Article: 2016 Twins Roster Projections: The Catchers

[Seth Stohs]

Big league spring training starts in a little over a month. Rosters throughout the organization are starting to come together. As you likely would expect, I have my 2016 Twins Roster Projections document already set up. Today, I’ll start sharing my roster projections by looking at the catching position throughout the system.As always, there are a lot of catchers. There are two to four catchers listed at each level. A lot of catchers are needed during spring training, and then during extended spring training. Depth is also important as catchers get hurt. We’ve seen concussions and other injuries throughout the system. Catcher is a key position in any organization.

 

MAJOR LEAGUES

 

Kurt Suzuki is the incumbent. 2016 will be his tenth in the big leagues. He is coming off of a frustrating 2015 season in which he hit just .240/.296/.314 (.610). He threw out just 15% of the 94 would-be base stealers.

 

The Twins traded Chris Herrmann to Arizona. Eric Fryer signed a minor league deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. Josmil Pinto was claimed by the San Diego Padres when the Twins took him off of their 40-man roster. (He was since DFAd by San Diego and claimed by Milwaukee.)

 

The day after trading Herrmann, Terry Ryan traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees in exchange for 24-year-old catcher John Ryan Murphy. He has played in 115 games for the Yankees, backing up Brian McCann, over the last three seasons. Over that time, he has hit .267/.311/.374 (.685). In 67 games in 2015, he hit .277/.327/.406 (.734). He threw out 28% of base runners.

 

The Twins claimed John Hicks from Seattle shortly before the Winter Meetings. The 26-year-old appears to be an adequate offensive player. He has thrown out at least 38% of would-be base stealers in each of his five professional seasons.

 

MINOR LEAGUES

 

Before we get to the minor league catchers, a quick reminder that you can now pick up the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook in paperback or eBook version. With the 142 pages, you will be able to learn much more about each of the players mentioned below. Please consider picking up a copy. Or, you can order five or more copies and get 20% off print books by using the promo code, JANBULK20. It expires on Wednesday.

 

ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (paperback, $15.99)

 

ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (eBook, $10.99)

 

To learn more about all of the prospects in the Twins organization, make sure to order the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. The 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook goes in-depth and provides player bios, scouting reports, statistics and much more on almost 160 Twins minor leaguers. From Abreu to Young, learn more about some of the Future Minnesota Twins.

 

Rochester Red Wings

 

Hicks will likely be the primary catcher in Rochester. 26-year-old Juan Centeno played 14 games with the Mets in 2013 and 2014, and another ten games with the Brewers in 2015. The Twins signed him to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league spring training. He’s solid behind the plate. In 2013, he threw out 56% of base stealers. That number was 25% in 2015. Carlos Paulino split time between Chattanooga and Rochester a year ago. The 26-year-old has a strong arm and a little pop in his bat.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts

 

The catching situation in Chattanooga could be very interesting early in the season. Two very good prospects, Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver, could both start there.

 

Turner was the Twins third-round pick in 2013 out of Ole Miss. He spent the 2015 season with the Lookouts and hit .223/.322/.306 (.628) with 18 extra base hits. Known for his all-around defensive game, he threw out 39% of base stealers last year. He hit .171 in 12 games in the Arizona Fall League. He hit better in the second half. He was pushed right to Ft. Myers in his first full season. I think it mght benefit Turner to spend another half-season with the Lookouts to continue to work on his offensive game. He just turned 24 a week ago.

 

Garver was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2013 out of New Mexico. He was our choice for Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2014 at Cedar Rapids. He struggled a bit, especially early, with the bat in 2015 in Ft. Myers. Defensively, he has made big improvements and last year threw out 38% of base stealers. He played in 12 games in the AFL and hit .317 (.916 OPS). He will turn 25 in a little over a week.

 

Alex Swim was a late-round pick in 2013 out of Elon University. He hit .311 in Cedar Rapids in 2014, and last year, he hit .311 in Ft. Myers. He can catch and has a strong arm, but he’ll play a lot at 1B and RF as well as DH. The Twins signed independent league All-Star Joe Maloney as well. The 25-year-old hit .337/.432/.559 (.991) with 33 doubles and 14 homers for Rockland in the Can Am League. He’ll compete for a spot with the Lookouts.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Brian Navarreto (21) was the Twins sixth-round pick in 2013 out of high school in Florida. At 6-4 and 230 pounds, he is a big target and has a very strong arm behind the plate. In 86 game in Cedar Rapids last year, he threw out 56% of baserunners, just below the remarkable 59% of would-be base stealers the year before in E-Town. To this point, he has not hit as a professional. He hit .217/.256/.281 (.537).

 

As a 24-year-old in Cedar Rapids in 2015, Brett Doe hit .246/.300/.321 (.621) with 11 doubles and three homers. He got eight games with Ft. Myers as well and that’s where he should spend 2016. Doe is solid behind the plate. At Baylor he played all over the place, including some shortstop.

 

Alex Real was the Twins 24^th round pick in 2014 out of New Mexico where he was a teammate of Mitch Garver. Real’s 2015 was delayed due to a 50-game suspension. He returned and played 64 games for the Kernels. He hit .261/.322/.383 (.704) with 11 doubles, four triples and three homers. He can catch, but he can also play first base and DH.

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Jorge Fernandez was the Twins seventh-round pick in 2013 out of high school in Puerto Rico. He is a very good athlete and there is frequent talk about him being moved to the outfield. He actually played two games in right field in 2015. He also played more first base than catcher in 2015. In 56 games, he hit .215/.268/.341 (.610) with 14 doubles, two triples and three homers. He didn’t throw out a base runner in 2015. He could return to the Kernels, but he may not be catching as much going forward.

 

Rainis Silva is a 19-year-old from Venezuela. He played 32 games in Elizabethton after getting into 11 games with Cedar Rapids earlier in the season. He should move up to Cedar Rapids in 2016. He’s a good glove, strong-armed backstop who continues to grow his game.

 

20-year-old Rafael Valera joined the Kernels in the middle of their season. He played in 62 games, mostly at second base, and hit .283/.378/.338 (.716) with ten doubles and a triple. He went to Instructional League to work on catching, a position he has not played to this point.

 

Jose Ortiz was signed last month as a free agent after being released by the Reds organization. He has played a combined 82 games for Dayton in the Midwest League over the past two seasons. He hit .198 and .199 in those seasons. He’ll likely get a shot to play for the Kernels.

 

2015 College Draft Picks

 

There are several catchers selected by the Twins in the later rounds of the 2015 draft who will compete for spots with the Kernels. It’s likely several of them will begin the season at extended spring training, awaiting an opportunity. Brian Olson (34^th round) was the best hitter of the bunch in his debut season. In 32 games between the GCL and E-Town, he hit .302/.414/.415 (.829) with four doubles and two homers. He threw out 9 of 14 base runners (64%). AJ Murray was the team’s 14^th round pick out of Georgia Tech. He went right to Elizabethton where he hit .264/.366/.409 (.774) with 11 doubles and four homers in 51 games. He threw out 32% of base runners. Bryant Hayman went undrafted after four years at Valdosta State. In 33 GCL games, he hit .222/.322/.394 (.716) with seven doubles, two triples and two homers.

 

Likely at least two of those three will go to extended spring training. Kerby Camacho and Lean Marrero, two high school catchers from Puerto Rico, will certainly be in EST and likely play in the GCL. Camacho was suspended for 60 games for PED use. 19-year-old Robert Molina hit .235/.289/.294 (.583) with four doubles and a homer in 37 games in the GCL. He could move up to Elizabethton.

 

SUMMARY

 

I would fully expect Suzuki and Murphy to split time early in the 2016 season. I think that within a couple of months, Murphy will begin to see more playing time. Murphy is young and can be a league average catcher. He could be the catcher of the future. Eric Fryer has been the #3 catcher the last couple of years, able to come up and go down. There was risk as he wasn’t kept on the 40-man roster. That role could be filled by Hicks who has two years of options remaining.

 

The top prospects remain Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver. In reality, one of them could be ready for a big league spot sometime in 2017. It is a big year for both of them.

 

It’s pretty clear that the Twins have made a concerted effort to improve their catcher defense. You can see that throughout the system. Catcher is, and should be, a defense-first position. However, as we all know, a catcher also needs to be able to hit a little bit to provide much value.

 

Catcher Prospect Rankings

• Stuart Turner,
• Mitch Garver,
• Brian Navarreto,
• Rainis Silva,
• John Hicks.

 

Click here to view the article

[Platoon]

Nice summary. Thank you for making it clear that catching is a defense first position. My biggest "aggravation" about Suzuki was his defense, primarily his throwing, not his offense. We got spoiled by Mauer. His offensive stats set our bar a little higher than it might have to be.

[beckmt]

Agree with the nice summary.  Hopefully Murphy does become a league average catcher, we gave up a to acquire him. Hoping that Garver becomes the answer by mid 2017.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I think you're dead on with the proposition of letting Turner start the year again in AA. Being pushed immediately to the FSL where offense comes at a premium may have stunted his hitting in his first full professional year.

 

It would be fun to see both Turner and Garver in Chattanooga. I'd have to imagine they could push each other through some friendly competition. My only worry would be reps for each, but hopefully the DH slot would help with that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nice summary. Thank you for making it clear that catching is a defense first position. My biggest "aggravation" about Suzuki was his defense, primarily his throwing, not his offense. We got spoiled by Mauer. His offensive stats set our bar a little higher than it might have to be.

 

We're good at that... There are like 8 catchers in the history of baseball who have done what Mauer did for as long as he did. 

 

But yes, I 100% believe that defense is vital behind the plate. I also believe that the things that really matter for a catcher behind the plate aren't measured. Caught Stealing Percentage is nice. Pitch Framing can be OK. But I think that working with a pitcher during and especially before a game is crucial. Developing that relationship. Gaining that trust. Calling a good game and being able to adapt quickly in-game to what is and isn't working for a pitcher. 

 

Talking to a few people, both Turner and Garver are really good at that. Pitchers love throwing to both of them and working with both of them.

[REPETE]

Is this a good spot to propose we trade Ricky Nolasco for Buster Posey?  That would change this list, wouldn't it?

[Boone]

I'm pretty high on Turner.  He's always displayed good plate discipline and made significant improvements in the 2nd half of 2015 (BB:K ratio increased from .55 to .77 and his OPS increased from .550 to .704, compared to the 1st half).  

 

My hope for him is to be in AAA within a few months and to be challenging for the starting position by mid-season 2017.  

[Kwak]

"Defense-first"--management speak for "we really don't have catchers that can hit...".  But, they keep trying.  Maybe someday they will find someone.

[Platoon]

"Defense-first"--management speak for "we really don't catchers that can hit...".  But, they keep trying.  Maybe someday they will find someone.

No doubt this is used by most FO's to describe a below average hitter, in a positive light. But IMHO a prime defensive player in CF, SS, and behind the plate will prevent more runs, than an offense first one can produce. Needless to say, everyone wants both offense and defense, but there aren't enough of them to go around.

[clutterheart]

Sickles wrote that Garver has "work to do"to become proficient behind the plate.

Last year he split time between C, 1B and DH at Fort Meyers.

 

I wonder if the Twins start moving him around the diamond to see if he can't find a position, I am not sure if he can stick as catcher.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm pretty high on Turner.  He's always displayed good plate discipline and made significant improvements in the 2nd half of 2015 (BB:K ratio increased from .55 to .77 and his OPS increased from .550 to .704, compared to the 1st half).  

 

My hope for him is to be in AAA within a few months and to be challenging for the starting position by mid-season 2017.  

 

I've watched Turner hit quite a bit over the last couple of years. He has the strength and the approach at the plate that I believe he can be a good hitter. Maybe never a great hitter, but I think he should be able to hold his own. Will he? We'll see. 

[bluechipper]

 

Sickles wrote that Garver has "work to do"to become proficient behind the plate.

Last year he split time between C, 1B and DH at Fort Meyers.

 

I wonder if the Twins start moving him around the diamond to see if he can't find a position, I am not sure if he can stick as catcher.

He better be able to stick at catcher, because that's his only chance to make it. He's got decent hitting numbers, but not anywhere close to be able to profile at another position.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Sickles wrote that Garver has "work to do"to become proficient behind the plate.

Last year he split time between C, 1B and DH at Fort Meyers.

 

I wonder if the Twins start moving him around the diamond to see if he can't find a position, I am not sure if he can stick as catcher.

 

They move him around to keep his bat in the lineup. Catchers just can't, don't catch every day, so it keeps him in the lineup. 

[Madre Dos]

Ortiz was placed on the Elizabethton Roster December 29.   Silva is very good and hard working.   Had a bit of trouble during the start of his season in Elizabethton last year.   He was not used to playing in the cool mountain evenings and his prescription goggles fogged up during games.    Once he switched to contacts, he did great.  Very nice kid - I wish him well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins claimed John Hicks from Seattle shortly before the Winter Meetings. The 26-year-old appears to be an adequate offensive player. He has thrown out at least 38% of would-be base stealers in each of his five professional seasons.

I assume you meant "adequate defensive player" here instead?  John Hicks posted a 68 wRC+ in AAA last season.

Edited January 6, 2016 by spycake

[Rosterman]

Catching has become a two-player sport. You need a backup. It seems teams CAN BE happy with a backstop playing 80-90 games on a regular basis. If someone can do 120, you have a gem. If they play 140...wow. 

 

You always have to look at league average for hitting and fielding. Yes, a catcher can throw out baserunners, but they do need a little help from the starter on the mound, too. Not that you don't play to win in the minors (you do), but so much more happens on the field in the majors. 

 

Can you survive with a no-hit, good call/throwout catcher in the lineup (think back to Phil Roof, Jerry Zimmerman). Do you hope to get a Brian Harper or Russ Nixon-type? 

 

But the bigger question is always depth. What happens when the guy goes down, which seems to be happening more and more these days with the concussion concern.

 

It looks like the Twins may have adequate defense behind-the-plate for the next decade with some okay pop from a couple of guys, but no one looks like someone that will score big when they enter arbitration or free agency (although there are a couple of young unknowns who might just do that). And once you start removing ANY of the names above from behind-the-plate, how might they fit into the Twins future plans?

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I really don't see the love for Turner as compared to Garver. Garver was a pretty good defensive catcher in college (runner up to Turner if memory serves me) and has been good enough in his professional career while posting an OPS significantly higher than Turner. I don't think there's a question as to who is the better prospect at this stage of the game. I would start them accordingly. I think Navaretto should probably return to Cedar Rapids. He didn't hit well, and while his defense is ready, I think letting him work on his bat in a familiar environment would be wise. That allows for Turner to remain in Fort Meyer while Garver can ply his work in AA. That's how I'd do that personally.