Article: The Cases Against Signing Antonio Bastardo Long-Term

[Thrylos]

Cannot compare Bastardo to that whole slew of pitchers, because, y'know, most of them are righties.

 

The Twins need a lefty set up guy.  Three ways to skin that cat:

 

a. Go outside the organization. 

If that is the case, I would be talking to the Rays about Jake McGee who apparently is available, before I sign Bastardo (and I have seen enough of Bastardo with the Phillies and their AAA and AA affiliates to say, that I'd rather see Duensing than him.)

 

b. hope that one of Rogers/Melotakis or the 4 LHRP MiLB they signed wins the job in Spring Training

 

c. Hand the job to Perkins and look for a closer.

 

 

It it were me making the decisions, I'd go for c, but the Storen bird flew and there are not many in play, other than the aforementioned McGee (and Boxberger; and he scares me).   (And McGee scares me for that -3 mph too).  So:  Hand the closer job to Phil Hughes (remember he was lights out setting up Rivera for a year), have Perkins and Jepsen as the LH and RH set up men and b. above, hope that one of those 6 arms has an amazing Spring.

[Jack Goin]

They think you're working on an abacus.

That's not a legitimate concern.

[tobi0040]

I hear and read this a lot on this site. I would love to know what you believe other teams are working on that we are not working oh

This kind of reminds me in movies when someone is talking about someone and they are standing behind them and listening!

 

But to your question, I can only go off of the information that I have access to. So I don't know what you are working on or what other teams are. I am only privvy to what I see in media reports and hear when our GM speaks.

 

Based on the Beradino article I linked to earlier in the thread, he said you founded the analytics department in 2009. If that is accurate, the Twins were behind the curve in terms of years. Oakland was in the late 90's, Boston was purchased by an algorithmic trader in 2002 who immediately put an analytic stamp on that team.

 

Our current GM and manager until a year ago have always sounded skeptical towards SABR metrics. That has been well documented.

 

The last thing I have to go off is a ranking that ESPN did where they ranked all the teams in baseball based on their use of analysis. They ranked the Twins 3rd lowest in the league, noting the skepticism from Ryan and Gardy.

 

With that I would be more than happy to get your take on how the Twins have been characterized on this topic and whether it is fair or not. It would be very interesting to me

 

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings

[USAFChief]

That's not a legitimate concern.

In all seriousness...do you feel the bullpen is a weak spot? If so, (since we're in a thread about Bastardo), do you feel that LH relief pitching is a specific 2016 weakness, and would adding a quality LHer lessen those concerns?

[nicksaviking]

I'm cheering for the young guys Rogers or Melotakis to get the gig, but I'm predicting it will be Abad and by the All Star break we'll be talking about an extension on this site.

 

He was a pretty nice pitcher in 2013 and 2014. Looks like he tried to add a cutter last year at the expense of his curve. Not sure if there's any correlation but it is listed as a negative pitch.

[zchrz]

Out of the young arms who is going to be the future closer?  If they are looking at it long term, the best outcome is probably Perkins becomes your setup lefty because Burdi? Meyer? Landa? May? has supplanted him as closer.  I would have liked them to get a legitimate 8th inning guy but 3+ years is a lot. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm cheering for the young guys Rogers or Melotakis to get the gig, but I'm predicting it will be Abad and by the All Star break we'll be talking about an extension on this site.

 

I was with you up until the extension. Abad has been downright awful vs LHB 3 of the 4 seasons. I don't think he will find great success here, and I worry we might miscast him as a lefty specialist too.

[Jack Goin]

 

This kind of reminds me in movies when someone is talking about someone and they are standing behind them and listening!

But to your question, I can only go off of the information that I have access to. So I don't know what you are working on or what other teams are. I am only privvy to what I see in media reports and hear when our GM speaks.

Based on the Beradino article I linked to earlier in the thread, he said you founded the analytics department in 2009. If that is accurate, the Twins were behind the curve in terms of years. Oakland was in the late 90's, Boston was purchased by an algorithmic trader in 2002 who immediately put an analytic stamp on that team.

Our current GM and manager until a year ago have always sounded skeptical towards SABR metrics. That has been well documented.

The last thing I have to go off is a ranking that ESPN did where they ranked all the teams in baseball based on their use of analysis. They ranked the Twins 3rd lowest in the league, noting the skepticism from Ryan and Gardy.

With that I would be more than happy to get your take on how the Twins have been characterized on this topic and whether it is fair or not. It would be very interesting to me

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings

A couple of things. Then why state as fact we are 10-15 years behind the industry? Oakland didn't have an analytics department in the '90's. Nobody did. Boston didn't form an analytics department until the last few years. Their front office members and scouts were supposed to be up to date. They had a couple of guys in the office working on projects.

Terry is always going to speak like a scout. That is who is he is at his core. Their is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Now he is a decision maker so he depends on our department to provide him info.

Unfortunately the ESPN article was a disappointment. Ben cherry picked a quote by Terry right after he came back as GM and then picked a quote from Gardy who was no longer our manager. He didn't talk with Paul. I would hope we come out better in the 2016 analytics issue. 

[Jack Goin]

 

Translation. 

 

Bastardo is not on our team so the walks are a concern.  We traded for Jepsen so they are not a concern.

 

I just wish the Twins would factor in everything, BB per 9 along side k per 9, and hits per 9.  It seems to me that walks are not as big of a concern with a guy that can strike guys out.

No, it means a guy who is walking 3.0 per 9 or so is walking a guy between every third and fifth game. Not as concerning in the 7th. As you said though, a guy who strikes out a lot of hitters can take care of the extra base runners themselves so it isn't as much of a concern. 

We do take into account everything with relievers. K's, BB's, pitch types, Statcast info, actual vs. expected numbers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No, it means a guy who is walking 3.0 per 9 or so is walking a guy between every third and fifth game. Not as concerning in the 7th. As you said though, a guy who strikes out a lot of hitters can take care of the extra base runners themselves so it isn't as much of a concern. 

We do take into account everything with relievers. K's, BB's, pitch types, Statcast info, actual vs. expected numbers.

 

Just a question, but would be allowed to talk about what all goes into signing a free agent?  Obviously, if there's proprietary stuff there, leave it out.  But I'd really be curious what goes into how the team came to a decision to sign say Luke Hughes and Rickey Nolasco. what went right, not just with the decision itself, but the process, red flags,  reasons for  doing it, etc.

 

what went wrong, etc. 

 

I'd really be  curious. I'm sure it's not as simple as just doing it.

[tobi0040]

A couple of things. Then why state as fact we are 10-15 years behind the industry? Oakland didn't have an analytics department in the '90's. Nobody did. Boston didn't form an analytics department until the last few years. Their front office members and scouts were supposed to be up to date. They had a couple of guys in the office working on projects.

Terry is always going to speak like a scout. That is who is he is at his core. Their is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Now he is a decision maker so he depends on our department to provide him info.

Unfortunately the ESPN article was a disappointment. Ben cherry picked a quote by Terry right after he came back as GM and then picked a quote from Gardy who was no longer our manager. He didn't talk with Paul. I would hope we come out better in the 2016 analytics issue.

Whether Boston or Oakland had departments or people working on projects, they were using data to make decisions in ways that the Twins were not. Rob Anthony did say in 2012 said the twins "were one of the last, if not the last team to address statistical analysis with a person dedicated solely to that"

 

Additionally, a team can have a department but if the manager is not a believer, then it doesn't really matter. At least not the in game strategy portion such as defensive shifting.

 

In 2003, Gardy was quoted as saying "numbers lie and I have a hard time believing all these stats. When a scout shows me the stats I show them the door". For example, I am guessing your team was pounding the table on the benefits of defensive shifting, but the twins were 26th in 2014. I am very happy that changed last year with Molitor.

Edited January 17, 2016 by tobi0040

[Thrylos]

 

No, it means a guy who is walking 3.0 per 9 or so is walking a guy between every third and fifth game. Not as concerning in the 7th. As you said though, a guy who strikes out a lot of hitters can take care of the extra base runners themselves so it isn't as much of a concern. 

We do take into account everything with relievers. K's, BB's, pitch types, Statcast info, actual vs. expected numbers.

 

That does make sense, but some pitchers like Bastardo will have 3 great games in a row and in the fourth they will walk 3-4 in a row.   That was his biggest issue in Philly.   Of course, if he does not have "it" one  day, it should be obvious to the manager that he does not and get him out of there long enough to make enough damage (which was not always the case in Philly; and based on the way Perkins was handled in the second half, I suspect will not be the case with the Twins.)  

 

You cannot really see this in cumulative numbers, other than individual game performances...

[diehardtwinsfan]

problem to me is how many at bats do you give him to see if he has it? 

 

1?

 

2? 

 

3? 

 

A manager isn't going to give the hook after 2 batters, and by the 3rd you're in trouble

[Thrylos]

 

problem to me is how many at bats do you give him to see if he has it? 

 

1?

 

2? 

 

3? 

 

A manager isn't going to give the hook after 2 batters, and by the 3rd you're in trouble

 

It's more than PAs.  Bastardo's BBs are of the 4-0, 4-1 variety.  I'd give the hook after 8 balls in a row and the Catcher should know what is going on as well.

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Thrylos

[Kwak]

 

problem to me is how many at bats do you give him to see if he has it? 

 

1?

 

2? 

 

3? 

 

A manager isn't going to give the hook after 2 batters, and by the 3rd you're in trouble

I remember Mitch Williams coming in to close, walk the first three and then strike the next three out.  BB's and for that matter, K's, are simply interesting statistics.  What actually matters is--did the pitcher pitch a scoreless inning and get the "save"?  

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for coming in, Jack.

 

Fair or not, we can only go by what you all make public. It was just a few years ago that your assistant GM didn't even know what some stats were in an interview. That may have influenced some of us to question the organization's commitment to math......However, I think it is clear that things have changed over the years, and the key now is where are you now. I remain hopeful that the organization is using every tool available to improve. 

 

Have a great day.

[Jack Goin]

 

That does make sense, but some pitchers like Bastardo will have 3 great games in a row and in the fourth they will walk 3-4 in a row.   That was his biggest issue in Philly.   Of course, if he does not have "it" one  day, it should be obvious to the manager that he does not and get him out of there long enough to make enough damage (which was not always the case in Philly; and based on the way Perkins was handled in the second half, I suspect will not be the case with the Twins.)  

 

You cannot really see this in cumulative numbers, other than individual game performances...

I think a lot of relievers follow this same pattern. The manager and pitching coaches confidence level in the pitcher will dictate how long the leash is. Also, who is not available that day, etc..

[Jack Goin]

Thanks for coming in, Jack.

 

Fair or not, we can only go by what you all make public. It was just a few years ago that your assistant GM didn't even know what some stats were in an interview. That may have influenced some of us to question the organization's commitment to math......However, I think it is clear that things have changed over the years, and the key now is where are you now. I remain hopeful that the organization is using every tool available to improve. 

 

Have a great day.

Mike, that interview was done during Spring Training of 2010 I believe. I understand that was a first impression and for many fans that is what sticks in their mind. Rob admits that wasn't one his finest hours and knows that has contributed to our image.

[Jack Goin]

Whether Boston or Oakland had departments or people working on projects, they were using data to make decisions in ways that the Twins were not. Rob Anthony did say in 2012 said the twins "were one of the last, if not the last team to address statistical analysis with a person dedicated solely to that"

Additionally, a team can have a department but if the manager is not a believer, then it doesn't really matter. At least not the in game strategy portion such as defensive shifting.

In 2003, Gardy was quoted as saying "numbers lie and I have a hard time believing all these stats. When a scout shows me the stats I show them the door". For example, I am guessing your team was pounding the table on the benefits of defensive shifting, but the twins were 26th in 2014. I am very happy that changed last year with Molitor.

I switched full-time in 2011. I had been working on various projects for 3 years maybe before that. Maybe two. The Phillies, Marlins, Tigers for sure didn't have someone at that time. Joe Sheehan had just started with the Blue Jays. I think teams like the Rangers and Braves had a person or two working on things but nobody focused on analytics. I think around 2010 or 2011 was around the time that teams not named the Rays, Pirates, or Cardinals started to understand they needed to do something in this area.

 

There are other areas analytics can make an impact besides the field. gardy in the end started to realize that and having Paul and his staff has definitely helped in areas. Jos Vavra started implementing shifts, Paul expanded it, and Gene Glynn has done even more. Just knowing where we were when I started up until now, the changes have been pretty good.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, that interview was done during Spring Training of 2010 I believe. I understand that was a first impression and for many fans that is what sticks in their mind. Rob admits that wasn't one his finest hours and knows that has contributed to our image.

 

Again, thanks, and, I can imagine Rob would like those 20 - 30 minutes back. I actually felt kind of bad for him. Like I said, whether you were behind or not doesn't matter any more......what matters is where you are now, and where you plan to go.

[tobi0040]

 

Just knowing where we were when I started up until now, the changes have been pretty good.

 

That is great to hear. Thanks for your input. 

[Sir_Eugene11]

 

Again, thanks, and, I can imagine Rob would like those 20 - 30 minutes back. I actually felt kind of bad for him. Like I said, whether you were behind or not doesn't matter any more......what matters is where you are now, and where you plan to go.

I'm not familiar with that interview. Is this what you were referring to?

 

http://www.startribune.com/q-and-a-assistant-gm-rob-antony/88887222/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not familiar with that interview. Is this what you were referring to?

 

http://www.startribune.com/q-and-a-assistant-gm-rob-antony/88887222/

Yes.  The full version is archived here:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20100331074828/http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2010/03/twins-and-statistical-analysis.html

[nicksaviking]

Just a preemptive reminder, let's please not derail this thread going crazy on that old interview. I think it's quite safe to assume that if we as fans have a better grasp and more knowledge of baseball statistical analysis than we did a half decade ago, Rob Anthony surely does as well.

 

Edit: I'm not implying anyone has done anything wrong here.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just a preemptive reminder, let's please not derail this thread going crazy on that old interview. I think it's quite safe to assume that if we as fans have a better grasp and more knowledge of baseball statistical analysis than we did a half decade ago, Rob Anthony surely does as well.

 

Edit: I'm not implying anyone has done anything wrong here.

 

I get it, you hate me.

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[nicksaviking]

 

I get it, you hate me.

 

 

No I just re-read the article and saw lightening rods sticking up throughout the interview.

 

Looks like Jack's got you whipped into shape anyway!

[jharaldson]

Hello Mr. Goin,

 

Thanks for taking some time out of your day to participate on this forum.  I have a question regarding Bastardo with an assumption that we do not sign him.  How closely do you follow guys like him after missing out?  I assume that each offseason you go into that you only have a small list of free agents that you have real interest in due to cost, need, ect....  After missing out on most of them do you follow them over the next few years to see if your analytics and scouting got it right or if you mis-valued the player?  A classic example of this that I always wondered about happened in 2009, your first year on the job full time I think.  The Twins made a hard stance on Casey Blake that they would give him 2 years but not 3 and lost him to the Dodgers.  The Twins went on to sign Crede who had a very frustrating and injury filled year with the Twins while Blake went on to have 1 great, 1 good, and 1 mediocre year in LA.  Did your team do retrospective analysis on your assessment of him and the offer the Twins made?  If not, do you anticipate doing so with some of the relief free agents like Bastardo that the Twins have missed out on?  Thank you for your time!

[Mike Sixel]

 

No I just re-read the article and saw lightening rods sticking up throughout the interview.

 

Looks like Jack's got you whipped into shape anyway!

 

Ya, re-reading it is fascinating in some ways. And yes, it could create a chain of threads. And yes, Jack was nice enough to respond. I imagine he's a pretty nice guy.

[Squirrel]

 

I get it, you hate me.

 

Go eat some cheese and celebrate yourself.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Go eat some cheese and celebrate yourself.

 

Stalker.