The stock market

[Brock Beauchamp]

I got hit hard during the bank fallout. Really, really hard. I had just left California with plans to resettle in either Milwaukee or Minneapolis and the banks crashed literally ten days after I moved.

 

Since that time, I've been extremely debt-wary. My wife and I could have afforded a house three times more expensive than the one we bought. I sold my car earlier this year. We paid off my wife's car three years ago. I expect to have my (cheap) house paid off entirely about ten years after we bought it (five more years to go on that). We carry zero credit card debt month-over-month (though we charge everything possible to credit cards for miles and rewards).

 

So, yeah, I understand your point. I'm terrified of debt after getting royally screwed during the bank fallout. I was broke and unemployed for 18 months and swore that would never, ever happen to me again. Losing everything and starting over at age 32 is a bitter pill to swallow and changes one's outlook.

[Willihammer]

Yeah my gains aren't that good. I made some rookie mistakes when I first started ~2 years ago, leveraged ETFs and penny stocks, stuff like that. Watched my hard earned cash turn to dust. But have built a base of some index funds that more or less mirror the S&P since then.

 

If you don't track your portfolio on google finance, I suggest you start. You can always compare to the SPX to see how your stockpicking compares to throwing darts at the market with a blindfold on (which is surprisingly hard to beat).

 

Of course a 3  year sample of, I'm guessing, 5-10 stocks isnt' going to be a very statistically strong case one way or the other.

[Willihammer]

Looks like the S&P is up 35% since Apr 2013 but the Nasdaq is up 60.86%. Nasdaq has been going crazy for a while now. Can it continue to outperform the S&P?

 

Both figures don't account for dividends.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow, Netflix. Big international growth this quarter and up a whopping $20 (!) in after hours trading.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice. the stock I own the most of is up massively today......nice that I get to buy it cheaper than market also....

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I'm having a good day as well. Thanks to Netflix, my entire portfolio is up around 2.5% for the day.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess my equivocating on NFLX turned out to be a bad idea! I have really been indecisive lately.

[Vanimal46]

On this day in 1987, Black Monday struck the US Stock Market. The Dow Jones fell 508 points, or 22 percent... Hopefully on that particular day you all hid your money underneath your mattress! 

[Willihammer]

Earnings mostly good so far. Apple, Google and others reporting next week.

 

At 1pm the Fed is scheduled to release its "Beige Book," a summation of anecdotal data from contacts around the various Fed districts. I doubt the market will react much but could have some interesting nuggets in it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I expect to see pretty big gains over the next 2-4 weeks as earnings season gets rolling. Most of my tech stocks seem to be in pretty good shape.

[Mike Sixel]

I imagine Google will kill it again, and I should probably be buying some.....

[gunnarthor]

We're picking up more Disney stock.  Nothing overly sexy about that but we like it and low 90s is a decent area to grab more at.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I bought into Disney around $98. Lost some money, put more in at $92.

 

It won't be a huge gain stock but they pay a modest dividend and I expect the market to pull their head out of their asses in a few quarters after Disney continues to increase revenue and profit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

T-Mobile paid off big for me today. Another great quarter, another +7.5% on the stock.

[Willihammer]

Ugh, Apple. Underwhelming earnings calls are becoming a regular thing. Tons of assets, not much return on them anymore. Time for a new CEO?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ugh, Apple. Underwhelming earnings calls are becoming a regular thing. Tons of assets, not much return on them anymore. Time for a new CEO?

Yeah, Apple better hope Project Titan is something really special or they're in danger of becoming 2000s Microsoft. Highly profitable but invested too deeply in a declining market.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One interesting tidbit about Apple is the monstrous growth of Apple Pay in the past year. Yeah, it doesn't move the needle on Apple but that's only because they're Apple. It's the kind of long-term opportunity channel that most start-ups dream of opening.

 

In the long run, Apple Pay is going to be one of those services that makes Apple a boatload of money with very low overhead on their part. Once they rolled out the service, it mostly runs itself.

 

I suspect we'll see triple digit growth in that sector for a few years as customers grow more comfortable with paying through a phone/watch and idiotic proprietary alternatives such as those used by Target, Wal-Mart, etc. fail miserably. Those proprietary systems are laughable; they're using tech that was badly outdated when Apple Pay launched, much less where it stands today.

 

And Google getting into the game with Android Pay only helps Apple (and vice versa). It encourages both users and retailers to get on board with NFC payments.

[Willihammer]

Ultimately I don't care how Apple turns a profit but I thought when I bought in last year there'd be a lot more product innovation than I've seen. Instead they've delivered... a watch.

 

Maybe I just have to come to grips with the fact that they're a value stock now, not a growth stock.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ultimately I don't care how Apple turns a profit but I thought when I bought in last year there'd be a lot more product innovation than I've seen. Instead they've delivered... a watch.

Yeah, it's been painful to watch them release good, but not stellar, upgrades over the past couple of years.

 

Then again, most of the rest of the industry is stagnating in the same ways. One of the few interesting hardware projects over the past couple of years has been Microsoft's Surface line of products but their sales have been lackluster, as there simply isn't a lot of money to be had in the traditional computing market, no matter how good your product looks and reviews.

 

The next interesting hardware on the horizon is virtual reality but I don't see that taking off for at least a few years. Virtual reality requires top-end computing hardware and it'll take at least 2-3 years for processors capable of powering a proper VR environment to drop in price. The PS4 is an interesting experiment but it'll only end up being an experiment. The PS4's hardware isn't where it needs to be to run virtual reality and we'll have to wait for the PS5 to really get things rolling in the console VR world.

[DaveW]

Nvidia is doing well these days, I don't see that momentum stopping any time in the near future, it would be by far my number one pick.

 

CannaGrow Hldgs is one I bought two years ago when it was at 25 cents a share, I really didn't pay any attention and only bought it because a friend in Colorado told me to, but suddenly about 2-3 weeks ago it shot up to $1.50 then $2.50 and then $3.00

Was able to sell off 25% of the shares around $2.80, not a bad ROI and a good time to move that money into less volatile stock.

Does anyone do any bitcoin trading? I bought a decent chunk when it was around $450 about 6 months ago, and then doubled up at $550 today it's at $680, anyone have any ideas on how high it will go over the next 3-6 months? I think if it hits $800 I may sell 15-20% off.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Amazon posts huge YoY growth, misses analyst estimates, gets shelled in after-hours trading.

 

lol @ market

[Willihammer]

Ah quit complaining The market still loves AMZN.

 

Now GRPN, they got shelled. Wiped out almost all my gains from when I bought in last winter. But, that's been a good stock for covered call premiums. Don't have to worry about getting called out on that stock!

[Willihammer]

Bought a bunch of TSLA today at 202.45. This ought to be fun.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I made a Groupon mistake a few years back. Only lost 30% or so but it taught me a lesson about trying to buy volatile stocks in a down market.

 

They might just keep going down.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for Tesla, they're a risk stock but I don't think they're a stock that will bottom out. They're doing *so many* things that will keep them afloat if one market bottoms out. This is a good example of the exciting stuff they're doing outside of cars.

 

http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/10/teslas-solar-roof-and-energy-ambitions-on-display-at-los-angeles-event/

[Willihammer]

Its not much but this reddit thread prompted me to sell all my AAPL today. My god the negativity. Who can blame them?

 

Doubled down on TSLA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Its not much but this reddit thread prompted me to sell all my AAPL today. My god the negativity. Who can blame them?

Eh, that's just the internet being the internet.

 

There are problems with Apple but they have nothing to do with cabling. We're in another transition period of cabling, where tech and speed has made several jumps in the past year. Thunderbolt 3 and USB-C will be the standard within two years because they're vastly superior tech and it's not close. Hell, Thunderbolt 3 is the only tech that can run a 5k monitor out of the box today. And the fact the ports on the new Macs can run USB-C (so much fast), Thunderbolt 3 (again, 5k display), and power through the same port (any port on the computer) is pretty damned impressive. Apple has finally created the mythical "One Port to Rule Them All" and everyone else will follow. They just paved the way for a future where we see a cable that can do anything and you just plug it into an open port on the computer. You don't think about it, you just plug the cable into the box and go. It doesn't matter if that cable is connected to a monitor, a power source, a device, or a network. It's the final step of the "plug and play" concept. Now the rest of the world needs to catch up and make devices using these cables (which they will, as neither Thunderbolt nor USB-C are proprietary Apple tech).

 

While Apple is catching hell for it today, give it three months. As more high-end devices begin to ship with these "horrible" cables (that are faster, much faster, and superior in general), people will just shut up and get on with their lives.

 

And while Apple's lack of innovation is somewhat disturbing, the device market is almost entirely stagnant right now (another typical cycle in the tech world). Microsoft is building some exciting hardware in the Surface line but they don't sell for ****.

 

Worry about the stagnation of the market, sure... But blame Apple for it? Why? Everyone else is suffering from the same issues. It's a market problem, not an Apple problem. It affects Apple because they're a hardware company and one should be concerned about market stagnation but that also applies to every other hardware company who competes in the same markets.

[Willihammer]

I'm sure you're right. But honestly this is a good move for me. I've never been an Apple consumer. I hate their inflated prices and $25 adapters and the proprietary universe- everything that made them such a great stock to own. But a front page thread like this suggests to me there is a growing number of consumers who are fed up with all that. Hell the new google phone is basically half the cost of the iphone 7. And by all accounts its awesome. I just don't share your confidence in Apple in the medium term and honestly, I'm jonesing to get as much TSLA as I can. Its an opportunity cost equation for me. TSLA's my biggest holding now, I'm all in.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The common practice of accusing Apple of "price gouging" is really bizarre. Apple builds high-end devices and they charge high-end prices for them.

 

The new Google Pixel is the same price as the equivalent iPhone. The same applies to Samsung's Galaxy line. All high-end phones start around $650, give or take $50. All high-end large phones start at $750, give or take $50. The iPhone's price is $650. The iPhone Plus is $770.

 

Look at the Microsoft Surface line and compare prices to Macbooks. Apple's mid-range lines are a bit overpriced but all their high-end hardware is in line with what others charge for their devices.

 

As for proprietary, the only proprietary port on any Apple device is the Lightning port. And with their current push toward USB-C, I hope they eliminate Lightning in the next round of hardware, though I'm not holding my breath. Apple loves their Lightning cable.

 

But even the Lightning port served a legitimate purpose before USB-C offered all the same features. It was omni-directional and waterproof, something micro USB didn't offer.

[Willihammer]

Huh. I should have checked first. Buddy told me Best Buy was offering the Pixel for $400 but I can't verify that now.