as important as anything. He continues to not miss bats, though some observers say that most times out, he continued to not give up hard contact. I think staying with the Miracle for a month or two would be beneficial. Gonsalves dominated in Cedar Rapids for two months before moving up to the Miracle. There was some adjustment to the new level. He’s likely to remain with the Miracle for a couple of months before moving up to the Lookouts. Felix Jorge was arguably the most consistent starting pitcher in the entire Twins organization in 2015. He could be counted on for completing at least six innings and giving up two runs or fewer. He’s ready for this jump. Tyler Jay will make his transition to starter in 2016. The Twins are likely to be somewhat cautious with him. My guess is he’ll start for half of the season and then move up to Chattanooga and pitch in the bullpen the rest of the season. Randy Rosario was a surprising add to the Twins 40-man roster after the season. However, after returning to the Kernels after missing 14 months with Tommy John surgery, he was clocked as high as 97. He’s got a good slider too. John Curtiss started some for Cedar Rapids a year ago but struggled with arm issues. He will likely end up in the bullpen, but he’ll get another shot to start.

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels

Sam Gibbons, Sam Clay, Keaton Steele, Andro Cutura, Dereck Rodriguez, Cody Stashak, (Lewis Thorpe, Fernando Romero)

 

Sam Gibbons began last season in EST, but when he came up, the Australian right-hander was very good. He ate innings. I can see him starting with the Kernels. The most difficult pitcher on this list is Keaton Steele. He too began in EST, but when he came up, he was also one of the better starters. With a lot of talent at Ft. Myers, however, I feel like he’ll be the first one to move up when one of the Miracle starters moves up. Sam Clay had a difficult 2015 season, particularly struggling with control. He’ll get another chance to start, likely with the Kernels. Andro Cutura was drafted in 2014, but due to injury, he didn’t pitch until 2015 in E-Town. He was very steady. Dereck Rodriguez was named the Appalachian League pitcher of the Year. He saw some time with the Kernels and Miracle before the short season leagues started. Cody Stashak was drafted in 2015 and pitched well with the E-Twins. Not overpowering, he just knows how to pitch.

 

 

Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero are both throwing now and should be ready by June or so.

 

Extended Spring Training

Williams Ramirez, Lachlan Wells, Eduardo Del Rosario, Brandon Easton, Jovani Moran, Moises Gomez, Matz Schutte

 

Williams Ramirez was our choice for Twins Daily short-season minor league pitcher of the year. He dominated the GCL. He was older for the level, but he has only been pitching for a couple of years. He’ll move up and could move quickly. Lachlan Wells is a left-hander from Australia who is reminiscent of Lewis Thorpe. he pitched well in the GCL in his debut season and then represented his country in international competition. Eduardo Del Rosario has some upside. He’s pitched in various roles during his time with the Twins, but as he’s grown, he’s been able to eat more innings. Brandon Easton can throw hard (mid-to-upper 90s) and has a chance to start. He struggled with control a year ago in Elizabethton before being shut down to rehab. Jovani Moran was drafted a year ago out of Puerto Rico. He is young and could remain in the GCL, or he could be pushed to E-Town. Moises Gomez will return to the GCL after struggling there in 2015. Schutte signed with the Twins out of The Netherlands. He got limited GCL innings in his pro debut.

 

SUMMARY

 

The Twins have some depth in the big leagues. This rotation is much better than the rotations that we saw over the four 90-loss seasons, but there are a lot of #3s and #4s. Nothing wrong with that. We’ve seen what those types of pitchers make in free agency, but there isn’t a #1 or really even a #2 type. Berrios has a chance to be an upper-rotation starter, though will that happen in 2016? We shall see, and barring something catastrophic, we will see. We can hope also that Gibson can take another step forward, and Duffey can show that those eight final starts are what he and his curveball can be.

 

There is some depth in AAA, and a couple of guys to watch in AA. However, if you’re looking for prospects to follow (beyond Berrios), you’ll want to watch that Ft. Myers roster. There is some serious talent that will be starting for the Miracle. At least in the first half of the season. And there are some more hard-throwers in the lower ranks.

 

Starting Pitcher Rankings:

• JO Berrios,
• Stephen Gonsalves,
• Tyler Jay,
• Kohl Stewart,
• Lewis Thorpe

Later this week, we’ll finish up our roster projections by considering the options for the bullpens. Feel free to discuss and ask questions.

 

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[clutterheart]

Is there a reason Huascar Ynoa won't be in the GCL this year?  He had a really nice DSL stat line

[USAFChief]

If the Twins view Taylor Rogers as a bullpen piece, it makes no sense to me to put him in the Rochester rotation.

 

He's 25, repeating AAA. He's not listed among your top 8 Twins starters. Put him in the pen where he can focus on learning to warm quickly, and get used to pitching on back to back days, and then maybe pitching 3 days in a row.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm beginning to think that the Twins have been planning on Rogers taking that lefty pen spot.  It isn't necessarily a bad plan, especially if it means giving Meyer another shot starting (something tells me that won't be the case either), but I think the Twins want him to step up this spring and show he can get major league lefties out. 

 

That high minors pitching roster with the exception of Berrios looks pretty weak.  No one there I'm really excited about, but definitely lots of interesting names in A ball and EST.  It's nice to see a second wave down there of potential top half of the rotation type arms that could be used to acquire needed pieces or supplement some of the contracts when they move off...

 

As to the major league rotation, I'm oddly optimistic.  I think Hughes bounces back and has a nice even year while Santana looks like Santana.  I think Gibson really takes a step forward too.  Not sure what they will do with Ricky, and I really wish Trevor May was in the rotation.  It might be interesting to see what happens if Duffey has a poor spring. I could see him back in AAA to start, though I really want to see Milone traded if both Duffey and May are looking good this spring. 

[Boom Boom]

Nolasco will get a month or two to pitch himself out of the rotation. Duffey will start in AAA.

 

Book it.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is there a reason Huascar Ynoa won't be in the GCL this year?  He had a really nice DSL stat line

 

He most likely will. The question is whether he'll come to the States for spring training and Extended Spring Training or just stay in the Dominican until mid-June when the GCL starts. 

[Vanimal46]

diehard is right. Looking at the AAA rotation, once Berrios is up in the majors, that's going to be a weak rotation. And I doubt that any pitcher in A ball is going to get the Garza projection of moving up multiple levels in a season... 

I'm also with Chief. Get Rogers out of the AAA rotation, get him used to a routine pitching in the pen, and bring him up to the big show. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

If the Twins view Taylor Rogers as a bullpen piece, it makes no sense to me to put him in the Rochester rotation.

He's 25, repeating AAA. He's not listed among your top 8 Twins starters. Put him in the pen where he can focus on learning to warm quickly, and get used to pitching on back to back days, and then maybe pitching 3 days in a row.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with this, and that's very well what they might do.

 

The warming-up quickly part is the piece that's an unknown, as well as working every day or two. 

 

He'll pitch in more situations as a starter, but that other stuff may have importance as well. 

[tobi0040]

The good news is gonsalves, jay, kohl, and Jorge won't be blocked by anyone in AA

[Blackjack]

 

Nolasco will get a month or two to pitch himself out of the rotation. Duffey will start in AAA.

Book it.

I agree!!

[ToddlerHarmon]

I'm afraid Boom Boom is right, we will see more Ricky starts. Love the Ft Myers staff, though

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Looking at the rotation in Rochester I see no reason why Alex Meyer shouldn't be given another chance to start there. I think it's still too early to give up on him as a starter.

[tobi0040]

 

Looking at the rotation in Rochester I see no reason why Alex Meyer shouldn't be given another chance to start there. I think it's still too early to give up on him as a starter.

 

Nothing to really lose there, good call.

 

Give him 10 starts or so to thorw some pitches and tell him the plen is to move him back to the pen.  If he is lighting the world on fire, then maybe that changes.

[Dantes929]

"Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out"

I see this a lot but don't really buy into it.   I am guessing May is the Twins best pitcher but what evidence is there that Berrios is better than Duffey.   Duffey was promoted because he was doing as well or better at the time and he has certainly proved it thus far in the majors.    If you are looking at WHIP or strikeout rates in the minors then of course Tommy Milone owns the title.  I am excited about seeing Berrios and hope he is as good as the hype but am more excited about Duffey.    He has the best curve ball since Blyleven and that might be a compliment to Bert.

[DocBauer]

Meyer should be starting...PERIOD. Other than Berrios, there is no one he can't replace. You just give up,on an arm like that after one down year.

 

Yeah....the Fort is fortified!

 

May belongs in the rotation of this still rebuilding/retooling team...SECOND PERIOD.

 

I am also more optimistic in regard to the Twins rotatio, even without Berrios to start the season. We have a difficult enough time trying to describe and agree on the criteria of an Ace or #1 SP, much less get I to what actually makes a true #2...but...IMHO...a healthy Hughes, Santana pitching like his normal self, an improved/improving Gibson are all 2-3 types who often/usually throw the way I'd expect a #2/top rotation starter to perform. Duffey...well...let's see if he can pitch at close to the way he did last year. If he can...oh my!

[Seth Stohs]

I WISH that I could adamantly disagree with you on this one... I HOPE this isn't the case.

 

Then again, I still think Nolasco can be a solid, mid-rotation starter when healthy, so I don't know. I do know that Nolasco won't be handed anything... I don't think. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nothing to really lose there, good call.

 

Give him 10 starts or so to thorw some pitches and tell him the plen is to move him back to the pen.  If he is lighting the world on fire, then maybe that changes.

 

I'm not opposed to that, but he's been told to work out this offseason in preparation for the bullpen. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

"Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out"

I see this a lot but don't really buy into it.   I am guessing May is the Twins best pitcher but what evidence is there that Berrios is better than Duffey.   Duffey was promoted because he was doing as well or better at the time and he has certainly proved it thus far in the majors.    If you are looking at WHIP or strikeout rates in the minors then of course Tommy Milone owns the title.  I am excited about seeing Berrios and hope he is as good as the hype but am more excited about Duffey.    He has the best curve ball since Blyleven and that might be a compliment to Bert.

 

There is no evidence. There are scouting reports, and there is his minor league track record including AAA. But yeah, there is no real proof of it. That's why I used the word "May." 

 

Duffey and May weren't nearly the prospects that Berrios is, but again TINSTAAPP, so you never know until they get there. 

 

I'm with you on Duffey. I had him ranked in the mid-teens coming into last year. Jeremy was even a little higher, but most didn't have him in their top 30 Twins prospects. But then seeing that curveball on TV and in person and you realize that it is something that is not seen every day. Very rare!

[ThejacKmp]

 

"Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out"

I see this a lot but don't really buy into it.   I am guessing May is the Twins best pitcher but what evidence is there that Berrios is better than Duffey.   Duffey was promoted because he was doing as well or better at the time and he has certainly proved it thus far in the majors.    If you are looking at WHIP or strikeout rates in the minors then of course Tommy Milone owns the title.  I am excited about seeing Berrios and hope he is as good as the hype but am more excited about Duffey.    He has the best curve ball since Blyleven and that might be a compliment to Bert.

 

Duffey was promoted because he had more experience (AAA at the time) than Berrios (AA at the time), because the Twins didn't want Berrios to pitch too many innings and due to service time considerations – not because he was better than Berrios.

 

You have to remember that Duffey originally came up for just a spot start or two due to injury but as he pitched well and guys who had been scuffling were unable to come back, the Twins stuck with him. It’s kind of a strange thing where the guy you're most excited about (Berrios) doesn't get the call because you don't want to start that clock for just a few starts (if someone had been done for the year I imagine you would have seen Berrios because it would be worth the service time/innings things to see him push the Twins towards the playoffs). To Duffey's credit, he took the chance and excelled, putting himself in a position where he'll need a terrible spring to not make the MLB rotation. (Which is funny because if the MLB staff had been healthy last year and Duffey wasn't called upon, he'd have no shot at the rotation this year because Berrios would be the guy up first - he'd be stuck as the second guy up). 

Don't get me wrong, I’m super stoked about Duffey and if he can turn into a solid #3 starter (or maybe a poor man’s #2?) it will be amazing for the Twins. His emergence is one of the best storylines of last year for the Twins. But he’s not better than Berrios.  J.O. is three years younger and has been better than Duff Man at every step of the organizational ladder. He has borderline elite strikeout capability and again, is sniffing the majors at age 21. Berrios could be a #1 starter if everything breaks his way. Duffey is a fun prospect but Berrios is better in every sense of the word. Service time is the only thing holding him back at this point.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I am guessing May is the Twins best pitcher but what evidence is there that Berrios is better than Duffey.  

 

Here is the evidence. Sorry to use ERA but FIP in the minors isn’t something I care to go find since baseball reference doesn’t have it. ERA is good enough, especially with the K rates.

 

Elizabethton:
Berrios (age 18) 1.29 ERA, 14.1 K/9
Duffey (age 21) 1.42 ERA, 12.8 K/9

 

Cedar Rapids:
Berrios (age 19) 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9
Duffey (age 22) 2.78 ERA, 7.3 K/9

 

Fort Myers:
Berrios (Age 20) 1.97 ERA, 10.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 22) 4.02 ERA, 6.0 K/9

 

New Britain/Chattanooga:
Berrios (Age 20) 3.22 ERA, 8.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 23/24) 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9

 

Rochester:
Berrios (Age 21) 3.08 ERA, 9.1 K/9
Duffey (Age 24) 2.75 ERA, 7.5 K/9

 

Duffey has also given up more HR/9 at every step of the way. The key thing to me is the age thing – Duffey is young to be making it to the bigs and Berrios is over three years younger but Berrios is still better the whole way up. Duffey still has had a very nice minor league career (he’s recovered nicely from a dip in strikeout rate which I'm sure has a rational "he was working on his changeup" explanation) but only one of these guys looks elite. Duffey is merely a very good prospect (for which we are grateful) while Berrios is a guy you can have Cy Young dreams about.

[tobi0040]

 

Here is the evidence. Sorry to use ERA but FIP in the minors isn’t something I care to go find since baseball reference doesn’t have it. ERA is good enough, especially with the K rates.

 

Elizabethton:
Berrios (age 18) 1.29 ERA, 14.1 K/9
Duffey (age 21) 1.42 ERA, 12.8 K/9

 

Cedar Rapids:
Berrios (age 19) 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9
Duffey (age 22) 2.78 ERA, 7.3 K/9

 

Fort Myers:
Berrios (Age 20) 1.97 ERA, 10.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 22) 4.02 ERA, 6.0 K/9

 

New Britain/Chattanooga:
Berrios (Age 20) 3.22 ERA, 8.2 K/9
Duffey (Age 23/24) 3.41 ERA, 7.6 K/9

 

Rochester:
Berrios (Age 21) 3.08 ERA, 9.1 K/9
Duffey (Age 24) 2.75 ERA, 7.5 K/9

 

Duffey has also given up more HR/9 at every step of the way. The key thing to me is the age thing – Duffey is young to be making it to the bigs and Berrios is over three years younger but Berrios is still better the whole way up. Duffey still has had a very nice minor league career (he’s recovered nicely from a dip in strikeout rate which I'm sure has a rational "he was working on his changeup" explanation) but only one of these guys looks elite. Duffey is merely a very good prospect (for which we are grateful) while Berrios is a guy you can have Cy Young dreams about.

 

This is pretty convincing.  And Berrios has 130 innings at AA and 78 at AAA.  So I am not sure the guy needs a ton of seasoning . And he strikes me as the type of guy that is at least as mentally strong as other fast risers in the past.

 

 

[Loosey]

I think I mentioned this in another post about Stephen Gonsalves (who I am very high on) but in 3-4 years the Twins entire rotation could be guys who are considered #2 or #3 starters, or even a true #1 with the rest being 2/3's with no one really considered a traditional #4 or #5 based on ERA, FIP, etc. Berrios, Duffey, Gibson, Gonsalves, May, Jay, Kohl, Thorpe.  If they all pan out (which I admit might not happen due to baseball being tough) could be one hell of a nice rotation.  Imagine never having to struggle through watching Kevin Correia or Pedro Hernandez every 4th and 5th day.  #5 starter could be relied upon just as much as the #1 if everything turns out as planned. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the Twins view Taylor Rogers as a bullpen piece, it makes no sense to me to put him in the Rochester rotation.

He's 25, repeating AAA. He's not listed among your top 8 Twins starters. Put him in the pen where he can focus on learning to warm quickly, and get used to pitching on back to back days, and then maybe pitching 3 days in a row.

 

Preach it. Otherwise we'll hear how he can't be in the bullpen because he's not used to it. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Wow, that Chattanooga group is very very "Twinsie" and uninspiring. 

[nicksaviking]

 

If the Twins view Taylor Rogers as a bullpen piece, it makes no sense to me to put him in the Rochester rotation.
 

 

I agree, Rogers should be in the pen, but I'm a bit worried he's going to be considered for emergency rotation help. After Milone, the only remotely viable lefty before you get to Gonsalves in A ball is Dean, and I'd barely consider him viable.

 

And I still think the Twins are pretty set in the idea that lefties are needed in the rotation, even if the right-handed options are better pitchers.

[Thrylos]

I think that Kohl Stewart starts at Chattanooga.  He should not repeat Fort Myers because of Bencomo (who might not even be a Twin after Spring Training)

 

I think that Ryan will do what he usually does regarding the Twins' rotation, pending major ST meltdowns:  Follow the $.  I will be surprised if it is not Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, in order of job safety.  If someone has a crazy Spring, Milone might go to the pen, not Nolasco.  The Twins really need Nolasco to have a hotter than hey start,  so they can trade him ASAP.

 

Also I think that Romero will be in the pen now.

 

Other than that (and the uncertainty regarding the Twins' pen that might take some SPs from AAA), I think that this is spot on...  

[birddog]

I know some pessimists don't like the look of things, but we have to excited for the near future, if not for the present. If Nolasco is healthy, Twins have no choice but to give him a shot with what he is being paid. If he succeeds, he gets peddled. If not he gets his release with the Twins knowing for sure he can't produce any more. Either way Berrios will be the recipient of his starting gig after hopefully no more than 4-5 appearances.

 

Really like Duffey and the Bert-curve comparison is right on. Nice to see him changing speeds on it, too. I agree with those who say start Meyer off as a starter, even if it may be in Rochester. Shouldn't go from can't miss to missed in just one bad season. Starting pitching always seems to work itself out due to injuries and ineffectiveness, so we have to be patient in April. We are finding out already how tough it is to work the 40-man roster with all our young prospects. Nice to have that problem, but I still wish TR would have traded some of those prospects for Chapman.

[Mike Sixel]

Teams don't trade in April/May....if Nolasco is good, he's here until June/July.

[tobi0040]

 

I think that Kohl Stewart starts at Chattanooga.  He should not repeat Fort Myers because of Bencomo (who might not even be a Twin after Spring Training)

 

I think that Ryan will do what he usually does regarding the Twins' rotation, pending major ST meltdowns:  Follow the $.  I will be surprised if it is not Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, in order of job safety.  If someone has a crazy Spring, Milone might go to the pen, not Nolasco.  The Twins really need Nolasco to have a hotter than hey start,  so they can trade him ASAP.

 

Also I think that Romero will be in the pen now.

 

Other than that (and the uncertainty regarding the Twins' pen that might take some SPs from AAA), I think that this is spot on...  

 

I hope you are wrong about Nolasco.  I just don't see a team see 5-6 good starts out of him and then want to take on that contract, given what he has done the last 2 years.  That would seem a very dilusional, wishful thinking.   I am not saying we won't start him and hope for it though.

Edited January 26, 2016 by tobi0040

[birddog]

If he's good, that's not a bad thing is it?