Baseball America's Top 10 Twins Prospects

[BoomBoom]

I get this is based on projection, but how does the only player in the Twins system to be voted an organizational All Star in each of the last 3 years, not make the Top 10.  He is also the only player to be voted a mid season and post season All Star by league managers in each of the last 3 seasons.  He has played more games than any player in the system over the last 3 years (durable).  He has won 4 championships in 4 years.  Has been voted or talked about in league MVP voting in each of the last 3 years.  Among the league leaders in runs scored every year despite the low contact rate.  

 

And bats 7th.   But only the strike outs are projected as sustainable?  

 

At least Fangraph still has him producing runs in their projections.

[shs_59]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 2:28 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How nervous should I be that Park, who has faced AA quality players maybe, is only 7th, but is slated to be the DH?

 

Is the Burdi ranking based on value of RP, or is he that far from MLB?

Interesting i wouldn't have Park in the top 8 .... 9th at best and probably 11 or 12....

 

I just don't see the difference between Park and say Adam Brett Walker other than Walker K's a bit more and plays the OF where as park is a DH/1B.....they both lack some arm strenght and Walker is much younger.....

 

so i don't see how you can rank Park so significantly ahead of A.B. Walker, who i have around  10th or 11th overall (that may be optimistic.)

 

Beradino, himself said in the Chat the BA guys "made him" bump park up to 7th....so Beradino wanted him closer to or around 10. anyways..... i agree with that logic  Jung Ho-Kang > than Byung Ho- Park.m

 

maybe not by alot but theres not question whoes the better value/ player for me.

[USAFChief]

  On 1/14/2016 at 8:22 PM, Seth Stohs said:

No way to know. We'll find out.

 

I thought there was "a lot of confidence" they"ll all be ready by May 1st.

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 12:58 PM, USAFChief said:

I thought there was "a lot of confidence" they"ll all be ready by May 1st.

 

There is, but they are people, so you never know what will happen.

[nicksaviking]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 4:56 AM, BoomBoom said:

I get this is based on projection, but how does the only player in the Twins system to be voted an organizational All Star in each of the last 3 years, not make the Top 10.  He is also the only player to be voted a mid season and post season All Star by league managers in each of the last 3 seasons.  He has played more games than any player in the system over the last 3 years (durable).  He has won 4 championships in 4 years.  Has been voted or talked about in league MVP voting in each of the last 3 years.  Among the league leaders in runs scored every year despite the low contact rate.  

 

And bats 7th.   But only the strike outs are projected as sustainable?  

 

At least Fangraph still has him producing runs in their projections.

 

Because if he struggles making contact AND he can't lay off pitches, he'll never see a hittable pitch at the MLB level. Minor league pitchers will throw hittable pitches because A ) they're trying to prove they can throw strikes B ) they want to prove they can get power hitters out and C ) they're not as good as MLB pitchers at hitting their spots.

 

If he's not seeing hittable pitches, his positive stats obviously aren't going to be there.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'd love it if even 2 of those relievers were up by May 1st, but it doesn't seem realistic for even 2 of them, let alone all 4 of them. Who do they replace? I'd vote in order: Nolasco, Abad, Fein, and move May to the rotation (first option above all). To say nothing of Meyer, Pressly, O'Rourke, Berrios....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 1/14/2016 at 7:58 PM, Seth Stohs said:

No, I fully get the point... I just think that an offseason can do wonders. When guys have the stuff that those guys have, they can move quick. Doesn't mean they will. They weren't ready on September 1, but that has nothing to do with whether or not they're ready May 1. A lot happens in that time.

Again, that's not really the issue.  Of course quick development is possible, I don't think anyone is arguing that.

 

The issue is that, according to some people's explanation of the Twins bullpen approach this winter, they are counting on this quick development as likely.  I don't think a traditionally conservative organization, coming off a competitive year and hopefully entering another one, would count on that as likely, especially given the players in question and how little high level competition has actually taken place since our last evidence of the team's evaluation of them.

 

I would wager that the Twins inactivity in the relief market is almost certainly not based on their keen awareness of a behind-the-scenes rapid development of internal prospects; it's far more likely just a product of their conservative nature and their overrating of guys like Abad, Tonkin, the health of Perkins, etc., and underrating the need to start May.

[USAFChief]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 1:05 PM, Seth Stohs said:

There is, but they are people, so you never know what will happen.

Right...so it's really not a reason to avoid adding FA's to the pen.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 1:59 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I'd love it if even 2 of those relievers were up by May 1st, but it doesn't seem realistic for even 2 of them, let alone all 4 of them. Who do they replace? I'd vote in order: Nolasco, Abad, Fein, and move May to the rotation (first option above all). To say nothing of Meyer, Pressly, O'Rourke, Berrios....

Yeah, right now the Twins have about 12 returning pitchers projecting as likely to make the roster.  Then Abad, O'Rourke, Meyer, Graham, and Darnell... I know a few of these guys might get injured or cut by April, but it might be hard to whittle that group down to 10 as early as May 1st.  To press the issue that quickly, it might not be enough for Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis and Rogers to simply show signs they are ready, but have to demonstrate otherworldly dominance at a new level (or role in the case of Rogers).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 10:24 PM, Seth Stohs said:

I fully explains, in my mind, why they don't want to go beyond 1 year on any reliever.

Problem is, this is basically an automatic excuse to not sign FA relievers for every team, every year.  Every team in baseball every year has relief prospects with good stuff but no better than iffy AA experience who could in theory emerge quickly if things break right.  But things usually don't.

[howieramone2]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 7:33 PM, nicksaviking said:

Hmm, I recognize this name from Berardin's chat:

 

Mike Sixel (MN): Should I be worried that the Twins' starting DH isn't much of a prospect, or is that ranking not a ceiling one, but about control and other things? Or, are the other 6 so awesome that their starting DH can be ranked that low?

Mike Berardino: Park turns 30 in July. He's relatively untested coming from the KBO. Many factors. I actually had him a little lower originally but the BA guys wanted to move him up.

 

Interesting. A: Berardino does not appear to have final say over the list and B: He's much more skeptical than most of Park.

Or much less informed. BA has Ben Balder for international players.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 12:27 AM, h2oface said:

In other words, or my words...... It has to do with total opinion and bias with no firm criteria and standards, and everyone has an opinion, among other things. It can still be fun, though.

 

yeah, basically.  If you read Seth, Thrylos, Sickles, Shane, myself, or anyone, we all have different criteria. If someone were to figure out the magic elixir that was always right, there would be just one way to rank them.

[Liquidator]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 1:33 PM, nicksaviking said:

Because if he struggles making contact AND he can't lay off pitches, he'll never see a hittable pitch at the MLB level. Minor league pitchers will throw hittable pitches because A ) they're trying to prove they can throw strikes B ) they want to prove they can get power hitters out and C ) they're not as good as MLB pitchers at hitting their spots.

 

If he's not seeing hittable pitches, his positive stats obviously aren't going to be there.

 

More BB's than anyone on AAA roster (minus Rodriguez).  BB/K rate sucks.   Has yet to NOT produce at any level and it seems silly to predict failure that has not been there yet.  

 

Unless strikeouts compared to other outs is the definition of failure?  Would you take .220 with 35 homers and 110 rbi?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 9:34 PM, Liquidator said:

 

Unless strikeouts compared to other outs is the definition of failure?  Would you take .220 with 35 homers and 110 rbi?

Those are Dave Kingman-esque numbers but I don't see Walker getting there, more like .220/.280/.440 slash line.  He's more like a Chris Carter type player

[Liquidator]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 11:24 PM, Bob Sacamento said:

Those are Dave Kingman-esque numbers but I don't see Walker getting there, more like .220/.280/.440 slash line.  He's more like a Chris Carter type player

I tend to look at the improvements made each year in college.  Besides hitting .409 w/ .486 OBP (sophomore year), ABW actually had more games played than strikeouts his draft year.  "Major improvement"  Why couldn't he improve after several years in the MLB?  ABW has never repeated a level to show improvement.  Each level is a new experience.  Harder to judge improvement IMO

 

388 PA / vs Top 20 MLB prospects

28% K rate / 8.8% BB rate

extra base hit every 9th AB.  

 

Same arms he will face at the MLB level in the near future

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

  On 1/16/2016 at 12:02 AM, Liquidator said:

I tend to look at the improvements made each year in college.  Besides hitting .409 w/ .486 OBP (sophomore year), ABW actually had more games played than strikeouts his draft year.  "Major improvement"  Why couldn't he improve after several years in the MLB?  ABW has never repeated a level to show improvement.  Each level is a new experience.  Harder to judge improvement IMO

 

388 PA / vs Top 20 MLB prospects

28% K rate / 8.8% BB rate

extra base hit every 9th AB.  

 

Same arms he will face at the MLB level in the near future

I'd like to know where you got those stats from because Walker had 560 PA in 2015 so your trying to say he accrued 388 PA against Top 20 MiLB talent leaving 172 PA against non Top 20 talent? No way, MiLB has a list of every pitcher he faced this year and what you state is not feasible.

 

These are NOT the same arms that he will face in the future.  Its true that he'll face some of the same arms in the MLB but the majority of players in AA don't make it to the big leagues.  The further and further he climbs up the ladder, the harder and harder the level of competition gets.  Walker has shown improvement the further he's gone, he's also shown regression.  Walker has learned to walk more and that is seen in his BB% the past three seasons 5.6%, 7.9%, 9.1%.  Yet his K rate keeps getting worse 20.8%, 28.2%, 34.8%.  In an abbreviated season in the AFL (86 PA) Walker played against the "best of the best" his K rate was 9.3% and BB rate 40.7%.  Terry Ryan said it himself, strikeout rates usually tend not to go down the further one proceeds up levels.

 

I like AB, he's a great kid and his power is awesome but his inability to hit for contact and lay off sliders is becoming more and more of a problem the further he goes up in the levels.  I think he can succeed but his best case scenario is Chris Carter, his worse case is Pedro Cerrano.  Maybe Walker needs Joboo...

 

[Oxtung]

 

  Quote

 

There is, but they are people, so you never know what will happen.

 

Chief then said:

  On 1/15/2016 at 2:22 PM, USAFChief said:

Right...so it's really not a reason to avoid adding FA's to the pen.

 

Can't the same be said of the veteran relief pitchers Chief?

[TNLooky2015]

 

  On 1/16/2016 at 3:44 AM, Bob Sacamento said:

I'd like to know where you got those stats from because Walker had 560 PA in 2015 so your trying to say he accrued 388 PA against Top 20 MiLB talent leaving 172 PA against non Top 20 talent? No way, MiLB has a list of every pitcher he faced this year and what you state is not feasible.

 

Actually there is a website that shows every pitcher a player has faced in his career and every other prospect.  I suspect those numbers are for his minor league career and not just 2015.  Awesome site.

http://mlbfarm.com/index.php

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 9:34 PM, Liquidator said:

More BB's than anyone on AAA roster (minus Rodriguez).  BB/K rate sucks.   Has yet to NOT produce at any level and it seems silly to predict failure that has not been there yet.  

 

Unless strikeouts compared to other outs is the definition of failure?  Would you take .220 with 35 homers and 110 rbi?

 

I think problem number 1 is that you take it as fact that he could hit .220 with 35 HRs.  Players with his flaws don't usually make it to the majors. He certainly can be the exception to the rule, but more likely than not, he doesn't get there, and that is something that BA is taking into account when they put him further down on the list...  and please, spare me the 4 championships argument. Last I checked, there were 25 guys on a roster, 14 of which are going to be called starters of some type plus a closer. 

 

Bottom line is this:  Walker doesn't play a premium defensive position and he has a lot of question marks. It is not some sort of slight that keeps him down on the list, it's these two very key things. He won't the first guy not in the top 10 on a list to make the majors, and there have been plenty of guys not in the top 10 who turned out to be stars. The list simply recognizes what most of Walker's ardent apologists don't:  the odds aren't in his favor.  That doesn't mean he cannot succeed, he certainly has to date. It just means that he has more work to do.

[blairpaul715]

 

  On 1/13/2016 at 10:18 PM, Bob Sacamento said:

Scout I talked to who saw him in person comped him to Mitch Moreland, which would be good value.  ZiPs projections has Park with a line of .266/.333/.463/.796 with 27 HRs and good for 2.3 WAR - they comped him with Richie Sexson...  If he's anything close to either one of those two,

If he is either of these, it is a HR for the Twins, but I personally dont think he comes close, it just seems like such a big step up. I dont think these stats compute.

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 1/15/2016 at 2:35 PM, spycake said:

Problem is, this is basically an automatic excuse to not sign FA relievers for every team, every year.  Every team in baseball every year has relief prospects with good stuff but no better than iffy AA experience who could in theory emerge quickly if things break right.  But things usually don't.

 

Sure... but I think it's fine to go one year at a time with relievers. No more than two years. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

  On 1/14/2016 at 5:27 PM, clutterheart said:

The first rule of Low Minors Fielding % is you do not look at Low Minors Fielding %

The second rule of Low Minors Fielding % is you do NOT look at Low Minors Fielding %

 

Glance at error rates if you must, but…Fielding % only becomes meaningful around AA or AAA. For low minor guys you have to rely on scouting reports and everything I have seen on Gordon’s fielding ability is glowing.

 

His bat:

Here is Gordon’s progression as a 19 year old in Low A:

April - 75 AB .267/.305 /.347 - Not so great

May- 103 AB .204/.305 /.233 - Oh my God Guess we should start drafting a new SS of the future

June - 82 AB .293/.370/.341 There we go, things are getting better

July - 97 AB .309/.349/.423 Wow that scrawny kid is slugging in .400s?

Aug - 103 AB .311/.355/.437 Double Wow!

Sept - 21 AB .286/.318/.429 (5 games but not bad playoff production)

 

Furthermore he hit .699 OPS over 57 games as a SS in E-town as an 18 year old rookie. You're questioning that?

 

Ridiculous

 

Its fine to question Gordon if you must, but use meaningful data or observations from watching him....

It's too bad he started bad and had a bad month.

 

From June to September, he posted 300 AB of north of 750 OPS, closer to 760. Hopefully that scrawny kid with the bloodlines will keep it up this year....at Ft Myers?