Article: Finding 2016's Twins Breakout Prospect

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's minor league system has seen a trend in recent years. Each year there seems to be one prospect that stands out above the rest to have a breakout season. Many of these players are already considered top prospects but their individual performances in one season put them on the cusp of being above-average at the big league level.

 

In 2015, Max Kepler (This year's cover athlete for the 2016 Twins Prospect Handbook) stood out above the crowd on his way to being named Southern League MVP. The 2014 season saw Jose Berrios dominate at multiple levels on his way to winning the first of two straight Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year Awards. Byron Buxton was named Baseball America's 2013 Minor League Player of the Year after he was very impressive in his first full season of action.

 

So who will follow in the footsteps of Buxton, Berrios and Kepler? All three players could see significant time at the big league level next season so the torch will need to be passed to someone else.ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (paperback, $15.99)

 

ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (eBook, $10.99)

 

To learn more about all of the prospects in the Twins organization, make sure to order the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. The 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook goes in-depth and provides player bios, scouting reports, statistics and much more on almost 160 Twins minor leaguers. From Abreu to Young, learn more about some of the Future Minnesota Twins.

 

Nick Gordon- SS

Highest 2015 Level: Cedar Rapids Kernels (Low-A)

Projected 2016 Level: Fort Myers (High-A)

With other players graduating off of the Twins top prospect list, Gordon is poised to take over the top spot going into next season. He will likely play the entire season at Fort Myers in the Florida State League which has been known to be more favorable to pitchers than hitters. As a 20 year-old, it will be interesting to watch him grow into his body. There are expectations that he will be able to add some power as he adds weight and a more experienced swing at the plate. If he can make offensive strides in a pitcher's league and continue to play solid defense at shortstop, Gordon should be the team's easy choice for breakout prospect in 2016.

 

Kohl Stewart- RHP

Highest 2015 Level: Fort Myers Miracle (High-A)

Projected 2016 Level: Fort Myers Miracle (High-A), Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A)

Minnesota knew there were going to be things for Stewart to work on when the organization drafted him. He had been a two sport star in high school so he spent a lot of time playing both football and baseball. Now he's had multiple years to work in the Twins system to refine his pitching mechanics. There have been some inconsistencies as he has moved through the system so he could see himself back in Fort Myers to start the 2016 campaign. If he can make small improvements at High-A and Double-A this season, there's a good chance he will be a breakout prospect candidate.

 

Stephen Gonsalves- LHP

Highest 2015 Level: Fort Myers Miracle (High-A)

Projected 2016 Level: Fort Myers Miracle (High-A), Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A)

Some might argue that Gonsalves had his breakout season in 2015. He firmly established himself as one of the Twins best starting pitching prospects and he is a consensus top-10 Twins prospects entering the 2016 season. He and Stewart should push each other by starting at High-A and working to get to the Double-A level. Since Gonsalves is a left-handed hurler, he brings some added value and it will be interesting to see what he can do against competition in the higher levels of the minor leagues. As a more polished pitcher than Stewart, expect him to move faster in 2016 and quite possibly become the team's best pitching prospect as Berrios uses up his rookie eligibility.

 

ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (paperback, $15.99)

 

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Tyler Jay- LHP

Highest 2015 Level: Fort Myers Miracle (High-A)

Projected 2016 Level: Fort Myers Miracle (High-A), Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A)

As the Twins first-round pick in 2015, Jay might seem like an easy candidate to break out in 2016. He has college experience and he was successful during the second half of his pro debut. However, the Twins are going to transition the lefty from shutdown bullpen arm to the starting rotation. This transition will come with plenty of watchful eyes as it's hard to know what to expect with an unproven asset. The Twins have a lot invested in him so expect them to control his innings and for him to get some bullpen time as well. For him to be the team's breakout prospect, he'd have to be lights out during his time as a starter.

 

Adam Brett Walker- OF

Highest 2015 Level: Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A)

Projected 2016 Level: Rochester Red Wings (Triple-A), Minnesota Twins (MLB)

Walker is a monster power prospect and he continues to impress with his show of strength at each level in the organization. He helped lead the Lookouts to the Southern League Championship this season and then he went on to have a big impact in the Arizona Fall League as his team won that championship too. Walker will likely start next season at the Triple-A level where he will need to take some strides at the plate to cut back on strikeouts and increase his on-base ability. He should make his debut in 2016 but he will need to show that he can improve at the highest level in the minor leagues.

 

Who do you think will be the Twins breakout prospect in 2016? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (paperback, $15.99)

 

ORDER NOW: 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (eBook, $10.99)

 

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[Thrylos]

If I had to pick a pitcher, I'd pick Mason Melotakis.

If I had to pick a position player, I'd have to flip a coin between Levi Michael and Travis Harrison.

 

Other than Gonsalves (who is too young and needs another pitch) and Tyler Jay (who will have hiccups in his first full season as a starter next year,)  I think that the players in your list, are not top talent, to tell you the truth

[ExpectMorePayLess]

The Only Prospect in System to EARN:
*Mid Season All Star (respective leagues) - 2013 / 2014 / 2015
*Post Season All Star (respective leagues) - 2013 / 2014 / 2015
*Organizational All Star (Twins) - 2013 / 2014 / 2015
*League Leader in (TB / XBH / HRs / RBI) - 2013 / 2014 - 2015
NOT JUST A HOME RUN THREAT
*4 Championships in 4 Years - 2012 - 2014 - 2015 (AA) - 2015 (AFL)

Still several posters are non believers and thus he is worthy as my Breakout Prospect.      ABW II

For the record - He ranked 18th in his league in strikeouts (20% rate) in 2013.  He has not led the league in strikeouts every year of his professional career.   That just shows me that he is capable. 

He has been below league average for age at every level despite going to college.         2nd youngest college player in draft 2012 (4 year school).

[gunnarthor]

Of the list, Gordon's the easy answer - during a chat last year, a BP writer gave him a future 70 value and other writers defended it.  He can stick at short and should be a good hitter.  I really like him.

 

Jay will be fine. 

 

Stewart is the most interesting prospect we have this year, IMHO.  I'm very interested to see how he does and if he can improve on his strikeout numbers. I think this year will answer a lot of questions, one way or other.

 

I'm not nearly as high on Gonsalves or Walker as others.  I think the Twins have 4 pitchers who could be a #1 or #2 starter (stuff-wise) if things broke right - Berrios, Jay, Meyer and Stewart.  Walker needs plate discipline badly.

 

Of those not listed, I actually like Thrylos' mention of Melotakis but I think Burdi is the pitching answer.  He'll be a big weapon in the ML pen by July.

[TNTwinsFan]

My money is on Gonsalves and ABW. 2nd Tier would be Burdi and (shocker) Mitch "Yes, I play Catcher" Garver. Maybe my feelings on this are less fact-base, and more hunch based..but whatever.

[Seth Stohs]

All depends on your definition of Breakout. To me a breakout player is a guy to kind of come out of nowhere to be a top prospect. For me, Randy Rosario is that guy probably. 

 

If it's who I think will be the team's #1 prospect going into 2017, I'll agree with Nick Gordon.

[clutterheart]

Ive been picking Travis Harrison to break out for the last two years.....

 

3rd times the Charm!

 

 

[roger]

Can a break out prospect be someone who hits .275 or so at AA?  After hitting almost that well at Fort Myers, if Engelb Vielma can hit for a .275 average with say a .325 OBP and 35-40 stolen bases he could put his hat in the ring as that breakout player.  If Vielma is as good defensively as everyone says and hits this well at AA, he could be staking his claim to be the Twins shortstop for the next decade beginning sometime in 2017.  Could he become a Twins all-star shortstop, kind of similar to Zoilo Versalles?

 

And what do the Twins do with Gordon if Vielma is their shortstop of the future?  Could Gordon become Dozier's replacement as his contract comes to an end in a couple years? 

[nicksaviking]

I'm going with Lewis Thorpe. No clue at what point he'll be throwing in games again, but I hope when he does, we're all going to be saying, "Man, I forgot how damn high I was on this guy until the TJ issue!"

 

My bet is that he's going to be a top 2 team prospect this time next year.

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

And what do the Twins do with Gordon if Vielma is their shortstop of the future?  Could Gordon become Dozier's replacement as his contract comes to an end in a couple years? 

Its a few years away from happening so not worried about it.    I really didn't like the way Dozier looked the second half last year so maybe Polanco will be the guy the others have to beat out.    BTW, I assume Gordon is slated as the leadoff hitter of the future so I don't care if he adds power or not.  He needs to get on base.

[roger]

 

I'm going with Lewis Thorpe. No clue at what point he'll be throwing in games again, but I hope when he does, we're all going to be saying, "Man, I forgot how damn high I was on this guy until the TJ issue!"

 

My bet is that he's going to be a top 2 team prospect this time next year.

In total agreement with how high of a ceiling I see Thorpe having.  Expect he will be throwing in extended spring training and join either Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers in June.  Is that where you would see him going next summer, Seth?

[Dantes929]

I thought of Thorpe right away also but kind of thought he already had a breakout year.    Since he had the surgery at the beginning of last year I am hoping to see results a bit earlier.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

In total agreement with how high of a ceiling I see Thorpe having.  Expect he will be throwing in extended spring training and join either Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers in June.  Is that where you would see him going next summer, Seth?

I'm not Seth but the time frame sounds about right.  The TJ surgery was in March so the earliest he'll start throwing is around April which gives him about a June/July clock to begin game action as long as there are no setbacks.  I'm not expecting the world when he first returns as the Twins will likely treat him with kidgloves, could be an AFL guy to get more innings at the end of 2016.

[clutterheart]

 

I'm not Seth but the time frame sounds about right.  The TJ surgery was in March so the earliest he'll start throwing is around April which gives him about a June/July clock to begin game action as long as there are no setbacks.  I'm not expecting the world when he first returns as the Twins will likely treat him with kidgloves, could be an AFL guy to get more innings at the end of 2016.

 

I think he will stay in Extended Spring than go to GCL-Twins so he is close to the facility.  If all goes right, he might be in Cedar Rapids around Late July.  I think he would end his season there and to me it would be surprising if he is sent to the AFL in 2017.    He is young and he needs to be kept in bubble wrap.

I don't think it will be until 2017 until he is ready to start advancing.  2017 he would start at FM and end the year at AA.  Then to the AFL if he still needs innings

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

In total agreement with how high of a ceiling I see Thorpe having.  Expect he will be throwing in extended spring training and join either Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers in June.  Is that where you would see him going next summer, Seth?

 

Tough question... I mean, he had his surgery a little earlier in the year than Randy Rosario and he was back with Cedar Rapids by mid-June (without looking).  I would think that'd be the same plan for Thorpe. Most of me thinks Cedar Rapids, but if he's throwing well in EST, maybe they'd keep him in FM.

[DJL44]

I agree. If Thorpe comes back healthy he could be a top 3 prospect.

 

I think Felix Jorge is underrated also.

[Thrylos]

Did not mention him earlier, because I am not thinking him as a prospect, since he made it to The Show.

 

If I had to pick a single breakout player, it would be Alex Meyer.   Hope he makes TRs job very difficult this Spring and Summer.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I'm going with Lewis Thorpe. No clue at what point he'll be throwing in games again

I really like Thorpe, but I think we will be saying this all about him in 2 years, not next year. I am guessing that they will be cautious with him, and that it might take a while for him to get back on track.

 

But, I agree that this kid has unreal talent and potential to be a beast. Much more than the pitchers listed in this original post. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Its a few years away from happening so not worried about it.    I really didn't like the way Dozier looked the second half last year so maybe Polanco will be the guy the others have to beat out.    BTW, I assume Gordon is slated as the leadoff hitter of the future so I don't care if he adds power or not.  He needs to get on base.

I am hoping that he has #2 lineup potential, where he can hit 12-15 HR's, but would be pleased with a leadoff hitter who gets on at a .350 OBP and steals 20+ basses.

[DocBauer]

While it may sound surprising...and I like the above list...I am going with Kennys Vargas. I believe he is still only 25 until August. He is a BIG man, but his bat has always seemed solid, not just all or nothing. All reports have always indicated he is a hard worker, and from what I have seen, his 1B defense isn't really all that bad.

 

Despite all his rep for power and comparisons to his mentor Big Papi, he has yet to crack the 20 HR mark. Unless the unexpected happens, he will not begin the season in the bigs. That might relieve some pressure, and just let him play. Unless circumstances propel him to the SHOW, we could/should see 45-50 XB hits for Rochester with an impressive AVG and OB.

 

As stated elsewhere, I believe there will be a point where we are discussing how to make room for him.

[Boone]

First of all, I have a hard time considering a guy like Gordon (who was a top draft pick and impressed in his rookie year) a breakout prospect.  Same goes for someone like Gonsalves or Walker--it's easy to argue that they've already had their "breakout" year.  Someone like Kohl Stewart, on the other hand, could be considered a breakout candidate because he has struggled to date as a professional.

 

I have a couple guys in mind.  For older players, Travis Harrison and Levi Michael.  I expected Harrison to breakout last year after a strong end to the 2014 season.  While he struggled in 2015, his plate discipline improved markedly in the 2nd half (he walked more, struck out less, and saw his BB:K ratio increase from .50 to .87).  I'm hoping that he builds off that success and the raw power he displayed in high school finally appears.  Levi Michael has fallen off most people's lists due to early struggles and an inability to stay healthy.  However, the last few years he's played quite well, albeit in small sample sizes: he posted a 124 wRC+ in A+ in 2014 and a 131 wRC+ in AA in 2015.  Plus, he's quietly become a pretty good basestealer: 55 steals in 339 games at an 83% success rate in his career (that's 26 SB per 162 games).  If he can stay healthy this season, his performance in AA and AAA could merit an Opening Day gig in 2017 (although he would most likely be blocked by Polanco and Dozier).

 

For younger players, I have my eyes on Lachlan Wells and Engelb Vielma. Wells was pretty dominant in the GCL in 2015 (9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 2.09 ERA).  2016 might be a bit premature for his breakout year, as he might not taste full season ball.  But I expect him to put up great numbers again and make most top prospect lists following the season.  I've written about Vielma before: he showed great improvements in the 2nd half of 2015 and has become an excellent basestealer.  If he can carry that success over to 2016 and be a league average hitter in AA as a 22 year old, he should be a top 10 organizational prospect.

[Thegrin]

Luke Bard. He is back pitching. He has great bloodlines.  Everyone has forgotten him.

Sounds like a breakout candidate to me. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, just about everyone here is either unknown or has a high ceiling with some flaws. I could see any of them breaking out, all of them, or none of them. If I had a pick to click, I'd say that Walker, Harrison, Michael, and Gordon will all make some pretty big strides forward as hitters.

 

I'm a bit more skeptical on pitching. Not sure if I'd call Gonsalves a breakout candidate (considering how good he was last year), but I could see him coming out firing bullets in A+ to start given that he wasn't bad there in his first taste of it last season. I think Meyer and Thorpe are the ones that will be pleasant surprises.