Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone

[Nick Nelson]

In discussions of how the 2016 Twins rotation might shape up, one thing that I've been noticing is that fans seem rather sour on Tommy Milone. I don't fully understand why.When it became clear last week that Paul Molitor is planning to put Trevor May in the bullpen, much of the frustration I saw related to the fact that the Twins would opt for a pitcher like Milone in the rotation. The rationale, then, must be that May is likely to be so much better than Milone as a starter that it cancels out the edge gained by utilizing his potent skills as a reliever.

 

May certainly has more upside, I don't think anyone would deny that. He has the ability to be a No. 2 or No. 3 type in a rotation, and that's hard to envision with Milone. But there is value in a quality fourth or fifth starter, and Milone has very consistently been that.

 

Here are some reasons that I think people need to appreciate Milone a little more, particularly as it pertains to this discussion:

 

He has never been bad.

 

He has had bad stretches. But since coming to the big leagues in 2011, Milone has never truly been bad over the course of a full year. His worst season-ending ERA was 4.19, and that came in 2014 when he finished on an uncharacteristically brutal note after being traded to Minnesota.

 

He has never had an ERA+ above 105 or below 90, so you pretty much know what you're getting. He's reliably average, and there's value in that; for proof, look no further than the deal Mike Leake signed with the Cardinals this week.

 

Lineups don't adjust to him.

 

In contemplating May's merits as a starting pitcher, I think these splits (via Baseball Reference) are worth considering:

 

Download attachment: maysplit.png

That's how May has fared the first, second and third time through the lineup in his MLB career. As you can see, he gets noticeably worse each time through, and what stands out in particular is the K/BB ratios.

 

(Of course, the sample size for May is quite small – he only has 25 major-league starts, less than a full season's worth.)

 

Here are the same career splits for Milone:

 

Download attachment: milonesplit.png

It looks like opposing hitters jump on him right away occasionally, but they don't adjust to his lower velocity and start crushing him. Quite the opposite.

 

He doesn't seem to offer much as a reliever.

 

This is a big piece of this thing that many seem to overlook. We know that May has the ability to be a transformative asset in the bullpen. Do we think Milone can really provide much value there at all, outside of serving as a long reliever or mop-up guy?

 

Milone doesn't really have the kind of splits that you'd want in a lefty specialist, and my non-scouting eye doesn't see his stuff playing up all that much in short stints. There's just not a lot of benefit to be seen there, which is probably why only nine of his 213 appearances as a pro have been in relief.

 

Now to be clear, none of this is meant to downplay May, who I still want to see in the rotation long-term. But to suggest that the Twins are shooting themselves in the foot by preferring Milone over him as a starter right now ignores the qualities that the lefty brings to the table, as well as the comparative advantage of moving May to the bullpen instead.

 

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[Vanimal46]

I'd much rather see Milone traded to another team, and let the upside of May play out in the rotation. We know what Milone is, a back of the rotation starter. And if the Twins were to make the playoffs, he's not going to be included in the playoff rotation. As Nick mentioned, he doesn't offer much as a relief pitcher, so what are the Twins going to do with him if they were to make the playoffs in 2016?

 

The title of this article is "Let's stop discounting Milone" but why are we discounting May's SSS of 25 starts?

[James Richter]

If your #5 starter is league average, that's not bad. But the Twins #5 starter could be better than that.

 

I'm hoping one of the teams that was pursuing Leake will decide to give up something decent for three below-market years from Milone. Take the money saved from his arb salary and put it toward a reliever who's about as good as May, and give May the rotation spot. A slightly higher payroll situation, but instead of 2 + 1 WAR from Milone starting and May relieving, they'd get 3 + 1 WAR from May starting and the new bullpen guy, plus maybe some extra value from whatever Milone fetched in trade.

 

Taking nothing away from Milone - that's just how I'd prefer to see them allocate their resources.

[Dantes929]

I have no problem going in with a rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes and Milone.  Honestly, if I had my druthers it would probably be May for Hughes rather than May for Milone because Hughes would probably be all right out of the pen.   The rotation has been bad but for every year of his career Milone would have been the #2 pitcher on our staff with his ERA except for 2012 when he would be #3.     You can call him a back of the rotation pitcher if you want to but he hasn't been the back of our rotation starter.    I will be thrilled if he pitches the whole season with his career ERA of 3.97 and shows up on baseball reference as our 5th best pitcher.   That means we will have had 4 better ERA's.    I don't think I have ever discounted him.    He can beat anyone because he has stuff and command.     I hate when fans heap all softer throwers together.   The guy has proven he can pitch sub 4 ERA  over 106 starts   That is not such a small sample size.   87 Twins would have been thrilled to have him.  

[h2oface]

I think the the most teams look at Milone the same way, and are discounting him.. I know if I was attending a game, and Milone was the starter, I would be disappointed (although not as disappointed as I was when I had to watch Pelfrey last year in the series against the Angels out here in California). If I was to be the man that selected the "average pitcher(s)" to keep if I needed to cull from all the other wide selection of "average pitchers" on the roster, Milone would be one of the first. Maybe I am not being statistically fair, but sometimes one can't really put the finger on reasons.The thing I like about Milone, is that if I needed another average pitcher for injury replacement, it could turn out OK if I needed Tommy Milone to step in. I don't think that is what role Milone would like to play, though. 

[Thegrin]

Clap Clap Clap  *Cheer* Hooray

 

This needed to be said.

 

and you didn't mention how his left-handedness throws hitters off their timing when facing our next pitcher (right-handed) 

[HitInAPinch]

The facts are the facts:

 

1.  Milone isn't the big, sexy pitcher everyone wants.  He's your basic grunt that get's the job done. 

2.  The Twins NEED May in the bullpen.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I wholeheartedly agree. First, having a consistent lefty in your rotation is kinda like having a no-bat catcher on your bench. Not a difference maker, but a necessity.

 

Second, if you want an unsexy trade bait starter that, according to his peripherals, has probably fulfilled his upside, that's Gibson.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I have no problem with Milone, he's fine, but the rotation is chock full of "Milones". The rotation is much better with a May instead instead of "a Milone", but the other three "Milones" have much larger contracts that will be much harder to shed

[Tom Froemming]

I like Tommy Milone, but there's zero upside to him as a starter. He's a No. 5 on a second division team. He's a guy in no way would you ever want starting a playoff game. He would have been a godsend on the 2013 or 2012 Twins, but we don't need him now.

 

I don't understand why everyone thinks his "stuff wouldn't play" in the bullpen. How many pitchers go to the pen and put up worse numbers? Almost none. If you think he's a guy who can get major league hitters out 18 times an outing in the rotation, somebody's gotta explain to me why he couldn't get 3 or 4 outs an outing out of the bullpen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have no problem with Milone, but this is a situation where I think he has more value to us in a trade than what he provides in the rotation. I have a tough time believing (and maybe I'm wrong here) that Milone will out perform May if they were both AL starters this season. If that back of the rotation guy is so valuable, we can trade his 3 years of arb for some decent prospects and then take the money we would have spent on him and sign someone like Bastardo to be that back of the pen guy. May goes to the rotation and the team overall is better. Not bad, I might add, for a guy that we got for a Sam Fuld waiver claim.

 

If you don't like that, I have to think you can flip him for a decent reliever.

 

I think the main reason Ryan wants him is depth. I like depth, all teams need it, especially with pitching, but I think at the moment we have plenty of that and need to focus more on some needs. Even without Tommy, one of May, Duffey (options), Nolasco will either be in the pen or in Rochester if there are no injuries. Not to mention you have Berrios waiting in the wings, a potential wild card in Meyer, and two pitchers on the 40 man (Dean and Rogers) who at least from a numbers standpoint appear to be major league ready. I think we are a long way from seeing 4A guys making starts, even if we traded off Milone.

[kab21]

 

The title of this article is "Let's stop discounting Milone" but why are we discounting May's SSS of 25 starts?

This is not the argument at all.

 

Here is the argument:

May SP > Milone SP

May RP >>>>>>> Milone RP

 

And the rotation still has Berrios as the next man up and his upside is higher than May.  The rotation without May is still very good (not said often for the Twins).

 

Yet my preferred plan would have been to sign a good RP'er (often questionable investments though) and keep May in the rotation but I am not going to think it is the end of the world or a dramatic decrease in May's value.  Queue the 60 innings talk...

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get the "he's good enough to get 15 - 18 outs, but not good enough to get three outs" argument at all.

 

If you are good enough to be an average starter, you are certainly good enough to be a better than average RP.

 

I like Milone, have no issue with him in the rotation. 

[Jham]

The only real difference between Milone and Buehrle is a HR every 5 games, a few more K's and BB's, and less GB.  The GB rate must be offset by the K's since the FIPs and xFIPs are basically the same.  Buehrle also dominated lefties from what I remember.  I feel Milone is undervalued in the market due to his lack of velo and lack of upside.  But being able to just plug someone in for a dozen wins is kind of nice.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=225&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7608&position=P

[kab21]

 

I don't get the "he's good enough to get 15 - 18 outs, but not good enough to get three outs" argument at all.

 

If you are good enough to be an average starter, you are certainly good enough to be a better than average RP.

 

I like Milone, have no issue with him in the rotation. 

I don't think this is true in the rather extreme examples of May and Milone.  Milone doesn't have 1 or 2 great pitches that play up in the bullpen.  May's stuff on the other does play up.

 

I especially disagree with your average starter = a better than average RP'er.  Last year SP'ers averaged a 4.11 ERA and RP'ers averaged 3.71.  I am not even sure that Milone would make up that split much less become better than average.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think this is true in the rather extreme examples of May and Milone.  Milone doesn't have 1 or 2 great pitches that play up in the bullpen.  May's stuff on the other does play up.

 

I especially disagree with your average starter = a better than average RP'er.  Last year SP'ers averaged a 4.11 ERA and RP'ers averaged 3.71.  I am not even sure that Milone would make up that split much less become better than average.

 

You can't compare their ERA.......RP are put in positions to succeed way more often than SP (facing 1 batter or 2, only guys with the same handedness, etc). Also, since they only throw 60 innings, they can throw harder, etc. The vast majority of RP are guys that weren't quite good enough as starters, not the other way around. 

[kab21]

 

You can't compare their ERA.......RP are put in positions to succeed way more often than SP (facing 1 batter or 2, only guys with the same handedness, etc). Also, since they only throw 60 innings, they can throw harder, etc. The vast majority of RP are guys that weren't quite good enough as starters, not the other way around. 

Actually you can compare ERA's and make a guess as to whether or not Milone will see the same improvement when moving to the pen. 

 

And if you are going to consider Milone an above average RP'er then he should be in the 3.25 ERA range (.50ish better than average).  Do you think that is likely? 

 

I think no for both.

 

Or we could phrase it a different way.  Would you put him anywhere near the 8th inning (setup guy role)?

[Shane Wahl]

I am not discounting him, I would just like to see him traded.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I like Tommy Milone, but there's zero upside to him as a starter. He's a No. 5 on a second division team. He's a guy in no way would you ever want starting a playoff game. 

In 2012, Milone made 31 starts for a playoff team and started Game 2 in the ALDS, tossing 6 innings of one-run ball against a high-powered Detroit offense.

 

 

I don't get the "he's good enough to get 15 - 18 outs, but not good enough to get three outs" argument at all.

 

If you are good enough to be an average starter, you are certainly good enough to be a better than average RP.

That's an oversimplification. As the splits in this article show, Milone is a guy who gets better as he settles in and finds his groove. That's the case for a lot of pitchers with his type of profile. 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Actually you can compare ERA's and make a guess as to whether or not Milone will see the same improvement when moving to the pen. 

 

And if you are going to consider Milone an above average RP'er then he should be in the 3.25 ERA range (.50ish better than average).  Do you think that is likely? 

 

I think no for both.

 

Or we could phrase it a different way.  Would you put him anywhere near the 8th inning (setup guy role)?

 

I don't think ERA is even close to a good measure of a RP effectiveness. I have no idea if he'd be good in relief or not, other than that SP usually make better RP, and he's been a good, but not great, starting pitcher.

 

I do agree, though, he's under appreciated as a SP in this league. He just gets the job done, not great, but better than most that try. 

[markos]

 

You can't compare their ERA.......RP are put in positions to succeed way more often than SP (facing 1 batter or 2, only guys with the same handedness, etc). Also, since they only throw 60 innings, they can throw harder, etc. The vast majority of RP are guys that weren't quite good enough as starters, not the other way around. 

I agree that in general there are structural reasons for pitchers to do better in relief, and that as a general rule of thumb a starter will do better in relief. However, some of the reasons are specific to the pitcher, and in Milone's case I have some doubts.

 

1) Avoiding any times-through-the-order penalty. Milone doesn't have much of a penalty. 

2) Increased velocity. How helpful will it be for him to be throwing 89-91 instead of 86-88?

3) Minimize platoon issues. Milone doesn't have big platoon splits.

 

So I think he would pitch better in relief, but not necessarily a lot better.

[Loosey]

The more I think about it I believe my dislike of May being in the bullpen is more me feeling bad for him because he wants to be a starter and has earned the chance in my opinion.  That being said, this team is most likely a better team with him in the pen and Milone starting rather than vice versa.

[kab21]

 

I don't think ERA is even close to a good measure of a RP effectiveness. I have no idea if he'd be good in relief or not, other than that SP usually make better RP, and he's been a good, but not great, starting pitcher.

 

I do agree, though, he's under appreciated as a SP in this league. He just gets the job done, not great, but better than most that try. 

Forget about ERA.  Do you see anything in his profile that indicates that he would be better as a RP'er than as a SP'er?  There are reasons that SP'ers go to the bullpen (you have mentioned some) and get better.  Milone doesn't fit that profile. 

 

And I will ask this again.  Can you envision him as a good 7th/8th inning guy?  This is what an above average RP'er is.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The more I think about it I believe my dislike of May being in the bullpen is more me feeling bad for him because he wants to be a starter and has earned the chance in my opinion.  That being said, this team is most likely a better team with him in the pen and Milone starting rather than vice versa.

 

If those were my choices, I would agree......

[Mike Sixel]

 

Forget about ERA.  Do you see anything in his profile that indicates that he would be better as a RP'er than as a SP'er?  There are reasons that SP'ers go to the bullpen (you have mentioned some) and get better.  Milone doesn't fit that profile. 

 

And I will ask this again.  Can you envision him as a good 7th/8th inning guy?  This is what an above average RP'er is.

 

It is hard to see him in that role, but then I have a hard time envisioning him as a good SP, and yet he is......I just think we all under value him.

[birddog]

I fully agree with Nick and his assessment that May will be better utilized as a RP and we use Milone as a starter. All of Twinsland is hoping that scoring runs is not going to be the issue this season. With our projected lineup, we should be in the top third of the majors in scoring runs.

 

With that in mind, the use of May as a shutdown 7th/8th inning setup reliever should maximize his worth and prevent late inning leads from turning into losses. With Milone as a consistent sub-4-runs-per-game starter, he should win many of his starts if the bullpen can shut down opponents in the latter innings.

 

If TR gets an offer too good to pass on Milone before the season starts, take it; however, if we wait until late April or early May when we have a better idea of whom we can count on, we are trading from strength instead of from need. Lack of production or injuries to our SP could make Milone a very valuable commodity.

[USAFChief]

Concur Nick. Good article.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think the Twins discount Milone. They will be going to arbitration with him for a second year. They shouldn't discount Milone.

 

He has performed better than any other Twin starter since his first full season of 2012.

 

By ERA+ (adjusted for league and park)

 

Milone 99

Hughes 96

Santana 96

Nolasco 85

 

The varying ERA estimators converge with ERA by 500 innings and the sample for all of these starters is significantly more than 500 innings over 4 years. Steamer projects him to have a better ERA next year than any other Twin starter (with 10+ projected starts) other than Berrios.

 

He is the only lefty. He is younger than Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. He has performed better according to ERA+ going back 4 years. He is projected by Steamer to have better ERA next year and likely the year following. Why would anyone discount him?

[tobi0040]

I just think that most good teams have 2-3 pretty good pitchers.  We all seem to accept that Milone won't ever be a #2 starter and fit into that category.   So locking him into the rotation over a guy like May just moves us farther away from that.  I would be fine with Milone if it wasn't a Milone vs. May thing.

 

Now I know the Royals don't have 2-3 really good starters and won the WS.  But they did it with an exceptional defense and pen, things we don't have.  They are an outlier.

 

It would be intersting to see what kind of a reliever we could get for Milone.  Then compare Milone in rotation and May in pen vs. May in rotation and new reliever in pen.

[Kwak]

Much of the premise of this thread revolves around how TD posters latch onto a Twins prospect projecting him to reach the top.  It goes beyond pom pom waving to shouting from the rafters.  But, Milhone wasn't that guy.  He came to the Twins as a MLB pitcher (who was pushed down) to make way for newly acquired pitched who were deemed "much better" by their new team (OAK).  Whereas May (and others) came to the Twins as "saviors"--which unfortunately didn't happen.  If Santana wasn't suspended we wouldn't be having this discussion--May would have been in the bullpen the entire 2015 season.  So, no, Milhone isn't sexy (or great!)--but will (most likely) be dependable in taking the ball every 5th game and give the Twins a reasonable chance to win.  Is Milhone blocking anyone?  I'm not sure.  But if the Twins place two (or three!) rookies in the rotation in April and things fall apart...Yikes!  Especially if the OF contains has two unproven  players.