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gunnarthor

By gunnarthor
in The Sports Bar

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Brock Beauchamp
Brock Beauchamp

High fives, Mike. I'm in on Disney, Netflix, and Amazon. Amazon and Netflix in particular.   Patience is really the key with the market, IMO. I sat on a stagnant Amazon around $300 per share for over

Willihammer
Willihammer

I tend to side with Mike but could see selling too. Heard this market described as a "hated rally." The real question to me is what do you mean you're not working? TD just had 100,000 page views and d

LaBombo
LaBombo

Several fund managers are high on it.

  • 4 weeks later...
Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted (edited)

Welp, after all my skeptcism and trashing of AAPL, it just continues to roll. I did a little research on cash flows and unsurprisingly its still a strong value. AAPL is valued at 15x FCF over the TTM. For reference SSNLF (Samsung) is at 17x, MSFT is at 18x, GOOGLE: 24x, FB: 35x, AMZN: 54x (some of these are better comps than others obviously). So yeah, lesson learned. I'm back in at $148.91.

Edited by Willihammer
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  • 2 months later...
Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Yeah, it's getting hit pretty hard. Over 20% in two days, or so. uff-da. Short sellers suck. If I had cash on hand, I'd probably buy some more at 90 but I don't.

 

I'm thinking about selling some other stuff (in my retirement account), and buying a bunch......but not sure yet.

 

And yes, I manage one of my retirement accounts with stocks (and funds)....

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  • 3 weeks later...
Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Posted
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I'm thinking about selling some other stuff (in my retirement account), and buying a bunch......but not sure yet.

 

And yes, I manage one of my retirement accounts with stocks (and funds)....

 

Yes, this worked out very well so far......

 

Also, Celgene was just BLOWN UP for missing on a drug.......but I don't think 35% of it's value was in that one drug. If you like to bet money, I think this is a decent short term bet. Had I moved faster this afternoon, I would have made 4-5% today alone......That said, this is NOT advice, let alone good advice.....it's just what I'm likely to do tomorrow with a few K.

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  • 3 weeks later...
biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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I know it's a safe boring stock but we bought John Deere a couple years ago and it's been a really good stock - strongly out performing the S&P and giving back some nice dividends as well. It won't blow up in a good way like some tech stocks but it's got a pretty strong moat.

 

One of the better ones out there. My brother is a salesman and could tell you all the stuff the company is doing around the world to grow their market share.

 

In most countries around the world, if you ask a rural child to draw a tractor and then to "color it", they will choose green, and that's akin to Coke or McDonalds in world reach, even if a lot of people never see the brand in use.

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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One of the better ones out there. My brother is a salesman and could tell you all the stuff the company is doing around the world to grow their market share.

 

In most countries around the world, if you ask a rural child to draw a tractor and then to "color it", they will choose green, and that's akin to Coke or McDonalds in world reach, even if a lot of people never see the brand in use.

Yep, in law school trademarks class we learned about how Deere trademarked its colors. Pretty interesting case reading, as those things go. 

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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On the stock front, I'm quite happy I sold my $50k and paid off my house. Almost all my stocks stayed somewhat flat for over two months so no worries there.

 

But the one stock I debated holding on to, Square, has blown the **** up. I should have sold my wife's Medtronic instead of that but she has some kind of weird emotional bond with that stock and I didn't have the energy to fight over it.

 

I mean, ****. Square is over 4x what I paid for it.

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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On the stock front, I'm quite happy I sold my $50k and paid off my house. Almost all my stocks stayed somewhat flat for over two months so no worries there.

 

But the one stock I debated holding on to, Square, has blown the **** up. I should have sold my wife's Medtronic instead of that but she has some kind of weird emotional bond with that stock and I didn't have the energy to fight over it.

 

I mean, ****. Square is over 4x what I paid for it.

Dude, you'll go crazy if you think of the things you should have bought. Just have a solid longterm plan.  Fund your IRAs every year, if your employer gives you a matching 401k, max it out. Make sure you have some safe stocks and/or index funds as part of your portfolio.*

 

Speaking of safe and boring, my wife added $5500 of Microsoft to her IRA yesterday. 

 

* Not an investment professional, just some idiot on a baseball website. 

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Dude, you'll go crazy if you think of the things you should have bought. Just have a solid longterm plan.  Fund your IRAs every year, if your employer gives you a matching 401k, max it out. Make sure you have some safe stocks and/or index funds as part of your portfolio.*

 

Speaking of safe and boring, my wife added $5500 of Microsoft to her IRA yesterday. 

 

* Not an investment professional, just some idiot on a baseball website. 

I definitely have a plan, I just needed some financial security while raising a child so I paid off the mortgage and dropped my stock portfolio. My wife is still contributing to her 401k and we'll raise her percentage in the next calendar year.

 

Ultimately, I expect the market to sag in the coming years and I plan to have at least $10k to jump back in when it happens. Tech stocks (my forte) are so completely off the rails in P/E that they'll HAVE to stabilize at some point, probably even drop (most of them, anyway). That's when I plan to re-enter the market.

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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Posted
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I definitely have a plan, I just needed some financial security while raising a child so I paid off the mortgage and dropped my stock portfolio. My wife is still contributing to her 401k and we'll raise her percentage in the next calendar year.

 

Ultimately, I expect the market to sag in the coming years and I plan to have at least $10k to jump back in when it happens. Tech stocks (my forte) are so completely off the rails in P/E that they'll HAVE to stabilize at some point, probably even drop (most of them, anyway). That's when I plan to re-enter the market.

I did that, back in the tech bubble of 2000. Got out when the valuations became too rich for me, gnashed my teeth as prices went up another 25%, felt vindicated when prices eventually declined and even went below the level when I had sold, got in more heavily than ever at a certain point, and proceeded to absorb yet another 25%-or-so downturn.

 

Market timing can be right and still be wrong - if the market becomes brutal.

 

My advice to my former self would be to wait, in an overheated market, for the top to be manifested by an actual downturn. There's a lot of money to be made during irrational exuberance. Calling a market bottom, in the same vein, probably is best left to the experts, and missing out on the very early weeks of the next bull market isn't the end of the world. Dollar cost averaging, rather than all-out then all-in, might be a decent strategy during the uncertainty.

 

Regarding the rest of your message, I've told you before I like your general plan.

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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I did that, back in the tech bubble of 2000. Got out when the valuations became too rich for me, gnashed my teeth as prices went up another 25%, felt vindicated when prices eventually declined and even went below the level when I had sold, got in more heavily than ever at a certain point, and proceeded to absorb yet another 25%-or-so downturn.

 

Market timing can be right and still be wrong - if the market becomes brutal.

 

My advice to my former self would be to wait, in an overheated market, for the top to be manifested by an actual downturn. There's a lot of money to be made during irrational exuberance. Calling a market bottom, in the same vein, probably is best left to the experts, and missing out on the very early weeks of the next bull market isn't the end of the world. Dollar cost averaging, rather than all-out then all-in, might be a decent strategy during the uncertainty.

 

Regarding the rest of your message, I've told you before I like your general plan.

Yeah, I had zero expectation of timing this perfectly. My primary goal is to get out high and get back in lower. The degree in which that happens will determine the level of success but it's a pretty reasonable goal to pursue, IMO.

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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My primary goal is to get out high and get back in lower.

I'm repeating myself if I say that that was my plan at Y2K too. I got out and in at the two red markings. Looks kind of good, but I left a lot on the table percentagewise at the cash-out, and because I allocated more aggressively when going back in, the final gut-wrench was more painful than it looks.

 

post-13-0-39546900-1511390530.jpg

 

Better luck to you. :)

 

 

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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I'm repeating myself if I say that that was my plan at Y2K too. Better luck to you. :)

I should slightly rephrase: I want to sell high and buy again somewhat low. :D

 

I don't expect to necessarily get the stocks back for less than I sold them for, but that'd be nice. It's also probably unreasonable to expect it. I'd be thrilled to buy back a bunch of them at the same price or even a touch higher, allowing myself to do something else with the money for 3-5 years.

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glunn Wichita Wind Surge

glunn

Community Moderator
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I'm repeating myself if I say that that was my plan at Y2K too. I got out and in at the two red markings. Looks kind of good, but I left a lot on the table percentagewise at the cash-out, and because I allocated more aggressively when going back in, the final gut-wrench was more painful than it looks.

 

attachicon.gifnasdaq.jpg

 

Better luck to you. :)

You should be glad that you did not get out in time. No one can time the market.

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