The stock market

[Mike Sixel]

 

Considering NVIDIA and Shopify, I'm not sure you should be complaining.  

 

Just got more spam from the motley fool. Somehow workday is in the "final 8" for the future of internet type stocks, and Shopify isn't. Mind. Boggling. don't get me wrong, I like workday, but it isn't Shopify.

 

and yes, even since I put more into Shop, it's gone up and up. I admit, this is largely luck.

[Willihammer]

NVDA good grief.

[Mike Sixel]

 

NVDA good grief.

 

Until someone builds better chips......

 

Wish I had just bet it all there last year, instead of A LOT on it.....

[DaveW]

 

Until someone builds better chips......

 

Wish I had just bet it all there last year, instead of A LOT on it.....

This makes me feel better, I sold too early on some of my bitcoin, I put that into Berkshire...and more Nvidia!

[Mike Sixel]

For a few months now, I've been considering being super active in 1 of my retirement accounts.

 

Betting, say, 50K on one stock the day before an earnings announcement, then selling it the next day, and re-diversifying. Had I done that, I'd have quite a bit more money right now. So far, I've been right 4 of 5 times I've thought about it. And, since there are no tax consequences.....but, then I recall that no one can really do this and win in the long run. So, I don't. But I feel a bit emboldened right now....

 

talk me out of being stupid.

[Willihammer]

 

For a few months now, I've been considering being super active in 1 of my retirement accounts.

 

Betting, say, 50K on one stock the day before an earnings announcement, then selling it the next day, and re-diversifying. Had I done that, I'd have quite a bit more money right now. So far, I've been right 4 of 5 times I've thought about it. And, since there are no tax consequences.....but, then I recall that no one can really do this and win in the long run. So, I don't. But I feel a bit emboldened right now....

 

talk me out of being stupid.

"Past results do not guarantee future performance."

[gunnarthor]

 

For a few months now, I've been considering being super active in 1 of my retirement accounts.

 

Betting, say, 50K on one stock the day before an earnings announcement, then selling it the next day, and re-diversifying. Had I done that, I'd have quite a bit more money right now. So far, I've been right 4 of 5 times I've thought about it. And, since there are no tax consequences.....but, then I recall that no one can really do this and win in the long run. So, I don't. But I feel a bit emboldened right now....

 

talk me out of being stupid.

In all honesty, it's extremely stupid. Unless you know more than what normal, "Motley Fool" readers or Barron subscribers know, you're making a pretty big risk. And I think you're older than me so you should be a bit more conservative with the money. You'll need it when Trump destroys our social security/medicaid/health care.

[Mike Sixel]

 

In all honesty, it's extremely stupid. Unless you know more than what normal, "Motley Fool" readers or Barron subscribers know, you're making a pretty big risk. And I think you're older than me so you should be a bit more conservative with the money. You'll need it when Trump destroys our social security/medicaid/health care.

 

thanks, and I know it's stupid. And yes, I have rolled back to slightly more conservative in a few spots.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you want something relatively conservative that I think will show substantial growth, I still recommend Square. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see their shares over $30, maybe even $40, at this time next year.

 

I thought they'd stall out a bit after the holiday quarter (-$.04 per share) but they held steady in the first quarter (-$.03 per share). In my mind, that shows impressive growth from a company that deals in payment processing. I expect the 2017 holiday quarter to put them in the black, which should cause the stock to skyrocket (currently sitting around $19.50).

 

I got into them around $12/share and then doubled down when they dipped to $10/share awhile back.

[Mike Sixel]

Brock on square.

 

Dave on bitcoin.

 

Mike on Shopify and Nvidia.

 

Did I get them all?

 

btw, I also like Activision and GM and Tesla. GM for the dividends, Activision because they just keep making money, and Tesla because they are more than a car company.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock on square.

 

Dave on bitcoin.

 

Mike on Shopify and Nvidia.

 

Did I get them all?

 

btw, I also like Activision and GM and Tesla. GM for the dividends, Activision because they just keep making money, and Tesla because they are more than a car company.

I'm in on GM and Tesla. GM for the dividends, Tesla because, as you said, they do more than cars.

 

The reason I'm suggesting Square is because their last two quarters have shown me that they're going to be profitable unless the economy tanks. I think they're relatively low risk right now. Something would have to go disastrously wrong for them to fade and I can't really think of anything they could do to cause that disaster themselves.

 

I think the stigma of Jack Dorsey is hurting the company simply because Twitter is floundering. That doesn't really matter to me, as the two businesses couldn't be more different and Twitter's own business model is the problem, not Dorsey (and there's no easy way to fix Twitter's problems, as they're baked into what makes it appealing to some people).

[Willihammer]

I looked into SQ on your recommendation Brock but top line growth in the last qtr. looked pretty lackluster for a growth company. Is that temporary?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I looked into SQ on your recommendation Brock but top line growth in the last qtr. looked pretty lackluster for a growth company. Is that temporary?

Are you comparing quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year? I believe their YoY growth was over 20%.

 

Quarter over quarter doesn't really work for them, as they process payments. The holiday quarter is always going to be out of line with other quarters.

 

Anyway, I expect Square to be something of a slow burn. Payment processing isn't the type of market that is going to radically shift in a few quarters. What I'm looking for with Square is profitability, which I expect in the coming year. That alone should jump the stock price quite a bit, as many questioned if they would ever be profitable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The reason I'm so bullish on Square is because they're one of the tech companies that filled a hole I recognized as a problem: payment processing.

 

Current payment processing tech is laughably bad; it's mired in thinking that prevailed through the 80s and 90s with virtually no movement spurred from within the industry. Any changes to processing has come from the user end with Apple/Android Pay. Setting up a payment processing system for a business was a painstaking, expensive process where they gouged you for thousands of dollars of hardware, put ridiculous limitations on how you receive/transfer the money, and then only paid you when they damned well felt like it (often 30 or 45 days).

 

Square blew that up. You use a free dongle on a phone or tablet or "upgrade" to a wireless reader for a whopping $50. Then you just swipe any and all credit cards and Square drops the money in your bank the next day, minus the small 2.9% fee they take off the top.

 

It's the type of service that when I see a small business using something other than Square, I wonder what the hell is wrong with them.

[Mike Sixel]

We use square in our business....

[Mike Sixel]

ha!

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/09/better-buy-shopify-inc-us-vs-square-inc.aspx

 

I have not read this....but here is one person's thoughts!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

ha!

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/09/better-buy-shopify-inc-us-vs-square-inc.aspx

 

I have not read this....but here is one person's thoughts!

Saw that the other day. I'm not convinced Shopify is the better buy today but a year ago it certainly was. Shopify has already seen substantial growth and I'm not sure how much it has left in it growth-wise, at least over the mid-term.

 

Still not sure how Shopify flew so completely under my radar for so long.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Saw that the other day. I'm not convinced Shopify is the better buy today but a year ago it certainly was. Shopify has already seen substantial growth and I'm not sure how much it has left in it growth-wise, at least over the mid-term.

 

Still not sure how Shopify flew so completely under my radar for so long.

 

I don't know, but I love Shopify's moat. That's my favorite part of them, and their mgmt seems to be smart.

[Willihammer]

 

Are you comparing quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year? I believe their YoY growth was over 20%.

 

Quarter over quarter doesn't really work for them, as they process payments. The holiday quarter is always going to be out of line with other quarters.

 

Anyway, I expect Square to be something of a slow burn. Payment processing isn't the type of market that is going to radically shift in a few quarters. What I'm looking for with Square is profitability, which I expect in the coming year. That alone should jump the stock price quite a bit, as many questioned if they would ever be profitable.

Fair enough. Not knowing anything about the business, that's the first thing I'm looking for. Looks like Q4 didn't get much of a bump over Q3 either. Q2 did though so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm gonna stay on the sidelines so probably the price will shoot to the moon over the next 12 months just like SHOP, NVDA, etc every other stock I haven't bought.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fair enough. Not knowing anything about the business, that's the first thing I'm looking for. Looks like Q4 didn't get much of a bump over Q3 either. Q2 did though so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm gonna stay on the sidelines so probably the price will shoot to the moon over the next 12 months just like SHOP, NVDA, etc every other stock I haven't bought.

 

buying stocks is stupid. Buy funds. Nonetheless, I persist....

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fair enough. Not knowing anything about the business, that's the first thing I'm looking for. Looks like Q4 didn't get much of a bump over Q3 either. Q2 did though so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

I'd have to look into it but that could be due to their expiring deal with Starbucks, where they got absolutely hosed and lost money. Square kinda retooled their business model at that point, realizing they're not going to get into massive enterprise solutions. They've been pushing more at small- and mid-sized businesses, expanding into pre-payment options based on past revenue and actual business lending.

 

Enterprises like Starbucks can afford to negotiate extremely good deals with processing companies. I think Square's wheelhouse is in smaller markets where the current processing market is basically extorting businesses. I believe Square realizes that now and is pushing in that direction.

 

Personally, I don't know where I'd be without Square. In the month of May, I'll process about $1500 through their service. That's an extremely high month for me (convention season) but that kind of market is where Square is booming. Paypal made a half-assed attempt to enter that market but they're Paypal (ie. they're bastards). Their processing system tries its best to keep all your money in the Paypal ecosystem, which is absolute ****.

[Mike Sixel]

I think Shopify just introduced a square competitor.....or maybe not, it might only be for their PoS system now that I think about it.

 

btw, that Shopify website? I'll be mining it to help my wife's small business. It has a ton of advice for small business.

 

Brock, congrats on the good month. With your ability to write off gas/food/etc, you are probably not paying taxes, but making cash flow. Perfect! I still think there is a market for you on DDMGuild.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock, congrats on the good month. With your ability to write off gas/food/etc, you are probably not paying taxes, but making cash flow. Perfect! I still think there is a market for you on DDMGuild.....

Yeah, it has turned out to be a good month. I barely stayed ahead on my KC trip but once mileage was factored in, that made nearly half of last week's Minneapolis convention tax-free. Love that mileage deduction.

 

I'll touch base with you soon on your recommendation. I have a few commissions to get through in the coming weeks (and another convention in eight days) but once that's clear, I'll have more free time through June.

[Mike Sixel]

Not nervous yet, but this could be what some of us feared.....not betting on it, but watching it this week.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I don't think any of our positions are in danger, long term, so we're going to ride it out but hold onto our cash a bit longer.  I'm kicking around selling Shopify since I doubled my money in six months but I'll probably let it ride, too. There might be some good buy positions in a few months. If I was more of a gambler, I might short a few things but I'm not, so I won't.

[DaveW]

One company I can't plug enough is betterment. Signed up with them late last year and have given me a 14.2% return thus far on my 90% stocks 10% bonds and an 8.5% on my 70/30.

 

Fees beat all their competitors as well, if interested I can send a link (and it gets me no fees for 6 months as well as you)

[Mike Sixel]

 

One company I can't plug enough is betterment. Signed up with them late last year and have given me a 14.2% return thus far on my 90% stocks 10% bonds and an 8.5% on my 70/30.

Fees beat all their competitors as well, if interested I can send a link (and it gets me no fees for 6 months as well as you)

 

PM me, of course...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ouch. My entire portfolio was hammered today, losing nearly 3%.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmm....all this news....i may bail on part of my portfolio.

[glunn]

 

 If I was more of a gambler, I might short a few things but I'm not, so I won't.

You might want to consider covered calls as a relatively safe way to hedge your risk, if you are willing to give up some upside.