Article: The Cases Against Signing Antonio Bastardo Long-Term

[Seth Stohs]

Many wonder why the Minnesota Twins haven’t signed lefty-reliever Antonio Bastardo. Similar to Tony Sipp, who re-signed with the Astros for three years and $18 million, Bastardo remains unsigned. He is said to be looking for a similar contract. So, why haven’t the Twins been said to be in the conversation, at least not heavily?

 

There are a few good, legitimate reasons. Some good reasons involving Bastardo, and several more good reasons because of other, internal options.

 

Although Bastardo has struck out 11 batters per nine innings, he also has walked 4.3 batters per nine innings. That’s a lot of strikeouts, but it’s also a lot of walks.Per Doogie Wolfson in his most recent episode of The Scoops on 1500 ESPN’s podcast network, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Bastardo situation. Wolfson said he has been told by those in the know that the Twins are interested in Bastardo at one year and $3-4 million.

 

As a Twins fan who also keeps fairly close tabs on the minor leagues, I fully support this decision. First, walks bug me. I like strikeouts as much as anyone, but walks annoy me. Bastardo is entertaining to watch as he can be completely dominant at times, but at other times he can be equally frustrating.

 

The nature of relief pitchers is such that you never really know what you’re going to get. Tony Sipp was a great example of that. He was mediocre at best in his first six seasons, with Cleveland. But in his two years with the Astros, he has been very good.

 

Bastardo’s career can be summarized simply by looking at his ERA+ in his six full seasons with the Pirates. Since 2010, his ERA+ have been 96, 146, 94, 163, 95, and then 129 in 2015. Of course, we know that ERA isn’t necessarily the best way to note how a reliever pitches. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers have been between 2.76 and 3.34 in those years.

 

I’d be fine with the Twins signing Antonio Bastardo, but I personally agree that a one-year deal is more ideal than a three year deal. In fact, I would make the case that I’d be fine with a one year, $7 million deal rather than a three year, $18 million deal. And, as much as we (many Twins fans) just want the Twins to sign Bastardo because we are comfortable with a three year, $18 million deal. The other thing to remember is that no team has been willing to offer him the three year, $18 million contract that he is said to be looking for.

 

The other reason that I feel fully comfortable with the Twins saying they are willing to only go one year on Bastardo is because, as someone who follows the team’s farm system, there are some high-upside, power arms coming and soon.

 

Last week, Wolfson tweeted, “Radcliff sites Reed, Chargois, Burdi, Rogers, Melotakis, Landa, as all being close. On Landa, ‘Will open eyes this spring.’”

 

While I believe that Landa has incredible upside because he throws upper-90s gas, I would be surprised if he was ready before mid-2017. The others? I think all five of those are guys who could be ready by mid-season 2016.

• I think Taylor Rogers is ready for a reliever role in the Twins bullpen right away. The main reason to start him in AAA would just be to get him used to working in the bullpen after starting his entire career.
• The hope was that Nick Burdi might be ready last year. He really struggled, but then came on strong late in the season and continued that domination in the Arizona Fall League. He made some adjustment, and threw more strikes. He may be given a shot at an Opening Day roster spot, but I would think he could be up before June 1.
• JT Chargois missed all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with elbow issues and eventually Tommy John surgery. He returned to Instructional League after the 2014 season and was hitting triple-digits. In his return in 2015, he was throwing in the upper-90s, occasionally hitting 100. He spent half of the season in Ft. Myers, and then was the closer through most of the second half of the season for the Lookouts.The former 2nd rounder, who was co-closer at Rice with Tyler Duffey, will also be given a real opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. Like Burdi, it’s more likely that he begins the season in the minor leagues, but he could be up in the season’s first couple of months.
• Mason Melotakis is another left-hander who may not be far off. He missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, but reports from Instructs after the season had him hitting 97 again. He was a college reliever who was given the opportunity to start. However, four starts into his 2014 season, he was moved back to the bullpen full time. While I think the Twins will (and should) be cautious with him early in the season, he could prove ready after the All Star break.
• Jake Reed struggled in his first full minor league season in 2015. The Twins had him start in AA, and he struggled. He went down to Ft. Myers (a level he had skipped) and did well and was quickly back with the Lookouts. He was tremendous in the Arizona Fall League as well. He will likely start the season in AA again, but is a guy who could be ready before the season is over. I would guess he will debut early in 2017, but certainly is feasible in 2016 as well.
• Yorman Landa is the sixth guy that Wolfson said that Radcliff mentioned. Again, he frequently hit 97-98 mph with his fastball. But he missed the first half of 2015 and a bunch of time in 2014 after shoulder surgery. He dominated at Cedar Rapids, but he has a ways to go. I would say the earliest he’d be ready would be by mid-2017.

When I mentioned this to Wolfson, he added this tweet, “Radcliff told me they have 13 arms that have a good chance to be here by, at latest, mid-2017. Didn’t realize it was that high.”

 

So, being me, I had to do a little research. Could I add seven names to the six mentioned above? Of course, when we hear that 13 arms could be ready by mid-2017, it’s important to remember that there are generally only seven or eight arms in a big league bullpen. So, while I have no problem with the statement, we also need to realize that opportunity also comes into play. In other words, we won’t likely see 13 arms before then. But who all could Radcliff be referring to?

 

I’m going to assume that guys like Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin and JR Graham are among the 13. Pressly was part of the Twins bullpen when his season came to an end in mid-summer. He was pitching well. Michael Tonkin has been up and down, literally, a dozen times in the last three years. He is now out of options, so he will have to stick or be potentially claimed by another team. JR Graham spent all of 2015 with the Twins after they used the Rule 5 pick on him. He had the biggest arm in the Twins bullpen last year, but was still learning to pitch in the bullpen. He’s likely to spend a lot of time in Rochester in 2016.

 

With those three added to the first six, that gives us nine. Let’s see if we can find another four or more. No problem.

• Alex Meyer - 2015 is over. 2016 is a new year. It’s a big year for Meyer, but the talent and potential are still there. He will come to spring training with an opportunity to make the team. If not, he could be a guy who comes up quick if he pitches more like he did in 2014 than 2015.
• Corey Williams - Williams missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and pitched well, getting back to AA. He hits 93 and 94, and could add a bit more in 2016. He’s also known as having a great slider. He is certainly one to watch.
• Logan Darnell - He struggled early in his transition to the bullpen, but he can be a lefty-reliever option, or at least a long-relief option.
• Pat Dean - Somewhat controversial when he was added to the 40 man roster, Dean had a terrific 2015 season in Rochester. Though he tops out at 90, he has a good slider and curveball and could be an option as a reliever.
• Luke Bard - Fought injuries and went through a few surgeries since being drafted, but Luke Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015. The Twins kept him in Cedar Rapids, but he could move quickly in 2016. He throws hard and has a strong three-pitch mix. He is definitely a sleeper for me in 2016.
• Jason Adam - He missed all of 2015 with elbow surgery, but the right-hander was a Top 10 prospect in the Royals system just a couple of years ago. If he can return to form, he is certainly one to monitor this year.
• Trevor Hildenberger - He was our choice as Twins minor league relief pitcher of the year in 2015. He began the season dominating in Cedar Rapids, and fared well in Ft. Myers upon his promotion. He also pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League. The side-winder throws harder than most sidearm throwers, but also has confidence in three pitches in any count.
• Brandon Peterson - The Minnesota native was our choice for Twins minor league reliever of the year in 2014. He pitched in Ft. Myers and Chattanooga in 2015. At one point, he went 25 innings without allowing a run.

There are eight names, so we’re already past 13 arms. Here are a few more:

• DJ Baxendale - He has been a starter most of his minor league career, but with a low-90s fastball and a good slider, he could be a solid bullpen option going forward.
• Michael Cederoth - Though the Twins had the hard-thrower starting in 2014 and 2015, he could move back to the bullpen. In college he pitched in relief and topped 100 on occasions. In the bullpen, he could move quickly.
• Alex Wimmers - The former first-round pick has been OK in the bullpen. He can become a minor league free agent following the 2016 season if he’s not on the 40 man roster, so I expect he’ll go to AAA and then we’ll see.
• Cole Johnson - like AJ Achter, Cole Johnson was drafted in a round that no longer exists, but he has moved up the system and got to AAA in 2015.
• Brett Lee - Another guy who has started through his career. He’s a low strikeout guy as a starter, but his stuff is good, so maybe in a bullpen role, he could thrive.
• Alex Muren - a ground ball machine, Muren spent some time in Chattanooga in 2015. He was said to be consistently in the mid-90s in 2015.

So, as you’re reading those names, you can judge for yourself the level of likelihood that each is going to be ready to contribute to the Twins by mid-2017. Some are probably 90% likely. Others may be closer to 10% But I think that Radcliff’s comment that there are 13 guys who could be ready by mid-2017 is more than fair.

 

And, I chose not to include JO Berrios, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe would all remain starters for the next two years.

 

And that brings us back to Bastardo and the Twins willingness to go one year on him or any other reliever. In my mind, it makes sense to offer him the one year. In fact, I’d be fine with offering him more for that one year just to stay away from a multi-year deal.

 

So, what do you think?

Be sure to follow Doogie Wolfson on Twitter and listen to his podcast, The Scoops, on the 1500 ESPN network.

 

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[theBOMisthebomb]

Sign the guy just for the cool name if nothing else. He does seem like an upgrade so why hesitate if he wants three years instead of one year. This franchise can afford it and really owes it to the fans to take calculated risks. We have a shot in 2016.

[Boom Boom]

I would still sign Bastardo. If some of these relievers on the farm graduate, then Bastardo won't block them.

 

I would also cite an idiom about not counting chickens before they hatch.

[old nurse]

Radcliff has 13 names.  Perkins,  May,  and Fien are the only one certain to be here longer than this year,   Jepson will be a free agent after this year.  There are those who think May should be in the rotation.   Injuries do happen.  That means you are counting on a 50% success rate from your minor league players.  You are counting on 2 of them being the back end of your bullpen, and 4 of them if you really are going to be a contender.   That is a lot of faith in your relievers in the minors.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd go 2 years, with a 3rd year option if he hits certain escalators. Yes, all of the minor league guys have potential, but Bastardo is someone you can count on and IS solid. If all of the guys in the minor leagues (or even 4 of them) in a year or more absolutely are out-performing Bastardo, you can trade him then. But all of these guys, none of them could absolutely work out. You never know. It would be nice to have certainty, and Bastardo would help with that.

That said, I am still holding out hope for a Jake Mcgee or a Will Smith trade. That is probably naïve.

[nicksaviking]

Walks don't bother me all that much, if a guy can miss bats, a walk should be way more palatable than a hit despite how the broadcasters may sell it.

 

But no way do I want Bastardo for three years, I don't want any reliever on a free agent contract for three years, I want to see the young hard throwers, and I want them now. I'm also not sorry for my impatience, I don't need a finished product, watching them improve is half the fun.

 

I'll take Ray Searge on a three year deal though.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

If the Twins actually have a one year and $3-4 million offer in front of Bastardo, it would be the same as trying not to be taken seriously. I realize that that type of offer would have been considered a competitive offer in prior years, but not so much now, Although, I really wouldn’t want the Twins to go in on a three-year $18 million deal….I’d sure like to have a lefty that is good at strikeouts! I’d go high for one maybe two years.

[B Good]

I'm glad someone finally wrote this.  Bastardo has been very good every other year, and he's been below league average the other years (if you go by ERA+).  Long term deals for relievers rarely work out.  Give the kids a chance. 

[Vanimal46]

My fear before any of these young arms are deemed to be ready, who are the Twins going to trust in the mean time? Other than Taylor Rogers, the closest ETA is in June/July... And I would imagine the ETA for Burdi, Chargois, and the likes is all dependent on their performance. If there's a lost season for one of them like Arcia just went through, there's not a lot of MLB-ready depth waiting in the wings... 

[Mike Sixel]

I would not go three years for him, if that's the price, then I say no. But.......other than Rogers, NONE of those guys starts next year here. Are they just going to settle for mediocre for 4-8+ weeks or so? How many games will that cost them?

 

If I had to, I'd go 2 years, but I'd prefer a more expensive 1 year deal. An offer of 1 year, $4MM per year is not an actual offer. It is a PR move "we tried". No way he takes that right now, no way.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's say the RP are mediocre, not bad, but mediocre ..... how dominant would one of the minor league guys have to be to be brought up? 

[Vanimal46]

 

If I had to, I'd go 2 years, but I'd prefer a more expensive 1 year deal. An offer of 1 year, $4MM per year is not an actual offer. It is a PR move "we tried". No way he takes that right now, no way.

Kinda reminds me of the Torii Hunter negotiations back in the day.. offering him 3 years $45 million, and the Angels offered 5 years, 90. They sure made it known that they tried to keep him with that whopper of an offer!  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Per Doogie Wolfson in his most recent episode of The Scoops on 1500 ESPN’s podcast network, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Bastardo situation. Wolfson said he has been told by those in the know that the Twins are interested in Bastardo at one year and $3-4 million.

"In other news, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Upton and Cespedes situations, and would be interested in either free agent on a one year deal."

[kab21]

I really don't the issue with signing Bastardo to a 3/18 contract.  He would be getting paid about the same as Jepsen and a little more than milone.  If you need to save money then trade Milone and move May to the rotation.  Bastardo might be better than May in the bullpen and May is likely better than Milone.

 

The years really don't both me.  The walks really don't bother me.  The prospect of Fien in the 7th/8th inning bothers me though.

Edited January 15, 2016 by kab21

[Willihammer]

Reason not to sign Bastardo? He can't get lefties out

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, as you’re reading those names, you can judge for yourself the level of likelihood that each is going to be ready to contribute to the Twins by mid-2017. Some are probably 90% likely. Others may be closer to 10% But I think that Radcliff’s comment that there are 13 guys who could be ready by mid-2017 is more than fair.

I doubt any of the guys you listed above this comment are 90% likely by themselves to be MLB contributors by mid-2017, much less multiple guys.  I think you are under-estimating the volatility of prospects, especially ones with iffy records so far like virtually all of the relievers in this group, or ones with zero experience in the role like Rogers.

 

Given the quantity of guys you named, it's probably 90% likely that at least one of the group contributes by mid-2017, but another important factor is how you define "contribute."  Fien, Pressly, Boyer, Abad, etc. have certainly "contributed" in MLB, but rarely at a high level and trusted in high leverage situations.  The Fien/Pressly/Boyer/Abad level is not really the bar that the Twins need these prospects to clear.  2015 clearly demonstrated a need above that, for another guy or two to dominate near the top of the pen, and by 2017 that need might be even greater if Jepsen departs, May is needed to start, and/or Perkins fades further.

 

Bastardo, or earlier in the offseason Mark Lowe, or any other FA reliever isn't guaranteed to perform at a certain level either, but each has some very recent high-level MLB work under their belt.  A 2-3 year commitment to one or two of those guys is a perfectly rational and affordable hedge against all that internal uncertainty.

Edited January 15, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

"In other news, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Upton and Cespedes situations, and would be interested in either free agent on a one year deal."

 

Yeah, but I heard we are considering up to $6M on a 1 year deal for Cespedes.

 

Saying we should not go after him because 3-18 is too much is a bit of a straw man because I don't think he gets a 3 year deal, or $6M a year.  I am guessing he either takes a 1 year $7-8M deal or 2-12. 

 

In other words, a potential difference maker in the pen for the equivalent of what we have paid Pelfrey the last three years.  Or twice what we have paid Duensing or will pay Fein.  None of which are difference makers.  

 

I see a pen where the coach trusts 2-3 people for the first three months of the year and then they get hurt or inneffective the rest of the year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But no way do I want Bastardo for three years, I don't want any reliever on a free agent contract for three years, I want to see the young hard throwers, and I want them now. I'm also not sorry for my impatience, I don't need a finished product, watching them improve is half the fun.

I might agree with you if we actually saw the young pitchers last year.  Rogers (or Berrios) and Meyer clearly showed with their 2015 performance that they deserved a chance to help bolster the pen late in the year.  Why should we trust the 2016 team to aggressively promote guys who haven't even reached that level of accomplishment yet?

Edited January 15, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

Why should we trust the 2016 team to aggressively promote guys who haven't even reached that level of accomplishment yet?

 

I could see this argument in 2012 or 2013.  Give the young guys a run way in a year in which we had no shot at the AL central.  Right now I think we do have a shot so why not make a meager short term investment in an area of need?  We still have 2-3 spots there for the taking for young guys. 

[TRex]

I think one major omission on your list is Tyler Duffey. I don't think he has anything left to prove in AAA, and the rotatio already seems full. I know people would contend, as they do with May, that he is more valuable in the rotation. However, he has the pitches and previous experience to be a dominant force out of the BP. He was even effective against LHB.

 

I think Nolesco (SP)/Duffey (RP) >>> Duffey (SP)/Nolesco (RP).

[gunnarthor]

The Twins have a pretty good closer/set-up tandem already with Perkins, May and Jepsen.  I think Burdi will pitch himself into that mix.  Fien and Pressly can be solid guys.  So really what they are looking for is a LH reliever and maybe a long man.  The long man will probably be Nolasco.  So, while another lefty would be nice, I think the Twins internal options are fine.  I'd also be happy if we signed Clippard but I'm not going to freak out about not adding Bastardo.

[tobi0040]

 

I think one major omission on your list is Tyler Duffey. I don't think he has anything left to prove in AAA, and the rotatio already seems full. I know people would contend, as they do with May, that he is more valuable in the rotation. However, he has the pitches and previous experience to be a dominant force out of the BP. He was even effective against LHB.

 

I think Nolesco (SP)/Duffey (RP) >>> Duffey (SP)/Nolesco (RP).

 

Nolasco not on the team >>>>> Anything else

[HitInAPinch]

Nobody's biting on Bastardo. 1 year @ 3-4 mil offer plus mutual option.  I'm not 100% confident in bringing up multiple MiLB relievers without a backup plan.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm ok if the plan is to use the minor league players......but then have the courage to do it, and to stick with them. They didn't have that courage last year with Rogers, or Meyer. There was zero reason for Rogers not to be up last year, as a RP, imo.

 

Will they have the courage to stick with these guys, if they blow a game or two (like any MLB RP does)? If so, then just start with them......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins have a pretty good closer/set-up tandem already with Perkins, May and Jepsen.  I think Burdi will pitch himself into that mix.  Fien and Pressly can be solid guys.  So really what they are looking for is a LH reliever and maybe a long man.  The long man will probably be Nolasco.  So, while another lefty would be nice, I think the Twins internal options are fine.  I'd also be happy if we signed Clippard but I'm not going to freak out about not adding Bastardo.

Of course, Jepsen is FA after 2016, Perkins is coming off an injury and pretty disastrous finishes the past two seasons, and it's not clear quite yet that May shouldn't be starting.  We could use help there right now, and will probably need additional help there in 2017.  No need to wait for Burdi to pitch himself into that mix (which might be mid-2016 before he could arrive, and maybe 2017 before he's actually comfortable and trusted in a key role).

 

Plenty of room to sign a FA now, and still accommodate any prospects emerging.

[gunnarthor]

 

Of course, Jepsen is FA after 2016, Perkins is coming off an injury and pretty disastrous finishes the past two seasons, and it's not clear quite yet that May shouldn't be starting.  We could use help there right now, and will probably need additional help there in 2017.  No need to wait for Burdi to pitch himself into that mix (which might be mid-2016 before he could arrive, and maybe 2017 before he's actually comfortable and trusted in a key role).

 

Plenty of room to sign a FA now, and still accommodate any prospects emerging.

Sure, there are questions but on Perkins/Jepsen/May issues that you bring up, Bastardo isn't the answer.  As I mentioned, I'd be happy if the Twins signed Clippard but I probably have more faith that one or two of our relief pitchers in the minors will pan out to be late inning guys. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Saying we should not go after him because 3-18 is too much is a bit of a straw man because I don't think he gets a 3 year deal, or $6M a year.  I am guessing he either takes a 1 year $7-8M deal or 2-12. 

Not to mention, Bastardo wasn't the only option.  Tony Sipp, Shawn Kelley, etc.  Our division rival signed Mark Lowe for 2/11, got K-Rod in a salary dump for 2/13.5, and traded for Justin Wilson (from the Yankees just after we made our own deal with the Yankees).  The Mariners got Benoit as a 1/8 salary dump.  Trevor Cahill (11.6 K/9 with the Cubs late last year, 8 K's in 5.1 IP in the playoffs) signed for 1/4.

 

No evidence the Twins pursued any of these options, many of which would have only required a one or maybe two year commitment.

 

The Twins aren't simply choosing between internal options and Bastardo, or rationally avoiding 3 year deals, or exceptionally confident in their sleeper relief prospects.  They are primarily overrating their current group of MLB relievers and guys like Abad, and under-rating how poor and untrustworthy much of their 2015 bullpen actually was.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, there are questions but on Perkins/Jepsen/May issues that you bring up, Bastardo isn't the answer.  As I mentioned, I'd be happy if the Twins signed Clippard but I probably have more faith that one or two of our relief pitchers in the minors will pan out to be late inning guys. 

See my post above -- Bastardo is only the primary option now (with Clippard, I guess) because the Twins have already passed on many other better and perhaps cheaper options.

 

If the Twins had a case against signing Bastardo, but understood they needed immediate help in the pen, they should have acquired someone else long ago.  They simply don't believe they need immediate help in the pen.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think one major omission on your list is Tyler Duffey. I don't think he has anything left to prove in AAA, and the rotatio already seems full. I know people would contend, as they do with May, that he is more valuable in the rotation. However, he has the pitches and previous experience to be a dominant force out of the BP. He was even effective against LHB.

 

I think Nolesco (SP)/Duffey (RP) >>> Duffey (SP)/Nolesco (RP).

 

I didn't forget Duffey... I just think that it would be silly - though not completely impossible - for him not to be in the starting rotation to start the season. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm ok if the plan is to use the minor league players......but then have the courage to do it, and to stick with them. They didn't have that courage last year with Rogers, or Meyer. There was zero reason for Rogers not to be up last year, as a RP, imo.

 

Will they have the courage to stick with these guys, if they blow a game or two (like any MLB RP does)? If so, then just start with them......

 

Wait... Mike and I agree... I want the Twins to sometimes trust and stick with the young guys. 

 

Rogers is the one that I think is ready right from the beginning. I do think Tonkin should be trusted for a full 2 month stretch to see if he can become what they hope (we hope) or not. I think Fien and Pressly are worth sticking with. Fien to see if he can return to 2013 and first four months of 2014 form. Pressly, again, because he has shown at times that he can be good with an opportunity. He was just about there last year when he got hurt.