Article: Eddie Rosario: Sophomore Stud?

[Cody Christie]

Miguel Sano got a lot of the praise following his breakout rookie performance in 2015. He finished in third place in the American League Rookie of the Year voting and he was named the Twins Most Valuable Player even though he played in less than half of the team's games. He made a tremendous impact but he wasn't the only rookie leaving his mark at the big league level.

 

Eddie Rosario made his debut on May 6, 2015 and spent the rest of the season in the Twins outfield. The former fourth round pick went on to lead all of baseball with 15 triples and he led the American League with 12 outfield assists. He became the 18th rookie since 1901 to reach double digits in homers, triples, doubles, and stolen bases. Also, he's only the ninth player in Twins history to record at least ten homers and ten triples in a season.Rosario's career in the minor leagues might best be described as tumultuous. He burst onto the scene in 2011 by winning the Appalachian League MVP and out- homering Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas. Over the next two seasons, the routine became double-digits in home runs and over 30 doubles. The Twins thought so highly of Rosario they transitioned him to second base, a position of need in the organization at the time.

 

During the 2014 off-season, the hammer fell on Rosario. He was handed a 50-game suspension for a second violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. After returning from the suspension, Rosario hit poorly for the first time in his professional career. The Twins sent him back for a second stint in the Arizona Fall League where his bat started to show some signs of life.

 

Flash-forward to 2015 and Rosario wasn't exactly hitting the cover off the ball when he was called up from Rochester. Through 23 games, he was batting .242/.280/.379 with six extra-base hits. His batting average was almost 50 points lower than his career in the minor leagues and he was getting on base 6% less than his career average.

 

Now, it's weeks away from Rosario reporting to his first spring training where he will enter the year with his name already penciled into a starting job. Some players run into struggles during their second full season at the big league level. There are more advanced scouting reports on players so pitchers have a better idea how to attack a batter. This is where the term "sophomore slump" has been used in baseball circles.

 

Will Rosario be able to break through the sophomore slump and actually be a sophomore stud?

 

Baseball Reference projects Rosario to hit double digits in home runs, triples, and doubles while increasing his batting average and on-base percentage. FanGraphs ZiPS projects have Rosario's batting average dropping over 10 points and his on-base percentage staying around the same point. They also have him combining for 44 extra-base hits which would be two less than the 2015 season in over 50 more plate appearances.

 

After the numbers Rosario put together in his rookie season, it is going to be tough to live up to the offensive bar he set. However, there are some adjustments he can make to avoid slumping in 2016. In every minor league season before his second drug suspension, Rosario got on base over 34% of the time. He also struck out in 19% of his at-bats compared to 26% in his rookie season. If Rosario could improve his walk rate and reduce his strikeout percentage, he might be able to avoid some of the biggest parts of the sophomore slump.

 

One of the things working in Rosario's favor has been the fact that his hit tool was always considered advanced in the minor leagues. His quick wrists and good plate coverage meant that his bat looked MLB ready even if other parts of his game weren't there yet. Because of this advanced approach, Rosario should be able to avoid any long-term slumps at the big league level.

 

Some minor tweaks here and there should make Rosario a solid contributor in his sophomore season and he could surprise a lot of people with his performance.

 

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[tobi0040]

This guy is a keeper. 20 HR 35 2B threat. He had a higher dWar per game than Alex Gordon and almost the same UZR last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I do think he's a long term fixture here, but I suspect that he's going to take some lumps this year.  Hope you're right and I'm wrong here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rosario spends a month or two in AAA.

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins have those same scouting reports on Eddie's 2015 season.  This isn't a big problem.  He just needs to make the adjustments from the rookie free-swinger to a more knowledgeable hitter.

[Boom Boom]

He's never going to walk much, but I think he's got the quick hands and plate coverage to put up a more respectable OBP by striking out less.

[Major League Ready]

I was really high on Rosario after seeing him in the Arizona Fall League Championship and his defense was a breath of fresh air after watching the likes of Willingham and Young in LF.  However, his plate discipline has to get much better.  I drives me crazy when a hitter can't layoff stuff that is not even close to the strike zone.  He is going have to get much better where this is concerned or he is never going to be above average offensively.  The flip side is that if this skill improves. he will be a very valuable piece.  The potential of a Buxton / Kepler / Rosario outfield is really exciting.  How good defensively would that OF be?  We should get a good look at the trio the 2nd half of the season and maybe earlier.

[nicksaviking]

I like Eddie and don't think he'll completely go in the tank this year, but it seems guys with poor OBP are the most prone to regression and slumps. I don't care so much about the strikeouts but 0-20 hitting slumps just don't seem to compound if your still getting on base 3-4 times by drawing a free pass.

[Jham]

 

I was really high on Rosario after seeing him in the Arizona Fall League Championship and his defense was a breath of fresh air after watching the likes of Willingham and Young in LF.  However, his plate discipline has to get much better.  I drives me crazy when a hitter can't layoff stuff that is not even close to the strike zone.  He is going have to get much better where this is concerned or he is never going to be above average offensively.  The flip side is that if this skill improves. he will be a very valuable piece.  The potential of a Buxton / Kepler / Rosario outfield is really exciting.  How good defensively would that OF be?  We should get a good look at the trio the 2nd half of the season and maybe earlier.

Everyone keeps citing his defense.  If we've learned anything about defensive metrics, it's that a season's worth of stats isn't a big enough sample size.  Does anyone remember seeing him try to go back on fly balls?  It was horrible.  Part of this could be made up for by playing deeper and just giving up more singles and first to thirds.  Or moving to right and moving Sano to left.  

I like Rosario a lot.  His game is almost exactly the same as another former fave, Jacque Jones.  Jones was praised for D coming up, leading off and playing center field.  But he was not a premium defensive player.  Neither is Rosario.  I've stated before, his maximum value is at 2nd base.  His max value to the team may well be as trade bait.  His quick wrists would play very well in the AL East for example.  That said, I like watching him play for the Twins.
 

[jorgenswest]

Most hitting, pitching and fielding stats all need more than a single season's sample. The pitch level data and the strike out, walk and maybe ground ball/fly ball rates are useful for projecting based on a single full season. Rosario's poor plate discipline rate's are reason for concern. These are stats that are reliable in a single season. They can improve, but it will take a change in skill.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=5&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

Edited January 23, 2016 by jorgenswest

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

True, Rosario has poor peripherals but he produces. He might have to make a trip back to Rochester for a time. His outfield assists are impacting opponents base running. I feel Rosario is our present and future left fielder and I would be disappointed if the Twins didn't see it that way too (save for a possible injury or demotion at some point)

[cy1time]

As a rookie, he became the ninth Twin in history with double digit homers and triples.  I think that the talk of Rosario going to back to AAA is premature.  I'm not saying it can't happen, but he'd have to be abysmal to get sent down and I don't see that happening.  I hope I'm right.  

[Thegrin]

Here's hoping that Rosario can be a fixture for the Twins in Left Field for the next 15 years.

[jimmer]

I like Rosario, but I'm not sure how Rosario set his offensive bar high last year in the majors.  When you have an OBP under .290, that's hardly a high bar.

[jimmer]

 

He's never going to walk much, but I think he's got the quick hands and plate coverage to put up a more respectable OBP by striking out less.

If those strikeouts become outs of another sort, it doesn't much matter.   Considering he had a BABIP in the .330s and still couldn't score an OBP in the .300s, we could see a bigger dropoff in his OBP if/when his BABIP normalizes.

Edited January 23, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

Jham,

 

I don't think Jones's bat would be a bad thing. He had a career 775 OPS.

 

Time will tell if Rosario is a plus defender in left. I think he will always have plus range relative to others in left. His arm is obviously plus, with 15 assists in Not even a full season.

 

Regarding 2B, any left fielder would have a better bat at 2B. But my understanding is it didn't work out.

[Shane Wahl]

.285/.319/.474 this year.

[Linus]

.285/.319/.474 this year.

Sign me up

[Thrylos]

Here is the problem with Rosario:

 

He really is an isoD .050 player max and 0.42 isoD average.   Which means that he really needs a high BA and BABIP to get on base at respectable clips.   Career OBP:  AA .308, AAA .280, MLB .289.  

 

That said, Last season he was a bit unlucky in the majors because his average BABIP - BA is .039.  Last season with the Twins it was 0.065, so that BA has a good 0.025 or so of positive movement potential.

So that .267/.289/.459  with just career average isoD and isoP  and the same BABIP he hit in 2015 would project to about .308/.350/.467 for an .817 OPS which will probably have him in the top 30 OFs of the majors by OPS next season...

Stud?    Hardly.  Better?   Sure.

Edited January 23, 2016 by Thrylos

[BoomBoom]

 

Sign me up

Me too

 

Everyone assumes that hitters can't make adjustments in the off season and that pitchers are the only ones with scouting reports.  Rosario is a hitter and will be better than last year in many categories and the same in some others.  

[Linus]

Experience is a big factor. Successful big league players learn and get better. We will s=e if that is Eddie.

[dougkoebernick]

I'm high on Rosario. If you look at what he did in the final weeks of the season - extra base hits and driving in runs - that's a good sign in my book. However, I think he got all of one walk in September/October versus 20+ k's. If he can just add a few walks he's going to be incredibly solid. 

[tvagle]

Rosario is a Hitter period!

See ball...Hit ball

Small sample size aside here's a comparison of Rosario and another Free Swinging Twin

 

 

Player 1 added power as he progressed...who's to say Rosario won't bring Whiff's down a bit??

[jorgenswest]

Rosario is a Hitter period!

See ball...Hit ball

Small sample size aside here's a comparison of Rosario and another Free Swinging Twin

 

 

 

Player 1 added power as he progressed...who's to say Rosario won't bring Whiff's down a bit??

I would be more interested in comparing pitch level data like swing rates, contact rates or swing and miss rates for example. The sample isn't small for those numbers to be reliable. Free swinging doesn't have to equate to poor contact or strike zone judgement. Puckett and Oliva were considered to be free swinging. I am sure they had extreme swing rates. I am guessing they matched that with high contact rates in and out of the zone. Rosario has an extreme swing rate, but his rate of contact on pitches out of the zone is below league average. That is a worrisome combination.

[Riverbrian]

If Rosario struggles... I won't care as much as I did when Hicks was struggline because I like the way he plays the game. 

 

He's the type of player who can find a way to help you win even if he struggles at the plate. 

 

You can give him some extended rope to sort through things. 

 

 

[Linus]

If Rosario struggles... I won't care as much as I did when Hicks was struggline because I like the way he plays the game.

 

He's the type of player who can find a way to help you win even if he struggles at the plate.

 

You can give him some extended rope to sort through things.

This is correct. Eddie does lots of things that stats don't always capture.

[Reider]

Rosario is my starting left fielder in 2016. I'm not too worried about him. There might be some bumps in the road at the plate, but then again, he's the kind of guy who could be struggling, then all of a sudden hit a triple. Part of the reason why I don't worry about him as much as other younger players is because he appears to play with a lot of confidence.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Reider

[Mike Sixel]

I think Rosario can be a legit MLB OF. 

 

As for sophomore slumps, that is a stupid article (and it admits so), since it looks at rookies of the year. Those performances are, as the article states, already outliers. What I'd like is an actual study that looks at every rookie, and see how they do the 2nd year. That would be a meaningful study.

[tvagle]

 

...Puckett and Oliva were considered to be free swinging. I am sure they had extreme swing rates. I am guessing they matched that with high contact rates in and out of the zone. Rosario has an extreme swing rate, but his rate of contact on pitches out of the zone is below league average. That is a worrisome combination.

 

 

Player 1 is the Puckster and he turned out alright...I'm sure I could pull Marty Cordova's stats and show a similar comparison that didn't work out as well...the point is we just don't know and Rosario has shown a lot of other tools that indicate better than replacement value and that would be a big change over the past few years in the OF

 

Not to agitate the stat-heads but one thing has and will always be true "Speed doesn't slump"

[DocBauer]

Here is the problem with Rosario:

 

He really is an isoD .050 player max and 0.42 isoD average. Which means that he really needs a high BA and BABIP to get on base at respectable clips. Career OBP: AA .308, AAA .280, MLB .289.

 

That said, Last season he was a bit unlucky in the majors because his average BABIP - BA is .039. Last season with the Twins it was 0.065, so that BA has a good 0.025 or so of positive movement potential.

So that .267/.289/.459 with just career average isoD and isoP and the same BABIP he hit in 2015 would project to about .308/.350/.467 for an .817 OPS which will probably have him in the top 30 OFs of the majors by OPS next season...

Stud? Hardly. Better? Sure.

OK, but that is painting a limited picture isn't it? His AAA experience consists of 23 games. The season before that was 50 games short following his suspension, and he never seemed to get on track. His AA experience in 2013, 70 games, he hit .284 with a .330 OB. The first 52 games of 2013 was in Ft Myers where he hit .329 with a .377 OB. 2012 was spent almost exclusively at Beloit where he was .296 & .345. 2011 and 2010, Elizabethton preceeded by time in the GCL, his numbers were .337/.397 after .294/.343 in his debut.

 

So what does this mean? Isn't everything supposed to get harder as you move up the ladder? Yep. But the player is also expected to adjust and improve as well. So in his first 4 seasons Rosario hit, then hit some more, and always had an OB at least 46 points higher than his BA. He hit at AA, and didn't stumble until the 50 game suspension that seemed to screw him up. He flashed in the AFL, flashed in ST, then jumped to the majors and stuck after only 23 AAA games.

[Steve Penz]

How possible is it that effort to improve his plate discipline detracts from his production? Don't make him passive at the plate.