Article: 2016 Twins Roster Projections: The First Basemen

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday, I began posting my thoughts on the 2016 Twins Roster Projections by considering the catchers in the Twins organization. Today, we move from behind the plate to first base. The Twins first baseman is set through the 2018 season, and with Byung Ho Park signed through 2019 (with an option for 2020), it’s possible the Twins have their first baseman set for the next five years.If anything goes off of plan, who are some of the options to fill in at first base in the coming years, and are there any prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

 

MAJOR LEAGUES

 

Joe Mauer enters his third season as the Twins first baseman. The last two years have been frustrating for the St. Paul native. In his first ten seasons, Mauer caught. He was a six-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger, a three-time Gold Glove winner, a three-time batting champ and the 2009 MVP. In those ten years, he combined to hit .323/.405/.468 (.873), an OPS 35% better than the average player. His last two seasons, he hit a combined .270/.348/.376 (.715), the OPS is just 1% better than average. Defensively, most of his metric would call him an average or slightly better than average first baseman.

 

Byung Ho Park will be the primary DH, though he was a Gold Glove winner at first base in the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). He will likely get some time at first base as well. We have learned that the Gold Glove in Korea is more of an offensive award. The Twins brought Park in for his bat. In the last two years, he has hit a combined 105 homers and driven in 270 runs. Over his last four seasons in the KBO, his OPS were .954, 1.039, 1.119, and 1.150. He will turn 30 in May. There is likely to be a learning curve early in his season.

 

MINOR LEAGUES

 

Rochester Red Wings

 

Kennys Vargas is kind of the odd man out with the signing of Park. He is a first baseman and a DH. Vargas came up from AA on August 1^st of 2014 and hit ten doubles and nine homers in 53 games, mostly as the Twins cleanup hitter and DH. 2015 was a frustrating season for the slugger. He began the season in the big leagues. He was sent down to AA. He came back up, but at the end of June, he was sent back to AA, and Miguel Sano was called up. Vargas played well the rest of the way and moved to AAA and came back to the Twins in September. In 58 total games, he hit .240/.277/.349 (.626) with four doubles and five homers. There were rumors about him being sold to Korea, but that would make little sense. He’s still just 25 years old and has an option year remaining. With injury possibilities, and the possibility of Park needing a little time in the minor leagues, having depth will be important. Vargas can also be an intimidating bench bat, due to his size.

 

Reynaldo Rodriguez is 29 years old and 2016 will mark his 11^th professional season. After spending time in the Red Sox and Yankees, this will be his fourth in the organization. It will be the first time he has an invitation to big league spring training. In Rochester in 2015, he hit .255/.307/.446 (.753) with 34 doubles, 16 homers and 80 RBI.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Dalton Hicks was the Twins 17^th round pick in 2012 out of Central Florida. He was in AA with the Lookouts in 2015. In fact, he was our choice for Hitter of the Month in April. However, he was hurt most of the rest of the season. He spent it in Ft. Myers rehabbing. He did return to the Lookouts late in the season. He will be 26 years old at the start of the 2016 season. In 2013, he led minor league baseball in RBI with 110 (1 more than teammate Adam Brett Walker). At 6-5 and nearly 250 pounds, Hicks has good power.

 

Bryan Haar was the Twins 34^th round pick in 2012 out of the University of San Diego where he played third base before moving to first base to accommodate a third baseman named Kris Bryant. At 6-3 and 220 pounds, Haar is a good athlete with some pop in his bat. He played in just 68 games in Ft. Myers in 2015, largely due to injury.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Trey Vavra played less than two months of the 2015 season, but he was very good with the Kernels. In fact, when he was hurt in late May, he was leading (or top three) the organization in most offensive categories. However, he suffered an ankle injury that later was determined to be a broken bone in his foot. He had surgery and missed the rest of the season. He has spent this offseason playing for the Melbourne Aces in the ABL, alongside his brother Tanner and playing for his father, Joe. It was an opportunity for him to make up some at bats. Assuming he gets to spring training and 100%, he should be pushed to Ft. Myers.

 

Minnesotan Blake Schmit will also likely be given an opportunity to start the year with the Miracle. A late-round pick in 2014 out of Maryland, Schmit began 2013 in EST. He moved up to Cedar Rapids, but he was hit in the face with a pitch and missed a couple of months. He returned in a utility role for the Miracle. He can play all four infield spots.

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Zander Wiel will turn 23 next week. He played for three years at Vanderbilt. Last year, he hit .316/.406/.571 (.977) with 19 doubles and 15 homers. The Twins took him in the 12^th round and he signed following the College World Series. Wiel is a very good athlete, tall and strong. After signing, he played in just a couple of games before being hit in the hand with a pitch. He missed a month. He is an advanced hitter and should jump straight to Cedar Rapids.

 

Amaurys Minier was the Twins big international signing in 2012. He signed for about $1.5 million. He spent 2013 and 2014 in the GCL and improved his OPS from .707 to .925. He began 2015 in the GCL, but just two games before moving up to Elizabethton. The only reason for that is because he was again hurt late in spring training and rehabbed through extended spring training. He hit just .194/.279/.280 (.559) with nine doubles and two homers in E-Town. Don’t be surprised if he starts in EST again, but he should spend time in Cedar Rapids.

 

Extended Spring Training

 

In July of 2013, the Twins big international signing was outfielder/first baseman Lewin Diaz. His body type is often compared to David Ortiz and Ryan Howard, so first base was always the place he would most likely play. He spent 2014 in the Dominican Summer League. He came to the States in 2015. He played in 33 games for the GCL and hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles and a homer. He moved up to Elizabethton for the final 14 games and hit just .167 but hit three home runs. Power will be his game. He is most likely to spend the year in Elizabethton.

 

Kolton Kendrick was the Twins eighth round pick in 2015 out of high school. He was regarded as the most powerful high school bat in the draft, compared to the likes of Mark McGwire and Josh Hamilton by Baseball America. He’ll strike out a bit, and may not hit for real high average, but his power potential is great. Unfortunately, after signing, he came down with mono and played just 24 games. He hit .200/.371/.271 (.642) with three doubles and a triple while regaining strength. He will go to extended spring training and could go either to Elizabethton or stay in the GCL.

 

SUMMARY

 

Joe Mauer is the first baseman. Byung Ho Park is the designated hitter. They can flip-flop once or twice a week as needed. If either gets hurt, Kennys Vargas is just Rochester away.

 

In the lower levels, there is a lot of big power potential. Hopefully Dalton Hicks and Trey Vavra can return to their early 2015, pre-injury forms. Zander Wiel has power potential. Amaurys Minier, Lewin Diaz and Kolton Kendrick are all very raw, but have very big power potential.

 

First Base Prospect Rankings:

• Byung Ho Park,
• Lewin Diaz
• Amaurys Minier
• Kolton Kendrick
• Trey Vavra

 

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[laloesch]

I find it frustrating that the Twins seemingly have given up on Vargas.  Sure he may be 25 and only one option left, but man the guy can club the ball. 

[HitInAPinch]

Twinkie Town posted an article on Vargas yesterday:

 

http://www.twinkietown.com/2016/1/6/10721496/what-happens-to-kennys-vargas

 

Twins 1st-DH rotation could easily expand to Sano and Arcia to keep more consistent AB's for everyone.

 

I'd still really like to see Vargas get a shot at MLB.....

[Kwak]

Reading this article makes it clear why the Twins were aggressive in bidding for Park--the cupboard is bare.  I do believe that Sano should be added to this list due to the high probability that he may become the regular 1B.

[mikelink45]

Sano - Arcia - Vargas - Park seems like a full cupboard to me, if only we could move that big box of Sugar Coated Minnesotan out of the way.

[AKTwins]

What about palka, the guy we got for hermann. I thought he was a 1st baseman or is he a corner OF?

[Seth Stohs]

 

What about palka, the guy we got for hermann. I thought he was a 1st baseman or is he a corner OF?

 

He should probably have been included here. I included him with the corner outfielders, but he did play quite a bit of first base. He'll be in Chattanooga, so he'll be in that mix.

[Kwak]

 

Sano - Arcia - Vargas - Park seems like a full cupboard to me, if only we could move that big box of Sugar Coated Minnesotan out of the way.

Sano wasn't mentioned (I did that), Vargas and Arcia don't hit as well as the "Cereal Box", and Park was the guy who they had to obtain--ergo, the point of the post!.

[birddog]

Always enjoy your articles, Seth, knowing the amount of time you spend on research. You'd like to expect 40+ HRs from your 1B/DH combo. I would be happy with 25 from Park, but in your mind, Seth, what is the best season realistically we could see from Mauer? Can we ever expect 15+ HRs from him? And do you expect he will be rested more often if he continues his mediocrity?

[DocBauer]

Agree Vargas is getting the short end here. But for most of 2015 he flat out didn't perform. The Twins did the right thing in getting Park, despite any potential road blocks. It is NEVER a bad thing to have too much talent,or too much depth. (What you do, or don't do, with that depth is anot entirely different issue)

 

I do not think Vargas is done by any means. Unless there is an injury or big disappointment/surprise yet to come, I see him getting a full year at AAA and putting up the best season in his career. It will be a good thing if come the last half of the season we are trying to figure out how to get him in to the lineup with Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe, Arcia and probably Kepler.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Bench Mauer - it will improve the club overall and open the door for a young guy to prove his worth.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Always enjoy your articles, Seth, knowing the amount of time you spend on research. You'd like to expect 40+ HRs from your 1B/DH combo. I would be happy with 25 from Park, but in your mind, Seth, what is the best season realistically we could see from Mauer? Can we ever expect 15+ HRs from him? And do you expect he will be rested more often if he continues his mediocrity?

 

Realistic season from Mauer is probably .300/.375/.450 (.825) with 40 doubles and 12-15 HR. He'll continue to likely be rested more because of his age and legs. 

 

More likely... .280/.355/.415 (.770) with 35 doubles and 10 homers. 

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Bench Mauer - it will improve the club overall and open the door for a young guy to prove his worth.

 

Agree Vargas is getting the short end here. But for most of 2015 he flat out didn't perform. The Twins did the right thing in getting Park, despite any potential road blocks. It is NEVER a bad thing to have too much talent,or too much depth. (What you do, or don't do, with that depth is anot entirely different issue)

I do not think Vargas is done by any means. Unless there is an injury or big disappointment/surprise yet to come, I see him getting a full year at AAA and putting up the best season in his career. It will be a good thing if come the last half of the season we are trying to figure out how to get him in to the lineup with Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe, Arcia and probably Kepler.

 

Vargas was never much of a prospect for a reason - several reasons - offensively or defensively. He can get a hold of one at times. We may have seen his peak in that final two months of 2014. But just 25, no reason to just drop him. Good depth.

[Vanimal46]

Seth, I noticed that a majority of the players you featured are lower round players (8th round being the highest I see) and a couple of international signings for a decent amount of change $1.5 million. Is that a trend with other teams that they don't invest high draft picks on 1st baseman types?

[jharaldson]

 

Joe Mauer enters his third season as the Twins first baseman. The last two years have been frustrating for the St. Paul native. In his first ten seasons, Mauer caught. He was a six-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger, a three-time Gold Glove winner, a three-time batting champ and the 2009 MVP. In those ten years, he combined to hit .323/.405/.468 (.873), an OPS 35% better than the average player. His last two seasons, he hit a combined .270/.348/.376 (.715), the OPS is just 1% better than average. Defensively, most of his metric would call him an average or slightly better than average first baseman.

 

 

Realistic season from Mauer is probably .300/.375/.450 (.825) with 40 doubles and 12-15 HR. He'll continue to likely be rested more because of his age and legs. 

 

More likely... .280/.355/.415 (.770) with 35 doubles and 10 homers. 

 

I guess I object to these descriptions in a couple of ways.

 

1. Comp to MLB Hitters - The OPS you present is the league average hitter from Fangraphs.  It includes pitchers and players from other light hitting positions.  His peers are other 1B and the average OPS for 1B in 2015 was .780 so he was well below average.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

2.  Projections - I just can't see how after 2 straight seasons of .732 and .718 OPS we can say a realistic season for Joe is a .825 OPS.  IMO realistic is .730-.740 and optimistic is .770-.780.

[Madre Dos]

I've got to show mi hijos grandes some love.   Kennys and Miguel are both great guys and I think (remember who this is coming from) very talented baseball players.  Kennys has been working very hard between the Puerto Rican WInter League and his personal conditioning and I know Miguel is continuing to improve his work ethic.  Keep Miguel at 3rd, I've never seen him in the OF and hopefully Kennys can move up when Mauer FINALLY retires.

[Thrylos]

 

Agree Vargas is getting the short end here. But for most of 2015 he flat out didn't perform.

 

.283/.414/.496 between Chattanooga and Rochester  and .366/.395/.561 in May in the Majors is not underperforming.  He underperformed in April and the part of June he was in the Majors. 

 

But he did perform the rest of the season.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 hopefully Kennys can move up when Mauer FINALLY retires.

 

Unfortunately he will be out of options before Mauer retires, so he either has to move up in 2017 or move to another team.

I am with you.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I guess I object to these descriptions in a couple of ways.

 

1. Comp to MLB Hitters - The OPS you present is the league average hitter from Fangraphs.  It includes pitchers and players from other light hitting positions.  His peers are other 1B and the average OPS for 1B in 2015 was .780 so he was well below average.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

2.  Projections - I just can't see how after 2 straight seasons of .732 and .718 OPS we can say a realistic season for Joe is a .825 OPS.  IMO realistic is .730-.740 and optimistic is .770-.780.

 

Morneau won a batting title in his 3rd year back from a concussion. That's where Mauer will be in 2016, third season. 

 

And, why object to numbers? They're just numbers.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, I noticed that a majority of the players you featured are lower round players (8th round being the highest I see) and a couple of international signings for a decent amount of change $1.5 million. Is that a trend with other teams that they don't invest high draft picks on 1st baseman types?

 

I think they've had such a focus on pitching in the last 2-3 drafts. Also, They have Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe and probably others who can play 1B. I'd say, unless you get a great, great hitter, might as well wait. Get the athletes, hope a couple can stick at SS or CF and move the rest around. 

[BoomBoom]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2012-preseason-all-america-teams-chart-12961/

 

JUST SAYING.............................  - By Jim Callis too

[laloesch]

 

Bench Mauer - it will improve the club overall and open the door for a young guy to prove his worth.

 

 

It will never ever ever ever everevevever happen while he remains a twin. 

[laloesch]

 

Agree Vargas is getting the short end here. But for most of 2015 he flat out didn't perform. The Twins did the right thing in getting Park, despite any potential road blocks. It is NEVER a bad thing to have too much talent,or too much depth. (What you do, or don't do, with that depth is anot entirely different issue)

I do not think Vargas is done by any means. Unless there is an injury or big disappointment/surprise yet to come, I see him getting a full year at AAA and putting up the best season in his career. It will be a good thing if come the last half of the season we are trying to figure out how to get him in to the lineup with Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe, Arcia and probably Kepler.

 

 

Agreed, but neither did Morneau or Cuddyer when they were first called up.  Sometimes it takes time for these guys to adjust.  I think it would be a shame to let him walk away unless they see something fundamentally wrong with his game.

[Linus]

Agreed, but neither did Morneau or Cuddyer when they were first called up. Sometimes it takes time for these guys to adjust. I think it would be a shame to let him walk away unless they see something fundamentally wrong with his game.

He's not going anywhere as he has an option left. Don't worry about it if he rakes in Rochester he'll get his chance.

[dxpavelka]

Why rank Lewin Diaz as the # 2 overall prospect and not even mention him in the article?

[TRex]

 

Why rank Lewin Diaz as the # 2 overall prospect and not even mention him in the article?

Maybe you missed it... he was the first one listed under 'Extended Spring Training', with this description:

 

In July of 2013, the Twins big international signing was outfielder/first baseman Lewin Diaz. His body type is often compared to David Ortiz and Ryan Howard, so first base was always the place he would most likely play. He spent 2014 in the Dominican Summer League. He came to the States in 2015. He played in 33 games for the GCL and hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles and a homer. He moved up to Elizabethton for the final 14 games and hit just .167 but hit three home runs. Power will be his game. He is most likely to spend the year in Elizabethton.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2012-preseason-all-america-teams-chart-12961/

 

JUST SAYING.............................  - By Jim Callis too

 

I remember