Fangraphs Projected Standings

[h2oface]

My projection is.......... that at the end of the season and when the final records are in, Fangraphs will look stupid, and not one of the projections will be within 5 games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My projection is.......... that at the end of the season and when the final records are in, Fangraphs will look stupid, and not one of the projections will be within 5 games.

That's virtually impossible, as the win range is 78-85 games. At least one, probably two, of the teams are going to finish at or near .500.

 

If you project every team to be close to .500, you'll be "nearly right" about half the time.

[TheLeviathan]

If people don't think 78 wins is a possibility for this team you may need to come back from the ledge a bit for your own sake.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If people don't think 78 wins is a possibility for this team you may need to come back from the ledge a bit for your own sake.

Really, I'm fine with anything between 76-88 wins for a prediction.

 

I have no idea what to expect from this team. It could implode right off the bat as players regress and/or don't develop or everything could click together as Buxton, Arcia, and Park dominate while Meyer and Burdi turn the pen into a beast and Berrios makes a run at RotY.

 

*shrugs*

[Craig Arko]

Twins win the AL Central; host a wildcard game and lose 10-9 to the Mariners as Joe Mauer's potential game winning 3-run homer dies on the left field warning track.

[jimmer]

Projections are based on what the players are projected to do.  The guy who created ZiPS even said projections aren't predictions because projections can't predict sequencing and they know some players under-perform and over-perform their projections.

[James Richter]

 

Some things I disagree with in the details:

 

Murhphy will get more ABs than Suzuki.....might add a couple runs.

Park will get some ABs, right now he's not in the projection system. Not sure that changes projections at all.

Escobar will get way more ABs at SS than projected, worth a half win I'd guess.

I don't think Meyer will get a start (or others), but not sure the SP projections change a lot, I'd say there is a half win to win upside there, if the innings are different.

I think Meyer gets more RP innings, and others, and there is a half win upside there.

 

So, maybe 81 wins if the projections stay the same rate wise, but the rates change....

I noticed these too, and also their belief that Dozier, Plouffe and Buxton will have negative value on defense. With a more realistic depth chart and those 3 putting up even average defense I think 78 wins is more of a floor for this team than a likely outcome.

[shs_59]

 

 I don't see the Tigers doing that well, I think they are close to being bad, really, really bad.

 

I agree the Twins likely take a step back until the young starters and relievers are relied on full time and get plenty of innings under their belt.

Maybe 2 years from now Nick

 

But in 2016?

 

NOT A CHANCE are the Detroit Tigers CLOSE to as Bad as you put it.

 

all off-season moves:

 

Justin Wilson STUD lefty Reliever

Shawn Kelly STUD righty Reliever

Jordan Zimmerman STUD righty Starter

Daniel Norris   STUD lefty starter Prospect  > than Berrios for 3 of the last 4 yrs in rankings

(acquired Norris for David Price at deadline)

Al Alvila gone Saltamachia in They've brought in at least 1 other catcher

 

Francisco Rodriguez  NEW CLOSER

 

They Still have KINSLER, MIGGY CABRERA and 2 Martinez's + Castellanos

 

Simply Put IF Justin Verlander regains his 2012-2013 form 

 

they will easily win 78 -80 games, if not maybe push for the division

 

 

***The Royals, Indians and Tigers should all easily win 80+ games this year

 

Makes the Twins have to be spetacular right away early and often and dominate teams like the White Sox all year long......easier said than done

[TheLeviathan]

 

Really, I'm fine with anything between 76-88 wins for a prediction.

 

I have no idea what to expect from this team. It could implode right off the bat as players regress and/or don't develop or everything could click together as Buxton, Arcia, and Park dominate while Meyer and Burdi turn the pen into a beast and Berrios makes a run at RotY.

 

*shrugs*

 

When young players take the next step or go through a season of growing pains is really hard to predict.  I'm in a similar boat, anything give or take 75-85 is perfectly reasonable to me.  Either side of that you get a bit more fringy to me.

[h2oface]

 

Projections are based on what the players are projected to do.  The guy who created ZiPS even said projections aren't predictions because projections can't predict sequencing and they know some players under-perform and over-perform their projections.

 

Projections - predictions. They can call it what they want if it makes them feel better. If I project what a player will do, I will be using projections to make a prediction, projecting my prediction, and making a project of it.

 

"projections aren't predictions because projections can't predict sequencing and they know some players under-perform and over-perform their projections."

 

Predictions aren't projections because predictions can't project sequencing and they know some players under-perform and over-perform their predictions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe 2 years from now Nick

 

But in 2016?

 

NOT A CHANCE are the Detroit Tigers CLOSE to as Bad as you put it.

 

all off-season moves:

 

Justin Wilson STUD lefty Reliever

Shawn Kelly STUD righty Reliever

Jordan Zimmerman STUD righty Starter

Daniel Norris STUD lefty starter Prospect > than Berrios for 3 of the last 4 yrs in rankings

(acquired Norris for David Price at deadline)

Al Alvila gone Saltamachia in They've brought in at least 1 other catcher

 

Francisco Rodriguez NEW CLOSER

 

They Still have KINSLER, MIGGY CABRERA and 2 Martinez's + Castellanos

 

Simply Put IF Justin Verlander regains his 2012-2013 form

 

they will easily win 78 -80 games, if not maybe push for the division

 

 

***The Royals, Indians and Tigers should all easily win 80+ games this year

 

Makes the Twins have to be spetacular right away early and often and dominate teams like the White Sox all year long......easier said than done

2014 Tigers: 90 wins

2015 Tigers: 74 wins

 

You're underestimating how quickly and violently the aging curve can hit a team. Not to pat myself on the back but at this time last year I said "the Tigers were good in 2014 but if there's a team in the ALC poised to collapse, it's them".

 

The Tigers might rebound and be a decent team in 2016 but I'm not going to hold my breath in hopes a team with a *bunch* of players well into their 30s are going to magically rebound at the same time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

2014 Tigers: 90 wins

2015 Tigers: 74 wins

 

You're underestimating how quickly and violently the aging curve can hit a team. Not to pat myself on the back but at this time last year I said "the Tigers were good in 2014 but if there's a team in the ALC poised to collapse, it's them".

 

The Tigers might rebound and be a decent team in 2016 but I'm not going to hold my breath in hopes a team with a *bunch* of players well into their 30s are going to magically rebound at the same time.

I think you are overestimating how many of their old guys need to magically rebound in 2016. Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez are basically it. Even Verlander settled into a pretty decent groove last year, well below his peak but still very good.

 

Not saying they will take the division again, but with the additions they made, I am pretty comfortable saying their 2015 record is probably their floor for 2016.

[old nurse]

 

Out of curiosity, what were their projections for last year?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-team-projections-and-you-american-league/

 

It does link to the nl

[tobi0040]

 

I think you are overestimating how many of their old guys need to magically rebound in 2016. Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez are basically it. Even Verlander settled into a pretty decent groove last year, well below his peak but still very good.

Not saying they will take the division again, but with the additions they made, I am pretty comfortable saying their 2015 record is probably their floor for 2016.

 

2015 is probably about their floor.  They were really bad.   But I don't think they will be materially better either. 

 

I am not convinced that the additions they made (Zimmerman, K-Rod, and Wilson) make up for the losses in Price, Cespedes, and Soria.  Price accumulated a WAR of 3.5 with Detroit (2.4 with TOR as well). That 3.5 matched the WAR that Zimmerman put up, as well as about his career average up to this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think you are overestimating how many of their old guys need to magically rebound in 2016. Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez are basically it. Even Verlander settled into a pretty decent groove last year, well below his peak but still very good.

 

Not saying they will take the division again, but with the additions they made, I am pretty comfortable saying their 2015 record is probably their floor for 2016.

They don't only need players to rebound, they need guys going into their mid-30s (Kinsler, Cabrera) to not regress. They also won't get partial seasons from good players such as Price and Cespedes in 2016.

 

It's possible the Tigers are respectable this season. It's also possible, maybe likely, they continue to nose dive. It's hard to keep winning when the bulk of your best players are well into their 30s.

[tobi0040]

 

They don't only need players to rebound, they need guys going into their mid-30s (Kinsler, Cabrera) to not regress. They also won't get partial seasons from good players such as Price and Cespedes in 2016.

It's possible the Tigers are respectable this season. It's also possible, maybe likely, they continue to nose dive. It's hard to keep winning when the bulk of your best players are well into their 30s.

 

Yup.  They won't get materailly better seasons from Cabrera (.974 OPS), Martinez (38 HR), and probably Verlander's 3.38 ERA.  Those guys have downside risk, probably not much from Cabrera because he is a top 5-10 hitter of all time.   Also Cespedes had a WAR of 4 and I don't see who is filling that void.

[markos]

 

They don't only need players to rebound, they need guys going into their mid-30s (Kinsler, Cabrera) to not regress. They also won't get partial seasons from good players such as Price and Cespedes in 2016.

It's possible the Tigers are respectable this season. It's also possible, maybe likely, they continue to nose dive. It's hard to keep winning when the bulk of your best players are well into their 30s.

I don't think it is completely unreasonable to expect the Tigers to be better record-wise and expect their mid-30s stars get worse. The Tigers had a really weird season last year. Offensively, they were the Anti-Twins. They hit really well (1st in hits, 2nd in OPS+, 3rd in OPS), but struggled to actually score runs (only 10th in the AL). In fact, the Twins outscored the Tigers for the season despite having 185 fewer baserunners. All that despite losing Miguel Cabrera for 40 games, trading away Cespedes, and getting absolutely nothing from Victor Martinez. They could hit worse overall as a team next season and still score more runs.

 

Their biggest problem was their pitching, particularly the back end of the rotation and bullpen. Their worst 10 pitchers from last year (by bWAR) pitched 577 innings with a -9.2 bWAR. Zimmermann certainly doesn't replace Price - he might be 50% of Price. But the bigger question is whether or not they can find replacement level or better pitchers to replace the dumpster fire they had to deal with last year. If they can find just below-average pitchers for those innings - either through some positive regression or the arms they added - they could have a huge improvement over last year despite losing a guy like Price.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They don't only need players to rebound, they need guys going into their mid-30s (Kinsler, Cabrera) to not regress. They also won't get partial seasons from good players such as Price and Cespedes in 2016.

It's possible the Tigers are respectable this season. It's also possible, maybe likely, they continue to nose dive. It's hard to keep winning when the bulk of your best players are well into their 30s.

Cabrera missed time last year, so he could regress performance-wise and still provide just as much value.

 

Also, Cabrera, Kinsler, and Victor Martinez are all of their 30+ year olds on offense.  JD Martinez would be the next oldest at 28, then they have 26, 25, 24, etc.  On the pitching side, Verlander will be 33 and Sanchez 32, but Zimmermann will only be 30 and they have some younger starters too like Norris.  They're not THAT old.  According to B-Ref, their 2015 offense average age was equal to the Twins, and their pitcher average age was actually younger than the Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah skeptical of this projection. I could see the Twins at 78.  I think as it's constructed today, 83 wins of last year is pretty likely and that 78 is a tad low... just don't like all the question marks...  too many.  By the end of the season, I think we will be pretty excited about 2017 though...

 

But Detroit, KC, and CHI are all ???? in my opinion. I'd take a bunch of wins from Det and Chi and give them to KC...  Cleveland is probably the most realistic, but I could see them being a bit closer to 81 than 85. 

[tobi0040]

 

Cabrera missed time last year, so he could regress performance-wise and still provide just as much value.

 

Also, Cabrera, Kinsler, and Victor Martinez are all of their 30+ year olds on offense.  JD Martinez would be the next oldest at 28, then they have 26, 25, 24, etc.  On the pitching side, Verlander will be 33 and Sanchez 32, but Zimmermann will only be 30 and they have some younger starters too like Norris.  They're not THAT old.  According to B-Ref, their 2015 offense average age was equal to the Twins, and their pitcher average age was actually younger than the Twins.

 

Regarding age, I am guessing Hunter skewed that quite a bit.  Now you add Buxton, Ryan for some of Suzuki's reps, annualize Sano and Rosario, and potentially add Kepler. 

[nicksaviking]

The Tigers revamped rotation is starting to look like the Twins. Sanchez is the only one with plus strikeout ability and it's nowhere close to what it was at it's peak. Now they're bringing in Zimmerman and Norris, two more high contact arms. This rotation shouldn't scare anyone and it's quite possible by the end of the year it will be the worst in the AL Central.

 

As for the offense, well stay away from Martinez and Cabrera, that's about it.

 

**I say this knowing there's a fairly decent chance that this team signs Upton or Cespedes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Regarding age, I am guessing Hunter skewed that quite a bit.  Now you add Buxton, Ryan for some of Suzuki's reps, annualize Sano and Rosario, and potentially add Kepler. 

Sure, Hunter skewed it a bit.  But no matter how you slice it, they are relatively close.  Some folks here are painting the Tigers like they are the Yankees in terms of age (who have normally averaged 31-32 on offense).  The Tigers are actually pretty much league average, they only have a handful of over 30 guys, and they don't have any super-old guys other than Victor Martinez who will be 37.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Tigers revamped rotation is starting to look like the Twins. Sanchez is the only one with plus strikeout ability and it's nowhere close to what it was at it's peak. Now they're bringing in Zimmerman and Norris, two more high contact arms. This rotation shouldn't scare anyone and it's quite possible by the end of the year it will be the worst in the AL Central.

 

As for the offense, well stay away from Martinez and Cabrera, that's about it.

 

**I say this knowing there's a fairly decent chance that this team signs Upton or Cespedes.

Sanchez was 7.9 K/9 last year and for his career, and only had 1 or 2 seasons where he notably beat that. Reduced K's wasn't his problem in 2015.  Also, Verlander was 7.6 K/9 last year and 8.3 K/9 for his career, not clear there's any real difference between him and Sanchez in present day strikeout ability.

 

Zimmermann has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but he's consistently been around 120 ERA+. If 2015 was a sign of Verlander adapting to diminished stuff, he might settle into the same.

 

Mike Pelfrey is obviously a head-scratcher.  I guess he's their Alfredo Simon replacement?  Definitely wouldn't have been my first choice to fill out the starting staff...

 

On offense, they added Cameron Maybin, I'd be surprised if they were even trying to land Cespedes or Upton at this point.

[DaveW]

If the projections were fool proof, then they would never be released to the public anyways. A select few would be taking Vegas.