Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone

[Tom Froemming]

 

In 2012, Milone made 31 starts for a playoff team and started Game 2 in the ALDS, tossing 6 innings of one-run ball against a high-powered Detroit offense.

 

 

That's an oversimplification. As the splits in this article show, Milone is a guy who gets better as he settles in and finds his groove. That's the case for a lot of pitchers with his type of profile. 

Nick Blackburn gave up one run over 5 2/3 in his only career playoff start. Also a Game 2, also against a high-powered offense ('09 Yankees), so ...

 

I think it's pretty unreasonable to think Milone's numbers would get worse in the pen. Here are a dozen LHPs who have performed much better in relief than as starters in no particular order:

 

Oliver Perez: 3.67 ERA in the pen vs. 4.58 starting

Zach Duke: 3.32 vs. 4.61

Tom Gorzelanny: 3.45 vs. 4.62

J.P. Howell: 2.64 vs. 6.34

Brian Duensing: 3.63 vs. 4.57

Will Smith: 3.07 vs. 5.48

Zach Britton: 1.72 vs. 4.86

Brian Matusz: 3.16 vs. 5.51

Brett Cecil: 2.85 vs. 4.77

Glen Perkins: 2.95 vs. 5.06

Travis Wood: 2.71 vs. 4.19

Andrew Miller: 3.02 vs. 5.70

 

ERA isn't the end all be all of pitching stats, but these are big splits and most of these guys have good sized samples as both starters and relievers. I understand some these guys' skill sets differ dramatically from Milone. I just don't understand why anyone thinks he couldn't hold his own as a middle reliever.

 

And I wouldn't necessarily say Milone settles into a groove. I'd say either he has a feel for his pitches that day or not. When he doesn't have his feel, he doesn't last long enough to face a lineup a full second or third time through.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Arguments used to help predict future performance in baseball aren't like mathematical proofs in the sense that they are proven false in light of a single counter-example. It can still be true that times-through-the-order splits matter for predicting bullpen performance for the majority of pitchers even if Glen Perkins (and dozens of others) appear to be the opposite.

 

In your opinion, are there any indicators that will help us predict how well a starter like Milone will transition to a relief role? Or are they all just "false arguments", and instead we should just assume that every single starting pitcher will be a relief-ace when moved to the bullpen?

 

I'm not asking for it to be a mathematical proof, but if you're going to cite his ability to be about the same in innings 4-6 as he is 1-3, you should maybe fact check whether that is a trend worth even mentioning.  Just, off the top of your head, pull up the stats of 12 good relievers that began as starters and I bet you'll find the majority struggled in their first three innings.  It's the case for Perkins, Wade Davis, and many others.  This isn't about stuff playing up early and then being found out for most of these guys, the truth is that a move to the bullpen is usually somewhat transformative for guys.  So I'm not sure using their stats as a starter is all that reliable.

 

Here's what we know: Milone is pretty good against both righties and lefties and last year he was electric against lefties.  A guy that can do that is a pretty handy dude to have as a 7th inning guy.  If he gets a velocity uptick there is no reason to believe he can't be Gorzelanny, Duke, or Brett Cecil if he moves down.  

 

He doesn't have to be a bullpen phenom, he just has to be pretty good and I think there is every reason to believe he can because, well, he's a pretty good pitcher.  May has potential to be better than that and the only two arguments anybody is using to defend the move are:  1) We need him (a really awful argument, since this is freaking fixable. Even now!) and 2) He hasn't been that great....in 25 freaking starts.  An argument I hope I don't have to take down because of how preposterously unfair it is to a developing young player.

[h2oface]

 

The rotation without May is still very good (not said often for the Twins).

 

I certainly can't say "very good", nor can I support it with the most recent year's stat lines if I could say it . It might even be a stretch to say league average.

Edited December 23, 2015 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

 

So, no, Milhone isn't sexy (or great!)--

 

Is there an inside joke or reason for Milhone instead of Milone? Just curious.... I noticed that you use an alternate spelling consistently, and wonder if I am missing something.....

[DaveW]

 

I'm not asking for it to be a mathematical proof, but if you're going to cite his ability to be about the same in innings 4-6 as he is 1-3, you should maybe fact check whether that is a trend worth even mentioning.  Just, off the top of your head, pull up the stats of 12 good relievers that began as starters and I bet you'll find the majority struggled in their first three innings.  It's the case for Perkins, Wade Davis, and many others.  This isn't about stuff playing up early and then being found out for most of these guys, the truth is that a move to the bullpen is usually somewhat transformative for guys.  So I'm not sure using their stats as a starter is all that reliable.

 

Here's what we know: Milone is pretty good against both righties and lefties and last year he was electric against lefties.  A guy that can do that is a pretty handy dude to have as a 7th inning guy.  If he gets a velocity uptick there is no reason to believe he can't be Gorzelanny, Duke, or Brett Cecil if he moves down.  

 

He doesn't have to be a bullpen phenom, he just has to be pretty good and I think there is every reason to believe he can because, well, he's a pretty good pitcher.  May has potential to be better than that and the only two arguments anybody is using to defend the move are:  1) We need him (a really awful argument, since this is freaking fixable. Even now!) and 2) He hasn't been that great....in 25 freaking starts.  An argument I hope I don't have to take down because of how preposterously unfair it is to a developing young player.

Sadly I think the main reason why the Twins are going with Milone over May is due to money.

 

It's absurd to think this would be the reason, but the Twins seem to have operated like this in the past (See: Pelfrey)

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sadly I think the main reason why the Twins are going with Milone over May is due to money.

 

It's absurd to think this would be the reason, but the Twins seem to have operated like this in the past (See: Pelfrey)

 

I don't think it's money.  I think it's a bizarre feeling that they HAVE to have a lefty in the rotation.

[Don Walcott]

 

I agree, I'm not labeling him at all and I think he can improve, but IIRC it wasn't just inconsistency with May, it seemed like every start he never made it past 6. (Could be wrong)

 

I want May over Milone in the rotation as well, but "ability to go deep" isn't one of the things May has over Milone at this stage.

I was going to criticize May for not going deep in another thread, but looking at his performance game-by-game, by the time they decided to put him in the pen, he was showing the ability to go deeper into games.  With small sample size and improvement, I though I'd be roundly criticized on this site for taking that position.  Milone for his career goes less than 6 per game.  Even in his best year, he only went 6.1 per game.  Last year he went 5.6 per game.  I think it's pretty safe to predict he'll need a lot of bullpen help, and I believe May will do better than that.

 

I understand that we'd all like to have the Royals' bullpen, but that's not easy to do.  The only franchise that has been able to do this consistently for a long time is the Yankees.  I think the Twins should model themselves after the Indians and the Astros, whose bullpens were among the best at least partly because they had to pitch the least.

[Kwak]

 

Is there an inside joke or reason for Milhone instead of Milone? Just curious.... I noticed that you use an alternate spelling consistently, and wonder if I am missing something.....

No.

 

Sadly I think the main reason why the Twins are going with Milone over May is due to money.

 

It's absurd to think this would be the reason, but the Twins seem to have operated like this in the past (See: Pelfrey)

Instead of:  May really isn't better than Milone as a starting pitcher?  Instead of braying "...only 25 starts...", consider most pitchers don't get that long of a leash--especially after the 2014 that May produced; May projects as a "shut-down" short-relief pitcher, maybe even future closer; Milone is likely best utilized exactly where is at--back of the rotation starter.  

If that concept yields a lower payroll?--so be it--it's not a bad outcome.  Plus any saved money can be used elsewhere.

[jimmer]

Speaking just for myself,  it's got nothing to do with Malone.  I think going into the 2016 season, May could have been our second best starter, and perhaps our best starter. I'm not a big fan of pitchers with Malone's skill set, but he's managed to get results, so that's a good thing.

[USAFChief]

I don't think it's money. I think it's a bizarre feeling that they HAVE to have a lefty in the rotation.

my guess is it's the belief among some Twins brass that May won't prove much better than Milone in the rotation, but May will likely be a much better bullpen piece than Milone. May's stuff plays up better in the pen.

 

I do agree money isn't the issue, they're paying the same for both no matter the usage.

[jimmer]

Some are saying Milone is fine because he's our 5th starter.  Fine.  But I thought Nolasco was our fifth starter.  Let's just say, we have a lot of options for 3rd-5th starter.  At some point we have to look at the rotation and say some are bad for the spot in the rotation they are slotted. We can't just say these pitchers are okay cause they are our fifth starters.  Only one guy can fill each spot in the rotation.

 

And no, the talent in this rotation is not very good.  I read that somewhere in here and, no.  Not at all.

[Thrylos]

 

. I'm not a big fan of pitchers with Malone's skill set, but he's managed to get results, so that's a good thing.

 

And results Malone got:

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EUucGyY0jvo/TpUAlh8M_HI/AAAAAAAAMsU/iYK1wvvO7JE/s1600/Karl+Malone4.jpg

[Thrylos]

 

 

Some are saying Milone is fine because he's our 5th starter.  Fine.  But I thought Nolasco was our fifth starter.  Let's just say, we have a lot of options for 3rd-5th starter. 

 

That's the total issue here.  The Twins have been hoarding back of the rotation starters.  They have about 8 of them.   The problem is that they maybe have one or two top of the rotation starters, and those guys are in the minors...

[jimmer]

My bad, I meant Milone. :-)

[jimmer]

 

That's the total issue here.  The Twins have been hoarding back of the rotation starters.  They have about 8 of them.   The problem is that they maybe have one or two top of the rotation starters, and those guys are in the minors...

One might be in the pen ;-)

[ashbury]

My memory of a "typical Glen Perkins start"

One doesn't have to go with memory. He was a starter for the big club only two years, 2008 and 2009. The "splits" feature on baseball-reference.com tells the ERAs for these two years. Your memory is correct for 2008, with him showing good results until inning 6 when the clock seemingly struck midnight and he became instantly a pumpkin. But in 2009, after which point the braintrust apparently pulled the plug, he was the opposite way:

 

1st inning - 11.34

2nd inning - 7.80

3rd inning - 5.40

4th inning - 2.40

5th inning - 5.40

6th inning - 4.35

 

2010 he had only 1 start but still was no overnight success, with a season ERA as a reliever of 5.29 in short duty in the majors.

[Thrylos]

 

One might be in the pen ;-)

 

Yeah.  No kidding...

[Thrylos]

 

 

One doesn't have to go with memory. He was a starter for the big club only two years, 2008 and 2009. The "splits" feature on baseball-reference.com tells the ERAs for these two years. Your memory is correct for 2008, with him showing good results until inning 6 when the clock seemingly struck midnight and he became instantly a pumpkin. But in 2009, after which point the braintrust apparently pulled the plug, he was the opposite way:

 

1st inning - 11.34

2nd inning - 7.80

3rd inning - 5.40

4th inning - 2.40

5th inning - 5.40

6th inning - 4.35

 

2010 he had only 1 start but still was no overnight success, with a season ERA as a reliever of 5.29 in short duty in the majors.

 

If you asked Glen about this, I am pretty sure that he will say that it was all the Catchers' fault.

 

And Perkins and Milone are 2 totally different pitchers.  Nobody can accuse Perkins of being a junk throwing lefty, which is what Milone is.

 

What made Perkins a decent late inning reliever is abandoning the curve and change and becoming a 2 pitch pitcher (FB, SL.)   Last season the Slider did not slide that much, which was a problem.

[jorgenswest]

Side note on using splits by inning or times faced.

 

In the first inning starters are guaranteed to see the best the other team has to offer. The data is skewed by the batters faced.

 

As for third time around the lineup, the data is also significantly biased. Pitchers will often make 2+ times around the lineup. The split for third time around will be heavily skewed with many plate appearances from the top of the line up and few plate appearances from the bottom.

 

Generalizations and conclusions should not be made about a pitcher's ability to go deep in games or his ability to be strong in the first inning use these splits.

[adorduan]

 

I like Tommy Milone, but there's zero upside to him as a starter. He's a No. 5 on a second division team. He's a guy in no way would you ever want starting a playoff game. He would have been a godsend on the 2013 or 2012 Twins, but we don't need him now.

 

I don't understand why everyone thinks his "stuff wouldn't play" in the bullpen. How many pitchers go to the pen and put up worse numbers? Almost none. If you think he's a guy who can get major league hitters out 18 times an outing in the rotation, somebody's gotta explain to me why he couldn't get 3 or 4 outs an outing out of the bullpen.

yeah, Hughes, Santana and Nolasco are such sure things........

[adorduan]

 

I don't think the Twins discount Milone. They will be going to arbitration with him for a second year. They shouldn't discount Milone.

He has performed better than any other Twin starter since his first full season of 2012.

By ERA+ (adjusted for league and park)

Milone 99
Hughes 96
Santana 96
Nolasco 85

The varying ERA estimators converge with ERA by 500 innings and the sample for all of these starters is significantly more than 500 innings over 4 years. Steamer projects him to have a better ERA next year than any other Twin starter (with 10+ projected starts) other than Berrios.

He is the only lefty. He is younger than Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. He has performed better according to ERA+ going back 4 years. He is projected by Steamer to have better ERA next year and likely the year following. Why would anyone discount him?

Because he doesn't throw 95+. It's wrong, but that's it in a nutshell.

 

[David HK]

OK, among TD faithful, I may be in the minority, but I actually like having Milone as a #5.  The season is a long grind, and you have to manage each game with that in mind.  Having a slow-balling lefty one game, and a hard-throwing sinkerballer the next messes with the overall timing of the opposition.  One game at a time,  yeh, he's not so impressive.  But IMHO, he benefits the rest of the rotation around him.

 

'3 Nights in August,' a dissection of Tony LaRussa's Cards a few years ago, pointed this kind of thinking out eloquently.  You need a change-of-pace guy like Milone through the long slog of the season.  Yes, TM would probably not start a potential playoff game, but his presence over the long haul is important.  I've got a Cheshire grin right now, thinking of how Berrios fastball would look to hitters the day after a Milone start...

[Linus]

Because he doesn't throw 95+. It's wrong, but that's it in a nutshell.

This. If this were a blind taste test everyone would be in love with Milone. Everyone is in love with what they think May, Gibson, Duffey WILL do as opposed to what Milone has actually done.

[markos]

 

I'm not asking for it to be a mathematical proof, but if you're going to cite his ability to be about the same in innings 4-6 as he is 1-3, you should maybe fact check whether that is a trend worth even mentioning.  Just, off the top of your head, pull up the stats of 12 good relievers that began as starters and I bet you'll find the majority struggled in their first three innings.  It's the case for Perkins, Wade Davis, and many others.  This isn't about stuff playing up early and then being found out for most of these guys, the truth is that a move to the bullpen is usually somewhat transformative for guys.  So I'm not sure using their stats as a starter is all that reliable.

 

Here's what we know: Milone is pretty good against both righties and lefties and last year he was electric against lefties.  A guy that can do that is a pretty handy dude to have as a 7th inning guy.  If he gets a velocity uptick there is no reason to believe he can't be Gorzelanny, Duke, or Brett Cecil if he moves down.  

 

He doesn't have to be a bullpen phenom, he just has to be pretty good and I think there is every reason to believe he can because, well, he's a pretty good pitcher.  May has potential to be better than that and the only two arguments anybody is using to defend the move are:  1) We need him (a really awful argument, since this is freaking fixable. Even now!) and 2) He hasn't been that great....in 25 freaking starts.  An argument I hope I don't have to take down because of how preposterously unfair it is to a developing young player.

Yes, I will agree that there are a lot of terrible starting pitchers that completely re-invented themselves in order to salvage their careers. But that isn't really the situation that Milone is in, and it doesn't really matter for the question I'm trying to answer. I probably made this rather unclear, but the question I'm trying to answer is "how much better will Milone be in the bullpen versus as a starter?" It isn't a question of whether he will be better or not (he will be), it is a question of degree. If Milone is projected to have a 4.10 ERA as a starter (per Steamer), his times-through-the-order ability does matter (at least a little) when trying to make an educated guess about how much better he will perform as a reliever. What do you think his ERA will be as a reliever? 3.10? 3.50? 3.75? 

 

This matters because it will determine the best allocation of the current roster. May (also per Steamer) is projected for at 3.50 ERA as a reliever. Using this, with May pitching say 70 innings and Milone pitching 180, you end up with roughly 109 runs. Now the two questions are "What will May's ERA be as a starter?" and "What will Milone's ERA be as a reliever?". I contend for many reasons (times-through-the-order penalty just one) that the change for May will be larger than the change for Milone. And if that difference is big enough (say May as starter is 4.00 ERA (+0.50) and Milone as reliever is 3.85 (-0.25)), then the 2016 team will give up fewer runs total with May in the bullpen. It is still only December, so a lot can change with the roster. But that is the question that I'm trying to wrap my mind around. I would be very interested to get your thoughts/predictions about both players' deltas between bullpen and rotation. Unless you think that the delta is the same for every pitcher or is completely random, at which point we will just have to agree to disagree.

 

And as a final aside, my personal thought is that May should be in the rotation this year because I don't care about maximizing 2016 run prevention. If I was in charge, it is by far better for the 2017 and beyond teams to know if May can get his performance to actually match the mid-rotation stuff that he has, which means he needs to be in the rotation now.

[launchingthrees]

 

Because he doesn't throw 95+. It's wrong, but that's it in a nutshell.

 

No. The Twins will never be a favorite in a playoff game with Milone as the starting pitcher. Every year there are multiple free agents the twins could sign to replace his value. Keeping him in the rotation and leaving May(or anyone with upside) out is quite odd. He's Mr. Irrelevant.

Edited December 24, 2015 by launchingthrees

[adorduan]

 

No. The Twins will never be a favorite in a playoff game with Milone as the starting pitcher. Every year there are multiple free agents the twins could sign to replace his value. Keeping him in the rotation and leaving May(or anyone with upside) out is quite odd. He's Mr. Irrelevant.

What would be the point of replacing him with a free agent that gives you equal value that would cost more?  And the question should is he one of the best 5 starters on the team, period. IMO, there is a very good chance that he's better than Nolasco or even Hughes.  If that's the case he should start, but contracts and egos will never let that happen.

[jun]

 

Milone is fine, I just wish they would figure out a way to trade him or one of the other starters at this point however.

Why would you want to trade a fairly good lefty starter? Just because May is younger and has more upside? Sometimes upside is just upside, it might never work out. I know a lot of people like May enough so that they all want the best for him. Well unfortunately this is a team sport. We as Twins fans should want the best for the team. May with his strikeout stuff should stay in the bullpen so that he could get velocity up to get more strikeouts and appear in more games. I believe Milone is going to have a long successful career as a starter. He does not throw hard just like Buehrle or Maddux. He really knows how to pitch out of trouble. It seems to me the only way to get out of trouble for May is to strike people out though.

Edited December 24, 2015 by jun

[TheLeviathan]

but the question I'm trying to answer is "how much better will Milone be in the bullpen versus as a starter?" I.

The answer is that we probably have no freaking clue. Perhaps throwing 90 with his changeup makes him devastating. Perhaps he gets no bump.

 

Some guys seem to just transform themselves in ways their numbers give no indication. I don't want to project anything because, to me, it's not the valuable distinction.

 

What matters is how you help this team now and going forward and that is almost certainly investing starts in a kid who flashed real promise.

[TheLeviathan]

my guess is it's the belief among some Twins brass that May won't prove much better than Milone in the rotation, but May will likely be a much better bullpen piece than Milone. May's stuff plays up better in the pen.

You seem to be in the camp unfairly expecting May to be gods gift to pitching in his first 25 starts.

 

So May is a rotation equal now to Milone and likely to get better with seasoning, so you lose nothing now and help your team long term. The only issue? A bullpen you could fix with money. Then you have Milone and another quality arm in the pen.

 

You seem to be defending an answer to a "problem" the Twins created themselves by a refusal to spend money in FA.

[USAFChief]

 

You seem to be in the camp unfairly expecting May to be gods gift to pitching in his first 25 starts.

So May is a rotation equal now to Milone and likely to get better with seasoning, so you lose nothing now and help your team long term. The only issue? A bullpen you could fix with money. Then you have Milone and another quality arm in the pen.

You seem to be defending an answer to a "problem" the Twins created themselves by a refusal to spend money in FA.

If the Twins go out and acquire 3 relievers equal to or better than what I expect from May, great.  Put May in the rotation.

 

Since they're not going to do that, I think May to the pen is likely the best of the available choices.