Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Initially I was not a Tommy fan but after what he did when they dropped him to AAA and then up to MLB I became a big Tommy fan.  I think he has earned his place in the rotation and yes it is nice to have a lefty arm.

 

I think this Milone, May debate comes down to depth and how the Twins want to use said depth.  If I was a GM I would want to try and build or continue to build the value of the guys I brought in via FA.  So yes I would start the season with the vets give them a 4 to 5 start leash and re-evaluate from there.

 

I can come up with all kinds of numbers to create positive and negative scenario's but I think in the end you have to give the vets first crack.  What if Nolasco pitches great this coming year?  What if Hughes has a huge bounce back year?  What is Santana is unhitable out of the gate?  We don't know how these guys are going to perform until they start.  

 

If they start off badly then yeah look at moving Hughes to the pen.  Replace Nolasco etc.  Move May back to the starting rotation.  If the older vets get hurt or are ineffective then the plan B's can come in to play.  

 

In my mind we are going to need all the pitching we can get and if we don't then that means the old guys are doing just fine.  I don't care where they put May as long as we are winning.  If we aren't then the FO needs to be ready to be on the hot seat because I believe we do have younger better options.

 

I agree that this probably more a depth thing than anything, but I'm not sure I like it. They have depth. Duffey has options, and with the rotation as currently constructed, he's probably in AAA (which I'm not terribly against personally). Berrios is in the wings, and you have Rogers, Dean, and even possibly Meyer who could come up and start. I think the days of Andrew Albers starting are (fortunately) over, even if Milone gets traded.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The more I think about this, what bothers me the most is that this is really a short term decision (and not even a very good one).  Milone has 3 years left of arbitration. I don't know the estimates, but I'm guessing his payout looks something like this:  4.5, 7, 10.  I think this estimate is on the conservative side, but going year to year, he's basically going to be a Twin for 3/21 or something close to that. 3/21 will get you a heck of a reliever, probably one who is as good as what we think May can do in the pen. 

 

Don't get me wrong, 3/21 for a pitcher who has done what Tommy has done is not a bad deal either. It's probably quite tradable given that the cash isn't even guaranteed should something happen.  The Twins really could get the best of both worlds. They could trade Tommy for a couple top 150-200 type prospects sitting in the low minors (which given how top heavy their system is at the moment, this would be a good thing), sign a good reliever for the money saved, and let May start. They might even be able to fetch 1 top 100 prospect (though I wouldn't hold my breath on that one). 

 

In the end, I think the team is better off now and long term in that scenario. Tommy may not be high demand, but he's good enough that plenty of teams would be very happy to have him in the back of their rotation.

[Boom Boom]

I'm reading the responses here and somehow the discussion became "Who should be in the bullpen - Milone or May." As if Milone to the rotation means May to the bullpen or vice versa.

 

There are two reasons that May would be put in the bullpen and neither involve Tommy Milone.

1. Lack of bullpen options. This goes without saying, although there are free agents to be had and trades that could be made.

2. Ricky Nolasco's contract. The Twins would tell you that they're paying Nolasco too much money to not start him. I think we can (probably) agree that Nolasco is the weak link in the rotation, not Milone.

[TheLeviathan]

If the Twins go out and acquire 3 relievers equal to or better than what I expect from May, great.  Put May in the rotation.

 

Since they're not going to do that, I think May to the pen is likely the best of the available choices.

They need 3? May is somehow equal to three other people?

 

You've been cheerleading May there for awhile, the truth is tht you've decided you saw enough in 25 starts.

[Nick Nelson]

 

2. Ricky Nolasco's contract. The Twins would tell you that they're paying Nolasco too much money to not start him. I think we can (probably) agree that Nolasco is the weak link in the rotation, not Milone.

I see Nolasco as part of a separate discussion. IMO he's keeping the Berrios spot warm. Start Nolasco in the rotation, Berrios in AAA. Once Berrios passes the service clock deadline that extends his control by a year (late April), if Nolasco hasn't impressed in his first handful of starts, call up Berrios and push Nolasco to long relief. If Nolasco is looking good, then Berrios is first in line as an injury/performance replacement, assuming he's getting it done in Rochester.

[USAFChief]

 

They need 3? May is somehow equal to three other people?

You've been cheerleading May there for awhile, the truth is tht you've decided you saw enough in 25 starts.

First, I think the Twins need 3 bullpen arms equal to or better than May.  May is one of the three.  As I said, if they fill those three necessary reliever spots from elsewhere, I'd be fine with May in the Rotation.

 

Second, the truth is I've seen enough of May in the bullpen to believe he'll be an asset there.  Actually the real  "Truth" is, neither of us has seen enough of May to be 100 percent certain of his capabilities in either the rotation or the pen.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Don't get me wrong, 3/21 for a pitcher who has done what Tommy has done is not a bad deal either.

 

ERA does not tell the whole story.   Here are career numbers of 4 Twins' SPs:

 

Milone: ERA 3.92, FIP 4.30, xFIP 4.22, SIERA  4.23, K% 16.9
Liriano: ERA 3.97, FIP 3.55, xFIP 3.51, SIERA  3.64, K% 24.3
Bonser: ERA 5.18, FIP 4.55, xFIP 4.24, SIERA  4.15, K% 18.2
Diamond: ERA 4.43, FIP 4.46, xFIP 4.33, SIERA  4.57, K% 10.9

 

I'd argue that Milone is much closer to Bonser and Diamond (even though better than the latter) than Liriano.

 

Who would give Bonser (or Diamond) a 3/$21 contact?

 

Also: The 5th spot of the rotation is perfect for minimum wage players.  Ideally, if the Twins have any sense, that would be a spot rotating among the hottest AAA SPs.  Get them up, let them pitch until they cool off, get them down.  Rinse.  Repeat. Keep the other 4 starters on a 5 day schedule (do not give them extra days of rest) and the 5th spot will pitch in about 20 games or so...

 

Much better way to spend that $ in a team with apparent holes.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Second, the truth is I've seen enough of May in the bullpen to believe he'll be an asset there.  Actually the real  "Truth" is, neither of us has seen enough of May to be 100 percent certain of his capabilities in either the rotation or the pen.

 

Absolutely - which is why he should still be pitching where he can do the most good.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

ERA does not tell the whole story.   Here are career numbers of 4 Twins' SPs:

 

Milone: ERA 3.92, FIP 4.30, xFIP 4.22, SIERA  4.23, K% 16.9
Liriano: ERA 3.97, FIP 3.55, xFIP 3.51, SIERA  3.64, K% 24.3
Bonser: ERA 5.18, FIP 4.55, xFIP 4.24, SIERA  4.15, K% 18.2
Diamond: ERA 4.43, FIP 4.46, xFIP 4.33, SIERA  4.57, K% 10.9

 

I'd argue that Milone is much closer to Bonser and Diamond (even though better than the latter) than Liriano.

 

Who would give Bonser (or Diamond) a 3/$21 contact?

 

Also: The 5th spot of the rotation is perfect for minimum wage players.  Ideally, if the Twins have any sense, that would be a spot rotating among the hottest AAA SPs.  Get them up, let them pitch until they cool off, get them down.  Rinse.  Repeat. Keep the other 4 starters on a 5 day schedule (do not give them extra days of rest) and the 5th spot will pitch in about 20 games or so...

 

Much better way to spend that $ in a team with apparent holes.

 

I'm not sure if we are arguing or not   I wasn't really comparing Tommy to Liriano, Boof, or Diamond for that matter. Milone has 600 innings of ML experience saying he can maintain this level of production.  Nothing flashy, I know, but he gets the job done. I don't know why it works but it does. What I'm saying though is that someone would be happy to take Milone at a non-guaranteed 3/21 and probably trade some prospects to do it. Take the money saved, go get a really good reliever (might have to add a 4th year in there) and move May into Milone's spot and the team as a whole is better off.

[Boom Boom]

I see Nolasco as part of a separate discussion. IMO he's keeping the Berrios spot warm. Start Nolasco in the rotation, Berrios in AAA. Once Berrios passes the service clock deadline that extends his control by a year (late April), if Nolasco hasn't impressed in his first handful of starts, call up Berrios and push Nolasco to long relief. If Nolasco is looking good, then Berrios is first in line as an injury/performance replacement, assuming he's getting it done in Rochester.

If you take the dearth of bullpen arms out of the equation, the guy who is blocking May from a rotation spot is by definition the fifth best guy in the rotation.

 

That may be a moot point if your (and the Twins') plan is for May to be a reliever long-term, as in for the rest of his Twins career.

[Dantes929]

 

I'm not sure if we are arguing or not   I wasn't really comparing Tommy to Liriano, Boof, or Diamond for that matter. Milone has 600 innings of ML experience saying he can maintain this level of production.  Nothing flashy, I know, but he gets the job done. I don't know why it works but it does. 

The reason it works is what is lost in all of these conversations.   Milone knows how to pitch.   He does it with good control but also good stuff even though it doesn't involve high velocity.   The problem here is that people think all 89mph pitchers are the same.   They are most definitely not.  Here is my hierarchy.

1.  Guys with great stuff including velocity that know how to pitch.

2.  Guys with great stuff without velocity that know how to pitch.

3.  Guys with great stuff including veloicty.

4.  Guys with stuff without velocity.

5.  Guys with just great velocity.

Huge qualifier is what I said before.  No pitchers are alike which means that there are lots of variations within these categories.  

[Dantes929]

 

Some are saying Milone is fine because he's our 5th starter.  Fine.  But I thought Nolasco was our fifth starter.  Let's just say, we have a lot of options for 3rd-5th starter.  At some point we have to look at the rotation and say some are bad for the spot in the rotation they are slotted. We can't just say these pitchers are okay cause they are our fifth starters.  Only one guy can fill each spot in the rotation.

 

And no, the talent in this rotation is not very good.  I read that somewhere in here and, no.  Not at all.

If we trot out the right guys I am fine with the talent though would not go so far as to say very good.   I think the disconnect is what people consider to be the 5th starter.     As pointed out earlier there are a lot of teams where Milone's performance would have been closer to a 3 including a few playoff teams.   If the previous poster was correct in saying the AVERAGE ERA for a starter was 4.11/  That means there are  A LOT of guys that are on the wrong side of 4.11 and by a fair amount.    Milone  settles in quite nicely as a league average #3 guy.     Duffey and Gibson did better than him and we consider Santana and May and maybe Hughes to be better and of course Nolasco wasn't signed because he was thought of as a #5 talent.    If Milone ends up being the #5 guy it means we have a very good #5 guy.    If we have 5 #3 guys then that will be average.    If we have 2 #2 guys along with 3 #3 guys then we will have a much better than average staff.     I can imagine that with this group of guys and yes I can imagine it better  with May in the rotation.    I like your take on slotting but our weakness was in the #1 and #2 spots.   Our strength should be in our #3-5 spots.   

[jorgenswest]

ERA does not tell the whole story.   Here are career numbers of 4 Twins' SPs:

 

Milone: ERA 3.92, FIP 4.30, xFIP 4.22, SIERA  4.23, K% 16.9

Liriano: ERA 3.97, FIP 3.55, xFIP 3.51, SIERA  3.64, K% 24.3

Bonser: ERA 5.18, FIP 4.55, xFIP 4.24, SIERA  4.15, K% 18.2

Diamond: ERA 4.43, FIP 4.46, xFIP 4.33, SIERA  4.57, K% 10.9

 

I'd argue that Milone is much closer to Bonser and Diamond (even though better than the latter) than Liriano.

 

Who would give Bonser (or Diamond) a 3/$21 contact?

 .

No one would. If Diamond had 3 years and over 500 innings of 2012 performance he would be worthy of that contract.

 

At some point performance becomes important. The better ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. At that point ERA does a very good job of describing performance. Neither Bonsor or Diamond reached that level because they could not sustain performance for multiple years. Bonsor also has 51 relief appearances in his data. I would hope no one in the Twins front office would think they are good comps for Milone in projecting future performance.

[Kwak]

 

The reason it works is what is lost in all of these conversations.   Milone knows how to pitch.   He does it with good control but also good stuff even though it doesn't involve high velocity.   The problem here is that people think all 89mph pitchers are the same.   They are most definitely not.  Here is my hierarchy.

1.  Guys with great stuff including velocity that know how to pitch.

2.  Guys with great stuff without velocity that know how to pitch.

3.  Guys with great stuff including veloicty.

4.  Guys with stuff without velocity.

5.  Guys with just great velocity.

Huge qualifier is what I said before.  No pitchers are alike which means that there are lots of variations within these categories.  

I decided to finish your point:

 

6..  Guys who don't belong in categories 1-5--Twins Pitchers.

[jimmer]

 

No one would. If Diamond had 3 years and over 500 innings of 2012 performance he would be worthy of that contract.

At some point performance becomes important. The better ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. At that point ERA does a very good job of describing performance. Neither Bonsor or Diamond reached that level because they could not sustain performance for multiple years. Bonsor also has 51 relief appearances in his data. I would hope no one in the Twins front office would think they are good comps for Milone in projecting future performance.

Is it your contention that ERA is the stat that best gauges performance of a pitcher?

[thegambler]

I want to know why we are having these discussions without considering Alex Meyer for the rotation. The Twins are RUINING Meyer. His numbers were solid as a starter in the minors, and he had upside. So what do the Twins do? Move him to the bullpen, where his numbers were horrendous as a reliever. Now, he's an afterthought?

[Thrylos]

 

 Neither Bonsor or Diamond reached that level because they could not sustain performance for multiple years. Bonsor also has 51 relief appearances in his data. I would hope no one in the Twins front office would think they are good comps for Milone in projecting future performance.

 

I hope that they bring up those 2 when they will be discussing arbitration, though

 

[jorgenswest]

Is it your contention that ERA is the stat that best gauges performance of a pitcher?

At 500 innings there isn't a better gauge. It takes three full seasons of starting to get to that point. At 200 innings, SIERA is a little better at estimating future ERA than FIP and xFIP and significantly better than ERA. Short of 200, none are very reliable.

 

That Milone has maintained the performance for 600 innings is significant and sets him far apart from Diamond. In 2012 they had identical 3.93 FIPs and future projections based on that performance would be similar. Milone backed it up with 400 more innings of performance and Diamond did not. There is no comparison any longer.

[jorgenswest]

I want to know why we are having these discussions without considering Alex Meyer for the rotation. The Twins are RUINING Meyer. His numbers were solid as a starter in the minors, and he had upside. So what do the Twins do? Move him to the bullpen, where his numbers were horrendous as a reliever. Now, he's an afterthought?

I echo and add that his FIP was very good last year and the early BABIP of .420 was not in line with his career and had to mess with his head.

[Twodogs]

 

I want to know why we are having these discussions without considering Alex Meyer for the rotation. The Twins are RUINING Meyer. His numbers were solid as a starter in the minors, and he had upside. So what do the Twins do? Move him to the bullpen, where his numbers were horrendous as a reliever. Now, he's an afterthought?

I like Meyer and I hope he becomes a stud, but the reason he has stunk it up as a reliever is because he doesn't consistently throw strikes.  Yeah hes got tons of velocity, but MLB hitters aren't swinging at crap 3 feet out of the zone.  I really don't think he'd do any better as a starter as wild as he is.  Once he gets under control he will definitely become a major part of the conversation.

[jimmer]

Meyer in 2014: 3.52 ERA, WHIP 1.381 WHIP and 4.4 BB/9 IP.  Those are not solid numbers.

Meyer in 2015: Started out as a starter and had to be converted to a reliever.  

 

AAA numbers: 4.05 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 IP.

 

Face it, he's not meant to be a MLB starter.  He might not even be good enough to be a MLB reliever.

[by jiminy]

 

Here is the argument:

May SP > Milone SP

May RP >>>>>>> Milone RP

 

That has always been the argument to me, too -- until I looked at the stats Nick posted above. According to the numbers, May is NOT a better SP than Milone. And not just the third time throught he rotation, when he gives up a .907 OPS, which should give anyone pause, even his biggest fans. He's not even better the FIRST time through the rotation.

 

Does he have more upside? Sure. Given his age its fair to weight his last starts more, which were extraordinary. But more upside does not necessarily mean more production. A near sure thing like Milone is very, very valuable. Especially at his price, which is low. You need to look not just at value but value to salary ratio, and Milone is a big plus there.

 

Given that his trade value is low, too, I hope they don't dump Milone just to make room in the rotation for May. The numbers say that could weaken both the bullpen AND the roation.

 

This reminds me of when the Tigers dumped Fister, because they didn't need him. You can never have too much pitching. The only reason to trade someone is if they bring back someone you need even more. I don't see that happening with Milone.

 

That said, you only have so many roster spots, so I'm not going to second guess them if he's the guy to go. I just wouldn't be in any hurry, that's all.

[jimmer]

Ok, for me it's not about May versus Milone (because I think May should bump all but maybe one of our starters), but how did Milone outperform May as a starter?

 

May had the better FIP, more Ks per 9 IP, less walks per 9 IP, less HR/9 IP and better HR/FB% (all while having a much higher BABIP which likely goes down). May, as a starter, had more WAR as a starter too even though he started seven less games. In fact, it's likely that the only reason May didn't have the most WAR of any starter on the team is because he had about half as many starts as Pelfrey and Gibson.

Edited December 26, 2015 by jimmer

[howieramone2]

 

Christ, why don't they just trade May then?

If someone considered him to be a 2-3 starter or a future closer, no doubt TR would trade him. Believe both May and Kepler are all but off the table, due to their versatility. I posted on another thread, Berrios and Polanco would be the first to go.

Edited December 26, 2015 by howieramone2

[jokin]

 

This is spot on and what has frustrated me.  Somehow Milone is a lock for the rotation and May is the odd man out.  I just don't get it 

 

 

 

Follow the $$$$, tobi.  Think how much Ryan saves when May first goes to arbitration in 2018 if he stays in the pen for the next two seasons.

[jokin]

Meyer in 2014: 3.52 ERA, WHIP 1.381 WHIP and 4.4 BB/9 IP.  Those are not solid numbers.

 

Face it, he's not meant to be a MLB starter.  He might not even be good enough to be a MLB reliever.

 

You've cherry-picked some numbers here- his not just solid, but dominating numbers deserve equal mention in order to make the full evaluation of Meyer's potential.    Let's not forget, that he was on everybody's Top 10-Top 30+ prospect lists, going into 2015.

 

IE-

Meyer led AAA baseball SPs in 2014 in

K/9 (10.54),

K% (27.15%) and

K%-BB% (15.8%)....

by wide margins....

to the second place SP finisher in each category.

 

He ranked 4th overall in OBA @ .236...

whereas, even with that low batting average, his

 

BABIP was 7th highest overall @ .321-

that's a lot of bad luck and bad fielding, and further indication that he wasn't just "solid", but a dominating International League SP. And forget about assuming that Meyer must have been subject to the gopher ball to inflate the ERA...

 

His HR/9 ratio was a paltry 0.69...

ranked 13th best among IL SPs.

 

 

And also obviously, the aforementioned WHIP and ERA, while certainly being inflated by the higher BB% were offset by the ridiculously high K/9, along with

 

the lowest LD% (15.9%) in the IL and

6th best GB% (45.3%).

 

Let's face it, the kid has (had?) some pretty unhittable stuff. Kind of the epitome of the term, "effectively wild".

 

The previous poster was right, Meyer's 2014 performance contained the numbers of an absolute blooming, yet wild, SP stud. Something(s) went severely off the rails since then- only assigning the percentages of blame for what has transpired since then remain to still be meted out.

Edited December 27, 2015 by jokin

[adorduan]

 

You've cherry-picked some numbers here- his not just solid, but dominating numbers deserve equal mention in order to make the full evaluation of Meyer's potential.    Let's not forget, that he was on everybody's Top 10-Top 30+ prospect lists, going into 2015.

 

IE-

Meyer led AAA baseball SPs in 2014 in

K/9 (10.54),

K% (27.15%) and

K%-BB% (15.8%)....

by wide margins....

to the second place SP finisher in each category.

 

He ranked 4th overall in OBA @ .236...

whereas, even with that low batting average, his

 

BABIP was 7th highest overall @ .321-

that's a lot of bad luck and bad fielding, and further indication that he wasn't just "solid", but a dominating International League SP. And forget about assuming that Meyer must have been subject to the gopher ball to inflate the ERA...

 

His HR/9 ratio was a paltry 0.69...

ranked 13th best among IL SPs.

 

 

And also obviously, the aforementioned WHIP and ERA, while certainly being inflated by the higher BB% were offset by the ridiculously high K/9, along with

 

the lowest LD% (15.9%) in the IL and

6th best GB% (45.3%).

 

Let's face it, the kid has (had?) some pretty unhittable stuff.

 

The previous poster was right, Meyer's 2014 performance contained the numbers of an absolute blooming, yet wild, SP stud. Something(s) went severely off the rails since then- only assigning the percentages of blame for what has transpired since then remain to still be meted out.

So, let's hear it.  Who's to blame?

[Twodogs]

 

So, let's hear it.  Who's to blame?

I dont think anyone is to blame.  He's is really really tall, has had some difficulties with mechanics because of it, and when he figures it out, if he does, he will be extremely tough to hit.  Randy Johnson took forever to figure out how to stay within the strike zone most likely because of his height and whatnot.  But he became a hall of famer.  Not saying that Meyer is the next hall of fame pitcher for the Twins, but that it can be just getting it all dialed in and then he could be really tough.  I hope he does, whether its next year or the year after that or whenever, whether its as a starter or a dominant reliever he has great stuff.  He just hasn't shown that he is there yet, hope he figures it out soon, if he does we will all be on his bandwagon.

[Penthang]

I feel like the only reason that folks are unhappy with the idea of Milone in the rotation is because it seems to be comeing at the expense of May being in the rotation. If the twins hadn't locked themselves into the contracts with Santana, Nolasco, and Hughes it wouldn't be an issue and we would be glad to see him in the rotation. Wow when they're pitching at their best I'd like to see either Santana, Hughes, or maybe even Nolasco in the rotation, having all of them in the rotation is blocking young talent. While it may not be a popular sentiment I would probably rather see him alone in the rotation than Gibson. That said, I am eager to see what some of the Twins young, high upside talent has to offer, and I'm sure we will because there is a good chance that the "projected" starting rotation will not all leave spring training in good health and ready to pitch. If they do, there are worse problems for the Twins to have.

[Thrylos]

 

So, let's hear it.  Who's to blame?

 

The one who got booted:   The AAA Pitching coach.