Article: Everything Old Is New Again

[Steven Buhr]

Today, I want to revisit something I wrote in a prior post. The subject (as so many things written by so many people has been) was centered around what the Twins should do with regard to Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton.

Maybe you take them aside and say, “Guys, if you’re healthy in April, you’re going to be Minnesota Twins. You may perform like Kennys Vargas or you may look more like Aaron Hicks, but you’re going to stay in Minnesota. You will not be sent back to the minors. From this point forward, you are Major League baseball players. Now get to work and act like it.”

The thing is, you can’t wait until spring training to make this decision. It wouldn’t be fair to Trevor Plouffe.

If Sano is going to step in as your primary third baseman, Plouffe needs to spend some time this winter learning to play left field. Maybe he and Joe Mauer could learn together.

For that matter, I’d tell Sano to go out there and shag some fly balls, too, because I’m not convinced the Twins won’t discover they’re better off defensively with Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at the hot corner.

What's that? You say you're one of the five or so people who have read everything I've posted this offseason and you don't recall reading any of that? Well, you're absolutely correct.

 

I offered those recommendations in October - of 2014.

• http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015-600x400.jpg
• Byron Buxton (Photo: SD Buhr)

That just demonstrates that I'm never wrong with my ideas, just occasionally ahead of the curve! Eventually, conventional wisdom (and that of the Twins' front office) comes around to my way of thinking. They really should just listen to me in the first place, right?

 

 

So was I prescient or premature? Based on the reactions I received to these suggestions 14 months ago, most would say I was premature - that it was simply too soon for Sano and Buxton to be plugged into the Twins starting lineup right out of the gate in 2015.

 

Maybe. But, with the benefit of hindsight, I'd say I'd still like to have seen what kind of results the Twins would have had if they had benefited from a full season of Sano-Buxton, rather than half a season of Sano and only enough Buxton to show eventual flashes of his potential at the end of the season.

 

Of course, based on the reactions we see to the Twins trading Aaron Hicks and their statements concerning plans to use Sano in the outfield in 2016, a lot of fans would say I was neither prescient nor premature, but I was simply wrong then and wrong now.

 

I've been critical of front office decisions with some regularity over the past few years (but then, who hasn't?), but I'm on board with both the trade of Hicks to fill a definite need at catcher and the plan to give Sano a look in the outfield.

 

Maybe Hicks will become another Carlos Gomez, emerging as an All-Star performer in another organization's outfield after escaping Minnesota. But, for me, Buxton remains far more likely to become that All-Star outfielder and he's not going to reach that level by spending more time in Rochester. He needs to be told he's the Opening Day centerfielder and neither he nor the Twins should waffle from that decision, even if he opens the year a little slow. He won't disappoint.

• http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SanoST15-600x400.jpg
• As a minor leaguer in spring training, Miguel Sano wore no. 24. Will he replace the player currently wearing that jersey with the Twins? (photo: SD Buhr)

A lot of people make a big deal of Sano's size, doubting that a guy weighing in at nearly 270 pounds has any business playing the outfield. Ordinarily, I might agree. But Miguel Sano is not your ordinary 270-pound athlete. If he can learn to take at least decent routes to fly balls and, obviously, catch the balls he gets to, I think he'll impress us. Of course, it's not a given that he'll be able to do those things. We have nothing to go on, positive or negative, to judge at this point whether he can do those things. But anyone thinking he'll be another plodding outfielder in the mold of Young, Willingham or Arcia are, I believe, going to be proven wrong.

 

As I wrote a year ago, it wouldn't hurt for Plouffe (and perhaps even Mauer) to shag some fly balls, as well. If it does turn out that Sano simply can't field the position, there will be a need for Plan B. If Byung Ho Park transitions well from Korea to the American League, the Twins are going to need to find another way to keep the bats of both Park and Sano in the lineup every day. It seems unlikely that MLB will grant manager Paul Molitor special dispensation to use two designated hitters.

 

There's a lot of uncertainty in all of this, but there are two things we and the Twins do know - Trevor Plouffe can play a solid third base and Joe Mauer can do the same at first base. We don't know if Sano and Park can do the same. I suspect we'll all know a lot more about who is capable of doing what by June, but for now, I'm okay with what the Twins appear to be planning to do - let the guys who have demonstrated an ability to play infield defense do so and bet on Sano's athleticism being good enough to fill the third outfield spot along with Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton.

 

General Manager Terry Ryan has a few things left to do this offseason to finalize his roster and if he gets overwhelmed with an offer for Plouffe, he can accept it. However, based on what we're seeing of the third base market, that seems unlikely to happen and he shouldn't give Plouffe away for a handful of magic beans.

 

But I have no problem with him betting on Buxton and Sano making him look smart a year from now. After all, not many people have gone wrong betting on the ability of those two men to do just about anything on a baseball field.

 

(This article originally appeared at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

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[drjim]

I personally am as fully on board with this article as I was adamantly against your plan last offseason.

[Han Joelo]

Totally agree with you…this time around.  Nice way to put it in perspective, though.  Cripes, to think that an elite prospect like Buxton isn't ready, or should be looked at through Aaron Hicks goggles is just silly.

 

As far as Sano's outfield defense, I look forward to watching him rifle it in.  Body of a blacksmith, legs of a gazelle.  Or, hell, a freakin rhino.  They're pretty fast.

[nytwinsfan]

I for one am not looking forward to Sano playing OF. I just really really hope he doesn't hurt himself running into a wall or diving awkwardly. Hopefullly half or more of his games will be at DH, 1B, or 3B filling in for one of the other three until a contender's 3B starts slumping or gets injured and we find a trading partner for Plouffe.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Totally agree with you…this time around.  Nice way to put it in perspective, though.  Cripes, to think that an elite prospect like Buxton isn't ready, or should be looked at through Aaron Hicks goggles is just silly.

 

As far as Sano's outfield defense, I look forward to watching him rifle it in.  Body of a blacksmith, legs of a gazelle.  Or, hell, a freakin rhino.  They're pretty fast.

 

When the Aaron Hicks decision was made, people pointed out the danger in how Hicks could be another Carlos Gomez (who had finally in 2012 put together his first decent season with a .768 OPS).  The response was quite similar to this.

 

I don't think it's wise to simply ignore history in player development simply because a guy was rated a bit higher as a prospect (lest you forget, both Gomez and Hicks were top 100 prospects at some point).

 

The Twins need to do what is best for Buxton in the long term, and I might add what is best for them in the long term. If that means that Buxton should be in MLB, I'm perfectly fine with it. If it means he needs more seasoning in AAA, I'm fine with that too. I personally lean towards the latter simply because he wasn't very good last year as it was clear he needed more time. If that means spending time in AAA working on hitting AAA curve balls, which are better than AA curve balls but not quite as good as MLB curve balls, fine. It will make him better at hitting a breaking pitch.

 

But please, let us not underestimate just how steep that learning curve can be simply b/c you have a kid that was higher rated on all the experts ranking lists. There's no harm in having a 22 year old kid spend some additional time in the minors so that he's more ready when he hits the majors.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't think it's wise to simply ignore history in player development simply because a guy was rated a bit higher as a prospect (lest you forget, both Gomez and Hicks were top 100 prospects at some point).

 

The Twins need to do what is best for Buxton in the long term, and I might add what is best for them in the long term. If that means that Buxton should be in MLB, I'm perfectly fine with it. If it means he needs more seasoning in AAA, I'm fine with that too. I personally lean towards the latter simply because he wasn't very good last year as it was clear he needed more time. If that means spending time in AAA working on hitting AAA curve balls, which are better than AA curve balls but not quite as good as MLB curve balls, fine. It will make him better at hitting a breaking pitch.

 

 

I also don't think it's wise to say "Because Carlos Gomez turned into an All-Star, therefore Aaron Hicks will as well." As much as you may want to compare the two, they have nothing to do with each other. Being afraid to make a strong move because you think a previous unrelated move went poorly is the height of folly.

 

I use that "you think" very purposefully.  Let's stop pretending like Carlos Gomez came back to bite the Twins in the butt - that was a fine deal.  His OPS+ for the next two years in Milwaukee was 76 and 82. If you want to broaden this a bit, we'll go with a four year span after the trade, where Gomez's WAR was 13.6 (most due to an insane 8.5 year in 2013 which more and more looks like an outlier). JJ Hardy's WAR over that same four year period was 12.5. The issue was never the Gomez for Hardy trade, that was a fine trade. The Hardy to the Orioles trade is where it went wrong. If the Twins learn anything from the Gomez experiment it shouldn't be "don't trade outfielders from a position of strength to cover a postion of weakness."  It should be "Don't get frustrated that Murphy isn't fast and then deal him so you can sign a fast base-stealing Japanese catcher."

 

Hicks is super different than Gomez. Gomez was too aggressive and prone to stupid mistakes but showed flashes of greatness at age 23. At age 25 Hicks still has never shown the ability to hit right handed pitching (70% of ABs are against righties) and has hit lefties well for 6 weeks. That was a fun six weeks but the Twins traded from a position of strength to find a solution to a position of weakness. No matter what Hicks does (though its unlikely he's more than a very good platoon outfielder, it is entirely possible he leans how to hit righties), the Twins will likely be set going forward with Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Kepler and even ABW coming up the pipeline. And just take a look at the free agent catching market for the past three years compared to the free agent corner OF market for the past three years. Even if several of those guys don't pan out and the Twins need to find a replacement, it won't be particularly hard to do. Catchers are impossible to find without settling for mediocrity or paying for Russell Martin's inevitable decline. 

 

Buxton's defense plays at the ML level. He should start there and move down if he needs to (at which point someone like Kepler can come up if they deserve it).

Edited December 22, 2015 by ThejacKmp

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

I'm holding out hope that Miguel Sano will channel his inner "Cobra" and we'll see a fair representation of Dave Parker in rightfield this season. Another big guy with a cannon arm. Sano will need to drop 20-25 lbs to get down to Parker's playing weight, but if this OF-experiment can work, why not dream big?

 

Add a little Joe "Pops" Mauer, and Brian "Scrap Iron" Dozier to the mix, and we might be singing "We are Family" in October.

[Mike Sixel]

Heh....I find this happens a lot to posts here. I am on board with your entire plan, sir.

 

 

[stringer bell]

Parker was a large human being, much like Sano. His listed weight was 230, but I'll bet by the late 80s, he was at least 250, if not more. He last played outfield regular in '87 at 35 years of age.

 

Fifteen years ago, another large man played tried to be the biggest ever to play his position. His name was Duante Culpepper, who played in three Pro Bowls and was an All-Pro twice before suffering career-diminishing injuries.

 

Finally, on to Buxton. I agree with theJacKemp, what is best for Buxton and the team long-term is what should be done. It may be best to start Buxton in Rochester, it may be best for him to start in center for the Twins. One mistake learned from Aaron Hicks would be to hit him down in the order to start.

 

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

I love the Dave Parker comp. Exactly what I've been thinking. However, don't forget that Sano has always been an infield prospect, and it appears his foot speed is why. Parker was not slow, IIRC.

 

As for Culpepper, Parker played outfield into his 30s because he wasn't being tackled a dozen times a week...

[Loosey]

 

I for one am not looking forward to Sano playing OF. I just really really hope he doesn't hurt himself running into a wall or diving awkwardly. Hopefullly half or more of his games will be at DH, 1B, or 3B filling in for one of the other three until a contender's 3B starts slumping or gets injured and we find a trading partner for Plouffe.

My concern is him hurting Buxton in a collision or himself and Buxton.  That would be a very Minnesota sports thing to happen.  Two biggest prospects in a generation run into each hurting themselves in the process.

[ThejacKmp]

 

My concern is him hurting Buxton in a collision or himself and Buxton.  That would be a very Minnesota sports thing to happen.  Two biggest prospects in a generation run into each hurting themselves in the process.

 

Knock on wood while throwing salt over your shoulder and crossing your toes. How dare you speak such blasphemy? 

[blindeke]

Please no comparisons between the Twins and the Vikings. #karma

[MileHighTwinsFan]

At this point Sano is a given and Buxton has to simply hit a few curveballs and take a few walks in spring training to be the starting CF.  Having said that, I expect both might experience some growing pains. Buxton, in particular, may not have seen the last of Rochester, NY.  

 

Nevertheless, it is exciting to imagine and opening day with these two in the lineup.

 

 

[savvyspy]

Sano is the outfield is going to be a short lived train wreck. There is absolutely no other team in the majors that would see this as anything but laughable. Sano has played zero innings in the outfield ever. He is closer to 300 lbs that he is 260.

 

Dave Parker was a big outfielder. Sano is is WAY bigger than Parker and never played the position. 

 

[big dog]

Based on overall athleticism, I would rather have Sano in the outfield than Kyle Schwarber, and Joe Maddon seemed to think Schwarber was worth the risk.  Schwarber had played 36 minor-league games in the outfield in 2014, none there in 2015 until he was called up by the Cubs.  Two-thirds of his appearances, including all of his playoff games, were in the outfield.

 

I didn't get any positional stats from Indiana, but I believe he was their full-time catcher.  I think Sano will be a much better outfielder than what I've seen from Schwarber. Sure, he'd be better at third, but I don't think this is as crazy as some make it sound.

[Dan Engebretson]

Cal Ripken weighed 220 pounds when most other SS weighed 175 soaking wet (I think Ozzie Guillen was listed at 150!).  Ripken ushered in a new era of large shortstops (A-Rod, Jeter, etc.) that could play their positions very well in spite of their large size and did not seem overly prone to injury because of their size (particularly true in Ripken's case).  Mike Trout (235 pounds) and Jason Heyward (245 pounds) are both exemplars of modern-day large outfielders that play their positions very well and don't have reputations as being injury prone.  Based on these and other examples I don't believe that simply due to his size that Sano cannot become an absolutely adequate defensive outfielder.

 

In terms of experience, we don't have to look past Danny Santana in 2014.  Prior to 2014 he had only played a handful of minor league games in the outfield, but when given the opportunity to play CF he was not an embarrassment in the field and his fWAR was 3+ (largely because of his offensive success that year). While Sano certainly doesn't have Santana's range, he does have a strong, accurate arm that should dissuade baserunners from taking extra bases and if he works hard with the coaching staff he should be able to develop enough outfield skills to at least make the  routine plays and keep the balls in front of him.  If he does not work hard (and I have no reason to believe he won't) he will not be very good; but, this is true even if he plays 3B or DH -- if he isn't willing to work hard, keep his weight in check so his athleticism can shine though, and refine his skills, he will quickly become an overweight has-been that wasted an opportunity to be a once-in-a-lifetime type player.

[REPETE]

 

I for one am not looking forward to Sano playing OF. I just really really hope he doesn't hurt himself running into a wall or diving awkwardly. 

I think we should be more concerned about the wall's safety.

[ashbury]

 

At this point Sano is a given and Buxton has to simply hit a few lay off curveballs off speed pitches in the dirt

FTFY.