The stock market

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on 60 minutes. Lots of mixed messages, just like the stock markets

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-economy-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-chairman-60-minutes/?__twitter_impression=true#app

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on 60 minutes. Lots of mixed messages, just like the stock markets

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-economy-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-chairman-60-minutes/?__twitter_impression=true#app

Yeah, I keep seeing things I missed but I have no idea what to do right now. All this unemployment, significant chance of a second wave, election year craziness. And the market is rocking? I've talked to some investment guys and they don't know. One guy thinks everything is ok but most everyone else says it's crazy. I dunno. I've definitely missed out on some buying opportunities but my wife and I will just continue to hoard cash for a bit. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yeah, I keep seeing things I missed but I have no idea what to do right now. All this unemployment, significant chance of a second wave, election year craziness. And the market is rocking? I've talked to some investment guys and they don't know. One guy thinks everything is ok but most everyone else says it's crazy. I dunno. I've definitely missed out on some buying opportunities but my wife and I will just continue to hoard cash for a bit.

ive been hoarding cash too. I’m on the fence of the markets aren’t reflecting the economy but at some point will.

[Killer 3]

Bought bitcoin when it was down to 3900 a coin. Reached up to a little over 10 grand and sold out. Easy money. Keeping my eye on it to see if crashes again then buy again

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, investment "experts" thought the market was over valued historically BEFORE 20 million people lost their jobs.....so I am unsure what to think at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Bought bitcoin when it was down to 3900 a coin. Reached up to a little over 10 grand and sold out. Easy money. Keeping my eye on it to see if crashes again then buy again

 

Well done! I did that a few years ago, day traded litecoin for a bit. I started too late to make huge money, but made money....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I mean, investment "experts" thought the market was over valued historically BEFORE 20 million people lost their jobs.....so I am unsure what to think at this point.

Right? This is ridiculous. 

 

But it should be a very clear message that the market has only a loose correlation to the actual economy.

[Mike Sixel]

Thank you DAL for going up so much today. Mortgage paid.....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thank you DAL for going up so much today. Mortgage paid.....

good for you! But I am perplexed.... they back out of buying 4 LATAM A350s, but are still in on the JV even w/ LATAM filing for bankruptcy and buying 10 future, while shrinking their own fleet ... and it raises 13.5% today?

 

Is Delta taking over LATAM?

[Mike Sixel]

good for you! But I am perplexed.... they back out of buying 4 LATAM A350s, but are still in on the JV even w/ LATAM filing for bankruptcy and buying 10 future, while shrinking their own fleet ... and it raises 13.5% today?

 

Is Delta taking over LATAM?

Gamblers don't ask why they won a hand, they just take their money.....

[gunnarthor]

I'm glad you did well! 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I managed to buy two stocks that have gone down the last two days.....so not all day trading works for me....good reminder!

[AlwaysinModeration]

All of the stocks I am keeping tabs on have risen massively since mid March. Seems like the market isn’t bothered by the virus. Is there any logic here, or is there going to be a second big drop?

[gunnarthor]

Man, if I knew  ...

 

I think there will be a pretty big correction and the market will come down significantly but I could be completely wrong. But it seems like we are doing about as much wrong on covid-19 as we can, that investors will get spooked during election season, that federal efforts to keep the stock market high are temporary measures that don't address the underlying problems.

 

We've been hoarding cash since March and aren't planning on making any large buys until after November. But keep in mind, I panicked and sold shopify so I know nothing. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It’s a good reminder that the stock market is not the economy.

 

I would think at some point the broader economy will impact investors decisions, but the vast majority of stock is held by institutional investors. When your metric is no longer the traditional long term investment metrics, but being able to transact faster than other institutions, logic gets cloudy, and day trading gets harder.

 

I too am hoarding cash, but I never sold off. Because my horizon is far enough off that I can recover a couple bad years, I’m sitting tight.

[bunsen82]

There is too much money in a handful of stocks, that bubble will burst, at the same time there will be some massive money made in newer companies that are going to be well equipped to make really good money in the future.  I am almost exclusively in hard asset stocks and leaning towards commodity stocks, silver and natural gas stocks being my primary investment.  We are over halfway done with injection season for natural gas, which appears to have found a bottom, and will begin a continual rise up.  Supply is down drastically and it takes over 6 months to drill and see the returns in increased supply.  The stocks in general have been beat up and have extremely low valuations, and there should be minimal correlation between the rest of the stock market which I don't trust, and natural gas stocks.  I also see the dollar going down, so silver and natural gas should really benefit in those environments. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There is too much money in a handful of stocks, that bubble will burst, at the same time there will be some massive money made in newer companies that are going to be well equipped to make really good money in the future. I am almost exclusively in hard asset stocks and leaning towards commodity stocks, silver and natural gas stocks being my primary investment. We are over halfway done with injection season for natural gas, which appears to have found a bottom, and will begin a continual rise up. Supply is down drastically and it takes over 6 months to drill and see the returns in increased supply. The stocks in general have been beat up and have extremely low valuations, and there should be minimal correlation between the rest of the stock market which I don't trust, and natural gas stocks. I also see the dollar going down, so silver and natural gas should really benefit in those environments.

This is a really good blog that backs up your assertion of too much money tied into too few stocks:

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/11/wild-ride-to-nowhere-appl-msft-amzn-goog-and-fb-soar-to-new-high-rest-of-the-stock-market-is-a-dud-has-been-for-years/

[gunnarthor]

Apple's 4-1 stock split reorganizes the Dow. Exxon is kicked out - it had been in the dow for 92 years. Back in January I bought Exxon for my IRA because it just hit a 10 year low in case anyone wants to follow my stock picking advice.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/shakeup-dow-industrials-exxon-out-5075621?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo

[gunnarthor]

Stock market soaring on the news of Biden's win. Reaches all-time high. The last nine months have convinced me that I will never understand the market. 

[Mike Sixel]

Basically for the past 4 months.....

 

I identified 10-20 stocks I like, a lot. Love even. Or, at least the market does. I've bought on dips (as long as there is no news about THAT stock to explain it), and I've sold at 5% profit. This is money dedicated to this effort. I don't recommend this as a strategy for most / anyone else.....but it has worked VERY WELL this year. 

 

That's the kind of thing to do with maybe 10% of your portfolio.....the rest should be in long term plays. IMO, of course.

 

As for the "too much money in too few stocks" rubbish. There is plenty of money flowing into the market, across plenty of stocks. There is no bad time to buy, if you have time on your side.

[ashbury]

Stock market soaring on the news of Biden's win. Reaches all-time high. The last nine months have convinced me that I will never understand the market. 

News regarding a couple of vaccines might have more to do with today's jump. Very hard to separate signal from noise, let alone signal from other signal.

[Mike Sixel]

Not that I'd ever tell anyone what to do, but I'll type a name here for a random reason.

 

Fiverr.....

[gunnarthor]

 

Not that I'd ever tell anyone what to do, but I'll type a name here for a random reason.

 

Fiverr.....

I've had pfizer in my IRA for a few years now, mostly b/c of the dividend reinvestment (I love dividends). It hasn't been a great stock, really, but it's a decent enough longterm stock that I'm not worried about it either. (Just a random note, but my wife has held Coke in her IRA for a five years now and man, does that dividend reinvestment work).

 

I'm way over exposed to big banks (WFC, USB) which hurt a bit although the little I have in tech (MSFT, ROKU) this year offset that. We now have a pretty big cash pile - roughly 20% of our holdings - so we will probably make a few big buys in a while. I'm sure one will be a conservative index fund but I'm not sure about the other. We don't own Apple or Amazon, for instance, but danged if I can figure out if this is a good jump in point. A week ago, I was ready to jump in on MC but I waited too long. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I've had pfizer in my IRA for a few years now, mostly b/c of the dividend reinvestment (I love dividends). It hasn't been a great stock, really, but it's a decent enough longterm stock that I'm not worried about it either. (Just a random note, but my wife has held Coke in her IRA for a five years now and man, does that dividend reinvestment work).

 

I'm way over exposed to big banks (WFC, USB) which hurt a bit although the little I have in tech (MSFT, ROKU) this year offset that. We now have a pretty big cash pile - roughly 20% of our holdings - so we will probably make a few big buys in a while. I'm sure one will be a conservative index fund but I'm not sure about the other. We don't own Apple or Amazon, for instance, but danged if I can figure out if this is a good jump in point. A week ago, I was ready to jump in on MC but I waited too long. 

 

not pfizer.....fiverr, which continues to plummet.....

[gunnarthor]

 

not pfizer.....fiverr, which continues to plummet.....

Oh, I thought you were going with a phonetic thing. 

[Mike Sixel]

Twelve percent today... Hope you bought it

[gunnarthor]

 

Twelve percent today... Hope you bought it

I did. Thank you. Bought a little bit of SNAP as well.

[danunti]

I've been on the Fiverr train for a while along with SQ. Any other favorites you'd like to share?

[Mike Sixel]

I like:

 

Okta

New Relic

Shopify

Activision Blizzard

Amazon

Apple

Square

Slack

Zoom (still like them)

Pinterest

 

I pretty much like anything that helps with the cloud / internet, remote work, etc. I am TECH HEAVY,

[danunti]

I'm also pretty tech heavy (probably a little more than I'm comfortable with). Of the ones you mentioned, I also have:

 

Activision

Apple

Square

Slack

Pinterest

 

I really wish I'd gotten in on Shopify when you all were talking about it on this board last year.

 

I've been dipping my toe into some hospitality names thinking that they'll rebound after the vaccine.  Could be a good buy low time.