Article: Max Power: Assessing Kepler's Timeline

[savvyspy]

I think it ends up being Rosario, Santana, Buxton, and Sano out of spring training. There will be enough warning signs that the Sano experiment is a horrible idea but the Twins are definitely elite in their stubborness and they will go with it. By mid-May the train will have left the tracks and they are going to be forced into moving Sano back to 3rd/DH and Plouffe will probably get some reps out in RF. This will force the next domino to fall as there aren't enough ABs for their top players and Plouffe gets dealt for a song at the deadline. Kepler is called up the next day. 

 

By the end of the season Sano will be the full time third baseman and the outfield will be Rosario, Santana, Kepler, and Buxton. 

 

It should be a fun year if all of the young guys are up and playing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So, if Kepler is "better", great. But calling this situation a "cobbled mess" is extreme to me. Uncertainty, yes, a mess, no.

One thing people tend to forget is that teams finishing a rebuild often resemble a "cobbled mess". Older, decent players are still on the roster, young prospects are fighting for jobs, and very little is certain in the short-term.

 

I wouldn't have built the Twins' roster as it stands today but I won't bash Ryan for it too much, either (not including the bullpen in the latter part of this statement). He's trying to prevent single points of failure (as in promoting a guy like Hicks with no one to back him up if he fails... No big deal on a 69 win team, a much bigger deal on an 81 win team).

 

Most of these "issues" will sort themselves out in the first two months of the season as guys succeed, fail, and get injured.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Actually, this may be the depth chart coming out of spring training for a reason other than that suggested by you, Levi, and Mike.

 

1. The Twins appear to be more confident in Sano's ability to perform in a corner OF spot than most of us. I can see him surprising us out there with his defense.

 

2. The light bulb could go off for Buxton. We might be quickly reminded about the kind of extraordinary impact scouts are projecting this player to offer.

 

3. Either or both Arcia and Santana could reclaim the stuff they showed us in glimpses. For both of them, the answer is very likely to come from straightening out what's in their heads.

 

So, if Kepler is "better", great. But calling this situation a "cobbled mess" is extreme to me. Uncertainty, yes, a mess, no.

 

As for Kepler, I'm excited about a couple of things. First Bernardo reports that other teams kept asking about him this winter, which is nice affirmation. Second, Molitor's comments are glowing and somewhat telling. He said he's looking forward to seeing if Kepler puts himself "in the mix" during spring training. I know it's popular around these parts to immediately assume the Twins will favor a less deserving veteran. But I think Molitor would be fairly assertive if he thought Kepler was ready and the third best starting option to start the season.

 

Look, Santana and Arcia could bounce back - I'm actually all-in on giving Arcia that chance in fact.  But you can't play Arcia and Sano in the outfield without trading a lot of defense for the hope of offense.  Even more so if Buxton is better left to develop in AAA and you are playing either Sano-Santana-Arcia or Sano-Rosario-Arcia.  If that doesn't make you cringe....well then I don't know what to tell you.

 

Next, you don't have to trade anything but money for Fowler.  Something the Twins still have plenty of, by the way.  Adding him and trading Plouffe is a wash offensively, but Fowler would be a legit top of the order hitter and would allow the team to play Sano at third and leave the other corner spot for Arcia.  Or, if Buxton is ready, then Fowler can play RF for a few months.

 

But planning on Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Rosario, and Santana as the outfield looks like a disaster waiting to happen if there is any kind of stumble.  And, as a group, is likely to be subpar defensively.

[Vanimal46]

I'm cringing already on behalf of our fly ball pitchers like E.Santana and Hughes the way our projected OF is looking like. Buxton can cover a lot of ground out there, but I don't think he's capable of covering over half of the OF, which is what he'd need if Arcia and Sano are playing next to him. Or in the case that Buxton starts in AAA, Rosario's going to need to play out of his mind defensively next to Santana and Sano/Arcia.

 

As much as I'd like to think our offense will improve with this cast of characters, I'm also envisioning a lot of Texas leaguers dropping for hits...

[bird]

 

Look, Santana and Arcia could bounce back - I'm actually all-in on giving Arcia that chance in fact.  But you can't play Arcia and Sano in the outfield without trading a lot of defense for the hope of offense.  Even more so if Buxton is better left to develop in AAA and you are playing either Sano-Santana-Arcia or Sano-Rosario-Arcia.  If that doesn't make you cringe....well then I don't know what to tell you.

 

Next, you don't have to trade anything but money for Fowler.  Something the Twins still have plenty of, by the way.  Adding him and trading Plouffe is a wash offensively, but Fowler would be a legit top of the order hitter and would allow the team to play Sano at third and leave the other corner spot for Arcia.  Or, if Buxton is ready, then Fowler can play RF for a few months.

 

But planning on Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Rosario, and Santana as the outfield looks like a disaster waiting to happen if there is any kind of stumble.  And, as a group, is likely to be subpar defensively.

 

 

Okay, you got me. I cringed at the thought of Arcia and Sano flanking even Buxton.

I think you convinced me that Fowler would be a decent idea, as I'd forgotten he was a FA. So, in my mind, if any three of Buxton, Rosario, Santana, Kepler, and Sano prove to be inadequate defensively out of the gate...and it certainly is possible that four of these guys leave something to be desired on opening day.

 

I suppose Ryan thinks he's covered that potential "temporary" problem with Mastro, Sweeney, and Benson. 

 

It's a cobbled mess.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Okay, you got me. I cringed at the thought of Arcia and Sano flanking even Buxton.

I think you convinced me that Fowler would be a decent idea, as I'd forgotten he was a FA. So, in my mind, if any three of Buxton, Rosario, Santana, Kepler, and Sano prove to be inadequate defensively out of the gate...and it certainly is possible that four of these guys leave something to be desired on opening day.

 

I suppose Ryan thinks he's covered that potential "temporary" problem with Mastro, Sweeney, and Benson. 

 

It's a cobbled mess.

 

The issue with my idea is that I think it's a pipedream that Plouffe gets traded.  If Sano is in the outfield we end up with either a really crap option in CF (Rosario) or Arcia is on the outside looking in again.

 

But something like Fowler-Dozier-Mauer-Sano-Arcia-Park-Rosario-Murphy-Escobar looks a lot better to me than swapping Fowler for Plouffe and having some hideous outfield configuration.

[kab21]

 

I simply do not understand the Buxton skepticism. It is not grounded in reality.

Take a look at Mike Trout's first year in MLB - 2011. 

Trout was 27 for 123 - a batting average of 220 and OPS of 672

Buxton was 27 for 129 a batting average of 209 and OPS of 576

The transition to MLB is way more difficult than people realize. 

When Buxton comes up, he will be up to stay.

Great sample size of one.  And that one is contending to be a top 5 player of all time.

 

The skepticism as to when he is ready is justified though.  At this point he almost too talented to be a complete bust but who knows what he will be.  At least a competent starter imo.

[Old Twins Cap]

I'm not an expert on GMs and what they look at, but Plouffe is going to Arb this week and will likely settle with the Twins at @7M.

 

I'm not sure, if you are the GM, you trade for Plouffe until after his contract is settled.

 

After this week, it will be.  Who wants him?  Sure, he's injury protection for the Twins lineup, a nice luxury to have.  But, he's also a league average player at a position the Twins have a potential game changing all-star.

 

So, lots of cringing to this point that the Twins haven't made a move, but maybe you don't make a move like this until after the Arb contract is settled.

 

 

[kab21]

That really has nothing to do with trading Plouffe.  The few teams that could have traded for Plouffe have addressed 3B and didn't give up much to do so.  This was basically one of the worst offseasons to have a player like Plouffe on the trade block.  3B is a really deep position right now.

[Blackjack]

 

I simply do not understand the Buxton skepticism. It is not grounded in reality.

Take a look at Mike Trout's first year in MLB - 2011. 

Trout was 27 for 123 - a batting average of 220 and OPS of 672

Buxton was 27 for 129 a batting average of 209 and OPS of 576

The transition to MLB is way more difficult than people realize. 

When Buxton comes up, he will be up to stay.

I hope you are correct!!! Great defense and an acceptable bat for the next 10 years would be great!!!

 

Lets also hope he has learned that he doesn't have to be superman and stays healthy...

 

Only time will tell.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess the question is whether you trade Plouffe for anything. Look at what Frasier got. Not much. You might get a B- prospect or a C+ guy for Plouffe or perhaps 2, but I'm not sure it would be a spec as good Palka.  Would people be OK with this?  I'm guessing there would be a lot of hand wringing over this one, call me crazy. 

 

As for the Fowler idea, I like it. Just be very prepared for a rather underwhelming return on Plouffe.  That doesn't strike me as something TR does.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wanted to see a Plouffe trade explored but after what happened at third this offseason, holding on to him was probably the smart move. Trading a decent player for junk just so you can slide another player into his place isn't a good way to run a franchise.

[tobi0040]

 

I wanted to see a Plouffe trade explored but after what happened at third this offseason, holding on to him was probably the smart move. Trading a decent player for junk just so you can slide another player into his place isn't a good way to run a franchise.

 

True, but in response to keeping him I would argue the best way forward may be to use Plouffe as a super utility guy, rather than moving Sano to the OF.   It sounds like it was questionable to begin with if Sano could stick at 3B but the Twins seemed nothing but confident that he could.  I fear moving him to the OF now means he will never be moved back to 3B.  He could be an OF for 1-2 years, then a DH for the next 15.  Holding Plouffe for an extra year or two could literally erode 20+ WAR from Sano's career if that is the case (versus him at 3B)

 

At the very least, keeping Plouffe was a possiblity all along.  We get an F for not giving Sano some reps in the OF in meaningless minor league games.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree, don't give Plouffe up for nothing.  But it seems to me it was never even explored or an option even on the table.

 

Like it or not, his presence is part of the outfield problem.

[Sir_Eugene11]

 

This is the year Kepler HAS to get some major Major League playing time. Next year will be his 4th on the 40-man (the Twins added him earlier than necessary because of the potential of someone grabbing him from the system). They need to evaluate him to see if he will stay in the system, possibly become tradebait, or what.

He still has at least two more option years despite this being his 4th year on the 40-man roster, right?

[Physics Guy]

 

I fear moving him to the OF now means he will never be moved back to 3B.  He could be an OF for 1-2 years, then a DH for the next 15.  Holding Plouffe for an extra year or two could literally erode 20+ WAR from Sano's career if that is the case (versus him at 3B).

Considering Plouffe is only +1.8 that past three years for dWar, you might be overshooting a bit for Sano.

[howieramone2]

 

Somewhere Terry Ryan, I believe, mentioned Kepler needing to hit breaking balls better in the minors. there is no way he is starting 2016 with the Twins.

 

Still can't get my head around not trading Plouffe. It's not rational.

 If Sano puts up 20-25 errors at 3B it could hold up the parade. They are obviously not willing to hand him the 3B job fulltime, if ever. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I guess all depends on how Sano does in the OF weighed in against Arcia or anyone else would do as the 3rd OF'er. Add on how Plouffe would do compared to that guy and Sano at 3B. Both offensively and defensively. I honestly think it might matter what handed pitcher we are facing even.

 

Would it be the worst idea to play Sano at 3b and Arcia in the OF vs RHP's and Plouffe at 3B and Sano in the OF vs LHP's to some degree? Also think Rosario should get platooned some against LHP's. Just my thoughts.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, it will be interesting what they do with Kepler and Polanco, if they keep everybody else around. Kepler and Polanco are good players who would *really* fill the roster with quality if the team is in contention for the playoffs.

 

Another question, at what point might Polanco give up at SS and try to add 3B as another defensive option for him? (not saying that he can't be a starting SS, just that it is possible, and then he certainly should be thinking about being a true IF utility player until a 2B gig opens up somewhere.

[Vanimal46]

 

Also, it will be interesting what they do with Kepler and Polanco, if they keep everybody else around. Kepler and Polanco are good players who would *really* fill the roster with quality if the team is in contention for the playoffs.

 

Another question, at what point might Polanco give up at SS and try to add 3B as another defensive option for him? (not saying that he can't be a starting SS, just that it is possible, and then he certainly should be thinking about being a true IF utility player until a 2B gig opens up somewhere.

If Polanco has the arm to play SS I would imagine he could play some 3B too. That would be a logical solution to make up for the Twins' lack of depth at 3B in the upper minors. I would certainly be more excited to see him as the utility IF player instead of Nunez...

[tobi0040]

 

Considering Plouffe is only +1.8 that past three years for dWar, you might be overshooting a bit for Sano.

 

Plouffe is here another year or two max.  I am calculating the next 10-15 years for Sano as a DH vs. a 3B.  I think if we move him off 3B now, that is likely where he will be the rest of his career.

 

In 2012,

 

Plouffe (3B) had an OPS+ of 106 in 119 games and had an oWAR of 2. 

Adam Dunn (DH) had an OPS+ of 114 in 150 games and had an oWAR of 2.

Edited January 14, 2016 by tobi0040

[theJemmer]

TR will keep him down as long as he can.

[Otwins]

One drawback I see in trying to sign Dexter Fowler is that Span got three years and I think Fowler gets at least that. I would not sign him.  I think we have to be patient.  This will sort itself out and the good news is there are options.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Plouffe is here another year or two max.  I am calculating the next 10-15 years for Sano as a DH vs. a 3B.  I think if we move him off 3B now, that is likely where he will be the rest of his career.

 

In 2012,

 

Plouffe (3B) had an OPS+ of 106 in 119 games and had an oWAR of 2. 

Adam Dunn (DH) had an OPS+ of 114 in 150 games and had an oWAR of 2.

I see your point but this is only important if the Twins permanently move Sano off third base.

 

If he was 26 or 27, I'd be worried he's done with third forever, a la Michael Cuddyer... But he's only 22 years old. I don't like the idea of moving a 22 year old slugger off-position but I don't think it will kill him, either.

[tobi0040]

 

I see your point but this is only important if the Twins permanently move Sano off third base.

 

If he was 26 or 27, I'd be worried he's done with third forever, a la Michael Cuddyer... But he's only 22 years old. I don't like the idea of moving a 22 year old slugger off-position but I don't think it will kill him, either.

 

I just think if it is iffy that he sticks at 3B at 22, moving him to the OF for 1-2 years is going to make it difficult to move him back

 

If we can't get anything of value for Plouffe, he should play 3B 30 times, 1B 20-30 times, and the OF a bit.    We should at least attempt keeping a 35-40 HR bat at 3B

Edited January 15, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just think if it is iffy that he sticks at 3B at 22, moving him to the OF for 1-2 years is going to make it difficult to move him back

 

If we can't get anything of value for Plouffe, he should play 3B 30 times, 1B 20-30 times, and the OF a bit.    We should at least attempt keeping a 35-40 HR bat at 3B

If Sano can play third, I agree. I'd keep Plouffe at third most of the time because he gets much of his value from defense (and the goal in 2016 is to win as many games as possible) but I'd try to work Sano in at the hot corner twice a week or so.

[davidc3915]

At one point, does the return for Plouffe become irrelevant if moving him, and moving Sano to 3b improves the lineup substantially?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

At one point, does the return for Plouffe become irrelevant if moving him, and moving Sano to 3b improves the lineup substantially?

 

Yeah, I'd agree there.  Only real issue presently is that there's a lot of question marks in the OF, and I'm not even sure I'd call Sano a sure thing at the moment.  Sophomore slumps are real and happen.  I think Sano will answer some of those questions about himself (and hopefully well), but the OF situation will take some time to figure out.  If Sano is playing there for the time being, I'm fine with that.  I'm guessing the reality TR saw this offseason is that he wasn't going to get much for Plouffe, at which point, keeping him was the better option. 

 

You may see Trevor traded for next to nothing next offseason b/c the team doesn't need him, but I'm not certain this team can say that right now.

[Linus]

By the 4th of July I hope our outfield from left to right is rosario, Buxton and Kepler with Sano at third. Trevor can be traded or move around but his presence shouldn't dictate the lineup

[Thrylos]

 

I simply do not understand the Buxton skepticism. It is not grounded in reality.

 

Have you seen Buxton try to hit a curve ball.  At any level?   That is the reality and not what Trout could do or did whenever.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Thrylos