Article: What's Left On The Market?

[Nick Nelson]

The offseason started off with a bang for the Minnesota Twins, whose winning bid for Korean star Byung Ho Park was announced just a week after the conclusion of the World Series. That news was followed a couple days later by the Aaron Hicks-for-John Ryan Murphy trade, but since then, it's been an awfully quiet couple of months for Terry Ryan and the front office.

 

Most conspicuously, the Twins have done nothing to address their questionable bullpen, outside of tendering a contract to Casey Fien and doling out a handful of minor-league contracts.

 

If the chilly Hot Stove season has got you down, keep in mind that we still have more than six weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report, and as you'll see below, there are numerous options still available at areas of need for the Twins.

Where Things Stand

We still won't know for a few more weeks what the exact salary figures will look like for Minnesota's arbitration-eligible players, but based on our estimates the current projected payroll stands at around $108 million. If you add the entirety of Byung Ho Park's posting fee, that number jumps to about $120 million.

 

The Twins entered the 2015 season with a payroll of $108.3 million, so depending on how you look at it, they presently stand either right around, or slightly ahead of, last year's benchmark. Either way, there's little reason to believe that Ryan does not have flexibility to add at this point, especially with spending continually rising across the league.

 

From everything we've heard, it sounds like his primary reluctance in the free agent arena has not been a strict matter of dollars, but rather giving out long-term commitments that could potentially clog the system's internal pipeline.

 

With the holiday lull coming to an end, we will see a fresh wave of activity across baseball over the coming weeks, in terms of signings and trades. Will the Twins take part in the action? Who might they be interested in that is still out there?

 

Free Agent Relievers

Many of the big names have come off the market over the past couple months, but numerous intriguing options remain.

 

The biggest fish left in the sea is probably Tyler Clippard, the 30-year-old right-hander with a very consistent track record that includes multiple stints as a closer. He seems likely to land a multi-year deal, which might rule him out for the Twins, who are more urgently seeking a left-hander anyway.

 

In that department, one name clearly stands out. Antonio Bastardo was the No. 1 free agent lefty reliever on the market in the Offseason Handbookand would be a tremendously impactful addition for the Twins bullpen, but he is said to be seeking a contract similar to the three-year, $18 million deal signed by Tony Sipp last month. It's difficult to envision Ryan wading into those waters, especially given the southpaw's frequent struggles with control. ESPN's Buster Olney reported this week that the Orioles and Mets have been in talks with Bastardo, who hasn't been publicly tied to the Twins.

 

With Ryan evidently targeting short-term deals – most likely one-year commitments – a veteran hurler in the second tier is going to be more in his wheelhouse. There are a lot of names that fit that category: Matt Thornton, Neal Cotts, Franklin Morales, Manny Parra, Randy Choate. These aren't the kinds of arms that will dramatically upgrade the relief corps, but they would certainly add a bit more assurance to the unit and wouldn't inhibit internal options long-term. I find it extremely likely that the Twins will end up adding one of the pitchers in that group, on something like a one-year, $3 million contract.

 

Injury Gamble?

Ryan has a history of success with reclamation projects, with one example being Jared Burton, who came to the team on a minor-league contract after battling shoulder problems and reemerged as a quality setup man in Minnesota.

 

Could Sean Marshall follow a similar path?

 

From 2010 through 2012, Marshall was one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, posting a 2.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 K/9 in 231 trips to the mound for the Reds and Cubs. Since the start of the 2013 season, however, he has totalled only 31 appearances, and he didn't pitch at all in 2015. Two shoulder operations and a litany of setbacks have cast serious doubt on his future.

 

Marshall told the Cincinnati Enquirer in September that he wants to keep playing and was toying with a new arm angle. He's obviously a long shot, but if he looks good in his throwing sessions, he would be a nice no-risk gamble with some upside much like Fernando Abad. If he can return anywhere close to his previous form, he'd be a big pick-up.

 

Storen Still Standing

I've been beating the Drew Storen drum since mid-September, at which point it was already apparent that the Nationals would be shopping the righty reliever, and that he might be available at a discount given his tumultuous second half.

 

Storen remains a National here in early January, but Jon Morosi of FOX Sports wrote this week that Washington is still trying to trade him. At this point in the offseason, one has to imagine that the asking price has dropped a bit.

 

He's still only 27, he has high-end ability, and he has only one year of team control remaining. He isn't left-handed, obviously, but would be a transformative acquisition for the bullpen in 2016. Can Ryan pull together a package that will get it done without hampering the big picture?

 

What About The Outfield?

The search continues for an additional outfielder. Right now the names in that mix are Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia and Danny Santana. (Max Kepler could be added to that list, but I can't see him being a factor until midseason at least.)

 

That's a group with little built-up equity that could use some established veteran backing. Among the fourth outfielder types who could fill a Shane Robinson role are Johnny Gomes, Matt Joyce, Skip Schumaker, Chris Denorfia, David Lough and others. The challenge is in finding a player who could hold his own as a regular over an extended period but would not necessarily have an expectation of being a starter for the entire season.

 

Surely the Twins' hope is to have some combination of the aforementioned youngsters firmly entrenched by September.

 

Span Reunion?

We'll round out the outfield discussion with a familiar face. Denard Span remains mired in free agency despite very strong results over the last two years (.301/.358/.421), because he's coming off September hip surgery. The other day Span posted the following tweet, which seems to suggest that he's recovering pretty well:

 

 

The fact that the 31-year-old outfielder is campaigning on his own behalf here in January may indicate that he's not finding the kind of reception he's hoping for on the market. If he's open to taking a one-year deal to bolster his value, that might present an advantageous opportunity for the Twins. Obviously he has familiarity here, and his offensive skill set would be welcomed given the current lack of a prototypical leadoff type.

 

But it brings us back to the playing time equation. Can the Twins promise Span the role he wants without putting themselves in position to block a younger player who is ready to step in?

 

Who would you like to see the team pursue?

 

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[Otwins]

I agree with the bullpen additions. I think they will add one or two guys in the 1 year $3 million range. I really hope they do not add an outfielder.  It is time to play Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Arcia and see what you have at the major league level. The prospects need to turn into production. Don't need a veteran outfielder and then not being able to have a spot for Arcia. Even though I think Arcia really needs to improve in the field. I believe he will hit this year.

[USAFChief]

This article is depressing. The umpteenth offseason in a row of trying to fill holes with stuff other teams don't want.

[Linus]

I don't know Chief if you have to give a multi year contract who will block a valued prospect kind of ties your hands, no?

[markos]

 

From everything we've heard, it sounds like his primary reluctance in the free agent arena has not been a strict matter of dollars, but rather giving out long-term commitments that could potentially clog the system's internal pipeline.

This is a lame excuse. The front office certainly didn't care that it might "potentially clog the system's internal pipeline" when it signed/re-signed/extended mid-level (or worse) starting pitchers the past two off-seasons or a DH this off-season. Personally, I'm not a proponent of spending big money on a reliever, but any concerns about clogging the internal bullpen pipeline seem absolutely ridiculous to me. The bullpen is the part of the roster with the most flexibility and the most year-to-year variability. There is always someone replaceable in the bullpen - it is the last place I would worry about potentially blocking some prospect that is more than a year away. Also, the money commitment for relievers is so low (even with multi-year deals) that cutting someone in year 2 or 3 of a deal shouldn't be any significant financial setback to the team.

[HitInAPinch]

I guess it all depends on where you think the Twins are at.  Personally, I wouldn't want to hold up  progress waiting for a prospect to be more than a prospect.  Great players force their way into a lineup. 

 

I'd go "in" more on the bullpen.  I believe Perkins is wearing out fast.  Since they are still on the market, I don't believe a combo of Clippard and Bastardo would be cost prohibitive.  I'd also like to hear what the current offers for Storen is.  Like him as a paring for now and replacement of Perkins. 

 

In another article, people are bashing the crap outta Buxton, so I'll leave him alone.  I'll just say this:  he's still a prospect.  Spring Training may sort this out, but I think there's enough OF talent on the roster right now that needs to be vetted before going after a 4th OF type.  There's plenty of room for rotation into 1st or DH.

[gunnarthor]

I think we're worrying a bit too much about the pen.  Even if they don't grab anyone, they have some nice parts.  May, Perkins and Jepsen are solid.  Chargois, Meyer and Burdi (not on the 40 man) could be big arms.  They have a bit of a clog in the rotation so someone from the Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Milone, Nolasco, Duffey group will probably be in the pen - and maybe two if Berrios makes the team.  I actually like Pressly.  Sure, they could use another lefty and a guy like Clippard or Storen would make the pen a lot better.  But they have a good backend already.

 

As to Span, I'd be ok with him.  It would probably mean Buxton starts at AAA but if he's hitting .400 in six weeks, Span would be a good insurance against a Santana-like drop off for Rosario or replace a failed Sano experiment in right field.  And if everything is working out, well, then we have the too much talent problem, which is a good problem to have.  Plus, I always liked Span.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Marshall told the Cincinnati Enquirer in September that he wants to keep playing and was toying with a new arm angle. He's obviously a long shot, but if he looks good in his throwing sessions, he would be a nice no-risk gamble with some upside much like Fernando Abad. If he can return anywhere close to his previous form, he'd be a big pick-up.

Recent Twins history suggests Abad is all but guaranteed a spot at this point, no?  And the minor league deal just gives them 40-man flexibility until opening day?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is a lame excuse. The front office certainly didn't care that it might "potentially clog the system's internal pipeline" when it signed/re-signed/extended mid-level (or worse) starting pitchers the past two off-seasons or a DH this off-season. Personally, I'm not a proponent of spending big money on a reliever, but any concerns about clogging the internal bullpen pipeline seem absolutely ridiculous to me. The bullpen is the part of the roster with the most flexibility and the most year-to-year variability. There is always someone replaceable in the bullpen - it is the last place I would worry about potentially blocking some prospect that is more than a year away. Also, the money commitment for relievers is so low (even with multi-year deals) that cutting someone in year 2 or 3 of a deal shouldn't be any significant financial setback to the team.

Agreed 100%.

 

I will add that this excuse is especially ridiculous given our current bullpen, since zero of our "internal pipeline" relief prospects look ready to contribute in MLB on opening day, and there are so few long-term commitments in our current MLB pen -- Jepsen is a FA after one more year, Perkins two (plus a team option), and Fien is a potential non-tender next winter.  And arguably our best reliever (May) could well be needed in the rotation.

 

This pen might be short on present-day MLB talent, but it absolutely is not short on the kind of flexibility that can handle a 3/18 type FA addition.

 

[old nurse]

 

Recent Twins history suggests Abad is all but guaranteed a spot at this point, no?  And the minor league deal just gives them 40-man flexibility until opening day?

The only similar recent history with a pitcher on a minor league contract with a ST invite was Guerrier. He did not get to the 25 man roster until May.  I think he replaced Pelfrey on the roster.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Recent Twins history suggests Abad is all but guaranteed a spot at this point, no?  And the minor league deal just gives them 40-man flexibility until opening day?

I'm sure it will hinge on how he looks in spring training. Doesn't hurt to have an additional option in the mix. And it's not implausible that both could make the roster; the Twins are bereft of dependable lefty bullpen options right now.

[Loosey]

In regards to the bullpen I am not concerned with "blocking" young prospects.  I think they will be up soon and perform well if ready.  For now I would get the best arms in the pen I could possibly get. If that means 3 year $18M deals, so be it.  If there does become a log jam at some point there is no rule against trading positions of surplus.  

 

In addition to this, the "Big Three" in our pen are questionable in my eyes.  May could be called on to be a starter again at some point, Jepsen performed well but can he consistently do it this year again?  Perkins has really struggled the last two years in the 2nd half.  So any one of them could be out of the pen at some point due to injury, back in rotation, regressing or traded if need be.

 

Bring on some arms and let them fight for their spots.  The Twins should not be guaranteeing spots to anyone at this point.  Get the best arms you can get.

[Rosterman]

 

This is a lame excuse. The front office certainly didn't care that it might "potentially clog the system's internal pipeline" when it signed/re-signed/extended mid-level (or worse) starting pitchers the past two off-seasons or a DH this off-season. Personally, I'm not a proponent of spending big money on a reliever, but any concerns about clogging the internal bullpen pipeline seem absolutely ridiculous to me. The bullpen is the part of the roster with the most flexibility and the most year-to-year variability. There is always someone replaceable in the bullpen - it is the last place I would worry about potentially blocking some prospect that is more than a year away. Also, the money commitment for relievers is so low (even with multi-year deals) that cutting someone in year 2 or 3 of a deal shouldn't be any significant financial setback to the team.

It is a game of numbers. Besides May and Berrios, the Twins really have no other starter ready to jump into the mix, and the Twins seem happy to have May in the bullpen for now. Duffey was a surprise, but...  What hurt the most was that names like Nolasco and Milone didn't increase their value to other clubs and have, thus, become an albatross on the Twins mound. Milone could find some seekers after arbitration establishes his salary. It always hurts when a player doesn't produce for the team and thus loses value. Same can be said for prospects such as Santana, Vargas and Arcia, who could've been decent tradebait. Sometimes you have to trade your youth, like Hicks, for parts that you need. Would the Twins consider an offer for, say, Rosario now and hope that he doesn't have a soph slump? It is what makes the job difficult. Do you grab a Span (or as lasy year, a Hunter) to keep you in the game and lose an Arcia? Do you keep pumping the youth thru your clubhouse hoping one sticks? For msot players, do you actually find out their team worth in year two, or year four, or year seven? How long do you wait? 

 

I feel the Twins bullpen is largely set with expectations on future arrivals rather than dole out a three-year contract to some arm. I will agree that more stock has been put into the potential worth of Fien than he probably deserves at this point. And we have to hope Jepson is still a hot set-up guy. Yes, I would like a more established third man (preferably a lefty) to be added to the mix, but see that the Twins may be able to cobble together a one-season surprise from their minor league invites. It won't be glamorous, and we may have a tagteam like last year's Thompson/O'Rourke (argh!) but I am hoping that those rotation arms will get us into the 7th inning consistently and that the Twins may have 4 pitchers that throw 200 innings of 4.00 ball.

[KGB]

 

This pen might be short on present-day MLB talent, but it absolutely is not short on the kind of flexibility that can handle a 3/18 type FA addition.

Isn't that the same thought process we had when signing Nolasco to a 4 year contact? It's easy for us to say just eat the contract, it would be harder to continue to go to your boss and say that.

 

Relief pitcher are up and down and Bastardo is a great example of that, he pitches well every other year.  Given all draft picks spent on relief pitching and the pitchers in the system, I think giving a 3 year contact to a relief pitcher will be a bad decision.

[James Richter]

All that crazy intrigue around not letting any rival scouts watch Melotakis during instructionals makes me think the Twins are very high on him internally. If he's close, the 1-year deal for a Thornton or Cotts makes sense. Personally, I'd rather see them get Bastardo and take a flier on Marshall, though. They should absolutely be looking into Storen, too.

[laloesch]

 

Isn't that the same thought process we had when signing Nolasco to a 4 year contact? It's easy for us to say just eat the contract, it would be harder to continue to go to your boss and say that.

 

Relief pitcher are up and down and Bastardo is a great example of that, he pitches well every other year.  Given all draft picks spent on relief pitching and the pitchers in the system, I think giving a 3 year contact to a relief pitcher will be a bad decision.

 

 

Agreed.  With ALL of the relievers drafted the last two years, the Twins are bound to have a success story soon (preferably this season).  We have a long list of names to choose from (Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Burdii, Rogers, Darnell, Meyer, Berrios, etc.).  Would it be a good idea to start Berrios and Meyer in the bullpen allowing them to gain experience at the major league level?   

[nicksaviking]

All the good stuff is out of stock, there are no free agents left for the pen that look like much help at all. Give Burdi, Meyer, Chargois, Rogers, Melotakis, Reed and Peterson priority seating in spring training. Go with the upside over experience; make Fein and company have to out pitch THEM, not the other way around.

 

If the Twins can get Storen on a below-market deal that would be OK by me too. I'd prefer it best if the Twins gave him the closer gig though as then their lefty "problem" could be solved by Perkins filling that role. Plus Storen in a full season as a closer could possibly be worth a QO at the end of the year.

 

Long shots I acknowledge, both paragraphs would likely take a philosophical change to occur.

[ThejacKmp]

If Span is really willing to take a 1 year deal (seems farfetched, he's 31 and is going to want to cash in now - I imagine that the delay is teams not wanting to give an extra year that he wants, whether that's a third or a fourth) the only thing that would take him back to MN is nostalgia. The Twins could offer to trade him if they don't have room to start him at some point but no players wants that to be the plan because it makes him less marketable the next offseason (not good enough to finish with the same team) and it takes away his choice of where he's going to play (not to mention all of the having-to-move aspects for a guy who just got married).

 

Seems super unlikely. My guess is that if Span takes a 1 year deal it will be with the Rays. He makes his home there and the Rays need a left-handed bat and Span might be a nice upgrade on Desmond Jennings, who has never turned into the player the Rays hoped he would.

 

Would love it though!

[tobi0040]

What frustrates me about Terry Ryan is he would rather take two 1 year, $3M gambles every year than sign a sure thing on a 2-3 year deal at $6M per year.

 

What would you rather have?

 

Tony Sipp and a rookie at $6M, or two from the bargain bin at $3M a year? Typically guys with serious injury concerns.  Rich Harden types.  Guys that have made 31 appearances in the last three years. 

 

If you have $5-10M of your payroll every year devoted to these, wouldn't it just be better to sign an actual productive player with that money? 

[gunnarthor]

 

What frustrates me about Terry Ryan is he would rather take two 1 year, $3M gambles every year than sign a sure thing on a 2-3 year deal at $6M per year.

 

What would you rather have?

 

Tony Sipp and a rookie at $6M, or two from the bargain bin at $3M a year? Typically guys with serious injury concerns.  Rich Harden types.  Guys that have made 31 appearances in the last three years. 

 

If you have $5-10M of your payroll every year devoted to these, wouldn't it just be better to sign an actual productive player with that money? 

Doesn't Sipp himself contradict your argument?  He sucked for years, Houston got him last year on a 1y/2.5m deal.  Now he signed his big contract.  

 

There are a few bullpen arms that are constantly good but most relief pitchers can have some pretty good years followed by  a pretty bad year, and vice versa.  I don't think any of these 6m guys are necessarily sure things.

[gocgo]

The only guys I'd consider trading are Nolasco (obviously, we would have to pay some of the contract) and Arcia.  At this point, Arcia doesn't fit on this team.  We don't need a DH at this point.  Arcia in the outfield is a defensive liability that his bat doesn't make up for.  So, other than a lefty bat that will swing for the fence and occasionally put one there, Arcia really doesn't bring much to the table.

[KGB]

 

Doesn't Sipp himself contradict your argument?  He sucked for years, Houston got him last year on a 1y/2.5m deal.  Now he signed his big contract.  

 

There are a few bullpen arms that are constantly good but most relief pitchers can have some pretty good years followed by  a pretty bad year, and vice versa.  I don't think any of these 6m guys are necessarily sure things.

Agree, below is Blaine Boyer's ERA+ compared to the FA pitchers:

 

Blaine Boyer                 167

Antonio Bastardo          129

Tyler Clippard                122

 

If you miss on the Boyer type of pitcher, you easily can release him and move on. But if you are locked in for 3 years for $6+ million per year and you miss on him, he's going to be on the roster.

 

[tobi0040]

 

Agree, below is Blaine Boyer's ERA+ compared to the FA pitchers:

 

Blaine Boyer                 167

Antonio Bastardo          129

Tyler Clippard                122

 

If you miss on the Boyer type of pitcher, you easily can release him and move on. But if you are locked in for 3 years for $6+ million per year and you miss on him, he's going to be on the roster.

 

That was a one year look on a small sample (all relievers have a small sample any one year)

 

Boyers career ERA+ is 98.  League average in 2014 and out of the league the previous 3 seasons.

 

Bastardo is 109, and has had a 129 or higher in 3 of the last 5 years. The other two he has been about league average.   

 

Clippard's career average is 138.  Been a stud for years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The only similar recent history with a pitcher on a minor league contract with a ST invite was Guerrier. He did not get to the 25 man roster until May.  I think he replaced Pelfrey on the roster.

Guerrier's delayed arrival was partly due to recent surgery.

 

I wouldn't restrict yourself to looking at pitchers either -- the point is, the Twins have a history of signing MLB veterans to minor league deals that are de facto MLB deals, but give them some roster flexibility through spring training.  Burton, Sean Burroughs, Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, maybe even Boyer...  all signs point to Abad being in that group as well.  Most observers were surprised he "settled" for a minor league deal, which suggests it's probably a de facto MLB deal too.

[gunnarthor]

 

That was a one year look on a small sample (all relievers have a small sample any one year)

 

Boyers career ERA+ is 98.  League average in 2014 and out of the league the previous 3 seasons.

 

Bastardo is 109, and has had a 129 or higher in 3 of the last 5 years. The other two he has been about league average.   

 

Clippard's career average is 138.  Been a stud for years.

Sure, but Clippard isn't signing for 6m/yr (at least I don't think he is).  If you're going to lock up a relief pitcher on a 3/18 deal, I think I'd want a better track record than Tony Sipp.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Doesn't Sipp himself contradict your argument?  He sucked for years, Houston got him last year on a 1y/2.5m deal.  Now he signed his big contract.  

 

There are a few bullpen arms that are constantly good but most relief pitchers can have some pretty good years followed by  a pretty bad year, and vice versa.  I don't think any of these 6m guys are necessarily sure things.

Sipp didn't entirely "suck for years" -- he actually was pretty effective for a few years early with Cleveland, then rebounded with Houston in 2014.  And his 2015 salary wasn't set by the open market -- with less than 6 years service time, he was still under Houston's control.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that these 6m guys are sure things, but they are almost certainly better bets than the Twins have been taking in their bullpen constructions the past 5 years.  If the Twins had a track record of identifying and turning around guys like Sipp, I'd understand, but we don't.

Edited January 6, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

Sipp didn't entirely "suck for years" -- he actually was pretty effective for a few years early with Cleveland, then rebounded with Houston in 2014.  And his 2015 salary wasn't set by the open market -- with less than 6 years service time, he was still under Houston's control.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that these 6m guys are sure things, but they are almost certainly better bets than the Twins have been taking in their bullpen constructions the past 5 years.  If the Twins had a track record of identifying and turning around guys like Sipp, I'd understand, but we don't.

 

I totally agree. Making an argument for Boyer is more of the same.  Resign average-ish guys at $2-3M a year like Duensing and Fien, then take 1-2 fliers on one year guys. 

 

Some sort of work out for a little bit like Burton and Boyer.  But in the end the law of averages usually takes over.  Others, like Stauffer completely bomb and represent money that could have been invested in a guy with some sort of track record.

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Isn't that the same thought process we had when signing Nolasco to a 4 year contact? It's easy for us to say just eat the contract, it would be harder to continue to go to your boss and say that.

 

Relief pitcher are up and down and Bastardo is a great example of that, he pitches well every other year.  Given all draft picks spent on relief pitching and the pitchers in the system, I think giving a 3 year contact to a relief pitcher will be a bad decision.

The relief contracts proposed here are all shorter and significantly cheaper than Nolasco's deal.  And Nolasco's deal itself didn't clog any pipeline -- it was the combination of that deal plus the two similarly expensive deals/extensions we handed out a year later that have put a bit of a squeeze on our younger/cheaper starters.  No one here is suggesting signing three multi-year FA relievers, just one to give us a better chance to be strong on opening day 2016, and insurance for all the question marks in our pen (Perkins health, Jepsen FA, Fien nontender, prospects stagnating, etc.).  If that FA reliever has a down year, we still have a ton of flexibility to put them in a low-leverage role if we want to.

[tobi0040]

 

Sure, but Clippard isn't signing for 6m/yr (at least I don't think he is).  If you're going to lock up a relief pitcher on a 3/18 deal, I think I'd want a better track record than Tony Sipp.  

 

Clippard is reportedly seeking a two year deal.  I would guess under 2-20.  He is really, really good.  Given that he and Perkins would be the only relievers making real money and if you look around at KC and NYY as examples, we are out-gunned big time

[gunnarthor]

 

Sipp didn't entirely "suck for years" -- he actually was pretty effective for a few years early with Cleveland, then rebounded with Houston in 2014.  And his 2015 salary wasn't set by the open market -- with less than 6 years service time, he was still under Houston's control.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that these 6m guys are sure things, but they are almost certainly better bets than the Twins have been taking in their bullpen constructions the past 5 years.  If the Twins had a track record of identifying and turning around guys like Sipp, I'd understand, but we don't.

The Twins got some pretty good seasons (at least as effective as Sipp's other years) out of bargain bin guys like Fien, Burton, Guerrier, Reyes, Boyer.