Article: 2016 Roster Projections: The Outfielders (Part 1)

[BoomBoom]

 

If Buxton makes this team, Arcia is a no brainer 4th OF (Sano and Rosario in corners).

Buxton is going to play every day, but you have Rosario, Santana, and Escobar that could play CF.

Arcia should get 30 games in the OF if everyone is healthy all year. 20 at 1b and 30 at DH. Then he is the best bench bat I can remember half the time.

As good as Arcia was in his productive MLB season - He never hit for the power that ABW has shown in his short career.   ABW is a much better 4th OF option than Arcia.  Better range defensively and more productive career.   By accident he can hit for more power than the pinch hitters did for the Twins last year.  Throw in some 4th OF appearances and ABW will hit better than any 4th OF option they had last season.  His accidents would out perform last years numbers by a pinch hitter or 4th outfielder.  This way you don't waste the limited reps on a Kepler who is more of an everyday option (when time comes) anyways.

Edited January 23, 2016 by BoomBoom

[ThejacKmp]

 

As good as Arcia was in his productive MLB season - He never hit for the power that ABW has shown in his short career.   ABW is a much better 4th OF option than Arcia.  Better range defensively and more productive career.   By accident he can hit for more power than the pinch hitters did for the Twins last year.  Throw in some 4th OF appearances and ABW will hit better than any 4th OF option they had last season.  His accidents would out perform last years numbers by a pinch hitter or 4th outfielder.  This way you don't waste the limited reps on a Kepler who is more of an everyday option (when time comes) anyways.

 

That's judging two players on a pretty narrow basis. This argument doesn’t pass muster when you examine it closer unless the sole way you judge players is by home runs – which I hope we’ve moved beyond. Power alone does not make a better player. Arcia has objectively been far, far better at every single rung of the ladder:

 

Elizabethton: Arcia OPS 1.096, ABW .805
Cedar Rapids: Arcia OPS 1.124, ABW .844
Fort Myers: Arcia OPS .875, ABW .743
AA Ball: Arcia OPS .955, ABW .807

 

Arcia has also hit well at the AAA and major league levels for extended periods of time, which ABW has not done. And that’s not a matter of age since Arcia is only four or five months older (that shocked me by the way, I thought Arcia was much older than he actually was). 

 

ABW is likely a better fielding option than Arcia but it’s not like he has CF range – his best attribute is “not Arcia” in the field. Since you’re talking about a 4th OF who is likely to be replacing Miguel Sano a good chunk of the time (I assume Sano will move to DH/1B/3B whenever rest/injury allows), you’re not talking about some insane drop off in the Twins OF. And whatever that fielding advantage is, it is more than alleviated by Arcia’s significantly more polished track record. So I can’t see any reasonable argument where ABW is a better 4th OF option that Arcia. And that’s not even factoring in things like Arcia being out of options and ABW being chock full of options or that ABW hasn’t hit above AA pitching and can’t stop striking out.

 

That said, don’t paint me into the ABW hater camp on Twins Daily - I’m super excited for him too. With some work on pitch recognition he could be an all-star. You can teach patience, you can’t teach that crazy amount of power. Even if he never does work out the strikeouts, he profiles as a really fun 4th or 5th OF and pinch hitter.

 

So I’m not talking crap about ABW – I’m just saying that it’s ludicrous to say that ABW should be above Arcia on the depth charts. There is a very sizable gap between the two players and the Twins would be insane to rate ABW over Arcia. Arcia is criminally underrated - he is an elite former prospect who is incredibly young and has a really nice track record. Would not be surprised to see him have a breakout year if there is an early injury that gives him playing time.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Arcia is criminally underrated - he is an elite former prospect who is incredibly young and has a really nice track record. Would not be surprised to see him have a breakout year if there is an early injury that gives him playing time.

 

To follow up with Arcia being a more important part of the Twins long-term success than we might think, if Mauer continues to struggle (and I’ve still got hope he comes back but its fading fast!) and moves into some sort of a bench/platoon/elder-stateman role in 2017, Arcia provides some nice insurance.  If he seizes the day this year at age 24, the Twins could have a super fun lineup in 2017:

 

R Buxton CF
L Kepler RF
R Sano 3B
L Arcia DH
R Park 1B
L Rosario LF
R Dozier 2B
S Escobar SS
R Murphy C

 

You can easily quibble about the order there since that’s super hard to predict a year out (Arcia in the 4 hole is a best case scenario, Rosario and Kepler could easily flip, Dozier in the 7 hole seems like something the Twins might not do to a veteran fan favorite) but that’s a really fun right handed/left handed mix however you arrange it. And there’s so much power there. That’s also not even taking into consideration guys like Vargas, ABW, Polanco, Danny Santana or a rebounding Mauer being in the picture.

 

Arcia is a key guy for the Twins future who is a bit forgotten. Rosario and Kepler and maybe Mauer are all guys who could potentially be really good LH hitters in 2017 but none of them profiles to be a middle of the order 30 HR/yr slugger like Arcia. If he develops this year that lineup gets super scary in late innings when you can't match relievers on them easily.

[Liquidator]

I understand the importance if OPS as people see it, but there is no recent track record of Twin prospects who have flourished based on their minor league OPS.  At least not as I remember.  Walker has a long way to go with his hit tool, but no other prospect has driven in runs like him in recent history either.   The team with the most runs wins every time.  

 

Blog question:  Who is the last Twins prospect you predicted was going to be very good and they proved you right? position player

Edited January 25, 2016 by Liquidator

[dxpavelka]

 

I understand the importance if OPS as people see it, but there is no recent track record of Twin prospects who have flourished based on their minor league OPS.  At least not as I remember.  Walker has a long way to go with his hit tool, but no other prospect has driven in runs like him in recent history either.   The team with the most runs wins every time.  

 

Blog question:  Who is the last Twins prospect you predicted was going to be very good and they proved you right? position player

I'll take a stab at this one.  I was calling my shot for Eddie Rosario for a year and a half before the Twins finally dialed the phone.  I continue to believe he is an extremely vital cog in the future of this club and am not totally convinced that future will be in the outfield.  A thought that a certain second basemen who seems to be developing a penchant for hot starts and slow finishes might want to take note of.

[Halsey Hall]

Saw Arcia today and did a double take.  He looks stronger than ever.  Not that he needed any more strength.  He did come out with a trainer who had a tennis racket, and balls.  He'd hit the balls in the air and Arcia would try to catch them.  Good drill for Arcia, as his first step is really slow. 

[Blackjack]

 

Saw Arcia today and did a double take.  He looks stronger than ever.  Not that he needed any more strength.  He did come out with a trainer who had a tennis racket, and balls.  He'd hit the balls in the air and Arcia would try to catch them.  Good drill for Arcia, as his first step is really slow. 

Thanks for the first hand update!!! Keep them coming!!!

[DaveW]

Many would argue that Bob Costas hasn't had a worthwhile opinion in decades.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Not trying to make a huge issue here, but I think you take for granted the cultural adjustment African American players (ex. Hicks) have to make in the game of professional baseball.  Many people think that it should be an easier transition for African Americans because they are from the USA, but on every team in baseball, they are the minority.  Just saying - food for thought...............

 

80% of the people on Kepler's team look like him.  Kepler also speaks fluent English.   7% of the Twins last year (with expanded roster) looked like Hicks.  In 2014 Hicks was the only African American on the expanded roster.  Was it really an easier path for Hicks than for Kepler?

 

Most people think more about the transitions for Latino and International players in professional baseball compared to the true minority of the game (African Americans).   This is obviously another thread topic, but I wanted bloggers to think about their comments as it pertained to past and future roster moves in the Twins organization.  Not just Black and White all the time (pun intended) in regards to who has the easier cultural transition.  Seeing people who reflect your own image once and a while goes a long way in confidence and development.  

 

Wait is professional baseball more white than youth baseball?  I can't think that that is true. Hicks has spent his whole life dealing with race, I'm sure, but I can't see how professional baseball was suddenly some different beast.

 

Yes Black and Latino players are also a minority. But there is a long history of African American players in the majors and a long history of African American players helping each other out. MLB teams are (belatedly) getting official Spanish translators for every team but most teams have had a coach and players who can help Latino players transition. Heck, it seems like half the Twins team now speaks Spanish, which is awesome. Before Kepler was signed, three Germans had been signed by MLB teams, all the year before. Only one was in the minors for over a year. He ran into no Germans at any stage of the minors - maybe a teammate who spoke a bit of high school German? The food was different, he was thrown into U.S. high school - he had to adjust to a whole new culture on the fly. At age 16. He basically did the transition Park will make next year (minus the language) but a decade younger.

 

What bothers me about what you're saying is that it focuses so much attention on race rather than experience. Race plays a big part of experience but you're making it paramount. Aaron Hicks grew up in the United States and is comfortable with its culture. He's grown up in a baseball-centric world and spent his whole life playing against the same kinds of people he plays against in the minors. Professional baseball was a continuation of his experience to date. Kepler may be a pasty white dude but he'd had none of that experience and the transition to professional ball was absolutely more jarring.

 

This isn't the place to have some discussion of what race means in baseball and society but I don't think Max Kepler being white detracts from the fact that he had to undergo a sudden cultural transition upon moving to the states that Aaron Hicks never did (if you want to view it through a racial cultural lens, he's spent his whole life transitioning into that culture).

[ThejacKmp]

 

A thought that a certain second basemen who seems to be developing a penchant for hot starts and slow finishes might want to take note of.

 

I hope you're not talking about Brian Dozier because the plural in "a penchant for hot starts and slow finishes" indicates that there have been more than one of these types of seasons which is categorically untrue.

[DJSim22]

With these projections of the Twins outfield, I sure hope the pitching improves because the defense looks pitiful.

[Liquidator]

 

Saw Arcia today and did a double take.  He looks stronger than ever.  Not that he needed any more strength.  He did come out with a trainer who had a tennis racket, and balls.  He'd hit the balls in the air and Arcia would try to catch them.  Good drill for Arcia, as his first step is really slow. 

Good to hear.  He will rebound big this year given the opportunity.  Who else is working out early in FM?

[dxpavelka]

 

I wouldn't consider them expert witnesses but I think they have a useful perspective (certainly more useful than the evidence you've marshaled up - which solely consists of your assertion that real major league employees probably agree with you). And you also missed the point - the video game developers don't punish Mike Trout's hitting when he is playing catcher.  Yeah the blog people have no more valid of an opinion than you or I but video game developers are a different matter.

 

Video game developers are tasked with taking the game of baseball and trying to turn it into a realistic interactive experience. The way they do that is by investigating baseball activity and trying to use numbers and formulas to approximate how well Mike Trout will hit Mike Pelfrey or how well Eddie Rosario will play a ball hit into the corner. They clearly spend tons of time working through how baseball works, turning baseball knowledge and performance into statistics. If they don't do a good job, people complain or don't buy the game so they have every incentive to be as accurate as humanly possible.

 

And these folks whose job it is to investigate baseball don't feel that Mike Trout playing catcher effects his hitting (though it certainly doesn't make him a good catcher and leaves him more open to injury). I think it's pretty decent evidence that I'm right in saying that Miguel Sano's bat is unlikely to be effected by playing in a brand new position. Certainly better than "I can't remember the quote or even the author but this one book I read a while back said that I'm right."  Again, evidence please?

 

P.S. Seth Stohs has never run a baseball team. Neither has Aaron Gleeman or Bill James. Does that make their opinions worthless? What about Red Foley or Bob Costas or Shirley Povich? Their opinions don't matter because they never ran a team? We're in a golden age of baseball understanding, where the average fan knows more about how the game works than ever before. You should join us.

So let me paraphrase here:  Since video game developers don't think Mike Trout's offense would be affected by catching, Miguel Sano's bat won't be Affected by playing a different position?  And you present THAT as evidence.  A special kind of......

[nicksaviking]

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[glunn]

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