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gunnarthor

By gunnarthor
in The Sports Bar

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Brock Beauchamp
Brock Beauchamp

High fives, Mike. I'm in on Disney, Netflix, and Amazon. Amazon and Netflix in particular.   Patience is really the key with the market, IMO. I sat on a stagnant Amazon around $300 per share for over

Willihammer
Willihammer

I tend to side with Mike but could see selling too. Heard this market described as a "hated rally." The real question to me is what do you mean you're not working? TD just had 100,000 page views and d

LaBombo
LaBombo

Several fund managers are high on it.

Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

Heh, I just sold some stuff in my retirement accounts (I manage them) and bought Goog, FB, and Amzn. 

 

I still, somehow, believe in the future of tech....

 

I did not go TSLA, as they are way too dependent on their leader, imo.

Musk has about 900 different ventures going on and I do worry about how much time he is or isn't devoting to TSLA. But I have 100% confidence in him, the man has vision and aims incredibly high. He is Steve Jobs 2.0 IMO.

 

TSLA is down and GM is up. The market likes gas prices to stay low, due to a strong dollar and pro-shale policies keeping the supply glut up. That will be good for GM's SUVs. TSLA is taking a hit, good time to get in. Gas prices are a secondary concern for its target market.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Posted
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Musk has about 900 different ventures going on and I do worry about how much time he is or isn't devoting to TSLA. But I have 100% confidence in him, the man has vision and aims incredibly high. He is Steve Jobs 2.0 IMO.

 

TSLA is down and GM is up. The market likes gas prices to stay low, due to a strong dollar and pro-shale policies keeping the supply glut up. That will be good for GM's SUVs. TSLA is taking a hit, good time to get in. Gas prices are a secondary concern for its target market.

 

I own some TSLA, I just worry Musk IS TSLA, and I'm in for the long run on these investments....

 

And, I have thought about getting in further, just haven't.

 

I own GM (just sold all my Ford today)....

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Another note of worry on TSLA is that they were (arguably) somewhat dependent on tax credits and rebates for solar power that a Trump presidency might not continue.  

 

True, but if they can keep up with the demand for cars, and build great batteries, that is a nit...

Edited by Mike Sixel
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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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I am going through every item in my portfolio and selling/trimming with the expectation of a potential recession. 

 

You might want to wait a bit......

 

But, I do agree.

 

1. We are overdue

2. We are overdue for market correction

3. Massive tax cuts, no real spending cuts=massive deficits

4. Rising interest rates

5. Fear

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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Why do you think there will be a recession?

Mike hit on the smart points but does the economy really feel that secure to anyone?  These last few years, I've been very surprised by how well the stock market has been doing vs. how I feel the economy should be doing.  I think the economy should take a hit.*

 

* Again, I'm just some idiot on the internet.  

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

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Posted
Posted

I'd still like to hear what Glunn has to say but regarding the above:

 

GDP grew 2.9% last quarter, the highest of Obama's administration.

Inflation is still really low.

Running deficits in a near ZIRP environment is not a huge deal, and it can be an economic stimulus.

"We're overdue" I disagree. If anything we're overdue for >3% growth which has been the historical norm.

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Administrator
Posted
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I don't know whether we'll see a legit recession but I know someone who works in purchasing at a major retailer and their sales slumped almost to the minute with election results. The company is worried that it could extend through the holiday season and a soft holiday could really damage retailers, many of which are already on shaky ground.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Posted
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I'd still like to hear what Glunn has to say but regarding the above:

 

GDP grew 2.9% last quarter, the highest of Obama's administration.

Inflation is still really low.

Running deficits in a near ZIRP environment is not a huge deal, and it can be an economic stimulus.

"We're overdue" I disagree. If anything we're overdue for >3% growth which has been the historical norm.

 

We are WAAAAAAAAAAY overdue for a market correction....not sure about a recession per se.

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

In the short term the #1 thing I would keep an eye on is inflation. We are going to get a rate hike at the Dec meeting of 1/4 percent - that's already been priced in. If the Fed were to raise rates 1/2% or higher it would shake the markets a bit, but the Fed would only do that because of higher than expected inflation. But reports such as this one suggest inflationary pressure is still low.

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glunn Wichita Wind Surge

glunn

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

 

You might want to wait a bit......

 

But, I do agree.

 

1. We are overdue

2. We are overdue for market correction

3. Massive tax cuts, no real spending cuts=massive deficits

4. Rising interest rates

5. Fear

These are the reasons that I am apprehensive about a recession, especially the fact that it seems overdue. I would add that the fundamentals seem weak to me and there is huge political uncertainty in the United States and Europe.

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
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These are the reasons that I am apprehensive about a recession, especially the fact that it seems overdue. I would add that the fundamentals seem weak to me and there is huge political uncertainty in the United States and Europe.

You gotta do what you gotta do but I'd be curious to know what exactly in the fundamentals has you worried.

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Ah. Yeah it is high but (I know I sound like a broken record) with interest rates historically low, we should expect that to be the case.

 

This article does a good job describing the correlation between P/E and interest rates:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-interest-rates-affect-markets-222845806.html

 

This is the tl;dr:

 

s the market overvalued based on an absolute historical basis? Absolutely. Is the market overvalued given current ultra-low interest rates? No. It is trading around fair value, and possibly a bit lower.

 

Edited by Willihammer
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