Article: Max Power: Assessing Kepler's Timeline

[Nick Nelson]

With spring training less than six weeks away, the Twins' outfield remains amorphous. We can't say with any degree of confidence who will be starting at any of the three positions and we might not have any real clarity on the matter until camp gets underway.

 

One wild card in this equation is Max Kepler. How, and when, might the ascending young prospect fit into the team's outfield picture?Kepler is, of course, coming off a huge breakout season in which he was named the organization's Minor League Player of the Year after hitting .322/.416/.531 with 54 extra-base hits, 19 steals and a phenomenal 63-to-67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 games at Class-AA Chattanooga. His campaign ended with a September call-up to the big leagues at age 22.

 

The fast-rising outfielder is featured on the cover of the recently released 2016 Twins Prospect Handbook and could very well be a factor in the 2016 campaign. But how quickly is it realistic to believe he'll become a viable option? Could he make a legitimate play for an Opening Day spot?

 

The fluidity of the outfield situation would appear to leave that door open. Eddie Rosario is basically assured a job, and – barring an unforeseen Trevor Plouffe trade – so is Miguel Sano. With Aaron Hicks gone, that leaves one opening, which could be center or a corner spot. The contenders for that gig are all questionable to varying degrees. Oswaldo Arcia is coming off a wreck of a season. Byron Buxton may need more seasoning. Danny Santana is a less than appealing option. Ryan Sweeney, Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson? Meh.

 

Kepler certainly has more momentum behind him than any of those names, and there is precedent for a prospect turning the corner at Double-A and overtaking a vacant outfield job the following spring. Hicks did so in 2013, following the trades of Denard Span and Ben Revere. While that obviously didn't end well, Kepler is coming off a considerably more impressive year at Chattanooga than Hicks' 2012 at New Britain.

 

Still, as a kid who was signed at age 16 out of Germany and was always viewed as more of a long-term project, I think the Twins will be more inclined to show patience with Kepler. His hit tool has developed very gradually in the minors and while his 2015 campaign was a very encouraging one, I believe they'll be inclined to give him some time in Triple-A before considering him as anything other an an emergency option in the majors. While he'll be in big-league camp this spring, I suspect that even with a big performance in Grapefruit League play, he'll be ticketed for Rochester out of the gates.

 

How long will he stay there? That will be dictated by what happens in the Twins outfield and of course by his own performance. It isn't difficult to envision Kepler entering the fold by June or July, and perhaps earlier if injuries strike. I also wouldn't be surprised if he spends the entire year at Triple-A, even with solid production, because Buxton is ahead of him in line and it behooves the Twins to give Arcia a good long look this year.

 

Really, what it comes down to is that the guy standing in front of Kepler is Plouffe. Once he's gone and Sano can return to third, the path becomes much clearer.

 

Whenever Kepler does arrive, he'll have a pretty good chance at quickly establishing himself as the best European player in MLB history -- a highly attainable title given the relatively untapped nature of that market. Sometime this season, a Minnesota Twins lineup could feature representation from Germany (Kepler), Dominican Republic (Sano), Puerto Rico (Rosario), Venezuela (Eduardo Escobar) and South Korea (Byung Ho Park). That's an exciting mix of nationalities that reflects the growing international flavor of baseball as a whole. I love it.

 

When do you expect Kepler to be here?

 

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[Liquidator]

injury call up whenever

[ThejacKmp]

Yeah, if he hits well, no way that Kepler stays in the minors past June. He'd be the obvious call up if any of the following were injured: Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe, Buxton, Rosario . That's basically everywhere but catcher, second and shortstop and doesn't even include that he'd likely replace Arcia as the 4th OF (I'm assuming Buxton starts with the ML squad). I'm hoping for Twins health but it is pretty unlikely all of those guys are totally healthy.

 

That's really why keeping Plouffe is not as big of a deal as out baseball-starved winter obsessing makes it. Plouffe really means that when someone gets hurt it's Kepler stepping in rather than . . . Reynaldo Rodriguez? Maybe ABW? The Twins lineup has remarkable depth this year (second and short are covered by Santana/Polanco while an injury at catcher doesn't mean sub .200 Chris Hermann/Fryer types). That's one of the big strengths for the Twinkies this year.

[Blackjack]

My prediction is that Kepler gets called up in mid-May to replace Buxton, who gets sent back to AAA because of his .198 batting average.

 

Plouffe doesn't get traded mid-season unless the Twins are 10+ games out and they get a heck of an offer,  a couple of prime prospects, from a playoff contender.

 

Rosario, Buxton, Sano out of spring training.

 

Rosario, Kepler, Sano by June 1st.

 

Rosario, Kepler, Sano, Buxton splitting time by Sept 1. Sano starting to get more starts at third.

 

Arcia hangs on all year with an occasional start, doing more DH duties when Park gets sent to AAA in May.

 

The outfield/third base jam gets settled next off-season by trader Terry.

 

Thats my prediction and I'm sticking to it. Of course injuries can and will happen but that just means someone gets called up a little sooner from AAA.

[roger]

The Twins should have several desirable assets other teams may want/need as the calendar turns to July.  Plouffe, Arcia, and one or two of Nolasco, Santana, Milone or Hughes.

 

Unless there is a wave of injuries, that is when I see spots opening up and Kepler, Berrios and even Vargas making their permanent move to the Twin Cities.

[HitInAPinch]

IDK, that 'breakout' from Kepler was a pretty big change.  If it were anyone else, we'd be hearing from people that this would make him a probable candidate for regression.  His 1st - 2nd half numbers are pretty compatible. 

 

Definitely a long look in Spring Training.  I'm betting management takes a conservative approach and Kepler starts in AAA.

 

In the outfield:  as the Twins have added more offense and stability in the everyday lineup, I could see Buxton starting in CF for defensive purposes.  No matter where Sano starts out there, he's gonna have a rough start.  Both Buxton and Rosario have the arm and speed to cover a lot of ground, whether it's CF / LF or CF / RF.    But still think Buxton doesn't make it out of SP.

[TheLeviathan]

I fear the choices we make in March are going to all but assure that by July we are sellers.  While depth is nice to have, it's better to actually field the best possible lineup you can from the get go.  

 

This team only contended because of how it played the first two months, putting a group of outfielders like Sano-Rosario-Arcia could be an outright disaster.  And if they keep Buxton for defense alone then you are altering what you think is best for him as a hitter because of the corner you backed yourself into over the winter.  

 

Trade Plouffe and go sign Fowler to a one year deal.  Bring up Buxton when he's ready and then move Fowler to the corner.  Or call up Kepler.  Or trade Fowler.  Do whatever, but give yourself some real options rather than this cobbled mess.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the OF out of spring training is Arcia, Sano, Sweeney, and Rosario. Just my 2 cents. I want Buxton to prove it in AAA as well s Kepler, and I think the Twins (rightfully) want to give Arcia another shot. That changes if by chance Plouffe is traded this spring, but the only way that happens is if a team loses a 3B to injury and suddenly has a need. The Frasier trade showed us how little Plouffe will get, but a sudden need might make someone sweeten the pot enough to get Ryan to pull the trigger.

 

I do agree on depth. This team is deep and can survive an injury pretty much anywhere other than C or RP (and even RP will likely change as the year goes on).  The real problem is finding playing time for everyone. The inevitable injury will take care of that, but those don't always happen at convenient times.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I fear the choices we make in March are going to all but assure that by July we are sellers.  While depth is nice to have, it's better to actually field the best possible lineup you can from the get go.  

 

This team only contended because of how it played the first two months, putting a group of outfielders like Sano-Rosario-Arcia could be an outright disaster.  And if they keep Buxton for defense alone then you are altering what you think is best for him as a hitter because of the corner you backed yourself into over the winter.  

 

Trade Plouffe and go sign Fowler to a one year deal.  Bring up Buxton when he's ready and then move Fowler to the corner.  Or call up Kepler.  Or trade Fowler.  Do whatever, but give yourself some real options rather than this cobbled mess.  

 

I agree with this......it looks like (and it is not a totally unreasonble plan) they are planning to keep the vets, and keep the youth in AA and AAA for depth (Berrios, for example)......while that might be reasonable, it is not likely to put the BEST group of players on the field day 1. Santana and Arcia being out of options really changes things, imo, from putting the best players out there.

[Dantes929]

Quibbling a bit here but Sano is not guaranteed a spot in the outfield barring a Plouffe trade.   He is guaranteed a spot in the outfield if he can show that he can play competently out there.    Unlike many others here I see no reason that won't happen.   He is athletic, pretty fast and confident in himself.    If he does fail out there then you consider trading Plouffe.    If we can't get much for Plouffe now it doesn't really matter   if we can't get much for him later but I don't see how we have painted ourselves in a corner and will get less if we decide to trade him.   I am guessing there are more than two teams for which Plouffe would be an upgrade.

[Dr. Evil]

These are great problems to have. I'm very excited to see it play out. Having said that, I believe they will error on the side of giving those guys who are out of options a longer leash so that this depth stays in tact until the cream rises to the top with great clarity as opposed to guessing at who those players might be. I can understand where patience can be a heavy contributor to the long term.

[Vanimal46]

Yep, agreed with Mike and Levi. If they were to start the season with the best talent, Kepler would be up either as the 4th OF or starting in a corner OF spot. But I fear this is the depth chart the way the Twins see it:

- Rosario
- Sano
- Buxton
- Arcia
- Danny Santana
- Kepler

Barring injury to 2 or more of the 5 OF's above Kepler, I don't think we're going to see him in the majors until September call-ups again. 

[Steve Lein]

I don't think the Twins are all that inclined to keep him in the minors if he's producing since they're already burning options on him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but they've used two of his already (though he's near 100% bet for a fourth).

 

However, with Arcia and Santana being out of options, you likely have to give them their chances first.

 

Can't wait for Kepler to arrive full-time. I've said this here many times, but he was the first prospect I ever watched in person where the eye-test drastically changed my overall opinion and/or evaluation of a guy for the better. He was the best player on any diamond of the back fields in 2012 Spring Training while playing with the Beloit roster that had Sano, Rosario, and Vargas on it. It still boggles my mind he did not play in the MWL that year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I could see Kepler spending most, if not all, of 2016 in the minors.

 

It all depends on the play of two players.

 

Byron Buxton: Well, duh.

 

Oswaldo Arcia: If he bounces back at all, he could cement himself into the lineup for the entire season, which pinches Kepler quite a bit.

 

On the other hand, it's possible Rosario regresses in a brutal, painful fashion and we see the two previous players get regular time and Kepler replaces Rosario, not the other two guys.

[tobi0040]

I start from a premise that we have a trade lined up for Plouffe but just want to see if that offer gets better.  I also believe the Arcia ship has sailed.  I think the Twins saw the value in athletic, good defensive OF last year and what it did to our pitching.

 

I think Plouffe gets traded before the season and Arcia gets one more shot in the OF. 

 

April 1 - Rosario, Buxton, Arcia in the OF (Sano at 3B), Arcia is a placeholder for Kepler (and also trying to boost his trade value)

 

June 1 - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler in the OF.  Arica traded, cut, or platooned somewhere

 

 

[kab21]

I think Kepler's chance at making the team on opening day are <5% but there is a scenario that exists.

 

If Buxton is headed to AAA then the OF could be a mess.  It might be apparent that Santana and the retreads can't cut it and Rosario becomes the CF by default.  A combination of not wanting a below avg OF defense at all 3 spots and Kepler looking really good (and ready) could lead to a opening day surprise.  I think it is more likely that they go with a retread for a month or two until it becomes painfully obvious but possibly (small chance) not.

 

I think everybody is expected Kepler to regress.  The thing about his stats is that he has always had good K:BB ratios.  Obviously he won't maintain a 1:1 ratio or BAPIP .359 long term but regressed stats still look very good.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think everybody is expected Kepler to regress.  The thing about his stats is that he has always had good K:BB ratios.  Obviously he won't maintain a 1:1 ratio or BAPIP .359 long term but regressed stats still look very good.

I expect regression due to BABIP but with those peripherals, he should still post good numbers.

 

And let's not forget how undeveloped Max was and that he's only entering his age 23 season. In 2015, he hit a whopping 47 2B/3B and only 9 HR. There's a good chance as he approaches his mid-20s, those doubles and triples start going over the fence with more frequency.

[Rosterman]

This is the year Kepler HAS to get some major Major League playing time. Next year will be his 4th on the 40-man (the Twins added him earlier than necessary because of the potential of someone grabbing him from the system). They need to evaluate him to see if he will stay in the system, possibly become tradebait, or what.

 

It will be interesting to see how he works out. When you talk of him going into the outfield (with Buxton and Rosario), then that means Sano will go back to third, and at this point, please put Sano at third then and trade off Plouffe.

 

There is also the possibility of first base, but Mauer creates a roadblock there. And if Park shows life, we are really blocked up in the DH/1B world.

 

The hopes are that Arcia and Rosario show enough in 2016 to viable trade pieces. That would free up roster space.

 

Remember, we also have Walker in the wings or could also patrol one of the corner spots.

 

Spring Training will be fun to follow in 2016!

 

[kab21]

 

It will be interesting to see how he works out. When you talk of him going into the outfield (with Buxton and Rosario), then that means Sano will go back to third, and at this point, please put Sano at third then and trade off Plouffe.

 

I think it is a little over-optimistic to expect all players to work out and not be injured.  Pitchers could adjust to Rosario and he can't hit enough to be an MLB starter.  Park might not be able to adjust to MLB pitching.  Kepler probably has the most upside but good prospects flop all of the time.  Buxton is almost too talented to not work out but it could happen.

 

The Twins OF could be stacked in a year or two but it is also possible that it is merely decent after a bust or two and a disappointment.

[Wyorev]

 

My prediction is that Kepler gets called up in mid-May to replace Buxton, who gets sent back to AAA because of his .198 batting average.

 

I simply do not understand the Buxton skepticism. It is not grounded in reality.

Take a look at Mike Trout's first year in MLB - 2011. 

Trout was 27 for 123 - a batting average of 220 and OPS of 672

Buxton was 27 for 129 a batting average of 209 and OPS of 576

The transition to MLB is way more difficult than people realize. 

When Buxton comes up, he will be up to stay.

[EddieMatthews]

I agree with other posters that the Twins will give Arcia and Santana time to establish value in April and May.  Buxton will claim CF with a strong spring, otherwise Santana will start there.  Arcia will start as DH and occasional RF.  Rosario will be in LF.  Sano may be a "project" in RF, and will get DH and 3B play.

 

By June I expect all this to sort out.  Rosario, Buxton, Kepler will be in the outfield.  Sano, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer will be the infield with Plouffe filling in at 3B and 1B.  Park will get some seasoning in Rochester and be at DH by June.  

 

The Twins need to field a solid defensive team to support their pitching staff.  Hughes is a fly ball pitcher, so he would not be happy with Sano and Arcia at the corners.  All pitchers would love to have Buxton and Rosario covering the outfield.

 

Can't wait for Summer!  Less optimistic about April and May.

[tobi0040]

 

I agree with other posters that the Twins will give Arcia and Santana time to establish value in April and May.  Buxton will claim CF with a strong spring, otherwise Santana will start there.  Arcia will start as DH and occasional RF.  Rosario will be in LF.  Sano may be a "project" in RF, and will get DH and 3B play.

 

By June I expect all this to sort out.  Rosario, Buxton, Kepler will be in the outfield.  Sano, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer will be the infield with Plouffe filling in at 3B and 1B.  Park will get some seasoning in Rochester and be at DH by June.  

 

The Twins need to field a solid defensive team to support their pitching staff.  Hughes is a fly ball pitcher, so he would not be happy with Sano and Arcia at the corners.  All pitchers would love to have Buxton and Rosario covering the outfield.

 

Can't wait for Summer!  Less optimistic about April and May.

 

I agree with everything here, except I don't see a scenario where Sano is in the infield and Plouffe is still on the team, unless you have an extended injury from Mauer or Sano.  I think Park's $14M locks him in at DH and if he is outmatched, we would probably be better off with Arcia at DH than Plouffe.  

 

We can draw up a few intriguing platoon situations with Plouffe still around, but I don't see the Twins taking any material amounts of at bats from Sano, Mauer, or Park (not from Park right away)

[jimbo92107]

It all depends on Oswaldo Arcia. If he comes to spring training healthy and with sharpened skills in right field, then he probably gets one last full shot, which probably keeps Kepler in AAA. When Arcia was healthy, his power swing was hard to ignore. If he is finally ready to act like a pro, he could be pretty good. 

[Shane Wahl]

Somewhere Terry Ryan, I believe, mentioned Kepler needing to hit breaking balls better in the minors. there is no way he is starting 2016 with the Twins.

 

Still can't get my head around not trading Plouffe. It's not rational.

 

[OldTimeTwinkie]

A year ago at the AFL, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler were all available to watch. With a sss to me Kepler looked to be the best prospect of the three with Rosario second and Buxton third. Kepler reminded me of a young Morneau. Big smooth lefty. Would not surprise me if he turns out to be the best of the three.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Really, what it comes down to is that the guy standing in front of Kepler is Plouffe. Once he's gone and Sano can return to third, the path becomes much clearer.
 

 

Nailed it there. Just one more reason (there are several) to trade Plouffe as soon as they can get decent value for him.  Obviously different people have different ideas of what "decent value" means in this context.

[Dr. Evil]

 

Somewhere Terry Ryan, I believe, mentioned Kepler needing to hit breaking balls better in the minors. there is no way he is starting 2016 with the Twins.

 

Still can't get my head around not trading Plouffe. It's not rational.

I see no problem with leaving the cupboard a little overstocked short term until a favorable return surfaces.

[bird]

 

Yep, agreed with Mike and Levi. If they were to start the season with the best talent, Kepler would be up either as the 4th OF or starting in a corner OF spot. But I fear this is the depth chart the way the Twins see it:

- Rosario
- Sano
- Buxton
- Arcia
- Danny Santana
- Kepler

Barring injury to 2 or more of the 5 OF's above Kepler, I don't think we're going to see him in the majors until September call-ups again. 

 

 

Actually, this may be the depth chart coming out of spring training for a reason other than that suggested by you, Levi, and Mike.

 

1. The Twins appear to be more confident in Sano's ability to perform in a corner OF spot than most of us. I can see him surprising us out there with his defense.

 

2. The light bulb could go off for Buxton. We might be quickly reminded about the kind of extraordinary impact scouts are projecting this player to offer.

 

3. Either or both Arcia and Santana could reclaim the stuff they showed us in glimpses. For both of them, the answer is very likely to come from straightening out what's in their heads.

 

So, if Kepler is "better", great. But calling this situation a "cobbled mess" is extreme to me. Uncertainty, yes, a mess, no.

 

As for Kepler, I'm excited about a couple of things. First Bernardo reports that other teams kept asking about him this winter, which is nice affirmation. Second, Molitor's comments are glowing and somewhat telling. He said he's looking forward to seeing if Kepler puts himself "in the mix" during spring training. I know it's popular around these parts to immediately assume the Twins will favor a less deserving veteran. But I think Molitor would be fairly assertive if he thought Kepler was ready and the third best starting option to start the season.

[Mike Sixel]

Sure, those things could all fall in place.....it seems unlikely though. I don't see any way he's up to start the year, except that this is his 2nd/3rd option year already.....admittedly, I have a prospect crush on him for some reason.

[bird]

And sure, all six things could fall OUT of place to start the season, but how likely is THAT?

 

Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, and Kepler.

 

If you vote for four bad outcomes, you push for them to trade valuable assets off for Fowler I guess. Even if, for example, Buxton and Kepler are ready later in the year? That's where it gets questionable for me.