Article: Arbitration Figures Exchanged This Week

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Aside from a three-day flurry of moves in early November, the winter has largely been ho-hum for the Twins and their fans. The bullpen? Same. Plouffe and Sano?! Yep. Rotation help? Nada. Mauer back to catcher? Don't you even...This week, however, there guarantees to be news* with the team and its six arbitration-eligible players. There are two deadlines this week: Tuesday is the deadline for these players to file for arbitration and Friday is the deadline to exchange figures. As has been the case over the past handful of years, the Twins and the players will file their figures and eventually the two parties settle right around the midpoint of those figures. This can happen any time before the arbitration hearing takes place.

 

The Twins haven't gone to arbitration with a player since losing to Kyle Lohse in 2006 and 2007.

 

Projecting arbitration figures can be fun and frustrating. Teams and players will typically base their filed salary on players they find comparable. Teams looking for comparable players making less and players looking for comparable players making more.

 

You can find these projections all over the place, but instead of simply making a guess, here you'll find a comparable. And for the sake of consistency, you're going to get a comparable from the team's point of view. (What that means is that this number will probably be closer to what the team files and where they settle will be a few hundred thousand dollars - give or take - higher.)

 

Eduardo Escobar, SS

 

Escobar narrowly missed qualifying for arbitration last year and stands to make in excess of a million dollars in 2016. While MLBTR has Escobar slotted for $1.8 million, I expect the team to file for much less. My comparison: Alexi Amarista of the Padres. While Amarista played in over 100 games in each of his pre-arbitration season and Escobar has only done it twice, Amarista and Escobar have shared a super-utility role. Going into arbitration last year, Amarista was a 2.0 bWAR player who played primarily shortstop but also second base, third base and outfield. Going into Escobar's first arbitration season? A 2.0 bWAR player who played primarily at shortstop but also second base, third base and outfield. How did Amarista make out? He signed a two-year deal that included base salaries of $1.1 million and $1.3 million and also got a $100K signing bonus. The salary I'd file: $1.25 million. I'd anticipate Escobar's camp is going to come to the table focusing on Escobar as a shortstop and using that to increase his value.

 

Trevor Plouffe, 3B

 

Plouffe's case has to be viewed a little differently because he entered arbitration as a Super-2, so despite being a 4+ player he's already entering his third arbitration-eligible season. He'll see the added value of getting a fourth season next year. The best recent comparison for Plouffe is David Freese. While not perfect, Freese took a leap from $3.15 million to $5.05 million to $6.425 million. The last figure came as a settlement at the midpoint after the team filed at $5.25 million and the team countered at $7.6 million. Currently, MLBTR has Plouffe down for $7.7 million. He might be a slightly better player than Freese, but getting more than Freese even filed for? That seems a bit excessive. Plouffe jumped from $2.35 million to $4.8 million last year. Where would I file? $6.25 million. Even if Plouffe files at $7.7 million, the midpoint is still a shade under $7 million.

 

Tommy Milone, P

 

Milone is coming off a Super-2 season where he played at replacement level. Not that the Super-2 designation is important is this situation, but the most likely comparable is Mike Minor, who was also coming off a replacement level-type season going into his 3+ season. Minor got an increase in salary of 45%. A similar increase for Milone, who MLBTR has pegged for $4.5 million, would leave my figure at $4 million.

 

Eduardo Nunez, INF

 

Nunez is tough to peg. Mostly because players like himself don't make it to arbitration the second time. After making $1.25 million last season, I'd make the same offer this season.

 

Kevin Jepsen, RP

 

Jepsen is the type of player that will likely see a large gap between the team's and player's filing figure. Jepsen's camp will view him as a closer and think he should be paid as one. The club will have a hard time arguing that he isn't - since that's basically the only role he played for them - but they will try. Jepsen also got a pretty significant raise before last season, earning $3.025 million as a middle reliever. Looking at a handful of different closer-types, I would file at $4.65 million, a far cry from MLBTR's $6.0 million. Jepsen could also be an extension candidate. Could the Twins sign the free-agent-to-be to a two-year/$11 million deal? Should they?

 

Casey Fien, RP

 

Fien is another one of those cases of trying to find a comparison in a situation where his best comps were non-tendered. Shawn Kelley made less than a million dollars in his first arbitration year and then nearly doubled his salary after a replacement-level season. Fien made $1.375 million as a Super-2, but shouldn't command twice that. The issue remains, though, that there isn't a good comparable that settled in the arbitration process. The Twins probably can't get by offering less than $2 million.

 

Regardless of how and when all these cases are handled, at least there will be news* right?

 

 

 

 

*It really depends on your definition of "news."

 

Click here to view the article

[Liquidator]

When are we at risk to lose Escobar to free agency?  Should we talk extension with him?  Secure position until Gordon is ready?

[Seth Stohs]

Here are my guesses/projections (OK, guesses):

 

Escobar: Twins offer $1.4, Escobar asks for $2.2... will get around the $1.8M projection. (would consider a two-year, $3.2M deal... wouldn't go longer)

 

Plouffe: I'd guess he'll ask for $8.5 and the Twins will counter around $6.8, and they'll settle around $7.5M. 

 

Milone: I'd guess the Twins offer is about $3.6M... his side will want $4.6M, so I think they'll be around $4.1M.

 

Nunez: Twins can offer about $1.3. Nunez will ask for $2. This one could go to arbitration where the Twins would likely lose. If they do come to an agreement, it will be at least $1.6M.

 

Jepsen: I'd absolutely do 2/$11M. If not, the Twins will likely offer about $4.5M, and the Jepsen side will ask for closer to $6.0M. They'll settle around $5.4M. 

 

Fien: He'll ask for $2.2M (or so), and the Twins will offer him $1.5M (or so). They'll settle around that $1.8M or so. Could get up to $2M. That's fair. 

 

[Shane Wahl]

Nunez and Fien coming back is funny as hell. Like, what?

[clutterheart]

The Twins value Plouffe enough to move Sano to the OF so you would think they would offer Plouffe a long term deal.

[tobi0040]

Great article Jeremey and thanks for your input Seth.

 

I would absolutely extend Jepsen in the 2-11 or 2-12 range, I would ask for a 3rd year option but he would likely pass.  Given we have Perkins who has some health concerns and a bunch of young guys, it would be nice to have a little stability for the next few years.  If Perkins gets hurt again and several young guys don't perform, I don't have confidence this team will go out make an investment in the pen.

 

Worst case, a few of the young guys are lights out and Jepsen is your 4th best reliever.  That is a pretty good worst case.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd try for 2/11,12 for Jepsen. Escobar could get a 2 year deal. No one else on that list should, imo. 

[markos]

I can't see the logic of a one-year extension from Jepsen's perspective. He is guaranteed $5M-6M this season, and then he hits free agency. Given how hot the bullpen market has been, if he has any kind of decent season in 2016 he has a good chance at a 3 year deal for $15M+. That seems like a lot of money to potentially leave on the table in exchange for an extra $5M of security, particularly since he's made something like $7M+ already for his career. 

[tobi0040]

I can't see the logic of a one-year extension from Jepsen's perspective. He is guaranteed $5M-6M this season, and then he hits free agency. Given how hot the bullpen market has been, if he has any kind of decent season in 2016 he has a good chance at a 3 year deal for $15M+. That seems like a lot of money to potentially leave on the table in exchange for an extra $5M of security, particularly since he's made something like $7M+ already for his career. 

 

You never know.  He could have a year like he had in 2013 or 2011, or an injury and taking a two year deal would have been a great move for him.  A two year deal for $12M puts his career earnings around $20M and he is a FA at 34, which is not super old for a reliever.

Edited January 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I can't see the logic of a one-year extension from Jepsen's perspective. He is guaranteed $5M-6M this season, and then he hits free agency. Given how hot the bullpen market has been, if he has any kind of decent season in 2016 he has a good chance at a 3 year deal for $15M+. That seems like a lot of money to potentially leave on the table in exchange for an extra $5M of security, particularly since he's made something like $7M+ already for his career. 

 

I don't like the idea of signing a relief pitcher to an extension ever, really. (Unless it's the Perkins/super team-friendly deal.)

 

If I were to ink Jepsen to two years, I'd include a lot of incentives for games finished, which would pay him like a closer if he is the closer. 

[HitInAPinch]

Like Jepsen for 2 yrs. $11m.  He's now 31 and seems to be improving with age.  And I'd make the case that he should be co-closer with Perkins.  Escobar for 2 yrs. as well.  He's only 27.

Up in the air on Plouffe.  The ship has sailed on trading him, so 1yr and let's see what happens.

Eduardo Nunez:  can play several positions and can hit.  Re-yupper  

[REPETE]

As for Plouffe, does the final salary they settle on make a difference in his trade value?  ie, does his final # make it more likely, less likely, or no change on him being traded?

[tobi0040]

 

As for Plouffe, does the final salary they settle on make a difference in his trade value?  ie, does his final # make it more likely, less likely, or no change on him being traded?

 

the lower the number the better trade value he has.

[James]

 

Like Jepsen for 2 yrs. $11m.  He's now 31 and seems to be improving with age.  And I'd make the case that he should be co-closer with Perkins.  Escobar for 2 yrs. as well.  He's only 27.

Up in the air on Plouffe.  The ship has sailed on trading him, so 1yr and let's see what happens.

Eduardo Nunez:  can play several positions and can hit.  Re-yupper  

I don't think the ship has sailed on trading Plouffe.  It could be that a team that is interested in him might want to know exactly how much they'd have to pay him before pulling the trigger on a trade.  A team that would be interested in him should have a good idea, but they may want to get that number nailed down as he's likely to get a raise next year as well. 

[REPETE]

 

the lower the number the better trade value he has.

That part is pretty obvious.  I'm wondering if it's possible other teams were waiting to see what his final salary number was.  Or is $1M one way or the other not that significant for a team looking for an upgrade at 3B?

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I don't think the ship has sailed on trading Plouffe.  It could be that a team that is interested in him might want to know exactly how much they'd have to pay him before pulling the trigger on a trade.  A team that would be interested in him should have a good idea, but they may want to get that number nailed down as he's likely to get a raise next year as well. 

 

It might also be because the two biggest right-handed bats in free agency are still on the market and if teams are on the lookout for a right-handed bat, they're sniffing around those guys first. 

 

The other side of that coin is, "How many teams are in the market for a third baseman?" I don't think it's many.

[Loosey]

Does it bother anyone else that the Twins are willing to go to arbitration with a guy like Fien and pay him $2M.  But they won't go after a high-end reliever in the ballpark $6M. 

 

Instead they will sign Fien for $2M and probably another scrap heap veteran for $1-2M.  For $2-3M more they could have had a good reliever.

[tobi0040]

 

That part is pretty obvious.  I'm wondering if it's possible other teams were waiting to see what his final salary number was.  Or is $1M one way or the other not that significant for a team looking for an upgrade at 3B?

 

Well it is pretty clear that somehow the other team is also the Twins.

 

I kid, I kid.

[tobi0040]

 

Does it bother anyone else that the Twins are willing to go to arbitration with a guy like Fien and pay him $2M.  But they won't go after a high-end reliever in the ballpark $6M. 

 

Instead they will sign Fien for $2M and probably another scrap heap veteran for $1-2M.  For $2-3M more they could have had a good reliever.

 

Very much so.  We effectively did the same thing with Duensing.  Avoided arb and gave him $2.7M deal.  To Terry Ryan, terrible 1 year deals to players that are not good is better than an actual good player on a 2-3 year deal.

 

I have been trying to make this case for some time.  But it appears I am not doing a very good job, Or Terry Ryan doesn't read these comments. Those are the only two options because obviously I am right

Edited January 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[Loosey]

 

Very much so.  We effectively did the same thing with Duensing.  Avoided arb and gave him $2.7M deal.  To Terry Ryan, terrible 1 year deals to players that are not good is better than an actual good player on a 2-3 year deal.

 

I have been trying to make this case for some time.  But it appears I am not doing a very good job, Or Terry Ryan doesn't read these comments.

Let's print them all out and bring them to his office.  Maybe he doesn't have the internet or a computer yet. 

[tobi0040]

 

Let's print them all out and bring them to his office.  Maybe he doesn't have the internet or a computer yet. 

 

That is funny, because it is true. 

 

He maybe used to the font on his typewriter though.  This would be a big adjustment.

Edited January 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

 

Very much so.  We effectively did the same thing with Duensing.  Avoided arb and gave him $2.7M deal.  To Terry Ryan, terrible 1 year deals to players that are not good is better than an actual good player on a 2-3 year deal.

 

I have been trying to make this case for some time.  But it appears I am not doing a very good job, Or Terry Ryan doesn't read these comments. Those are the only two options because obviously I am right

 

I'm certain Terry Ryan doesn't (and shouldn't) spend a ton of time reading the comments here. Others might.

 

I prefer going with Fien than signing some guy for triple that who isn't guaranteed to be any better. We make Bastardo sound like this great pitcher... there's a reason he hasn't received the 3 year, $18 million contract he's said to want. He walks a ton. That's not 3 years, $15 million worth... If they sign him, cool, but let's not pretend he's some final answer or something. 

 

And, I more important, three years to a big question mark makes no sense if they believe in Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Rogers and Melotakis, who could all be better than Bastardo within the first year of a three year deal.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm certain Terry Ryan doesn't (and shouldn't) spend a ton of time reading the comments here. Others might.

 

I prefer going with Fien than signing some guy for triple that who isn't guaranteed to be any better. We make Bastardo sound like this great pitcher... there's a reason he hasn't received the 3 year, $18 million contract he's said to want. He walks a ton. That's not 3 years, $15 million worth... If they sign him, cool, but let's not pretend he's some final answer or something. 

 

And, I more important, three years to a big question mark makes no sense if they believe in Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Rogers and Melotakis, who could all be better than Bastardo within the first year of a three year deal.

 

How about one year and $7.5M for Benoit?  Give me him and a rookie over two Fein's or Duensing's. Benoit the last five years:

 

2010 - 60 IP, 1.34 ERA, 292 ERA+

2011 - 61 IP, 2.95 ERA, 141 ERA+

2012 - 71 IP, 3.68 ERA, 116 ERA+

2013 - 67 IP, 2.01 ERA, 207 ERA+

2014 - 54 IP, 1.49 ERA, 228 ERA+

2015 - 65 IP, 2.34 ERA, 156 ERA+

 

 

I just have never seen a GM consistently talk himself into locking up 10% or so of his annual payroll in players that are at best average because they are one year deals. 

 

We think outside the box like Benoit or sign a better pitcher on a 2-3 year deal.  Instead of dropping $6M a year on Pelfrey because it was a short deal, wouldn't it have been better to tack that $6M annually to Nolasco's $11M and buy one better pitcher?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[markos]

 

You never know.  He could have a year like he had in 2013 or 2011, or an injury and taking a two year deal would have been a great move for him.  A two year deal for $12M puts his career earnings around $20M and he is a FA at 34, which is not super old for a reliever.

This kind of cuts both ways, right? I mean, he could be great in 2016 but have a crappy or injured season in 2017, at which point he missed his best chance to strike it rich in free agency. And another counterpoint is that he needs to avoid major injury for two seasons rather than just one.

 

My general rule of thumb for players is "get to free agency as quickly as possible." But there is so much volatility with relievers that it might not be best for them. Your points are certainly valid, which makes me think that the expected overall return is probably pretty close regardless of the decision.

 

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

How about one year and $7.5M for Benoit?  Give me him and a rookie over two Fein's or Duensing's. Benoit the last five years:

 

2010 - 60 IP, 1.34 ERA, 292 ERA+

2011 - 61 IP, 2.95 ERA, 141 ERA+

2012 - 71 IP, 3.68 ERA, 116 ERA+

2013 - 67 IP, 2.01 ERA, 207 ERA+

2014 - 54 IP, 1.49 ERA, 228 ERA+

2015 - 65 IP, 2.34 ERA, 156 ERA+

 

 

I just have never seen a GM consistently talk himself into locking up 10% or so of his annual payroll in players that are at best average because they are one year deals. 

 

We think outside the box like Benoit or sign a better pitcher on a 2-3 year deal.  Instead of dropping $6M a year on Pelfrey because it was a short deal, wouldn't it have been better to tack that $6M annually to Nolasco's $11M and buy one better pitcher?

 

Benoit was traded to the Mariners IIRC.

[nicksaviking]

No thanks on that extension with Jepsen. If the Twins really like him come 2017 they can afford to pay him free agent money, it's unlikely he's so good that he'd get much more next off season than he'd demand right now, no need to do another Suzuki/Doumit blunder and extend him after what is likely his peak.

 

He's not a normal arb guy, he'll be 32 this year and he lost a full MPH on his fastball last year and two from his peak velocity. His curve and change aren't that good, he pretty much relies on that fastball. Let's not forget that he wasn't terribly effective with the Rays last year; 4.19/4.22 FIP/xFIP, his K/9 with the Rays was only 7.34 compared to 2014's 10.38 and his walk rate was rising. In fact his BB/9 with the small sample with the Twins was the lowest of his career, that sounds more like a blip than a trend for a 31-year-old.

 

He looks like a serious regression candidate.

 

Edit: I don't like the word regression. He looks like a prime candidate to begin to succumb to the natural effects of aging.

[tobi0040]

 

Benoit was traded to the Mariners IIRC.

 

Turns out $7.5M was a club option.  I found that from a free agent tracker and thought he signed a one year deal

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker

Edited January 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

 

Turns out $7.5M was a club option.  I found that from a free agent tracker and thought he signed a one year deal

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker

 

Yup. I would say that, especially with the hard-throwing depth that should be ready soon... I would rather sign Bastardo to a one year, $7.5 million deal than a 3 year, $15 million. Relievers tend to be so volatile. Few are as good and consistent as Benoit.