Article: Where Are We Now?

[Seth Stohs]

There is a lot of groaning among Twins fans right about now. The Winter Caravan gets started next week. Twins Fest is just three weeks away. The Twins haven’t made a big transaction since early November when they announced three deals in three days.

 

Last week, Nick wrote that there are still players out there that the Twins can go after. But, what if they are done? What does the Twins lineup look like, and what kind of depth do they have?Today, I’m going to go through the options, and very briefly (less than a tweet - which for now is still just 140 characters!) give their status on the Twins roster. Let’s start with the Hitters and then get to the Pitchers:

 

HITTERS

 

Catcher (2) - Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy - Suzuki has an option at 385 plate appearances. He won’t get that. Split time early, but I assume Murphy will get more playing time as the year progresses.

 

First Base (1) - Joe Mauer - Mauer hasn’t been as good the last two years at the plate as he had been. He’ll turn 33 early in April. Third year back after concussion. Still strong on-base skills.

 

Second Base (1) - Brian Dozier - Earned his All-Star spot with a great first half. Struggled mightily in the 2nd half. Defense is quality, even if the defensive metrics don’t show it.

 

Third Base (1) - Trevor Plouffe - We’re all somewhat surprised that he is still around, but Ryan wisely won’t just give him away. 20+ HR power and solid defense makes him worth keeping around in the middle of the lineup.

 

Shortstop (1) - Eduardo Escobar - One of the most difficult things in baseball is for a utility player to be seen as a starter. However, after playing really well once given shortstop duties the last two years, Escobar should be handed the job this year. Hopefully he runs with it.

 

Left Field (1) - Eddie Rosario - Had a nice showing as a rookie, surprising many. Put up double digits in pretty much every offensive category, as well as outfield assists. Strong arm. Needs to get on base more. He should stay in left to cover all that ground in Target Field.

 

Center Field (1) - Byron Buxton - I do believe that Buxton will be given every opportunity to start on Opening Day, but he isn’t going to just be (and shouldn’t be) handed the job. His defense is ready now. How long for the bat to adjust?

 

Right Field (1) - Miguel Sano - The young slugger is being moved to the outfield. Of course, it will be an interesting transition, but he’s talented and athletic enough to do it successfully. He showed great power in 2015, and if he can make more contact, he will become an All Star quickly.

Designated Hitter (1) - Byung Ho Park - Coming from Korea, no one can fairly project what Park can do in the short-term or long-term.. There is certain to be some adjustment needed. But the power potential is there. Can play first base too.

 

Bench (4) - Backup Catcher, Eduardo Nunez, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana - Santana, Nunez and Arcia are out of options. Nunez can play 3B, 2B, SS, LF and RF. Arcia can play LF, RF, DH and PH. Santana can play 2B and SS, but also is an option in CF if Buxton isn’t ready yet.

 

DEPTH - There are several guys at AAA that could provide depth. At 1B, Kennys Vargas could provide some thump. At 2B, James Beresford deserved a call-up in 2015. He returns. Buck Britton at third base. Veterans like Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson could be fifth outfielder types if needed. John Hicks and Juan Centeno have big league time as back-up catchers.

 

PROSPECT DEPTH - Jorge Polanco’s had several cups of coffee. His ability to hit is much closer to big-league ready than his middle infield defense. Adam Brett Walker and his mammoth power should spend most of the 2015 season in Rochester. Max Kepler could be ready very soon after his strong showing in AA last year. He'll start in AAA, but could be up before midseason.

 

PITCHERS

 

STARTING PITCHERS

 

Starter 1 - Ervin Santana - The veteran missed the first 80 games last year, and struggled a bit when he came back, but late, he showed he can be a reliable #3 type of starter.

 

Starter 2 - Phil Hughes - 2015 was injury-filled and just poor, but 2014 was tremendous. Likely, he’s somewhere in the middle, which again makes him a solid mid-rotation starter.

 

Starter 3 - Kyle Gibson - 2015 Twins Pitcher of the Year improved from 2014 to 2015. It’d be nice to see him take that next step in 2016 to being even more consistent. Can be a solid #3.

 

Starter 4 - Tyler Duffey - He was about my #15 prospect coming into 2015. Rough debut, but after that, he was arguably the Twins top pitcher over the final two months of the season. Killer curveball. He deserves to start the season in the rotation despite just ten big league starts.

 

Starter 5 - Tommy Milone - Because he doesn’t touch 90 often with his fastball, he is often overlooked, but he has been a quality #4-type of starter for several years. He needs pinpoint control, but most times out, he has it.

 

PROSPECT DEPTH - Everyone wants to know when JO Berrios will be ready. Soon, and very soon. As much as the Twins should play the service time game with him, their precedent is that they won’t. However, because there are five guys who do deserve a spot to start the season. However, it’s amazing how these things tend to work themselves out over time. Also in AAA will likely be lefties Taylor Rogers and Pat Dean.

 

BULLPEN

 

Closer (1) - Glen Perkins - An All-Star the last three years, Perkins really struggled in the second half of the 2015 season. he was also injured in the second half of the 2014 season. Hopefully that trend goes away in 2016.

 

Right-Handed Relievers (4) - Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin - Jepsen came to the Twins a year ago from the Rays at the deadline. He ended up doing a terrific job as the Twins closer. Trevor May will get an opportunity to start, but with the five mentioned above, plus Berrios, May will most likely be in the bullpen from the start of the season and has a chance to be dominant. Fien was dominant in 2013 and 2014 for the Twins, but 2015 was an injury-plagues season for the right-hander. If healthy, he provides some strong innings. Michael Tonkin is out of options, so he will have to remain with the team or be placed on waiver and could be lost. He should get a shot.

 

DEPTH - There is quite a bit of depth here. From inside the organization, former Rule 5 picks Ryan Pressly and JR Graham will likely be in AAA (though if the Twins were to start the season with 13 pitchers, Pressly has a good chance). Alex Meyer had ups and downs after his move to the bullpen last year. Brandon Kintzler has pitched a lot of games and a lot of innings over the last six seasons in Milwaukee. He was hurt last year, so he came in on a minor league contract. Of course, Ricky Nolasco factors into the pitching staff still. We just can't be sure how.

 

PROSPECT DEPTH - The names we heard a year ago as possible options for the 2nd half of 2015 are the same names that we’ll again here in 2016. Hard-throwing Nick Burdi, JT Chargois and Jake Reed could all get time in the big leagues in 2016. However, Minnesotan Brandon Peterson has been one of the better relievers in the organization the last two years and spent the 2nd half of 2015 in AA.

 

Left-Handed Relievers (2) - Fernando Abad, Ryan O’Rourke - This is the area where the Twins have been most vocal about looking this offseason. To this point, the top free agent southpaw signing has been Abad, who came in on a minor league deal. He was not good in 2015, but was good for a couple of years before that. O’Rourke was a nice story in mid-2015 when he was called up. He has always dominated left-handers, and did so again in the majors.

 

DEPTH - The Twins added a couple of lefty relievers who spent time in independent leagues in 2015. Buddy Boshers and Dan Runtzler both have big league time in the last few years, but were signed to minor league deals out of an indy league. Both are long-shots, but intriguing.

 

PROSPECT DEPTH - Though Taylor Rogers has started throughout his pro career, Rogers posted very good numbers against left-handers in AAA in 2015. At 25, he could be considered a potentially dominant lefty reliever because of a good fastball and a devastating slider. Logan Darnell had a strong final month in Rochester and was called up, though he got pneumonia and couldn’t pitch. Mason Melotakis missed the entire 2015 season after having Tommy John surgery late in 2014, he impressed in the Instructional League, hitting 97 with his fastball. The Twins could be cautious, but he if he proves himself healthy, he could be ready quickly.

 

So there you have it. My current projected roster, along with depth in the form of veteran minor leaguers or prospects who are on the cusp of a big league call up.

 

What does this show?

 

The Twins one need is a 6th or 7th inning reliever. That’s about it. Their lineup is pretty close to being set. Centerfield is really the only job that would be open in spring training. The bullpen is really solid in the late innings, but just needs another reliable arm. However, there are a lot of guys now in the organization who could thrive given an opportunity.

 

It helps me feel good about sticking to my opinion that the Twins shouldn’t dig on the fringes. When middle-of-the-road relievers are making $3-5 million, and they’re not as good as internal options, there’s no reason to sign those guys. Trading for a Will Smith or a Jake McGee, for the right price, makes sense.

As much as it is more exciting when there are transactions, they have to make sense and make the team better.

 

Click here to view the article

[sorney]

Did I miss something with Ricky?!?!  Did we let him go/trade him???  

Or was this just a big foreshadowing of a deal to come???

[Boom Boom]

Assuming the Twins don't (can't) trade Nolasco, he's in the rotation over Duffey.

 

Or maybe they tell Ricky that his ankle hurts and DL him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Did I miss something with Ricky?!?!  Did we let him go/trade him???  

Or was this just a big foreshadowing of a deal to come???

 

I don't know if that was completely forgetting about him, or some sort of unintentional foreshadowing... 

 

I suppose, based on present roster makeup, he would slot in with the right-handed relievers, and probably take a spot from Ryan O'Rourke or Fernando Abad. They'd have to go with just one lefty (beyond Perkins). 

[mikelink45]

Its okay to forget about him, unless there is a miracle somewhere waiting to drop in Nolasco's lap we all want to forget him and hope the Twins do to.  Better to lose the money than the games. 

[HitInAPinch]

Nice write-up, Seth.  I'm not in the hand-wringing crowd:  I think things will go well, with some adjustments along the way.  I believe in his 2nd year as manager, Molitor will be a little quicker with the hook in moving under-performing veterans for younger players.  That's not a knock on Mauer.  I'm in the small group that believes he'll improve this year.

 

 

[Dantes929]

I don't recall being all that excited about Nolasco when they signed him but no reason to write him off.   There was a reason he was signed and he has had injuries so I see no reason he can't be decent out of the pen.   I would hate for him to get a rotation spot over any of the guys named above.  All of those guys have earned their spot through performance for the Twins.  

[Thrylos]

Got to remember that Milone's and Fien's and Nunez' contracts (Plouffe's too, but that's another story) are not guaranteed, so the Twins can cut them during ST without any precautions.  I would be surprised if all 3 are with the team come April.

[Platoon]

Since you have 12 pitchers, I assume the backup catcher on the bench refers to either Suzuki or Ryan? And 12 pitchers? Hopefully the day of the third catcher and 13th pitcher are gone. But as one poster noted, NOLASCO! No settling of the Twins staff can take place until his roster situation is resolved. If he is here, it means 2 or 3 other pitchers slide somewhere, including all the way to Rochester.

[DocBauer]

Despite financial obligations, I would feel awful if Nolasco got a starting job over Duffy for any reason other than injury or implosion. Bullpen? He could maybe help. But $12M for a middle veteran reliever over 30 when there are other younger, cheaper options available who may be as good with some top options on the way? Once again, simply better off trading him and money for whatever you can and everyone moves on.

 

I think Runtzler is intriguing. Rogers could be very good in the pen. Outstanding if he can figure out how to figure out RH hitters better. Is it really possible Melotakis could be ready April or May? Hmmm...options...but I won't be surprised if the Twins still come up with another, more proven option for the pen before pitchers and catchers report.

 

Don't forget Kepler in the depth column.

[Vanimal46]

Don't forget Kepler in the depth column.

There was an interesting mailbag question in last week's Gleeman & The Geek podcast..

 

Over/under 150 plate appearances for Kepler this year?

 

I'm going with the under.

[TRex]

No mention of Kepler as OF depth? If they do find a trading partner for Plouffe, I would think Kepler has as good of a chance (25-35%) as Arcia of being in the OF on opening day.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't recall being all that excited about Nolasco when they signed him but no reason to write him off.   There was a reason he was signed and he has had injuries so I see no reason he can't be decent out of the pen.   I would hate for him to get a rotation spot over any of the guys named above.  All of those guys have earned their spot through performance for the Twins.  

 

I actually have no problem with Nolasco. I liked the signing then. He had always been real solid and the Twins needed 'solid' starting pitching. He should/could be a #3. I don't completely give up on him... I just don't think he should just get a starting job over any of the five I mentioned, or Berrios. Right or wrong.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Since you have 12 pitchers, I assume the backup catcher on the bench refers to either Suzuki or Ryan? And 12 pitchers? Hopefully the day of the third catcher and 13th pitcher are gone. But as one poster noted, NOLASCO! No settling of the Twins staff can take place until his roster situation is resolved. If he is here, it means 2 or 3 other pitchers slide somewhere, including all the way to Rochester.

 

Yeah, the backup catcher would be Ryan or Suzuki depending on the day. 

 

They have started most seasons with 12 pitchers, then it seems like something happens and they go to 13. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Don't forget Kepler in the depth column.

 

For some reason yesterday, I completely lost my Microsoft Office package at home. So I don't know what happened, but my roster projections and everything are gone. They're there, but I can't open them. So, very frustrating. So, I wrote the above by memory, so now surprising I missed a few... 

 

I just went in and added Nolasco and Kepler. Thank you!

[rghrbek]

Fien was dominant in 2014?   Please elaborate.

[Halsey Hall]

I'd give Kepler an even chance to start in center along with Buxton.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd give Kepler an even chance to start in center along with Buxton.

 

Sub "Kepler" with "Rosario" and I think that you are about right.  Kepler is not a centerfielder any more (but the Twins used Parmelee and Cuddyer at CF...)

[KirbyDaisy]

As far as a left handed 7th or 8th inning reliever goes, my preference would be Perkins.  I doubt that would happen but to me it makes sense.  Jepson or May would then be the closer.  This would very nicely balance out the bullpen.

[savvyspy]

What does the lineup look like when Sano in right predictably blows up in the teams face? Does he go back to 3rd? 1st? DH? 

 

I think this is the biggest issue facing the lineup. If Santana, Buxton, and Rosario are your OF, where do they play Sano?

 

There is absolutely no evidence Sano, at his size and not having played the position, will be anything but a complete liability in the outfield. That isn't going to work for an entire season.

 

The lineup should be pretty decent if they figure out where to put everyone.

 

Pitching is a completely different story........

[Rosterman]

The only way the Twins would really really add pieces would be if they played Billy Beane ball and started trading massive amounts of current pieces for different pieces. 

 

But to do so, people have to want anything that you have to offer. The guys you want to keep, other teams want (Sano, Buxton, Berrios).

 

But so many others could be traded to strengthen, say, catcher, corner outfield, bullpen. Who says you can't move Santana or Gibson or Hughes. If you believe in bullpen prospects, take a buyer for Perkins. Will anyone take Suzuki off your hands? Would moving Plouffe really solve problems (he will be expensive in arbitration in 2017). 

 

Otherwise, we can pretty much write in the names of the 25-man roster with Santana/Nunez/Arcia getting jobs because of being out-of-option. The biggest question is Buxton, does he start in the minors? Then who plays centerfield? And if ANY of these bullpen minor league signings pan out, what current 40-man roster names do we say goodbye!

 

 

[David HK]

Well, at least we got another BB Barbarosa (B. Boshers) to replace the cat from last year. (B. Boyer).  Whoopee.

[stringer bell]

Despite having options, I think Pressly makes the club out of ST if healthy. He has had much more success than Tonkin. I actually hope they both make it, but I'm guessing at least one starter is temporarily placed in the bullpen.

[DocBauer]

There was an interesting mailbag question in last week's Gleeman & The Geek podcast..

Over/under 150 plate appearances for Kepler this year?

I'm going with the under.

 

I feel Molitor will be more aggressive than Gardy ever was...as he was with Rosario last year. And yet, I feel like the couple weeks Kepler spent with the parent club to close the year he was treated with kid gloves. Was this accidental or a reflection of his long season? Perhaps. If Molly has the same "feel" he had for Rosario last season, then I'd bet the over. And I SOOO want the over!

 

I'm sorry, but even though I think Sano could be the next Dave Parker or Darryl Strawberry...big men who play the OF...I remain unconvinced this is his future. He will play 3B, possibly/eventually 1B, instead of the OF, eventually if not sooner, based on experienxe, skill set, long term viability, as well as depth available. IMO

[Jham]

 

Despite financial obligations, I would feel awful if Nolasco got a starting job over Duffy for any reason other than injury or implosion. Bullpen? He could maybe help. But $12M for a middle veteran reliever over 30 when there are other younger, cheaper options available who may be as good with some top options on the way? Once again, simply better off trading him and money for whatever you can and everyone moves on.

I think Runtzler is intriguing. Rogers could be very good in the pen. Outstanding if he can figure out how to figure out RH hitters better. Is it really possible Melotakis could be ready April or May? Hmmm...options...but I won't be surprised if the Twins still come up with another, more proven option for the pen before pitchers and catchers report.

Don't forget Kepler in the depth column.

 

The younger options aren't cheaper than Nolasco.  They're more expensive.  Obviously, you have to pay Nolasco either way.  Personally, I'm hoping Nolasco has a bounce back year the way Pelfrey did last year.  That would give the team a whole lot of options.  

 

[DocBauer]

The younger options aren't cheaper than Nolasco.  They're more expensive.  Obviously, you have to pay Nolasco either way.  Personally, I'm hoping Nolasco has a bounce back year the way Pelfrey did last year.  That would give the team a whole lot of options.

 

Sorry but....huh?

 

Nolasco is owed $12M this season whether he is on the Twins or not, starting or in the pen. All other bullpen options, other than Perkins, are making far less. And in most cases, Tonkin, Pressly, etc, the cost is right around league minimum.

[old nurse]

 

The younger options aren't cheaper than Nolasco.  They're more expensive.  Obviously, you have to pay Nolasco either way.  Personally, I'm hoping Nolasco has a bounce back year the way Pelfrey did last year.  That would give the team a whole lot of options.  

The likelihood of Nolasco getting cut and thus a sunk cost is small. Cutting Nolasco for a cheaper player would cost more than the other player's salary.  Spring training is a ways away. Given the number of quality unsigned free agents out there, the demand for trades is not there. The mediocre free agent is cheaper than Nolasco. When that dries up, teams may start sniffing at Nolasco

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion.

 

The Twins have two things to do and they haven't done them yet. 

 

CF -- I love Buxton and I hope that Buxton will be great someday. Based on last year... he has some things to learn first. 

 

If Buxton is starting in CF on opening day. It might work but even if it works. It'll show me that they haven't learned a valuable lesson that should have been learned after multiple years of giving Hicks the starting job with no safety net. A decent place holding CF should have been acquired. 

 

Bullpen -- We have enough starting pitching options but all of our starting pitching options are not decent enough to believe that the bullpen isn't going to be leaned on hard. The Twins needed a LH Pen piece and signing Abad isn't going to cut it. I understand that we have hard throwing farm hands and I understand the price for pen has gone up. It doesn't matter right now... The Twins need to pay the price. 

 

2 Needs unmet thus far. Doesn't mean we can't win it but it does mean that the needs have been unmet thus far. 

[Platoon]

I wonder if the Twins view Santana as the Buxton Backup! We may or may not agree, but it's quite possible. Buxtons history is slow starts at every level, and there is no doubt his MLB debut fit that profile. His case is complicated. The "Sano Experiment" will have a better chance of working with elite coverage from CF. he provides that. And he won't learn to hit ML pitching in Rochester. Those things beg for his inclusion going north. His lack of success at the plate in late summer, and the possibility of saving service time??, makes him a candidate for Rochester. Myself? I bring him up, let him learn this level. He needs to see ML pitching, he cuts Sanos coverage area by 15 ft, and if he can't handle the struggle of the learning curve, frankly he is not going to play at the level everyone projects. Self confidence is the 6th tool. Regardless of fan hope, and FO hype, the Twins are a work in progress. The auditioning of Park at DH, Sano in RF, and the apparent reliance on unproven prospects in the BP confirm that. They might yet contend, but it won't be because they are a solid proven entity when ST camp breaks!

[laloesch]

 

The younger options aren't cheaper than Nolasco.  They're more expensive.  Obviously, you have to pay Nolasco either way.  Personally, I'm hoping Nolasco has a bounce back year the way Pelfrey did last year.  That would give the team a whole lot of options.  

 

Nolasco doesn't want to be here.  He's made that abundantly clear.  He hates Minnesota and the Twins and wants to return to California.  He's basically said so without saying so via twitter.  

 

Can't the Twins outright him to AAA?  He then has the right to either refuse the assignment and elect to become a free agent and forfeit his remaining contract or accept the assignment and stay with the Twins while they continue to pay him his remanding salary?  Is that correct?

 

Seems like both parties could choose to go their separate ways if they both are unhappy with this situation.  Sure Ricky might be holding out for the remainder of his contract, but sheesh he holds all the cards.  If your that unhappy GO!  In no way shape or form should he be taking starts away from Duffey, May and eventually Berrios.