Article: Top Prospects of 2017

[Jeremy Nygaard]

In the 2016 edition of the Twins Prospect Handbook, Cody, Seth and I took a look at how the team's prospect list could look twelve months from now.

 

This is the lead-in from the book:

 

"Since the Twins Prospect Handbook became a joint-effort four years ago, the Twins have always had a consensus top prospect. With Byron Buxton narrowly avoiding losing the “prospect” label, this winter will be more of the same.

 

But a year from now Buxton will have shed the label. If Jose Berrios continues to pitch the way he has been the last two seasons, he’ll lose the label as well. Southern League MVP Max Kepler? It’s probably fair to say he’ll get the big-league at-bats that will prohibit him from heading up the prospect list next year as well.

 

Fortunately for the Twins (and their fans), the cupboard is far from bare and we’re going to look into our prospect crystal ball and determine who is - or could be - finding their name on the top of the list next winter."While we don't want to give away too much of what the article talks about in the book, we do encourage you to think about what your Top 10 could look like a year from now.

 

It's probably safe to assume that the consensus Top 3 Twins prospects who were mentioned above - Buxton, Berrios, Kepler - will graduate from prospect-status. So who fills that void?

 

Let's take a look at the names that might top that list:

 

Nick Gordon, SS - Gordon impressed in his first full-season and seemed to answer those that had questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. Now he heads back to his home state with a chance to ascend up national prospect lists.

 

Jorge Polanco, SS/2B - There are still plenty of questions about Polanco's defensive home and there is increasing belief that he'll end up at second base. But his bat is for real and Twins fans have seen glimpses of that in his brief MLB stints. Out of options after the season and blocked by Brian Dozier, Polanco best chance to break into the bigs probably is in a different organization. Not a bad chip to have, though, especially when he could top this list next year.

 

Tyler Jay, LHP; Kohl Stewart, RHP; Stephen Gonsalves, LHP - Depending on what list you're looking at, you're likely to find these three in some order in the bottom half of the Top 10. Any of them could make a Berrios-type climb up the charts. And who you think tops that list is a matter of preference. Is it Jay? Last year's first round pick who was drafted and considered the most likely of all draftees to reach the big leagues? Or maybe it's Stewart. The high-ceiling, former QB who has the potential to throw four plus-pitches, but hasn't been striking guys out? You can't forget Gonsalves, the lefty that's been dominating each level that he has pitched.

 

Who else would you put in consideration? If you've read the Prospect Handbook, you might even notice that Seth's guess to top the list was not mentioned above.

 

Though we love our prospects here, MLB Network's radio host (and Mets fans) Casey Stern famously said before the trade deadline last year, "Prospects are cool. Parades are cooler." Could it be that the Twins turn their attention to a parade this July and move prospects. (I think we can all agree on the likelihood of that.)

 

Look into your prospect crystal ball. What do you see?

 

Click here to view the article

[sftwinsfan]

List could be a little depressing next year, guessing #1 will be either Gordon or Jay. Hoping it won't be Polanco, he's a solid prospect but not anybody that looks like he's going to be a star by any means.  Would be great to see some of the younger guys like Lewin Diaz take a big step forward or one of the injured guys like Lewis Thorpe.

[Liquidator]

Thorpe top 10 and Gonsalves top 5

[shs_59]

I'll take a stab....

 

#1 Jorge Polanco (twins need to keep his arb years ahead of him the best they can untill Dozier's are thinned out)

#2 Jermaine Polacios (going on a limb here)

#3 Tyler Jay

#4 Stephen Gonsalves

#5 Nick Gordon

---

#6 Kohl Stewart (nice little rebound season, nothing spetacular)

#7 Wander Javier   (ITs sooo nice to see immediate dividends on ur investment!)

#8 Engelb Vielma (starts out in FSL w/ Gordon but forces twins hand into Chatty promotion)

#9 Daniel Palka  (fixes the K issues and mashes RH pitchers better than ever before)

#10 A.B Walker  (Does NOT fix the K issues but he is what he is think of Chris Carter formally of the 'stros now on Milwaukee)

 

close but no Cigar : Travis Harrison , Lewin Diaz, Lewis Thorpe, Mason Melotakis and A.J. Murray.

 

 

 

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'll take a stab....

 

#1 Jorge Polanco (twins need to keep his arb years ahead of him the best they can untill Dozier's are thinned out)

#2 Jermaine Polacios (going on a limb here)

#3 Tyler Jay

#4 Stephen Gonsalves

#5 Nick Gordon

---

#6 Kohl Stewart (nice little rebound season, nothing spetacular)

#7 Wander Javier   (ITs sooo nice to see immediate dividends on ur investment!)

#8 Engelb Vielma (starts out in FSL w/ Gordon but forces twins hand into Chatty promotion)

#9 Daniel Palka  (fixes the K issues and mashes RH pitchers better than ever before)

#10 A.B Walker  (Does NOT fix the K issues but he is what he is think of Chris Carter formally of the 'stros now on Milwaukee)

 

close but no Cigar : Travis Harrison , Lewin Diaz, Lewis Thorpe, Mason Melotakis and A.J. Murray.

 

I was the high guy on Palacios in the handbook, so I could get after a big jump like that. Having four SS in the top eight would be quite the turnaround from a few years ago.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'll take a stab....

 

#1 Jorge Polanco (twins need to keep his arb years ahead of him the best they can untill Dozier's are thinned out)

#2 Jermaine Polacios (going on a limb here)

#3 Tyler Jay

#4 Stephen Gonsalves

#5 Nick Gordon

---

#6 Kohl Stewart (nice little rebound season, nothing spetacular)

#7 Wander Javier   (ITs sooo nice to see immediate dividends on ur investment!)

#8 Engelb Vielma (starts out in FSL w/ Gordon but forces twins hand into Chatty promotion)

#9 Daniel Palka  (fixes the K issues and mashes RH pitchers better than ever before)

#10 A.B Walker  (Does NOT fix the K issues but he is what he is think of Chris Carter formally of the 'stros now on Milwaukee)

 

close but no Cigar : Travis Harrison , Lewin Diaz, Lewis Thorpe, Mason Melotakis and A.J. Murray.

 

I would say that you're much more on a limb in saying AJ Murray will be "close" than saying Palacios could be #2... 

 

I really enjoyed the conversation-turned-article on the Twins 2017 top prospect. It should be very interesting.

[nytwinsfan]

Here is my prediction:

 

1. Gordon

2. Jay

3. 2016 First Round Pick

4. Gonsalves

5. Prospect From Plouffe Trade

6. Stewart

7. Javier

8. Palacios

9. L. Wade

10. Vielma

11. Thorpe

12. Melotakis

13. R. Rosario

14. F. Jorge

15. Walker

16. L. Diaz

17. 2016 Second Round Pick

18. Turner

19. Blankenhorn

20. Garver

21. F. Romero

22. Jean Carlos Arias

23. Y. Landa

24. Reed

25. L. Wells

 

I predict Polanco, Palka and Harrison will either be with the Twins (small chance for each) or in another organization (by trade for Polanco, or release for the other two). I predict Meyer, Burdi, Rodgers, and Chargois will be with the Twins and have exhausted their eligibility. I predict Walker, Turner, Melotakis, and Reed will get Sept. call ups, but won't exhaust eligibility.

 

[Dman]

Palacio would have my pick as well.  He has a chance to be this years Orlando Arcia or he could just as easily fall to earth in A ball. Hard to say as several guys do well until they hit A or High A and they find the off speed stuff too much to handle.  This guy seems like a fantastic hitter though so I am betting on him doing well.

 

I would also like to think the Twins paid Javiar 4M for a reason.  I have heard there are potential holes in his swing but that he hits the ball hard.  I would like to think he will do well and be ranked top 10 before long.

 

I am a big Jay believer as well.  Scouting reports were glowing for him but transitioning to starter is a guessing game.  he has the pitches just hope he has the endurance and no Tommy John in his future.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to think Gordon and Jay will be up in the top 3 in 2017, if for no other reason than draft status. If they both do exceedingly well, then they will likely be top 50 MLB prospects as well. 

 

As for dark horses, I really like Thorpe, but I suspect he's going to be eased back in, probably remaining in EST and eventually being sent to Cedar Rapids. If he continues where he left off in CR in 2014 (he started slow but got significantly better as the season wore on), I think he's a pretty sure bet to be in the top 5. He was getting national attention prior to that, and putting his TJ concerns to rest would likely revitalize that attention. If he struggles though, then he's probably in the 8-15 range.  

 

My pick to rocket up the lists at this point are Gonsalves and Palka.

[HitInAPinch]

The comment on Polanco  "blocked by Brian Dozier, Polanco best chance to break into the bigs probably is in a different organization." is the thing about the Twins that has always concerned me. 

 

I'd rather hear if there are any plans by Twins management to move veterans while they still have some value and promote those prospects.  And a pull-back in FA veteran pitcher signings [plus the a fore mentioned veteran trades] to make a little room for the young pitching prospects.

[clutterheart]

Its a big year for pitching prospects this year.  Lots of A ball pitchers need to take that next step, Thorpe and Romero recover from their TJ and will Jay pan out as a starter?

 

1 - Gordon
2 - Stewart - I think this is mostly hopeful
3 - Polanco
4 - Jay
5 - Gonsalves
6 - Jorge
7 - Landa
8 - Walker
9 - Rosario
10 - Javier
11 - Thorpe
12 - Palacios
13 - Romero
14 - Arraez
15 - Wade
16 - Vielma
17 - Arias
18 - Wells
19 - Blankenhorn

20 - Ynoa

[nytwinsfan]

 

The comment on Polanco  "blocked by Brian Dozier, Polanco best chance to break into the bigs probably is in a different organization." is the thing about the Twins that has always concerned me. 

 

I'd rather hear if there are any plans by Twins management to move veterans while they still have some value and promote those prospects.  And a pull-back in FA veteran pitcher signings [plus the a fore mentioned veteran trades] to make a little room for the young pitching prospects.

As a general matter I don't necessarily disagree, but despite his second-half struggles, Dozier has been worth 3.7, 5.2, and 2.4 WAR the last three seasons. Yes, the second half of last year was discouraging but I don't think you can trade Dozier now and expect that it is likely or even probable Polanco will exceed Dozier's expected production in the next year or two. Polanco didn't exactly tear it up last year either. Ideally, Polanco would be a year or two younger with one or two more options, so he could take over for Dozier in 2017 or 18, but it is what it is. Better to see how Dozier does this year, and assuming he is still a 2 WAR or above player, trade Polanco down the stretch to a team that really needs a 2B and get some value for him, and then wait for Gordon or Palacios to take over for Dozier in 2-3 years. That's what I would do anyway.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

The comment on Polanco  "blocked by Brian Dozier, Polanco best chance to break into the bigs probably is in a different organization." is the thing about the Twins that has always concerned me. 

 

I'd rather hear if there are any plans by Twins management to move veterans while they still have some value and promote those prospects.  And a pull-back in FA veteran pitcher signings [plus the a fore mentioned veteran trades] to make a little room for the young pitching prospects.

 

I don't disagree completely. But there's a window to compete (right now, hopefully) and replacing proven goods with unproven goods isn't the best way to guarantee a competitive team. (Neither is ignoring a bad bullpen... so you could argue this team doesn't plan to compete right now.)

 

At the end of the day, though, you'd hope that Polanco becomes as good of a player as Dozier. And Dozier is affordable for the next couple of years. I'd start the season with Polanco at AAA (and as insurance for a Dozier injury) and if there's a piece I want to add at the end of July, float him out there. I wouldn't give him away, though, he could easily fill the Nunez role in 2017.

 

[dxpavelka]

Polanco won't be "blocked by Dozier" for long if Dozier doesn't learn to hit after recess.

[Thrylos]

The question you are trying to answer for 2017, is similar to the one I have been trying to answer for 2016, since most people's prospects for 2016 have graduated my list, as they have played in the majors.  I posted 6-10 today, and 1-5 tomorrow (so go there in a day to see it,)  and will let that stand as an answer.

 

The only additional comment I have is if Buxton has not graduated as a prospect already, I see Berrios and Kepler having hard time graduating as prospects with the same criteria.  Kepler will not be a fourth outfielder and Berrios will not be in the pen.  And a lot of changes, including trades and/or injuries will have to happen for those two to make the Twins in 2016, before the "consider a prospect" deadline...

[nytwinsfan]

 

The only additional comment I have is if Buxton has not graduated as a prospect already, I see Berrios and Kepler having hard time graduating as prospects with the same criteria.  Kepler will not be a fourth outfielder and Berrios will not be in the pen.  And a lot of changes, including trades and/or injuries will have to happen for those two to make the Twins in 2016, before the "consider a prospect" deadline...

 

I can see that possibly being the case with Kepler, but I don't think so with Berrios. By all accounts they would have brought him up last year but for the innings limits.  If he pitches like he did last year the pressure from the fans and press to replace Milone or Nolasco or whoever is going to be immense.

Edited January 18, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[Thrylos]

 

  If he pitches like he did last year the pressure from the fans and press to replace Milone or Nolasco or whoever is going to be immense.

 

The press?   Do you remember the pressure by the press when the Twins had Liriano lights out in AAA while Livan was stinking up the place in the majors in 2008?   The "pressure" was from some fans (not the majority) and by Liriano's agent.  

 

The press does not pressure the Twins.  And there is a large (thankfully smaller after 99+96+96+93) portion of the Twins' fanbase who think that the front office is knowing what they are doing and Terry Ryan can do no wrong...

[nytwinsfan]

 

The press?   Do you remember the pressure by the press when the Twins had Liriano lights out in AAA while Livan was stinking up the place in the majors in 2008?   The "pressure" was from some fans (not the majority) and by Liriano's agent.  

 

The press does not pressure the Twins.  And there is a large (thankfully smaller after 99+96+96+93) portion of the Twins' fanbase who think that the front office is knowing what they are doing and Terry Ryan can do no wrong...

 

The press is a lot different now than in 2008. In 2008 lots of people, including in the press didn't even know who the top prospects in the organization were. Now you have prospect-obsessed bloggers and tweeters sniping at Terry Ryan and Molitor and some (admittedly not all) paper writers who are sympathetic to the views of those bloggers/tweeters repeating those criticisms in a more diplomatic form. 

[Ncgo4]

I'm not going to include a complete list but I think we're going to have 3 players that will have very big moves up the chart this year.

 

1.  Lewis Thorpe.  A healthy year and he could just light things up.  An Australian to room with our German.

2.  Kohl Stewart.  I expect him to forget about being a 17 option pitcher (I'm surprised he hasn't experimented with a grease ball, the Blooper and a knuckler, or has he) and concentrate in his fastball and slider and begin to really ratchet up the K's.  If so he could be a big happy face.

3.  Engelb Vielma.  I think that by the end of the year we will have forgotten about Nick Gordon, except to wonder where we'll move him,  and all of us will be talking about this shortstop.

 

But then again I thought they should have saved a little of Berrios' innings for a late season call-up so what do I know?

[Ncgo4]

I don't have a lot of understanding about this heredity stuff we hear about with Nick Gordon.  I understand he should have had a better understanding of the fundamentals, from sitting next to his father watching the game.  But a stopwatch and statistics should quickly put an end to the, "He's out of She Bang by Man-of-War" kinds of talk.

 

Certainly when he's 14 years old it should absolutely dictate that scouts should be watching him.  But after 2 years in professional ball, does someone really believe he has a better than average chance than other 20 year olds of exceeding his Sabermetrics indications?

 

I think his potential and upside is still pretty terrific, but the required reference to his family tree seems a little silly by now.  I certainly hope he isn't promoted above prospects with better performance because of his father and brother and I'm not sure that that's true.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't have a lot of understanding about this heredity stuff we hear about with Nick Gordon.  I understand he should have had a better understanding of the fundamentals, from sitting next to his father watching the game.  But a stopwatch and statistics should quickly put an end to the, "He's out of She Bang by Man-of-War" kinds of talk.

 

Certainly when he's 14 years old it should absolutely dictate that scouts should be watching him.  But after 2 years in professional ball, does someone really believe he has a better than average chance than other 20 year olds of exceeding his Sabermetrics indications?

 

I think his potential and upside is still pretty terrific, but the required reference to his family tree seems a little silly by now.  I certainly hope he isn't promoted above prospects with better performance because of his father and brother and I'm not sure that that's true.

 

It can't not be brought up. It's reality which is good and bad for him.

 

But, I am a huge fan of his prospect status because of what I saw in spring training, before spring training, in Cedar Rapids, talking to him, watching him pre game, and chatting with him post game. 

 

And then it's about guessing. He's got a great approach at the plate, a sweet swing, uses the whole field, runs the bases well, great hands, strong, accurate arm. There's nothing to not like.

[Thrylos]

 

And then it's about guessing. He's got a great approach at the plate, a sweet swing, uses the whole field, runs the bases well, great hands, strong, accurate arm. There's nothing to not like.

 

Results.

 

Same age in Etown:

 

Gordon: .294/.333/.366

Palacios: .336/.345/.507

 

Quick. Pick. One.

 

Gordon has yet to crack .700 OPS in the pros as a 5th overall draft pick, while (at least) 3 players who were drafted below him are on their way to stardom as major leaguers.   He cannot help that fact, but...

Edited January 19, 2016 by Thrylos

[drjim]

 

Results.

 

Same age in Etown:

 

Gordon: .294/.333/.366

Palacios: .336/.345/.507

 

Quick. Pick. One.

 

Gordon has yet to crack .700 OPS in the pros as a 5th overall draft pick, while (at least) 3 players who were drafted below him are on their way to stardom as major leaguers.   He cannot help that fact, but...

 

I don't know if it's fair to compare a guys first pro season to second, and rate stats when there is about a 2 to 1 difference in PA is a little dicey.

 

I would still pick Gordon.

[Ncgo4]

I guess we know why we can love and hate our Twins GM at the same time, eh?  We can express our opinions but he has to act on his.

[TRex]

 

Results.

 

Same age in Etown:

 

Gordon: .294/.333/.366

Palacios: .336/.345/.507

 

Quick. Pick. One.

 

Gordon has yet to crack .700 OPS in the pros as a 5th overall draft pick, while (at least) 3 players who were drafted below him are on their way to stardom as major leaguers.   He cannot help that fact, but...

You conveniently left out any reference to their relative ability to play SS, and a comparison of Gordon at SS and Palacios at 3B (or 1B) is apples and oranges.

 

Maybe you asked for a quick response so people wouldn't contemplate such vagaries.

 

[Han Joelo]

 

Results.

 

Same age in Etown:

 

Gordon: .294/.333/.366

Palacios: .336/.345/.507

 

Quick. Pick. One.

 

Gordon has yet to crack .700 OPS in the pros as a 5th overall draft pick, while (at least) 3 players who were drafted below him are on their way to stardom as major leaguers.   He cannot help that fact, but...

Luckily the Twins don't have to pick one, they've already picked both.  That dilemma may become relevant if a trade proposal comes up, but for now, I'm happy to be fans of both.

 

Here's one for you:
Pick one--Parent X's kid:  Reading at a second grade level in kindergarten.

                My kid:  not.
Which one will grow up to be a writer?  Or a scientist?  

 

My point being, there are people behind the numbers.  Room for analytics AND scouting.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Luckily the Twins don't have to pick one, they've already picked both.  That dilemma may become relevant if a trade proposal comes up, but for now, I'm happy to be fans of both.

 

Here's one for you:
Pick one--Parent X's kid:  Reading at a second grade level in kindergarten.

                My kid:  not.
Which one will grow up to be a writer?  Or a scientist?  

 

My point being, there are people behind the numbers.  Room for analytics AND scouting.

 

Great comment!

[dxpavelka]

 

The question you are trying to answer for 2017, is similar to the one I have been trying to answer for 2016, since most people's prospects for 2016 have graduated my list, as they have played in the majors.  I posted 6-10 today, and 1-5 tomorrow (so go there in a day to see it,)  and will let that stand as an answer.

 

The only additional comment I have is if Buxton has not graduated as a prospect already, I see Berrios and Kepler having hard time graduating as prospects with the same criteria.  Kepler will not be a fourth outfielder and Berrios will not be in the pen.  And a lot of changes, including trades and/or injuries will have to happen for those two to make the Twins in 2016, before the "consider a prospect" deadline...

No guarantee of success for Kepler, Berrios or any other prospect.  Bullpens around the majors a littered with guys who once had the same expectations as Berrios does now.  See:  May, Trevor.  Some of those guys are even in minor league bullpens.  See:  Meyer, Alex.

Edited January 20, 2016 by dxpavelka