Article: The Cases Against Signing Antonio Bastardo Long-Term

[nicksaviking]

 

I might agree with you if we actually saw the young pitchers last year.  Rogers (or Berrios) and Meyer clearly showed with their 2015 performance that they deserved a chance to help bolster the pen late in the year.  Why should we trust the 2016 team to aggressively promote guys who haven't even reached that level of accomplishment yet?

 

I realize I'm asking for a philosophical change that emphasizes skill and upside over experience. I also realize philosophical changes are laboriously slow to occur in the real world.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wait... Mike and I agree... I want the Twins to sometimes trust and stick with the young guys. 

 

Rogers is the one that I think is ready right from the beginning. I do think Tonkin should be trusted for a full 2 month stretch to see if he can become what they hope (we hope) or not. I think Fien and Pressly are worth sticking with. Fien to see if he can return to 2013 and first four months of 2014 form. Pressly, again, because he has shown at times that he can be good with an opportunity. He was just about there last year when he got hurt.

 

I'd guess we agree on 80-90% of the stuff......

[Kwak]

Much of the discussion is based on the myth that KC wins because of their bullpen.  NO!  They are much better than that.  Their team defense and speed is excellent permitting them to record the outs that should happen and some of those that appeared unlikely.  They "gut things out"--frequently coming from behind to win.  They "add-on"--not coasting but continuing to score.  Contrast to Twins teams of the past (and dare I say 2015 also)--are teams of momentum.  When things go well (like May) they really go well--but if the "wind shifts", the trend continues, witness the end of '11, '12, and '13.  Character is developed over time--and the Twins need seasoning. 

 

Spending the owner's money for veteran pieces is fine--until he holds management accountable.  The commitment to Park is comparable to the proposed level for Bastardo--if normalized out to 4 years.  Which helps the Twins more--an every day hitter, or a one-inning set-up relief pitcher?  As the article points out (OK it does read like a press release) there are plenty of options and one (maybe two) is all that is needed.  The Twins bullpen is not wretched and the internal options also demonstrate management's commitment to careers for prospects.  That provides incentives for the prospects to focus on success because their really is a path forward.  The FO has boasted about their system--now rely on it!

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'd guess we agree on 80-90% of the stuff......

 

I think that's probably right.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rogers is the one that I think is ready right from the beginning. I do think Tonkin should be trusted for a full 2 month stretch to see if he can become what they hope (we hope) or not. I think Fien and Pressly are worth sticking with. Fien to see if he can return to 2013 and first four months of 2014 form. Pressly, again, because he has shown at times that he can be good with an opportunity. He was just about there last year when he got hurt.

So if Rogers is ready, Tonkin deserves two months, and Fien and Pressly are both worth sticking with, that doesn't leave much room for Burdi, Chargois, or Melotakis by May 1st as suggested in another thread, does it?

 

Also, how much trust and upside do you realistically have in Tonkin, Fien, and Pressly at this point?  Even if they stick and contribute something, it's getting harder and harder to envision a scenario where those guys help at the top of the pen, which was sort of the problem with the 2015 bullpen to begin with.  Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin were fine in 2015, Boyer was great, even Duensing, Graham, and Thompson managed to be decent for stretches -- yet none of those acceptable performances mattered much when we needed help at the top of the pen in the stretch drive.

 

Frankly, this team should be adding a guy who could realistically and immediately be trusted to slot in near the top, and letting the above guys duke it out for the lower leverage spots with the new faces looking to get their feet wet.  With so few guaranteed contractual commitments, we're at no risk of too many talented players for too few spots.  But we need help at the top right away, and we need an opportunity to evaluate guys for future top end, high leverage duty.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The commitment to Park is comparable to the proposed level for Bastardo--if normalized out to 4 years.  Which helps the Twins more--an every day hitter, or a one-inning set-up relief pitcher? 

I wasn't aware the Twins could only afford one or the other.  Also, Park has yet to actually demonstrate he is an MLB hitter to the degree that Bastardo has demonstrated he is a MLB pitcher, not to mention whether a DH really helps the Twins with Sano ticketed for the OF.

 

The Twins bullpen is not wretched

 

"Not wretched" is a uselessly low standard when building the bullpen of a hopefully competitive team.  And it's not just an issue of quality -- it's also depth, both in 2016 and beyond.  We all love Perkins, Jepsen, and May at the moment, but one of those guys has recently seen his health and career go in the wrong direction, and the other two quite possibly won't be a part of the 2017 Twins bullpen.

 

You might need 2 guys to emerge soon as plus relievers from your minor leagues just to offset those losses and maintain the "not wretched" status quo.  It would be even more difficult to actually try to make a plus bullpen soon out of these parts.

[Seth Stohs]

 

So if Rogers is ready, Tonkin deserves two months, and Fien and Pressly are both worth sticking with, that doesn't leave much room for Burdi, Chargois, or Melotakis by May 1st as suggested in another thread, does it?

 

Being Ready and Gettiing Called Up are not the same thing. 

[tobi0040]

 

Frankly, this team should be adding a guy who could realistically and immediately be trusted to slot in near the top, and letting the above guys duke it out for the lower leverage spots with the new faces looking to get their feet wet.  With so few guaranteed contractual commitments, we're at no risk of too many talented players for too few spots.  But we need help at the top right away, and we need an opportunity to evaluate guys for future top end, high leverage duty.

 

Completely agree.

 

Any time you can add a guy that is better than most of what you have....and it wont be a financially crippling signing, then they have my blessing (which is utterly worthless of course)

[TRex]

 

I didn't forget Duffey... I just think that it would be silly - though not completely impossible - for him not to be in the starting rotation to start the season. 

What happens if Berrios is deemed ready and starts the season with the Twins? Are you telling me that the rotation consists of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey and Berrios; and that Nolasco and Milone are in the pen or released? Silly or not, I think Duffey is most likely to start in the pen in that scenario. And can we really say it is 'silly' for an established starter to start the year in the rotation and make the 'better' youngster start in the pen when it happens in the MLB quite regularly?

 

I am sure before the 2015 season started, many would have said that Travis May to the bullpen was also silly, but yet it happened. And it happened even though May wasn't the least effective starter at the time, because Paul Molitor is so silly. If he wasn't so silly, we might have made it to the postseason last year!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Being Ready and Gettiing Called Up are not the same thing. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but the implication was that by not signing a FA reliever, those pitchers would be called up when ready, and the Twins were expecting that to be early.

 

If you're not calling them up when ready, not signing a FA reliever, and giving nice long leashes to Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin... arg...

[Parker Hageman]

First, walks bug me. I like strikeouts as much as anyone, but walks annoy me. Bastardo is entertaining to watch as he can be completely dominant at times, but at other times he can be equally frustrating.

 

 

They bug me too. Particularly from late innings guys who are coming in to tight games. HOWEVER, that doesn't seem to bug Terry Ryan (or at least that's what he claimed in his offseason interview):

 

PH: [Kevin Jepsen] reduced his walk rate too. Is that something that Neil Allen worked with?

 

TR: I’m going to tell you something about that walk rate. Of course, when you’ve got a relief pitcher and you look at his walk rate, it’s sometimes large. Well, that may be one walk every two appearances. So his walk rate looks a little higher. If it was a starting pitcher, it would concern me a helluva lot more. But when you’ve got a relief pitcher and he gets out there about 60 games and his walk rate is about four, well that’s not quite as bad as if that was a starter.

 

PH: But now you’ve got a runner on base in a late-inning situation, probably in a close game, right?

 

TR: Well, he was a seventh, eighth inning guy for Tampa. So it didn’t concern us quite as much. If it was a closer, it would concern me a helluva lot more. You don’t want to get free passes on a closer, for sure. We’ve gone that path before. That used to really concern me when you’ve got a guy in the ninth and he’s issuing free passes.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but the implication was that by not signing a FA reliever, those pitchers would be called up when ready, and the Twins were expecting that to be early.

 

If you're not calling them up when ready, not signing a FA reliever, and giving nice long leashes to Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin... arg...

 

When ready and when there is a need. I mean, if Fien and Tonkin are pitching great, no need to get rid of them.

[nicksaviking]

 

So if Rogers is ready, Tonkin deserves two months, and Fien and Pressly are both worth sticking with, that doesn't leave much room for Burdi, Chargois, or Melotakis by May 1st as suggested in another thread, does it?

 

Also, how much trust and upside do you realistically have in Tonkin, Fien, and Pressly at this point?  Even if they stick and contribute something, it's getting harder and harder to envision a scenario where those guys help at the top of the pen, which was sort of the problem with the 2015 bullpen to begin with.  Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin were fine in 2015, Boyer was great, even Duensing, Graham, and Thompson managed to be decent for stretches -- yet none of those acceptable performances mattered much when we needed help at the top of the pen in the stretch drive.

 

Frankly, this team should be adding a guy who could realistically and immediately be trusted to slot in near the top, and letting the above guys duke it out for the lower leverage spots with the new faces looking to get their feet wet.  With so few guaranteed contractual commitments, we're at no risk of too many talented players for too few spots.  But we need help at the top right away, and we need an opportunity to evaluate guys for future top end, high leverage duty.

 

The problem is, adding a guy isn't going to be pushing Fein/Tonkin/Pressly out, it will be pushing the higher upside but untested prospects out, who unlike Fein/Tonkin/Pressly have the stuff to be a late inning guy. The team just has to stop thinking that experience trumps strikeout ability when there's guys on 2nd and 3rd and no outs. They just have to.

[tobi0040]

 

They bug me too. Particularly from late innings guys who are coming in to tight games. HOWEVER, that doesn't seem to bug Terry Ryan (or at least that's what he claimed in his offseason interview):

 

PH: [Kevin Jepsen] reduced his walk rate too. Is that something that Neil Allen worked with?

 

TR: I’m going to tell you something about that walk rate. Of course, when you’ve got a relief pitcher and you look at his walk rate, it’s sometimes large. Well, that may be one walk every two appearances. So his walk rate looks a little higher. If it was a starting pitcher, it would concern me a helluva lot more. But when you’ve got a relief pitcher and he gets out there about 60 games and his walk rate is about four, well that’s not quite as bad as if that was a starter.

 

PH: But now you’ve got a runner on base in a late-inning situation, probably in a close game, right?

 

TR: Well, he was a seventh, eighth inning guy for Tampa. So it didn’t concern us quite as much. If it was a closer, it would concern me a helluva lot more. You don’t want to get free passes on a closer, for sure. We’ve gone that path before. That used to really concern me when you’ve got a guy in the ninth and he’s issuing free passes.

 

Translation. 

 

Bastardo is not on our team so the walks are a concern.  We traded for Jepsen so they are not a concern.

 

I just wish the Twins would factor in everything, BB per 9 along side k per 9, and hits per 9.  It seems to me that walks are not as big of a concern with a guy that can strike guys out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The problem is, adding a guy isn't going to be pushing Fein/Tonkin/Pressly out, it will be pushing the higher upside but untested prospects out, who unlike Fein/Tonkin/Pressly have the stuff to be a late inning guy. The team just has to stop thinking that experience trumps strikeout ability when there's guys on 2nd and 3rd and no outs. They just have to.

Yeah, it gets back to the philosophical thing.  I wouldn't necessarily care about adding a FA reliever if I felt like this team was really working hard to improve the pen (and not necessarily at the expense of the rotation).  They've obviously been drafting relievers, but closer to the MLB level it seems more like they are just doing the same old, same old, and crossing their fingers hoping for those draftees to come in and save the day.  I don't think the MLB bullpen should really be subject to the exact same long-term "rebuilding" strategies as, say, the lineup or the rotation.

[Willihammer]

Would anyone be surprised if Perkins hit the 60 day DL again in 2016 or 2017? He had a neck thing and an arm thing in 2015 IIRC. He is getting old, the velo isn't there as much. Shlubby. I'd definitely plan on him tailing off over the next 3 years.

 

Re: Bastardo - Full picture - he had 8 WPs last year in 57 IP. 20 in the 216 IP before that. That's a lot. By comparison, Kyle Gibson had 7 in almost 200 IP and we all know how he can lose command at times. I love strikeouts and I'd take Bastardo on a 2 year deal but you would have to concede that he will move runners along the bases in crucial moments a couple times each year.

[nicksaviking]

 

 I don't think the MLB bullpen should really be subject to the exact same long-term "rebuilding" strategies as, say, the lineup or the rotation.

 

I agree, it's probably not fair to the players themselves, but relievers are so fungible and inflammable that the bullpen really is an ever changing social experiment even for the best of teams. Trial and error, see who works and who doesn't, they all have options so it's not like they only have one shot to make it. And it's not like anyone should ever be worried about service time for a relief pitcher.

 

For the most part these guys throw hard and have only two pitches, there shouldn't be half the concern about developing these guys like there would be for a starter and if these guys had a better repertoire or better mechanics, they'd be a starter. No need for a lot of tinkering.

[howieramone2]

 

Translation. 

 

Bastardo is not on our team so the walks are a concern.  We traded for Jepsen so they are not a concern.

 

I just wish the Twins would factor in everything, BB per 9 along side k per 9, and hits per 9.  It seems to me that walks are not as big of a concern with a guy that can strike guys out.

They do. His name is Jack Goin and he has a staff of 8.

[tobi0040]

 

Would anyone be surprised if Perkins hit the 60 day DL again in 2016 or 2017? He had a neck thing and an arm thing in 2015 IIRC. He is getting old, the velo isn't there as much. Shlubby. I'd definitely plan on him tailing off over the next 3 years.

 

Re: Bastardo - Full picture - he had 8 WPs last year in 57 IP. 20 in the 216 IP before that. That's a lot. By comparison, Kyle Gibson had 7 in almost 200 IP and we all know how he can lose command at times. I love strikeouts and I'd take Bastardo on a 2 year deal but you would have to concede that he will move runners along the bases in crucial moments a couple times each year.

 

In fairness, a guy that has 11 K per 9 may be more wild than one with about 6.

[tobi0040]

 

They do. His name is Jack Goin and he has a staff of 8.

 

Just out of curiousity,how do you think the Twins quant staff ranks relative to the rest of the league? 

 

Best I can tell, we were 10-15 years behind the curve on this one and some of the folks in other teams departments are on another level in terms of size and pedigree.

Edited January 15, 2016 by tobi0040

[howieramone2]

 

Just out of curiousity,how do you think the Twins quant staff ranks relative to the rest of the league? 

 

Best I can tell, we were 10-15 years behind the curve on this one and some of the folks in other teams departments are on another level in terms of size and pedigree.

Jack said somewhere in the middle. Can you do better than just tell, and instead using math and science, show the members how you can possibly know our favorite team is 10-15 years behind the curve? I do hear such things on the board periodically, but no one has ever provided any form of evidence. Is it fact, or just another one of the board's myths?

[tobi0040]

 

Jack said somewhere in the middle. Can you do better than just tell, and instead using math and science, show the members how you can possibly know our favorite team is 10-15 years behind the curve? I do hear such things on the board periodically, but no one has ever provided any form of evidence. Is it fact, or just another one of the board's myths?

 

 

I don’t have time to really do the research.  So here is a snapshot with five minutes of research.  I would also suggest asking the guy how his department fares to his competition is probably not the best way to compare.

 

-Bill James started writing about SABR metrics in the early 80’s.  He was hired by Boston in 2003.

 

-The book Moneyball was written in 2003, highlighting Oakland’s use of metrics in the late 90’s.

 

-Goin founded the analytics department in 2009.  Like many of the other folks in the Twins front office, he worked his way up from completely unrelated areas of the business (in this case ticket sales).

 

-Please start reading about the backgrounds of the folks in the Houston, St. Louis, Boston, Dodgers, Cubs, and other front offices and compare them with Jack Goin.

 

http://www.twincities.com/ci_23098690/minnesota-twins-join-moneyball-era-behind-mystery-man

 

 

[nicksaviking]

**Moderator Note**

 

If we're going to be talking about analytics in this thread it should be contained to Antonio Bastardo or perhaps the players we may prefer in his place. I'm sure someone can dig up one of the hundreds of old Twins analytical tendency threads if this debate really needs to be rehashed. These conversations nearly always derail the topic at hand.

[TheLeviathan]

I wish we would've gotten in on relievers that weren't Bastardo.  Part of the reason we have to contemplate signing a lemon is that we didn't do anything sooner.

[USAFChief]

 

 ... we didn't do anything sooner.

and were told "not to worry...plenty of options left."

[nicksaviking]

 

I wish we would've gotten in on relievers that weren't Bastardo.  Part of the reason we have to contemplate signing a lemon is that we didn't do anything sooner.

 

I did want Mark Lowe and his 95-96 MPH heater. He only got a 2 year deal which would have been more appealing to me.

[Kwak]

BB/9 innings shouldn't be the metric to evaluate RPs--try scoreless innings.  The guy's job is to pitch one inning--especially a scoreless inning.  If he walks someone--so what?  Pitching around a batter (BB) can be sound strategy for a one inning stint--yet it will become a stat at the end of the season.

[h2oface]

"Since 2010, his ERA+ have been 96, 146, 94, 163, 95, and then 129 in 2015."

 

This is his off year coming up. Don't sign him. 

[Jack Goin]

 

Just out of curiousity,how do you think the Twins quant staff ranks relative to the rest of the league? 

 

Best I can tell, we were 10-15 years behind the curve on this one and some of the folks in other teams departments are on another level in terms of size and pedigree.

I hear and read this a lot on this site. I would love to know what you believe other teams are working on that we are not working on. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I hear and read this a lot on this site. I would love to know what you believe other teams are working on that we are not working on. 

They think you're working on an abacus.