Article: 2016 Roster Projections: The Outfielders (Part 1)

[Seth Stohs]

Today we continue to look at the Minnesota Twins organizational depth at all of the positions. Previously, we have reviewed the Catchers, First Basemen, Middle Infielders and Third Basemen. We will learn more about some of the outfielders in the system. Because there are so many outfielders, we are going to split this into two articles, those in the big leagues and upper levels today; those in the lower levels tomorrow.If anything goes off of plan, who are some of the options that could get time in the big leagues in coming years. And, who are the prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

 

MAJOR LEAGUES

 

It’s hard to imagine, and would have been even more difficult a year ago, Eddie Rosario enters spring training as the one player that we know with certainty will be in the Twins outfield. Rosario debuted in May, for what was supposed to be a short term, but he stuck the rest of the season and finished sixth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The 24-year-old hit .267/.289/.459 (.748) with 18 doubles, 15 triples, 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases, 15 walks and 16 outfield assists. He’s a candidate for a fall off due to complete unwillingness to walk, or he could make some adjustments and continue to contribute.

 

Miguel Sano will be in the outfield to start the 2016 season. He’s never played the position in a game before. However, he has always been one to take fly balls during batting practice. Sano could play left field or right field, depending up who you ask. He will be in the lineup because of his bat. He didn’t come up until July 1st last year, but he performed so well that he finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. He was also named the Twins top rookie and the Twins MVP. In 80 games, he hit .269/.385/.530 (.916) with 17 doubles and 18 home runs. He walked a lot and struck out even more.

 

The question mark is the third outfielder. One would think that the ideal situation would involve Byron Buxton being ready and winning the Opening Day center field job. After an injury-plagued 2014 season, he had a remarkably inconsistent 2015 season in AA Chattanooga. In mid-June, necessity meant he was called up too early, and the struggles should have been anticipated. But he showed glimpses of what could be. What could be as soon as Opening Day 2016!

 

Danny Santana is out of options, so he’s going to be on the team. Will he be the utility infielder who can also be the backup in center field? If Buxton isn’t quite ready, Santana could go into the season as the starting center fielder as well. It’s a position he was unfamiliar with in 2014 when he debuted and put together a remarkable rookie season. His 2015 was a disaster. The reality is likely somewhere in between, but the 25-year-old can still have a lot of value for the Twins.

 

Speaking of disastrous 2015 seasons, Oswaldo Arcia is also out of options in 2016. The 24-year-old is just one year removed from a season with 20 big league homers. Too much talent to just give up on. He’ll have to earn back confidence, likely in a part-time role, but there’s no doubt that he can hit for a lot of power. Or, he could be trade bait if he can regain some value.

 

MINOR LEAGUES

 

Rochester Red Wings

 

Max Kepler was the Twins minor league hitter of the year in 2015 when he finally had that breakout season we’ve all been hoping for. He’ll be 23-years-old shortly before spring training starts. It’ll be his third big league spring training, but it will be the first where he will get a long look and a possibly an Opening Day job. Most likely, he’ll start the season in Rochester, but don’t be surprised if he is up within a couple of months. He can play all three outfield positions as well as first base.

 

Adam Brett Walker will go to big league spring training for the first time. He will be 24 years old through the 2016 season. He led his league in HR and RBI for the third straight season in 2016, yet he led all of minor league baseball in strikeouts as well. Moving up to AAA will be another big adjustment for Walker, but he will get to work with Chad Allen again, which will help. Defensively, he was moved from right field to left field in 2015. His defense and his arm are also in need of improvement.

 

Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni and Ryan Sweeney all came to the Twins this offseason on minor league deals with spring training invites. Sweeney is a one-time big prospect from Cedar Rapids. The 30-year-old spent parts of nine seasons in the big leagues with the White Sox, A’s, Red Sox and Cubs. Benson was the Twins second round pick back in 2006. He was the Twins minor league hitter of the year in 2011 when he also received a September call up. One of the best athletes in the Twins organization, Benson struggled some with making contact, but more important, he struggled with handling failure. Still just 27, maturity could help him bring things together and he could be a role player in time. Darin Mastroianni was a role player for the Twins, a fourth outfielder from 2012 into 2014. The 30-year-old spent the 2015 season with Buffalo.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Daniel Palka came to the Twins November from the Diamondbacks in the Chris Herrmann trade. In High-A Visalia in 2015, he hit .280/.352/.532 (.884) with 36 doubles, 29 homers and 90 RBI. He also stole 24 bases. He can play the corner outfield positions and first base.

 

Shannon Wilkerson had been playing in the independent Atlantic League until midseason when the Twins signed him and sent him to Chattanooga. In 49 games with the Lookouts, he hit .292/.355/.378 (.733) with ten extra base hits and 11 stolen bases while handling center field. The 27-year-old had spent six seasons in the Red Sox organization. He quickly re-signed with the Twins following the season.

 

Travis Harrison was a supplemental first round pick of the Twins in 2011. He has moved up one level each season since then. He hit .240/.363/.356 (.719) with 23 doubles, four triples and five home runs. He moved from third base to left field to right field the last three seasons. At 6-1 and 215 pounds, Harrison is very strong and we keep hearing that he’ll add home run power. I personally believe that he will. I think the best thing for him would be to spend at least another half-season in AA. We’ve seen it many times. That extra time repeating a level can help slow the game down and the player can find success and learn a few things that propel him toward reaching his potential. Harrison has a ton of potential.

 

Chad Christensen was the Twins 25th round pick in 2013. He has played first base, third base and all three outfield positions in his two full seasons in the Twins system. At Nebraska, he spent a season at shortstop and another in center field. At 6-3 and 205 pounds, he is one of the best pure athletes in the organization. He has terrific speed. He is already 25, but has potential to be a quality role player in time.

 

Keury De La Cruz signed with the Red Sox as a 16-year-old in 2008. He remained in that organization through the 2015 season where he reached AA. He became a minor league free agent and the Twins signed him in December. He played primarily left field in 2015 and hit just .240/.282/.375 (.658) with 22 doubles and three homers in the Eastern League.

 

Niko Goodrum and Stephen Wickens were both highlighted in the third base article. However, Goodrum started spending more and more time in center field in 2015. Wickens has received quite a bit of playing time in left field the last couple of years.

 

SUMMARY

 

I believe that we already know four-fifths of the Twins Opening Day outfield (pending further, surprising transactions). Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano will be in the outfield. Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia are also very likely to be on the Opening Day roster as they are both out of options and very talented. Byron Buxton will likely be given every opportunity to win the starting center field job out of spring training. But if he begins the season in Rochester, Danny Santana is the likely center fielder. That means that one of Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Sweeney or Joe Benson will be the team’s fourth outfielder to start the season. Max Kepler could also be an option in left field should Rosario be the center fielder. We know that highly-touted prospects like Buxton and Kepler will not be kept on the big league roster if they won’t be playing at least five times per week.

 

Along with Buxton and Kepler, Adam Brett Walker will get his first opportunity to impress the coaches in spring training.

 

Tomorrow, we’ll be back with the lower levels of the Twins farm system. There are several more prospects that are very exciting.

 

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[Shane Wahl]

Danny Santana and Miguel Sano in the OF.

 

That's a mess.

[shs_59]

my prediction?

 

MLB: LF Rosario, CF Santana, RF Sano.

 

reserves :  Ryan Sweeney , Eduardo Nunez , Oswaldo Arcia

 

AAA: LF Walker , CF Buxton , RF Kepler

 

reserves :  Joe Benson , Darin Mastroianni

 

AA:  LF Harrison , CF Goodrum , RF Palka

 

reserves :  S. WIlkerson , Chad Christensen

 

A+ :  Tanner English, Max Murphy, Austin Diemer, Chris Paul or LaMonte Wade?

 

 

 

 

 

[DocBauer]

Christensen was actually a SSS who moved to the OF and then moved back to SS due to injuries/team need. He was once named all big 10 SS, FWIW.

 

I am, of course, a dyed in the wool Husker fan, but regardless, I think he has a chance to be a very useful and versatile role player. I don't want to hinder his progress, but I joke the Twins continue to play him around the field and don't let his infield abilities stagnate.

[HitInAPinch]

I believe D. Santana will be the starting CF if Buxton doesn't win the job outright.

But I'd rather see Buxton stay with the Twins and split duties with Santana to get more MLB experience.

 

Left to right: Rosario, D. Santana and Sano starting, Arcia and Buxton on the bench with Nunez.  Could be better: could be worse.

[tobi0040]

"Max Kepler was the Twins minor league hitter of the year in 2015 when he finally had that breakout season we’ve all been hoping for".

 

In looking through Kepler’s numbers, he has some parallels to Hicks.  The Twins were really high on him and he never really produced like they expected. Than he had one good year (2012) and boom, he was on the team the next year.

 

Kepler had a decent 2012 but it was only 59 games.  Then he was pretty pedestrian in 2013 and 2014.  Now he had a great year last year (Better statistically than Hicks in 2012).  I just hope it isn’t like Hicks where we say, aha, we were right the whole time.  This is the guy we knew we had all along.  Now let’s give him a MLB roster spot.  I would hope we see another two months of dominance in AAA before handing him anything.

[Kwak]

CF:  If the Twins believe Buxton needs more seasoning before handing him the job (frankly there is plenty of evidence supporting that position) it makes far more sense to put Rosario in CF than anybody else.  Santana "success" in 2014 wasn't in the field--it was as a hitter.  As a CF he was over-matched--throws off-line and circuitous routes.  Showcase his ability as an all-around OF and be prepared to trade him next year if Buxton "takes ownership" of CF.

 

RF/LF:  Clearly Sano will play someplace, but it's backa**ward to award major league jobs on the basis of "he's out of options".  I earnestly hope that ABW and/or Palka step-up and show that they are true sluggers so that one of them become a starting OF and provide another source of consistent power-hitting.  Kepler will likely become a more "rounded" type of player--and there will be two corner OFers in the line-up!  So, no need to worry about him.  You ask "well what about Rosario?"  (and others).  This is why executives get paid--to make the tough decisions.  Select the starters--and trade "the silver medalists" while they have considerable value.  Stockpiling "options" because an executive is afraid to make a mistake (or just needs a security "blankee") is destructive to the franchise.  Only nine are in the field, and talent can't be wasted on "options".  The "2nd place" talent must be exchanged for youth to maintain a constant reloading of talent.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

"Max Kepler was the Twins minor league hitter of the year in 2015 when he finally had that breakout season we’ve all been hoping for".

 

In looking through Kepler’s numbers, he has some parallels to Hicks.  The Twins were really high on him and he never really produced like they expected. Than he had one good year (2012) and boom, he was on the team the next year.

 

Kepler had a decent 2012 but it was only 59 games.  Then he was pretty pedestrian in 2013 and 2014.  Now he had a great year last year (Better statistically than Hicks in 2012).  I just hope it isn’t like Hicks where we say, aha, we were right the whole time.  This is the guy we knew we had all along.  Now let’s give him a MLB roster spot.  I would hope we see another two months of dominance in AAA before handing him anything.

 

I see the parallels but I don't know that they're entirely spot on. Kepler is different than every other prospect because he came from Germany and did not have the  background a typical prospect does - he had to learn a lot about the game. So it was expected that he would struggle some at first and then hopefully take a jump. 

 

Hicks was a first round pick overall who struggled for years and then took a jump. That's a horse of a different color - he was not expected to struggle as much as he did. His jump was also more suspicious because there isn't an easy explanation like there is for Kepler.

 

I also think it's important to take the person into perspective. Loved me some Hicks but he had difficulty with the emotional side of the game. That's not to blame him - I'm surprised more guys don't have issues with this. They're in their early 20s and they're dealing with pressures and publicity no other person their age deals with. So not blaming him but he had a tendency to magnify the bad and make it worse. I've seen and heard nothing similar about Kepler - scouts and Twins staff have been marveling for years (long before he took his jump) about his poise and his ability to handle the mental things that Hicks had trouble with initially.

That's not to say that Kepler may not struggle some and your suggestion that he gets some time in AAA is apt from a "prove it" perspective and from a service time perspective. But I just think it's important to notice that Kepler's jump was expected in a way that Hicks' wasn't and that Kepler's poise differentiates him from the Aaron Hicks Experience.

 

 

[Blackjack]

Terry Ryan REALLY likes Kepler!!! Every time I hear TR talk and Kepler is mentioned, he gushes with praise.  If he isn't on the roster out of spring training he'll be up by June 1st.

[Lefty]

I hope to see Buxton succeed like everyone else.  My ideal is going to be Buxton, Rosario, and Sano which I think is what the Twins are shooting for.  I'm hoping Walker can get his cup of coffee somewhere in here too.  Strikeouts suck, but I dig the longball and the run production.

 

I don't want to be negative on Kepler because he had an amazing year last year.  It seems that everyone is always looking for the regression year for all of these prospects coming up but it's never mentioned for Kepler.  Wouldn't he be due for this also.  If I look at it that way then Rosario would be due for that also, but I guess I'm just not banking on Kepler being ready just yet.  

[birddog]

Arcia once again appears to be the forgotten man here. I know he's out of options and shouldn't win a job because of that, but he can flat out hit. His defense is suspect at best, but he was hitting .276 when he was sent down last year and he is capable of approaching .300 with good power if he doesn't try to crush every pitch. I like his intensity and it appears he wants to be a leader. Terrible attitude in the minors last year, but I expect him to grow up a lot this year and live up to his talent. If Buxton doesn't stick I hope to see Rosario in CF and Sano and Arcia in the corners.

 

Twins fans have to be excited about the OF possibilities to start the season, but when Buxton and Kepler arrive for good, hopefully we can lock them in for a decade. I, too, am hoping ABW or Palka can produce their minor league numbers in the bigs. Can't wait for the season to start as I see us scoring a lot of runs.

[Seth Stohs]

 

my prediction?

 

A+ :  Tanner English, Max Murphy, Austin Diemer, Chris Paul or LaMonte Wade?

 

Well, you're just going to have to check back tomorrow. :-)

[tobi0040]

 

I see the parallels but I don't know that they're entirely spot on. Kepler is different than every other prospect because he came from Germany and did not have the  background a typical prospect does - he had to learn a lot about the game. So it was expected that he would struggle some at first and then hopefully take a jump. 

 

Hicks was a first round pick overall who struggled for years and then took a jump. That's a horse of a different color - he was not expected to struggle as much as he did. His jump was also more suspicious because there isn't an easy explanation like there is for Kepler.

 

I also think it's important to take the person into perspective. Loved me some Hicks but he had difficulty with the emotional side of the game. That's not to blame him - I'm surprised more guys don't have issues with this. They're in their early 20s and they're dealing with pressures and publicity no other person their age deals with. So not blaming him but he had a tendency to magnify the bad and make it worse. I've seen and heard nothing similar about Kepler - scouts and Twins staff have been marveling for years (long before he took his jump) about his poise and his ability to handle the mental things that Hicks had trouble with initially.

That's not to say that Kepler may not struggle some and your suggestion that he gets some time in AAA is apt from a "prove it" perspective and from a service time perspective. But I just think it's important to notice that Kepler's jump was expected in a way that Hicks' wasn't and that Kepler's poise differentiates him from the Aaron Hicks Experience.

 

 

I don't know that Kepler's youth would have a huge impact.  Sure it was different than Hicks, but Kepler was playing in national tourney's as a 14 year old and signed as a 16 year old. So he had two additional years under the Twins watch from a training perspective, instruction, etc.  He effectively had two years of rookie league ball under his belt by the time Hicks was drafted as a high school player.

[Vanimal46]

I already feel bad for the fly ball pitchers in our rotation on days where Arcia and Sano are both playing the corners in the OF. I'm envisioning a lot of texas leaguers finding open grass, and base runners being able to advance much easier on us than last year.... 

[Mike Sixel]

That AA roster looks suspect........

 

I think Buxton is in AAA to start, with Santana in CF to start. Molitor really seems to love him. By the middle of the year, Sano will be at 3B, Buxton in CF, and Kepler in RF. And the Twins will be 5 games under, and finish 2 games over .500.

[dxpavelka]

I could take fly balls in batting practice.  Doesn't make me a big league OF any more than it does Sano.  The guy has a chance to be a once in a generation type of talent with the stick in his hands.  Why take the chance of screwing with his offensive confidence by moving him from a position where he's played over 90% of his minor league games to a position he's never played before?  Move Plouffe to OF and let the perceived increase in versatility help improve his trade value for if / when we decide to move him. 

[DocBauer]

As has been mentioned, Kepler could regress. But he could also regress while improving. In other words, maybe the SO climb some and the OB slips a bit but more power comes. Each season needs to be taken on its own accord. I see him hitting 3rd for our beloved Twins in the very near future and being an all around producer, though I don't know that he will ever win a batting title or jack 30.

 

As to Arcia, what I feel I saw in 2014 was slight improvement defensively. That isn't high praise, but praise still the same. He does have a strong arm, and believe it or not, the Twins have put worse out there before. (As has everyone to be fair) I still think we see a resurgence this season. He is just too young and too talented not to.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't know that Kepler's youth would have a huge impact.  Sure it was different than Hicks, but Kepler was playing in national tourney's as a 14 year old and signed as a 16 year old. So he had two additional years under the Twins watch from a training perspective, instruction, etc.  He effectively had two years of rookie league ball under his belt by the time Hicks was drafted as a high school player.

 

It's not Kepler's youth we're talking about, we're talking about experience. Those two aren’t the same.

Hicks grew up playing in CA, home of the best youth baseball competition the world has to offer. His dad played in the high minors and he grew up in a culture where most of the kids he knew played baseball – and if they didn’t at least they knew how to play. He was scouted starting in his sophomore year and was drafted #14 overall with comparisons to Daryl Strawberry and Adam Jones – the real question was whether he was an outfielder or a pitcher.  He did not have to make a cultural transition or move across the world when starting professional baseball.

 

Kepler grew up in Germany, where most kids don’t know how to play baseball, let alone play it at a high level. His parents were ballerinas with no experience in MLB and while he played in top German leagues, the competition was incredibly weak. He had great potential and a nice build but was rated extremely raw by scouts and was a gamble since no one signed players out of Europe. He moved to the U.S. by himself at age 16, making an extreme cultural transition while finishing high school and working out with the Twins.

 

Those are two insanely different paths. Hicks was a highly touted and polished high school prospect who had some struggles in the low minors before having a good AA season which earned him a promotion to the majors. Kepler was a raw prospect from Europe of all places who was expected to struggle.  He did that but then had a fantastic AA season, fulfilling the Twins hopes that after a period of adjustment to American life and to playing against elite competition for the first time, he would develop into a stud prospect.  Hicks’ path after AA success and Kepler’s future after AA success are not a good place for comparison because the context within which each happened is so different.

 

When Hicks had his success, there were reasons to doubt it based on him struggling in the lower minors (though Span did the same thing and was fine).  Kepler, on the other hand, is a prospect following the path the Twins hoped he would.  It’s basically a story of regaining prospect status versus developing into a prospect.  Kepler’s success may be a mirage but it won’t have anything to do with Hicks’s experience before him.  To argue that is mistaken and neglects the historical context of the two seasons.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I could take fly balls in batting practice.  Doesn't make me a big league OF any more than it does Sano.  The guy has a chance to be a once in a generation type of talent with the stick in his hands.  Why take the chance of screwing with his offensive confidence by moving him from a position where he's played over 90% of his minor league games to a position he's never played before?  Move Plouffe to OF and let the perceived increase in versatility help improve his trade value for if / when we decide to move him. 

 

Sano has never been a guy who lacked confidence. He has professional at bats and isn't somebody prone to bouts of self-doubt (like a Hicks for instance). Even when he isn't hitting the ball, he goes up there and takes quality at bats. I have no worries that he is some head case who will fall apart because he's around grass instead of dirt.

 

Also, name me a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good. Even Knoblauch continued to hit when he became unable to throw to first. Guys regularly take their hitting woes out to the field but I can't remember seeing it go the other way around. If Sano doesn't hit this year it won't be because he's in the OF, it will be because pitchers are figuring out how to attack him.

 

That said, I agree that Plouffe should also get some time in the outfield and I imagine the Twins will do some of that in spring training. He played 31 games out there in the majors in 2011 and 2012 and while I don't remember him being good, the stats and memory don't find anything to awful. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I already feel bad for the fly ball pitchers in our rotation on days where Arcia and Sano are both playing the corners in the OF. I'm envisioning a lot of texas leaguers finding open grass, and base runners being able to advance much easier on us than last year.... 

There's no way around it.

 

One reason last year was possible was that we had 3 above average outfielders. Now we seem to have 1, maybe. Rosario in not a lock to repeat last season, let alone improve on it. Santana has not proven that he is a mediocre defender and an inconsistent hitter. It seems for the time being the Twins OF has regressed badly.

 

Bring on Kepler and Buxton, when and if they're ready, and things may change in a hurry.

Edited January 20, 2016 by ScrapTheNickname

[Vanimal46]

 

There's no way around it.

 

One reason last year was possible was that we had 3 above average outfielders. Now we seem to have 1, maybe. Rosario in not a lock to repeat last season, let alone improve on it. Santana has not proven that he is a mediocre defender and an inconsistent hitter. It seems for the time being the Twins OF has regressed badly.

 

Bring on Kepler and Buxton, when and if they're ready, and things may change in a hurry.

Yeah no doubt about it. I just don't know how Hughes can rebound in 2016 like most of us are anticipating with the OF defense behind him. Same with E. Santana too, who relied a lot on getting batters to fly out in the OF. 

[nicksaviking]

 

my prediction?

 

MLB: LF Rosario, CF Santana, RF Sano.

 

reserves :  Ryan Sweeney , Eduardo Nunez , Oswaldo Arcia

 

AAA: LF Walker , CF Buxton , RF Kepler

 

reserves :  Joe Benson , Darin Mastroianni

 

 

Do any of Sweeney, Benson or Matroianni have opt outs if they aren't called up by xx/xx/xxxx?

 

Because the AAA situation has potential to be a problem. If Buxton isn't ready for opening day, the AAA OF absolutely should be Buxton, Kepler and Walker, but I have a hard time seeing the team sitting multiple vets like Sweeney, Benson and Mastroianni on the bench for long stretches at a time.

 

I have to think at minimum, one of the three vets will have to be released by opening day, and if they aren't looking at a lot of bench time in AAA, it may be something that the vets request.

[Lefty]

Jeez, I forgot about Arcia.  I have a feeling we'll see him traded, that's what seems to be floating around anyway.  If he does get traded, I'm hoping it's to an NL team, I could see him getting his feet under him someday and totally going off for 30-40 bombs.  Crazy streaky power.  Wouldn't be against seeing him in the OF for the Twins.  Maybe we can get a corner infield spot to open up somehow (maybe some kind of bi-lateral leg issue), move Sano to one of those, and fill his spot with Arcia. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do any of Sweeney, Benson or Matroianni have opt outs if they aren't called up by xx/xx/xxxx?

 

Because the AAA situation has potential to be a problem. If Buxton isn't ready for opening day, the AAA OF absolutely should be Buxton, Kepler and Walker, but I have a hard time seeing the team sitting multiple vets like Sweeney, Benson and Mastroianni on the bench for long stretches at a time.

 

I have to think at minimum, one of the three vets will have to be released by opening day, and if they aren't looking at a lot of bench time in AAA, it may be something that the vets request.

 

I do agree with this, but I'd guess if Buxton is in AAA, one of those guys is in the majors. That means one has to be cut, or sent to AA. It would be VERY frustrating for the AAA OF not to be that alignment, if Buxton is there. Imagine the outrage if/when Kepler or Walker is in AA to star the year, so they can protect three AAAA players.......

[tobi0040]

 

It's not Kepler's youth we're talking about, we're talking about experience. Those two aren’t the same.

Hicks grew up playing in CA, home of the best youth baseball competition the world has to offer. His dad played in the high minors and he grew up in a culture where most of the kids he knew played baseball – and if they didn’t at least they knew how to play. He was scouted starting in his sophomore year and was drafted #14 overall with comparisons to Daryl Strawberry and Adam Jones – the real question was whether he was an outfielder or a pitcher.  He did not have to make a cultural transition or move across the world when starting professional baseball.

 

Kepler grew up in Germany, where most kids don’t know how to play baseball, let alone play it at a high level. His parents were ballerinas with no experience in MLB and while he played in top German leagues, the competition was incredibly weak. He had great potential and a nice build but was rated extremely raw by scouts and was a gamble since no one signed players out of Europe. He moved to the U.S. by himself at age 16, making an extreme cultural transition while finishing high school and working out with the Twins.

 

Those are two insanely different paths. Hicks was a highly touted and polished high school prospect who had some struggles in the low minors before having a good AA season which earned him a promotion to the majors. Kepler was a raw prospect from Europe of all places who was expected to struggle.  He did that but then had a fantastic AA season, fulfilling the Twins hopes that after a period of adjustment to American life and to playing against elite competition for the first time, he would develop into a stud prospect.  Hicks’ path after AA success and Kepler’s future after AA success are not a good place for comparison because the context within which each happened is so different.

 

When Hicks had his success, there were reasons to doubt it based on him struggling in the lower minors (though Span did the same thing and was fine).  Kepler, on the other hand, is a prospect following the path the Twins hoped he would.  It’s basically a story of regaining prospect status versus developing into a prospect.  Kepler’s success may be a mirage but it won’t have anything to do with Hicks’s experience before him.  To argue that is mistaken and neglects the historical context of the two seasons.

 

I am not arguing that California and Germany are equals in terms of baseball. 

 

The disagreement we have is by the time Hicks arrived with the Twins at 18, Kepler had been here for two years and played professional ball for two seasons. The Twins through resources at him.  That two year period would have caught him up to at least some extent.  So I think the two could be compared.  Not a perfect comparison but one nonetheless

[Danchat]

TR has said that he sees Rosario as a natural CF. Maybe he'll start there before Buxton's ready?

[beckmt]

Believe Arcia, if he does not bomb in spring training will be in Right, with Sano in left and Rosario in center, not ideal, but one choice.  Santana will be utility for all positions And Nunez will be infield backup and left field third option. 

If Arcia bombs or Buxton or Kepler has an outstanding spring, all bets are off, but would guess either Park is sent out to AAA for a couple of months to get his feet under him or TR will have to make a major trade at the end of spring training, stay tuned.

[TheLeviathan]

 

TR has said that he sees Rosario as a natural CF. Maybe he'll start there before Buxton's ready?

 

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Rosario-Arcia in the OF if the Sano to the OF talk is legit.

[tobi0040]

 

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Rosario-Arcia in the OF if the Sano to the OF talk is legit.

 

I really hope you are wrong. 

 

Rosario played CF for 15 games last year and 40 in 2014.  

 

Flanking him is a guy who has not played a single game out there. 

 

On the other side, we have a guy with a really bad track record. In 202 games in the OF, Arcia has a dWAR of -3.7.

[drjim]

I don't get the lack of confidence in Buxton starting the season in CF. It would take an injury or a terrible spring slump to keep him from breaking camp with the Twins. Twins wouldn't have traded Hicks if they had doubts.

 

I generally think that barring injury the everyday roster is pretty close to locked in.