Fangraphs Projected Standings

[Vanimal46]

A little early yet, but Fangraphs updated their projected standings for the 2016 season. I'll save you all a click and post the projected AL Central Standings... 

Indians         85-77
White Sox    81-81
Tigers          79-83
Royals         79-83
Twins           78-84

Pretty surprised that they have projected the Royals to fall off the map. The Indians have been the hot pick to be a playoff team the last 2-3 years... I'll believe it when I see it. And going into this season, I believe that the Twins are about to take a step backwards in the division before they take a step forward.

Your thoughts? 

[nicksaviking]

 I don't see the Tigers doing that well, I think they are close to being bad, really, really bad.

 

I agree the Twins likely take a step back until the young starters and relievers are relied on full time and get plenty of innings under their belt.

 

 

[Halsey Hall]

With that projection, the division once again goes down to the last week. Not surprising, but I see the fight to be between the Indians, Royals and Pale hose, with the Twins finishing with stated record.  Wins in the division are going to be extra credit this season.

[Mike Sixel]

That run differential looks realistic to me......unfortunately.

[Mike Sixel]

Some things I disagree with in the details:

 

Murhphy will get more ABs than Suzuki.....might add a couple runs.

Park will get some ABs, right now he's not in the projection system. Not sure that changes projections at all.

Escobar will get way more ABs at SS than projected, worth a half win I'd guess.

I don't think Meyer will get a start (or others), but not sure the SP projections change a lot, I'd say there is a half win to win upside there, if the innings are different.

I think Meyer gets more RP innings, and others, and there is a half win upside there.

 

So, maybe 81 wins if the projections stay the same rate wise, but the rates change....

 

[gunnarthor]

Projected standings are usually not that reliable so I wouldn't overly worry about it, esp the final records.  I'd probably be more concerned about the projected order of finish but even then, meh.  It's too early.

 

I think the Twins will win around 85ish games this year and make the playoffs but we'll see.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

All I know is that one team will win more than 85 games and one team will win less than 78 games.

 

I also struggle to believe the Indians and Sox will top the division. I just don't see it, particularly the White Sox.

[PseudoSABR]

Regression to the mean is always the safest projection.  So there's really nothing surprising here. 

 

A few things of note:(looking at the fan graphs depth chart)

Park isn't included in the projections.  Arcia is getting those DH at bats, and Vargas the 1b at bats.

They have Rosario marked down for a total of 1 WAR

Plouffe's fielding WAR is -4.5 (Def War in his profile is -3.1, though)

Buxton's fielding WAR is -1.6 (Def War in his profile is 1, though)

The only positive fielders are Mauer and Rosario.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Right, projections are not predictions.....

[James]

If I remember correctly, these are very similar to the projections they had for 2015 as well.  I seem to remember a lot of people predicting the collapse of the Royals last night and the Tigers and Indians taking over.  I'll have to do some digging to find 2015 predictions, but these usually don't bother me too much.  There is too much that can happen between now and the season to make take these too seriously.

[tobi0040]

Here was the prior year run differential:

 

KC – plus 83 runs
Cleveland – plus 29 runs
Twins - minus 4
CWS – minus 79
DET – minus 114

 

Every team has a mix of regression and bounce back guys.  I would argue annualizing Sano and Rosario, and the potential upside from Berrios, Kepler, and a ton of young relievers puts us at the top of the division in terms of a boost from young talent.  So I think the Twins are an above .500 team.

[Seth Stohs]

 

All I know is that one team will win more than 85 games and one team will win less than 78 games.

 

I also struggle to believe the Indians and Sox will top the division. I just don't see it, particularly the White Sox.

 

Agreed, and on January 12th, there is no way to know which one will be which. 

[dbminn]

The good team/bad team split between the two leagues is remarkable. The six teams projected to have the fewest wins are all in the NL.

 

The AL Central will be a dogfight, with the Twins finishing either 3rd or 4th. I still can't project the Sox above the Twins and the Tigers have too many key players with injury risk. That being said, all five teams are flawed and all have potential. Should be an interesting year.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

The good team/bad team split between the two leagues is remarkable. The six teams projected to have the fewest wins are all in the NL.

 

The AL Central will be a dogfight, with the Twins finishing either 3rd or 4th. I still can't project the Sox above the Twins and the Tigers have too many key players with injury risk. That being said, all five teams are flawed and all have potential. Should be an interesting year.

I mean it makes sense though. Atlanta, Philly, and Cincinnati have been selling off every valuable trade chip they have, and we've been discussing that the Brewers are going to be a bad baseball team too.

I do agree that there's a lot of balance in the AL on paper. And depending on injuries, there appears to be at least 3 contenders in each division that you could make a case for. 

But if we are looking for the real analysis of how the standings will shape up, we need to hear from the 2015 over/under contest winner, Willihammer.  

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Does anyone know that the second half division records were? I am not sure how to find that, but would be interesting to see where we were in that mix.

[Boom Boom]

I'm surprised they have KC in 4th place after two straight world series appearances.

 

The rest is pretty close to my estimates. Cleveland is always a fashionable pick this time of year for some reason.

[Squirrel]

 

A little early yet, but Fangraphs updated their projected standings for the 2016 season. I'll save you all a click and post the projected AL Central Standings... 

Indians         85-77
White Sox    81-81
Tigers          79-83
Royals         79-83
Twins           78-84

Pretty surprised that they have projected the Royals to fall off the map. The Indians have been the hot pick to be a playoff team the last 2-3 years... I'll believe it when I see it. And going into this season, I believe that the Twins are about to take a step backwards in the division before they take a step forward.

Your thoughts? 

Out of curiosity, what were their projections for last year?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Does anyone know that the second half division records were? I am not sure how to find that, but would be interesting to see where we were in that mix.

So far I have only found Baseball Reference letting me sort out records by the last 30 days of the season, in which ONLY Cleveland had a winning record in the division, and had a 3 game lead over 2nd place KC. So, the Cleveland love is not without merit. Most people knew they were underperforming and had some bad luck the first half, but they turned it on in the second half. I think they win the division if they stay healthy. They now have better defense. 

 

***Edit, I think Cleveland should be the FAVORITES to win the division, but would not be surprised if ANY team in our division wins it. 

 

Still, someone please help me if you know how to find second half records.

[markos]

 

Does anyone know that the second half division records were? I am not sure how to find that, but would be interesting to see where we were in that mix.

KC  43 33
Cle 39 34
Min 34 39
Chi 35 41
Det 30 43

[Vanimal46]

Out of curiosity, what were their projections for last year?

Not sure. Even on older articles when I click on projected standings it takes me to the same page that I linked in the OP. Hopefully someone else who knows how to navigate Fangraphs better than me can find out.

[nicksaviking]

 

Some things I disagree with in the details:

 

Murhphy will get more ABs than Suzuki.....might add a couple runs.

Park will get some ABs, right now he's not in the projection system. Not sure that changes projections at all.

Escobar will get way more ABs at SS than projected, worth a half win I'd guess.

I don't think Meyer will get a start (or others), but not sure the SP projections change a lot, I'd say there is a half win to win upside there, if the innings are different.

I think Meyer gets more RP innings, and others, and there is a half win upside there.

 

So, maybe 81 wins if the projections stay the same rate wise, but the rates change....

 

Agree with all of these points, particularly the omission of Park and the ABs for Escobar.

 

And Logan Darnell is the #1 non-Perkins lefty in the pen? That doesn't seem likely at all, and as much as I criticize, I don't buy that they are only going to give 55 IP combined to the high ceiling minor league relievers, and Burdi isn't even listed (Meyer, Chargois and Melotakis are listed). There's a half dozen of those guys, a few are going to have to become regular contributors.

 

Good to see Pinto back though. Thought we lost him there for a minute.

[old nurse]

The fangraphs team projections for 2015 and what happened were far different than what happened. The 81-81 prediction for the Royals and 76-86 for the Astros show how far off they can be

[Mike Sixel]

 

The fangraphs team projections for 2015 and what happened were far different than what happened. The 81-81 prediction for the Royals and 76-86 for the Astros show how far off they can be

 

Last year was "historically bad" for their systems, or something like that was stated recently there. Projections are mostly entertainment at this point in the year, nothing more or less. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

KC  43 33
Cle 39 34
Min 34 39
Chi 35 41
Det 30 43

So, this second half record kinda shows that we were not even a good team in the second half, that Cleveland was above average, and Detroit was terrible. 

 

I think any one of these teams could end up on top, and anyone of them could end up on the bottom, without being all that surprised by any of it. I just think Cleveland seems to have the best roster structure to not end up on bottom at least. It will be fun to watch.

[nicksaviking]

 

Last year was "historically bad" for their systems, or something like that was stated recently there. Projections are mostly entertainment at this point in the year, nothing more or less. 

 

Especially considering 4+ WAR hitters like Cespedes, Upton and Davis have yet to sign. Delmon Young too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Out of curiosity, what were their projections for last year?

 

Not sure. Even on older articles when I click on projected standings it takes me to the same page that I linked in the OP. Hopefully someone else who knows how to navigate Fangraphs better than me can find out.

 

Their playoff odds pages still seem to have the 2015 data, get it while you can!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=pre

 

Here's their preseason 2015 AL Central projection:

 

Team W L

Indians 85.6 76.4
Tigers 85.1 76.9
Royals 78.7 83.3
White Sox 77.8 84.2
Twins 73.9 88.1

 

Here is another link that is more or less the same as the above, but includes the first day of the season in the URL, which might make the link more permanent?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=2015-04-05

 

You can still see 2014 that way too:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=2014-04-05

[Squirrel]

 

Their playoff odds pages still seem to have the 2015 data, get it while you can!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=pre

 

Here's their preseason 2015 AL Central projection:

 

Team W L

Indians 85.6 76.4
Tigers 85.1 76.9
Royals 78.7 83.3
White Sox 77.8 84.2
Twins 73.9 88.1

 

Here is another link that is more or less the same as the above, but includes the first day of the season in the URL, which might make the link more permanent?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=2015-04-05

 

You can still see 2014 that way too:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=2014-04-05

Well, just goes to show that it's not always easy to see the future no matter what the data might be telling you!

[markos]

 

Well, just goes to show that it's not always easy to see the future no matter what the data might be telling you!

Here is a good (but long) explanation on what these projections are saying:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/projecting-uncertainty-a-roadmap-to-the-projected-standings/

 

Some key points:

1) Last year, they projected the Tigers to win 85 games. But based on their model that just means they thought there was a 6% chance that they would win EXACTLY 85 games - it was the most likely option, but the error range is pretty large. 

2) The above Tigers projection was the top one in the Central, but at the same time they projected that the winner of the Central would win 90 games. 

 

Personally, I like to use these projections as an indication of the level of talent on the teams. And it seems to me that the talent level in the Central is pretty uniform.

 

[Kwak]

I think the Tigers become the Twins--fall to the bottom from 1st place, then linger there while they unwind high-cost players and replace them with cheaper and better.  There are three things that could make Detroit's retooling proceed faster than the Twins' retooling:  Verlander, and Cabrera could be traded for multiple youthful prospects and Detroit is more willing to spend to acquire talent than the Minnesota.  

 

Betting against KC seems foolhardy in 2016, but 2017 will be a much different sceanario.  I can see the Royals spending to repeat before they inevitably break apart.

 

Chicago, Cleveland and the Twins will slosh around in the middle and likely have very similar records at the end.  Wild card teams will have W/L records similar to last season's NL--90+, not the mid 80's of the AL in 2015--so, only one team from the ALCD in 2016.

[mikecgrimes]

 

A little early yet, but Fangraphs updated their projected standings for the 2016 season. I'll save you all a click and post the projected AL Central Standings... 

Indians         85-77
White Sox    81-81
Tigers          79-83
Royals         79-83
Twins           78-84

Pretty surprised that they have projected the Royals to fall off the map. The Indians have been the hot pick to be a playoff team the last 2-3 years... I'll believe it when I see it. And going into this season, I believe that the Twins are about to take a step backwards in the division before they take a step forward.

Your thoughts? 

 

My thoughts based on that is that is I sure wish the Twins cared about having an ace, because that ace could be well rested for the start of the playoffs.  despite calling last season almost on the # and always being an optimist at this time of the year that # is right about what I am thinking.  It shouldn't be, this team should find a way to win 85 games by accident but I just have no clue what their trying to build, we only have two big weaknesses, top of the rotation pitching and a solidified bullpen, the bullpen might be fine but why not pay the price you have to pay to make sure it's fine as that player would get a chance to perform in about 60 of our closest games.