Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

I especially disagree with your average starter = a better than average RP'er.  Last year SP'ers averaged a 4.11 ERA and RP'ers averaged 3.71.  I am not even sure that Milone would make up that split much less become better than average.

First of all, the math.    If you have 5 pitchers in the rotation the average is likely the #3.    If the league average starter has 4.11 ERA doesn't that make MIlone with his 3.92 ERA better than average and thus slightly better than a #3?    Ok, you say that might be true but he wouldn't start on a playoff team.   A quick check of WS champion KC ERA's puts Milone at #3 on their staff even without the benefit of the great KC defense.  #4 with the Mets,   #5 with the Cubs, #5 with the Pirates.  #5 with the Dodgers. #3 with the Rangers,  #5 with the Astros #5 with the Blue Jays and #3 with the Yankees.   But no one wants him in the Twins rotation?

He would not be the ideal starter in a playoff game but if you told me the Twins will make the playoffs and Milone will start one game every series I would be just fine with that.  

I enjoy watching Milone because he pitches rather than just throws.    In fact I never particularly liked watching Hughes pitch because it was monotonous.    Once his velocity dipped and he couldn't get by with throwing his cutter most of the time I enjoyed watching him more because he seemed to become a pitcher rather than a thrower.   He did much better once he changed speeds, pitches and locations.  

My ideal rotation would be Santana, May, Gibson, Duffey and Milone.    If May is in the bullpen that makes me want Milone in there even more.   If Milone has a sub 4.00 ERA and Berrios forces him out then that means we have a really good staff.  Hughes and Nolasco in the pen and providing rotation depth.  

If you have an entire team of players that slightly outperform the average at their position as Milone has done then you probably have a playoff team.  

[Seth Stohs]

I like Milone and I enjoy watching him pitch. Obviously, like most pitchers, there will be the occasional game, or even stretch of a few games, that don't go well. But when Milone is pitching well, he is fun to watch. He'll give up base runners, but he nibbles and claws and finds a way. 

 

Also, 2014 - when there was an injury in play - is the only season in his four full(ish) seasons that he's had a K/9 of less than 6.4. His location, and that changeup, are really good. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The facts are the facts:

 

1.  Milone isn't the big, sexy pitcher everyone wants.  He's your basic grunt that get's the job done. 

2.  The Twins NEED May in the bullpen.

 

The Twins only "NEED" Milone there because they chose to do nothing to alleviate that need.  It's really a pretty terrible argument.  

 

Milone's fine, I hold no ill-will towards him, but he isn't the kind of guy that this team should be making a point to wedge into the rotation at the expense of their future.  While his career splits versus lefties are not great, his splits last season were outstanding.  Perhaps he's developed something as a pitcher to reverse that trend.

 

It's also a bit of a false argument to say that his starting pitching splits are an accurate indication of how he'd pitch in the bullpen.  In the bullpen his matchups would be hand-chosen and there is generally expected to be a velocity uptick.  

 

I mean, if we take that argument as valid - someone needs to explain Glen Perkins to me.  He sucked terribly as a starter in innings 1-3, but was much better 4-6.  It would seem to indicate he also was a poor convert candidate.  I'd suggest the real flaw is in trying to use that data to project.

 

So I absolutely see him as a left-handed, late inning specialist.  That is a viable role for him that the Twins just haven't chosen to give him, largely (I believe) because they insist on having at least one left-handed starter.  I don't think that's very good reasoning.

[goulik]

As we go forward with all these young pitchers trying to prove themselves, we need some reliable proven starters. Santana and Milone we know what we're going to get. Hughes alternates his good years (10, '12, '14) with bad years ('11, '13, '15) but most of his "good years" are only as good as Milone where it really matters, putting the team in position to win.

Gibson, Duffey, May, Meyer, Berrios, etc are still all unproven. Milone IS the right choice for the starting rotation ALL YEAR. It's all the others not named Santana that are the question marks. We are beating the wrong dead horse folks.

[kab21]

 

First of all, the math.    If you have 5 pitchers in the rotation the average is likely the #3.    If the league average starter has 4.11 ERA doesn't that make MIlone with his 3.92 ERA better than average and thus slightly better than a #3?    Ok, you say that might be true but he wouldn't start on a playoff team.   A quick check of WS champion KC ERA's puts Milone at #3 on their staff even without the benefit of the great KC defense.  #4 with the Mets,   #5 with the Cubs, #5 with the Pirates.  #5 with the Dodgers. #3 with the Rangers,  #5 with the Astros #5 with the Blue Jays and #3 with the Yankees.   But no one wants him in the Twins rotation?

He would not be the ideal starter in a playoff game but if you told me the Twins will make the playoffs and Milone will start one game every series I would be just fine with that.  

I enjoy watching Milone because he pitches rather than just throws.    In fact I never particularly liked watching Hughes pitch because it was monotonous.    Once his velocity dipped and he couldn't get by with throwing his cutter most of the time I enjoyed watching him more because he seemed to become a pitcher rather than a thrower.   He did much better once he changed speeds, pitches and locations.  

My ideal rotation would be Santana, May, Gibson, Duffey and Milone.    If May is in the bullpen that makes me want Milone in there even more.   If Milone has a sub 4.00 ERA and Berrios forces him out then that means we have a really good staff.  Hughes and Nolasco in the pen and providing rotation depth.  

If you have an entire team of players that slightly outperform the average at their position as Milone has done then you probably have a playoff team.  

 

there appears to be some sort of disconnect.  I posted the ERA's to show that RP'ers naturally perform better than starting pitchers for many reasons that have been stated.  Milone to go from an average SP'er to above average RP'er is pretty difficult to envision.

 

Do you see any reason that Milone would become a better than average RP'er (let's target 3.25 ERA)?  I think that is very unlikely but I think that is very likely from May.  Which brings me back to my original point that you seem to endorse.

 

May SP > Milone SP (May is not even guaranteed to be better but there is upside)

May RP >>>>>>>> Milone RP

 

It is very unlikely that Milone's stuff plays up in the bullpen for any of the reasons that Mike previously stated.  It is very likely that Mays' stuff plays up and the stats (not a huge sample size) back that up so far.

 

Of course Milone could take the Perkins route to stardom in the bullpen but that is rare for someone that throws 87.  Even if he added 3-4 mph to his fastball like Perkins he is only hitting 90-91.

[tobi0040]

 

Milone's fine, I hold no ill-will towards him, but he isn't the kind of guy that this team should be making a point to wedge into the rotation at the expense of their future.  While his career splits versus lefties are not great, his splits last season were outstanding.  Perhaps he's developed something as a pitcher to reverse that trend.

 

 

 

This is spot on and what has frustrated me.  Somehow Milone is a lock for the rotation and May is the odd man out.  I just don't get it 

 

If we can turn a #5 starter (Milone) for an above average reliever than I think that is a great move for us.  Makes us better in two spots (reliever and May in the rotation)

 

 

[DaveW]

Milone is fine, I just wish they would figure out a way to trade him or one of the other starters at this point however.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As we go forward with all these young pitchers trying to prove themselves, we need some reliable proven starters. Santana and Milone we know what we're going to get. Hughes alternates his good years (10, '12, '14) with bad years ('11, '13, '15) but most of his "good years" are only as good as Milone where it really matters, putting the team in position to win.
Gibson, Duffey, May, Meyer, Berrios, etc are still all unproven. Milone IS the right choice for the starting rotation ALL YEAR. It's all the others not named Santana that are the question marks. We are beating the wrong dead horse folks.

 

Why? Who is the Mets' proven starter?

[Don Walcott]

My problem with Milone as a starter is that he is incapable of regularly pitching deep into games.  For his career, so far, he is averaging less than 6 innings per start.  This, despite his apparent ability to "settle" into games and do fairly well the third time through the lineup.  The problem is that the third time through the lineup happens in the 5th-6th inning. Last year, he needed the bullpen to handle 3+ innings on average.  Having a guy like Milone puts too much stress on the bullpen, which leads to a tired bullpen getting tired and injured and worse as the season goes on (like what happened to the Twins last year).

[DaveW]

 

My problem with Milone as a starter is that he is incapable of regularly pitching deep into games.  For his career, so far, he is averaging less than 6 innings per start.  This, despite his apparent ability to "settle" into games and do fairly well the third time through the lineup.  The problem is that the third time through the lineup happens in the 5th-6th inning. Last year, he needed the bullpen to handle 3+ innings on average.  Having a guy like Milone puts too much stress on the bullpen, which leads to a tired bullpen getting tired and injured and worse as the season goes on (like what happened to the Twins last year).

 I have a hard time criticizing him too much on this, most #5's wont get you too deep, even though I want May in the rotation, I must admit that he was pretty poor on pitching deep into games (worse than Milone IIRC)

[Shane Wahl]

One might think that one starter/one reliever between May/Milone is a wickedly false dichotomy.

 

 

[Shane Wahl]

Christ, why don't they just trade May then?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My problem with Milone as a starter is that he is incapable of regularly pitching deep into games.  For his career, so far, he is averaging less than 6 innings per start.  This, despite his apparent ability to "settle" into games and do fairly well the third time through the lineup.  The problem is that the third time through the lineup happens in the 5th-6th inning. Last year, he needed the bullpen to handle 3+ innings on average.  Having a guy like Milone puts too much stress on the bullpen, which leads to a tired bullpen getting tired and injured and worse as the season goes on (like what happened to the Twins last year).

 

I suspect that if you looked at the numbers, this would be true of most starters.  30 games and 180 IP averages to 6 innings per start. 

[jorgenswest]

I am not certain that Milone is incapable of going beyond 6 innings. He hasn't been given the chance very often. That can happen with lefties and several right handed options sitting in the bullpen. He was asked to throw over 100 pitches much more often while in Oakland and maintained his performance level.

 

In any case, it may not be that important. Teams are rethinking the need for a pitcher to go deeper into games. Some teams are facing success turning to their bullpen in the 6th inning. It important that he is able to pitch deep when the bullpen needs rest. I think he showed in Oakland that he is capable.

[tobi0040]

 

 I have a hard time criticizing him too much on this, most #5's wont get you too deep, even though I want May in the rotation, I must admit that he was pretty poor on pitching deep into games (worse than Milone IIRC)

 

While you remembered correctly, it is tough after 25 career starts to label a guy.  Most young pitchers have a few clunkers in their first starts that drag IP/start down. 

 

Gibson for example averaged 5 IP his first 10 starts.

[DaveW]

 

While you remembered correctly, it is tough after 25 career starts to label a guy.  Most young pitchers have a few clunkers in their first starts that drag IP/start down. 

 

Gibson for example averaged 5 IP his first 10 starts.

I agree, I'm not labeling him at all and I think he can improve, but IIRC it wasn't just inconsistency with May, it seemed like every start he never made it past 6. (Could be wrong)

 

I want May over Milone in the rotation as well, but "ability to go deep" isn't one of the things May has over Milone at this stage.

[halfchest]

I'll counter your small sample with a smaller sample!

 

[table]
[thead]

SplitGPAABRH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+[/thead]
1st PA in G as SP161441371642933004389.50.307.331.482.81366012001.406115128
2nd PA in G as SP151261171234612005244.80.291.317.410.72848310300.3409499
3rd PA in G as SP1389801321313009111.22.263.337.438.77535100012.273107103
4th+ PA in G as SP111000000000[/td][td].000.000.000.0000000000.000-100-100
1st PA in G as RP321321201330613008374.63.250.305.392.69747121110.3338699
[/table]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/23/2015.

 

ok, looking at that, I'm assuming it's not going to work but I guess I will have to post and cross my fingers.  Essentially it shows your information on May getting worse each time through the lineup was drawn out more due to his time as a reliever and his 2014 stats. 

 

I think May either ends up as a top reliever which is valuable in todays market or transitions back to starter where he may be a good mid rotation guy, maybe even a #2 if all things work out well.  That said, I agree with the overall premise.  Milone is a very good but just not sexy starter.  I'll be very interested to see how his career goes the rest of the way. 

[dxpavelka]

I was one of the few people who a year ago thought Milone would / should be the 5th starter.  That view was based, at least in part, on uncertainty surrounding May.  A year removed from that, I believe most of the uncertainty around May has been laid to rest and I have yet to be compelled by any argument as to why a team with contending aspirations would be better served by starting a guy with 4th or 5th starter potential rather than a guy with 2nd or 3rd starter potential.  Contributions to the bullpen are fine and dandy but if your starters have given up 4-6 runs before you get to that bullpen guy you're looking at a 4th or 5th place finish. 

[scottz]

 

 I have a hard time criticizing him too much on this, most #5's wont get you too deep, even though I want May in the rotation, I must admit that he was pretty poor on pitching deep into games (worse than Milone IIRC)

I figured I'd look up last year's stats so we don't have to rely on our memories and personal biases one way or the other that go with those memories.

Here are the data from Trevor May and Tommy Milones' starts in 2015. Obviously, this isn't a whole lot of data to go by, but it's something to look at. My interpretation is that Milone might have a slight advantage in the pitching deeper, but not overwhelmingly so, and probably not nearly enough in scale (or sample size) to say significantly so. If you go by average innings per start, May was 5.21 (not quite 5 innings + 1 out), Milone was 5.55 (not quite 5 innings + 2 outs).

 

2015

May
16 Games Started

Times Pitched Into or Through a given inning

1st - 1 (6.25% of starts)

2nd - 0

3rd - 1 (6.25% - the "stretch out" game after being in the bullpen)

4th - 2 (12.5%)

5th - 1 (6.25%)
6th - 7 (43.75%)

7th - 4 (25%)

8th - 0

9th - 0

 

Milone
23 Games Started
Times Pitched Into or Through a given inning
1st - 0
2nd - 1 (4.35%)
3rd - 1 (4.35%)
4th - 1 (4.35%)
5th - 3 (13.04%)
6th - 9 (39.13%)
7th - 7 (30.43%)
8th - 1 (4.35%)
9th - 0

[DaveW]

Ah thanks for looking that up, I definitely think May will continue to improve in that department as well moving forward.

 

Again, Ideally the Twins could figure out one or two of the following:

 

1. Trade one of Milone or Hughes for a nice RP in return (or a solid prospect)

2. Trade Nolasco for anything

3. Trade Gibson or Santana for a really nice haul. Or include them as a part of a way to get an Ace or future Ace.

[markos]

 

It's also a bit of a false argument to say that his starting pitching splits are an accurate indication of how he'd pitch in the bullpen.  In the bullpen his matchups would be hand-chosen and there is generally expected to be a velocity uptick.  

 

I mean, if we take that argument as valid - someone needs to explain Glen Perkins to me.  He sucked terribly as a starter in innings 1-3, but was much better 4-6.  It would seem to indicate he also was a poor convert candidate.  I'd suggest the real flaw is in trying to use that data to project.

Arguments used to help predict future performance in baseball aren't like mathematical proofs in the sense that they are proven false in light of a single counter-example. It can still be true that times-through-the-order splits matter for predicting bullpen performance for the majority of pitchers even if Glen Perkins (and dozens of others) appear to be the opposite.

 

In your opinion, are there any indicators that will help us predict how well a starter like Milone will transition to a relief role? Or are they all just "false arguments", and instead we should just assume that every single starting pitcher will be a relief-ace when moved to the bullpen?

 

 

[Dman]

Initially I was not a Tommy fan but after what he did when they dropped him to AAA and then up to MLB I became a big Tommy fan.  I think he has earned his place in the rotation and yes it is nice to have a lefty arm.

 

I think this Milone, May debate comes down to depth and how the Twins want to use said depth.  If I was a GM I would want to try and build or continue to build the value of the guys I brought in via FA.  So yes I would start the season with the vets give them a 4 to 5 start leash and re-evaluate from there.

 

I can come up with all kinds of numbers to create positive and negative scenario's but I think in the end you have to give the vets first crack.  What if Nolasco pitches great this coming year?  What if Hughes has a huge bounce back year?  What is Santana is unhitable out of the gate?  We don't know how these guys are going to perform until they start.  

 

If they start off badly then yeah look at moving Hughes to the pen.  Replace Nolasco etc.  Move May back to the starting rotation.  If the older vets get hurt or are ineffective then the plan B's can come in to play.  

 

In my mind we are going to need all the pitching we can get and if we don't then that means the old guys are doing just fine.  I don't care where they put May as long as we are winning.  If we aren't then the FO needs to be ready to be on the hot seat because I believe we do have younger better options.

[Kwak]

 

I agree, I'm not labeling him at all and I think he can improve, but IIRC it wasn't just inconsistency with May, it seemed like every start he never made it past 6. (Could be wrong)

 

I want May over Milone in the rotation as well, but "ability to go deep" isn't one of the things May has over Milone at this stage.

Last year May started 14 games, he had 8 starts of 6 to 7 innings (none longer), but all were "quality starts".

 

The point raised that the Twins "just discovered" the 6 inning start followed by 3 + RPs is bogus--it has been almost de regueur for the Twins for many years.

[Kwak]

 

Arguments used to help predict future performance in baseball aren't like mathematical proofs in the sense that they are proven false in light of a single counter-example. It can still be true that times-through-the-order splits matter for predicting bullpen performance for the majority of pitchers even if Glen Perkins (and dozens of others) appear to be the opposite.

 

In your opinion, are there any indicators that will help us predict how well a starter like Milone will transition to a relief role? Or are they all just "false arguments", and instead we should just assume that every single starting pitcher will be a relief-ace when moved to the bullpen?

My memory of a "typical Glen Perkins start" is different--first two innings fine; nicked in the third, battled effectively in the 4th and 5th, gets hurt in the 6th and sees the 7th from the dugout.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like Tommy Milone, but there's zero upside to him as a starter. He's a No. 5 on a second division team. He's a guy in no way would you ever want starting a playoff game.

I'm no Milone fan - I'd like to see him traded - but you're really underselling the guy here. He's lining up as the fifth starter on the team: a 29 year old lefty with a career 99 ERA+ and a 4.30 FIP, 4.22 xFIP.

 

As someone else said, if you're rolling out what looks to be a league-average guy as your fifth starter, you're probably doing okay for yourself.

 

The Mets rolled (literally, rolled) Colon out for 30-ish starts last season and Niese for 30-ish starts. I seem to remember them playing pretty late in the season.

 

We all love upside. I'd prefer to see May in the rotation; I think it's the smart long-term move. But you're not giving Milone the credit he deserves. He is a league average guy on the right side of 30 years old. He's not going to kill the team by taking the mound every fifth day.

 

The problem isn't Tommy Milone (but, again, I'd try to move him), it's the rest of the rotation. Almost everybody is a Tommy Milone in this rotation, though a couple of them don't have Milone's age or handed-ness on their side.

[Thrylos]

This is what scares me about Milone:

 

Milone's worst pitch is his fastball

Milones only above average pitch is his change up

which he throws about 25% of the time and is just 6 mph slower than his FB.

 

Add the fact that the past 2 seasons he pitched <130 and <120 innings, and I tend to think that there is no book on him yet.

 

And when that happens, we will be watching batting practice...

 

Sell High.

[Dantes929]

 

This is spot on and what has frustrated me.  Somehow Milone is a lock for the rotation and May is the odd man out.  I just don't get it 

 

If we can turn a #5 starter (Milone) for an above average reliever than I think that is a great move for us.  Makes us better in two spots (reliever and May in the rotation)

IF we can turn Milone for an above average reliever and put May in the rotation I am all for it.   No where have I seen that Milone is a lock for the rotation and that is kind of the point of the blog in the first place.    Also, if I had my druthers Milone would be a starter but with Hughes and Nolasco as the odd men out rather than May..    

Lastly, I see the appeal of lights out relief staff and if you can get them fine but for the most point I don't demand strikeouts from relief pitchers.   There are occasions where a strikeout is really nice but I like double plays also and if a guy can give up 2.5 runs/9 with a 5 SO/9 I prefer that over a guy with a 3 ERA that strikes out 10/9.     Ground outs and fly outs and holding guys on are important also.   I am not suggesting that Milone is an ideal bullpen guy but think Craig Breslow who had some real value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is what scares me about Milone:

 

Milone's worst pitch is his fastball

Milones only above average pitch is his change up

which he throws about 25% of the time and is just 6 mph slower than his FB.

 

Add the fact that the past 2 seasons he pitched

 

And when that happens, we will be watching batting practice...

 

Sell High.

While it's a gamble to roll out a "crafty" starter for a prolonged period of time, Milone has pitched 614 innings as a starter, almost entirely in the American League. If teams don't have a solid book on the guy by now, everyone is asleep at the wheel.

 

But I agree with your point to an extent. Milone has little to no wiggle room as a pitcher. If he loses a MPH or feel for a pitch, things won't just go bad... It'll be disastrous. He's Nick Blackburn Redux at that point.

 

Which is part of the reason why I believe he should be traded, even if the return is modest. The other part of my reasoning was mentioned in a previous post... The Twins already have a slew of Milones in the rotation and Tommy is one of the few who might have some trade value.

[Dantes929]

This has devolved into a Milone vs May discussion and imo it shouldn't be.   If anything it should be about Milone vs Nolasco and Hughes and I think Milone has shown over his career and last season that it should be him over the other two.     Then the discussion should be about Nolasco vs Hughes vs May.   I don't know why Nolasco or Hughes should be ineffective as relievers.     .  

[Dantes929]

Of course if Milone loses MPH or feel for a pitch things can go bad but that is not unique.  As of last year Hughes had lost MPH and who knows if it will come back.   One thing I noticed about Milone and I think the pitch tracking would back me up is that he got pinched by the umps more than any other pitcher on the staff.   It was to his credit that he still put up the numbers he did but if he got a little respect on the corners he could be even better.