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Article: Building The Twins 2018 Lineup


Seth Stohs

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The final touches are being put on the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook and fans can look for ordering details shortly after the new year begins. In the aftermath of writing profiles on every prospect in the Twins system, it's hard not to get excited about the direction the team is heading in 2016 and beyond.

 

Predicting the future can be a tough task when it comes to prospects, especially when trying to decipher who will be part of the next playoff team in Minnesota. There is a plethora of high-end prospects ready to make an every day impact but the crystal ball can be a little murky when gazing into the future.Let's do our best to try and have our own lightsaber Force vision of the future. When the Twins are ready to make consistent playoff runs, what will the line-up look like in 2018?

 

 

Catcher: This position is one of the hardest to get a read on as we look into the future. The Twins have a group of young catchers moving through the system. Mitch Garver, Brian Navarreto and Alex Swim could all play well enough to get some big league playing time. For now, it seems like Stuart Turner will be the team's likely option at backstop. The Twins have been aggressive with him during his time in the organization and he could make his big league debut this season. He has an experienced approach at the plate but his offense isn't his calling card. Turner is a defense-first catcher but that could be enough to give him the starting job by 2018.

 

2018 Prediction: Stuart Turner, Back-Up Plan: Mitch Garver

 

 

First Base: It's crazy to think Joe Mauer's contract will come to an end at some point but that's exactly what will happen after the 2018 season. Mauer can be a free agent as he will be in his mid-30s at the time with the potential to still have some baseball in front of him. It's hard to know if that future will be in Minnesota but there doesn't seem to be a situation where he won't be part of the line-up in 2018. There will be other options on the roster. Newly signed Korean slugger Byung Ho Park has experience at first and he could be getting more playing time at first in the next few years. As Miguel Sano continues to grow into his body, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up playing at first as well.

 

2018 Prediction: Joe Mauer, Back-Up Plan: Byung Ho Park

 

 

Second Base: Brian Dozier is coming off an All-Star season but he's struggled offensively in the second half of 2014 and 2015. Minnesota just signed him to a deal through 2018 and he will be 31 years old by the end of that deal. This makes it pretty easy to hypothesize that Dozier will still be there by 2018. The Twins do have other infielders making their way through the system. Jorge Polanco has ranked high on Twins prospect lists and he's had a brief taste of the big leagues. There are some questions about his defensive abilities at shortstop so a switch to second base might be just what the doctor ordered. If Polanco continues to show promise, the Twins might be willing to deal Dozier before his contract expires.

 

2018 Prediction: Brian Dozier, Back-Up Plan: Jorge Polanco

 

 

Third Base: The Twins have seen Trevor Plouffe evolve into a very good player at third base. The former first-round pick will be a free agent before the 2018 season so it seems likely that the organization will part ways with him. This could mean a shift for Miguel Sano back to the hot corner. There is talk from the Twins of Sano playing some outfield this season and that might be the only way to get all of their sluggers in the line-up at the same point. Sano will be entering his fourth big league season and he could still have something to prove if he hasn't played a ton of third base up to that point in his career. While someone like Polanco could switch from shortstop to third, the other options at third might be someone like Trey Cabbage.

 

2018 Prediction: Miguel Sano, Back-Up Plan: Jorge Polanco

 

 

Shortstop: Shortstop has been a black hole in the Twins organization. The Twins have added multiple players like Nick Gordon and Wander Javier over the last couple seasons to try to turn a weakness into a strength. Javier signed for a ton of money but he won't be ready by 2018. This means the Twins future shortstop could be left to Nick Gordon. He has the potential to be an All-Star and a top-of-the-order hitter. The Twins have been aggressive with him so far in his professional career so it wouldn't be a surprise for him to spend the 2018 season as the club's primary shortstop. Engelb Vielma is another top-20 prospect that has all of the defensive skills to stick at the position. If Gordon isn't ready in '18, look for Vielma to fit the role.

 

2018 Prediction: Nick Gordon, Back-Up Plan: Engelb Vielma

 

 

Right Field: Minnesota's 2018 outfield could be littered with talent. Top prospects like Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario will all need homes especially if they establish themselves as everyday players. All three of these players have shown the ability to play center field so two of them will have to get pushed to the corners and combine for a solid defensive grouping. Kepler seems like the logical choice for right field since he could grow into his body more and he's played the position in the minor leagues. After being named the team's minor league player of the year, hopes will be high for Kepler and he has the chance to be an All-Star. A back-up plan could be slugging outfield Adam Brett Walker, particularly if he keeps mashing home runs.

 

2018 Prediction: Max Kepler, Back-Up Plan: Adam Brett Walker

 

 

Left Field: With Kepler occupying right field, Eddie Rosario gets the reins to left field. Rosario is coming off a very good rookie campaign where he showed some positive signs at the plate. If he can continue to develop offensively, he could nestle snugly into the role of an everyday player who fits nicely into the second half of the line-up. Walker would be another back-up option for this position as he has played both corner outfield positions during the last two seasons. A middle of the order with Sano, Park, and Walker could be a murder's row for opposing pitchers in the American League.

 

2018 Prediction: Eddie Rosario, Back-Up Plan: Adam Brett Walker

 

 

Center Field: The land once occupied by the likes of Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter seems close to becoming the land of Byron Buxton. Baseball's top-rated prospect for much of the last two seasons should be a regular by the time the 2018 season rolls around. He has all the skills to be a five-tool player and he could be on his way to multiple All-Star appearances and potential MVP awards. There is still a lot left for him to prove but most of the baseball world seems confident that Mr. Buxton will be able to put it all together to be a well above-average player.

 

2018 Prediction: Byron Buxton, Back-Up Plan: Max Kepler

 

 

Designated Hitter: When Minnesota signed Park this offseason, they made sure to refer to him as a designated hitter. Twins general manager Terry Ryan made reference to his ability to play first base but the Twins have another player entrenched at first base so this means Park will have to get playing time at another spot. There are also plenty of other names on this list that could fill into a DH role by 2018. Mauer might be aging too much to play first base or a combination of Sano and Walker could definitely add some power to the DH role. As long as Park adjusts well to baseball in the States, it seems like the DH role is his to lose.

 

2018 Prediction: Byung Ho Park, Back-Up Plan: Mauer/Sano/Walker

 

 

What would your 2018 line-up look like? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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I really do not get the obsession with Stuart Turner, esp. when Murphy (who had a .688 OPS in the majors last season at the same age that Turner had a .628 OPS in AA) is under control until 2020 or so.  I can see Garver over Murphy as the starter because of his stick, but  Turner at this point is a worse prospect than Drew Butera was at the same age.   

Barring trades the rest are close, but I would have Polanco over Gordon as the SS starter (doubt that Gordon will be close to MLB-ready in 2 season).  Also I don't see Walker as a corner OF starter in a contending team, unless he gets his OBP close to .320 or so.   Kepler at CF is about as good as Parmelee at CF, so that should not even be option D.  I see Rosario as a great 4th OF (again that OBP issue) and from the current high minors crop.  I don't get the lack of love for Arcia here as well...  I'd have an Arcia/Buxton/Kepler OF with Rosario as the 4th guy.   I'd probably have Palka ahead of Walker (that OBP) as well...

 

So (barring trades, and I think that they should trade Dozier by then)

 

C - Murphy

1B/DH - Mauer

DH/1B Park/Vargas

2B Dozier

3B Sano

SS Polanco

RF Arcia

CF Buxton

LF Kepler

OF Rosario

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Seth,

This may be off-topic, but :

I would like to know what the opinions are regarding the Twins 9th round pick this year, LaMonte Wade from the University of Maryland.

His slash line at Elizabethton was .312 /.428 /.506 /.934 and he stole 12 bases in 13 SBA.

Hard to not notice.

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Seth,

This may be off-topic, but :

I would like to know what the opinions are regarding the Twins 9th round pick this year, LaMonte Wade from the University of Maryland.

His slash line at Elizabethton was .312 /.428 /.506 /.934 and he stole 12 bases in 13 SBA.

Hard to not notice.

 

Wade is very interesting. Put up great numbers in the rookie league. Not Max Murphy domination of the Appy League, but very impressive. Most impressive thing to me was his walk rate.

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I really do not get the obsession with Stuart Turner, esp. when Murphy (who had a .688 OPS in the majors last season at the same age that Turner had a .628 OPS in AA) is under control until 2020 or so.  I can see Garver over Murphy as the starter because of his stick, but  Turner at this point is a worse prospect than Drew Butera was at the same age.   

 

Maybe Cody will answer with his opinion. I think if I wrote this one today, I would agree that I think Murphy will be the starting/primary catcher starting in May or June of 2016 and hopefully keep that job for a few years. 

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2018 Line Up

1) Buxton CF (70+ SB)

2) Polanco 2B (traded Dozier) "Mr. contact" / Vielma (UTL)

3) Kepler RF (20+ HRs)

4) Sano 3B (will have traded Plouffe by 2018) (35+ HRs)

5) Park 1B (Mauer / bench guy by 2018) (35+ HRs)

6) Arcia DH / Palka DH (30+ HRs)

7) Walker LF (traded Rosario in 2017) (30+ HRs)

8) Murphy C / Turner C (35% throw out rate)

9) Gordon SS (30+ SB)

 

Berrios

Duffy

Jay

Gonzalves

Gibson

 

+Tons of relief help (flame throwers)

 

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Wade is very interesting. Put up great numbers in the rookie league. Not Max Murphy domination of the Appy League, but very impressive. Most impressive thing to me was his walk rate.

Thanks for the reply and for the information contained.

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Three seasons away. What will the Twins rotation look like, or who will the Twins trade to get a top-of-the-order pitcher because of depth.

 

Dozier will be expendable. Park, by then, will be a washout or tradebait. The Twins will have made a decision on Arcia by then. Two years out Walker will probably be the major DH candidate if he doesn't totally strikeout at AAA. 

 

Names like Gordon and Vielma could be prospect tradebait.

 

I see the Twins long-terming Buxton, Sano and Kepler. But Rosario? If he has a 2016 similar to 2015, he will be tradebait as the Twins look to rid themselves of Nolasco, move on from Milone, and decide if they want Kyle Gibson to remain a Twin for a contract or not.

 

The weak link is catching. The guy has to work with major league pitchers, throw runners out, and be durable behind-the-plate. If he hits or doesn't hit may not matter, as you can always have ONE weak link in the line-up.

Also, the Joe Mauer question going into 2018. They would have to make him a qualifying offer in 2019, give him a lifetime contract, or look to rade him before OR in his walk year, if there is any interest. Mauer's next two seasons will seal his fate...maybe so much so that NO ONE will touch his final year contract anyways.

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You say that Wades season was not a Max Murphy type season, I think it could have been better. The K% and BB% shows he could sustain his numbers, Murpheys 25% K rate showed he wouldn't hold up against tougher pitching

 

It wasn't the same... both were very good, but in very different ways. I prefer Wade's way, and I think he'll be successful, but it's just impossible to know for sure what will happen in a college guy's first full season.

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1. Buxton - CF

2. Kepler - LF

3. Sano - 3B

4. Park - 1B

5. Arcia - DH

6. Dozier - 2B

7. Rosario - RF

8. Murphy - C

9. Escobar - SS

 

Bench - Turner, Mauer, Walker, Polanco

 

I admit there is a decent chance Arcia won't make it here, and Mauer will be DH'ing instead. Also, I'm not sure Polanco will be around, unless Escobar or Dozier has a serious injury before he has been traded.

Edited by nytwinsfan
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When do you trade a prospect vs. waiting too long to where he has almost no trade value??  I'm thinking Arcia here but I'm sure you could go back over Twins history and find lots of names (Joe Benson) that just washed out and got released. At some point, if you have multiple prospects at a position you should pick one and trade the other before they are worthless. Or trade the veteran blocking them.

 

Along those lines I'd like to see some of the outfield depth - Walker or Rosario - traded, along with Dozier.  Or if Park is the real deal and hits 20 home runs, trade him to make some room.

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I agree: expect the changes to begin late 2016, early 2017.  If these MiLB players are really ready, it's time to move on.

 

2018 seem pretty close for for Buxton.  Frankly, if he's not a starting MLB CF by 2017, he should be elsewhere. 

 

Seth, earlier this year you responded to me that Buxton would have value if he was able to hit like Gary Petite.  Right now, he's not a 5 tool player.  And I think it too much to expect that.

 

 

Edited by HitInAPinch
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Seth, earlier this year you responded to me that Buxton would have value if he was able to hit like Gary Petite.  Right now, he's not a 5 tool player.  And I think it too much to expect that.

 

I don't know who Gary Petite is, but Buxton absolutely can have value even if he hits like .250/.310/.350 because of his speed and arm and defense. That said, obviously we'd all like to see more than that. 

 

There are a ton of 5-tool prospects. There are very few 5-tool big leaguers. I still believe that Buxton can get there, but obviously there are no guarantees in prospects. 

 

We can all acknowledge that he wasn't ready when he was called up. The Twins admit as much. Mientkiewicz said that he wasn't ready. He was called up for need, not readiness. 

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The final touches are being put on the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook and fans can look for ordering details shortly after the new year begins. In the aftermath of writing profiles on every prospect in the Twins system, it's hard not to get excited about the direction the team is heading in 2016 and beyond.

Predicting the future can be a tough task when it comes to prospects, especially when trying to decipher who will be part of the next playoff team in Minnesota. There is a plethora of high-end prospects ready to make an every day impact but the crystal ball can be a little murky when gazing into the future.Let's do our best to try and have our own lightsaber Force vision of the future. When the Twins are ready to make consistent playoff runs, what will the line-up look like in 2018?


Catcher: This position is one of the hardest to get a read on as we look into the future. The Twins have a group of young catchers moving through the system. Mitch Garver, Brian Navarreto and Alex Swim could all play well enough to get some big league playing time. For now, it seems like Stuart Turner will be the team's likely option at backstop. The Twins have been aggressive with him during his time in the organization and he could make his big league debut this season. He has an experienced approach at the plate but his offense isn't his calling card. Turner is a defense-first catcher but that could be enough to give him the starting job by 2018.

2018 Prediction: Stuart Turner, Back-Up Plan: Mitch Garver


First Base: It's crazy to think Joe Mauer's contract will come to an end at some point but that's exactly what will happen after the 2018 season. Mauer can be a free agent as he will be in his mid-30s at the time with the potential to still have some baseball in front of him. It's hard to know if that future will be in Minnesota but there doesn't seem to be a situation where he won't be part of the line-up in 2018. There will be other options on the roster. Newly signed Korean slugger Byung Ho Park has experience at first and he could be getting more playing time at first in the next few years. As Miguel Sano continues to grow into his body, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up playing at first as well.

2018 Prediction: Joe Mauer, Back-Up Plan: Byung Ho Park


Second Base: Brian Dozier is coming off an All-Star season but he's struggled offensively in the second half of 2014 and 2015. Minnesota just signed him to a deal through 2018 and he will be 31 years old by the end of that deal. This makes it pretty easy to hypothesize that Dozier will still be there by 2018. The Twins do have other infielders making their way through the system. Jorge Polanco has ranked high on Twins prospect lists and he's had a brief taste of the big leagues. There are some questions about his defensive abilities at shortstop so a switch to second base might be just what the doctor ordered. If Polanco continues to show promise, the Twins might be willing to deal Dozier before his contract expires.

2018 Prediction: Brian Dozier, Back-Up Plan: Jorge Polanco


Third Base: The Twins have seen Trevor Plouffe evolve into a very good player at third base. The former first-round pick will be a free agent before the 2018 season so it seems likely that the organization will part ways with him. This could mean a shift for Miguel Sano back to the hot corner. There is talk from the Twins of Sano playing some outfield this season and that might be the only way to get all of their sluggers in the line-up at the same point. Sano will be entering his fourth big league season and he could still have something to prove if he hasn't played a ton of third base up to that point in his career. While someone like Polanco could switch from shortstop to third, the other options at third might be someone like Trey Cabbage.

2018 Prediction: Miguel Sano, Back-Up Plan: Jorge Polanco


Shortstop: Shortstop has been a black hole in the Twins organization. The Twins have added multiple players like Nick Gordon and Wander Javier over the last couple seasons to try to turn a weakness into a strength. Javier signed for a ton of money but he won't be ready by 2018. This means the Twins future shortstop could be left to Nick Gordon. He has the potential to be an All-Star and a top-of-the-order hitter. The Twins have been aggressive with him so far in his professional career so it wouldn't be a surprise for him to spend the 2018 season as the club's primary shortstop. Engelb Vielma is another top-20 prospect that has all of the defensive skills to stick at the position. If Gordon isn't ready in '18, look for Vielma to fit the role.

2018 Prediction: Nick Gordon, Back-Up Plan: Engelb Vielma


Right Field: Minnesota's 2018 outfield could be littered with talent. Top prospects like Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario will all need homes especially if they establish themselves as everyday players. All three of these players have shown the ability to play center field so two of them will have to get pushed to the corners and combine for a solid defensive grouping. Kepler seems like the logical choice for right field since he could grow into his body more and he's played the position in the minor leagues. After being named the team's minor league player of the year, hopes will be high for Kepler and he has the chance to be an All-Star. A back-up plan could be slugging outfield Adam Brett Walker, particularly if he keeps mashing home runs.

2018 Prediction: Max Kepler, Back-Up Plan: Adam Brett Walker


Left Field: With Kepler occupying right field, Eddie Rosario gets the reins to left field. Rosario is coming off a very good rookie campaign where he showed some positive signs at the plate. If he can continue to develop offensively, he could nestle snugly into the role of an everyday player who fits nicely into the second half of the line-up. Walker would be another back-up option for this position as he has played both corner outfield positions during the last two seasons. A middle of the order with Sano, Park, and Walker could be a murder's row for opposing pitchers in the American League.

2018 Prediction: Eddie Rosario, Back-Up Plan: Adam Brett Walker


Center Field: The land once occupied by the likes of Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter seems close to becoming the land of Byron Buxton. Baseball's top-rated prospect for much of the last two seasons should be a regular by the time the 2018 season rolls around. He has all the skills to be a five-tool player and he could be on his way to multiple All-Star appearances and potential MVP awards. There is still a lot left for him to prove but most of the baseball world seems confident that Mr. Buxton will be able to put it all together to be a well above-average player.

2018 Prediction: Byron Buxton, Back-Up Plan: Max Kepler


Designated Hitter: When Minnesota signed Park this offseason, they made sure to refer to him as a designated hitter. Twins general manager Terry Ryan made reference to his ability to play first base but the Twins have another player entrenched at first base so this means Park will have to get playing time at another spot. There are also plenty of other names on this list that could fill into a DH role by 2018. Mauer might be aging too much to play first base or a combination of Sano and Walker could definitely add some power to the DH role. As long as Park adjusts well to baseball in the States, it seems like the DH role is his to lose.

2018 Prediction: Byung Ho Park, Back-Up Plan: Mauer/Sano/Walker


What would your 2018 line-up look like? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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Escobar is still young though. He has shown his consistency. Don't count him out yet.

Edited by jun
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C Murphy, 1B Sano, 2B Polanco, SS Gordon, 3B Escobar, LF (not on this team yet, we trade prospects for a good veteran outfielder, but I'll throw out Ryan Braun or someone like him) CF Buxton RF Kepler, DH Park. Bench will have Mauer who will still play 3-4 days a week. Bench will also have a catcher, like Navaretto/Turner/Garver (whoever can help the team the most at that point) and probably Vielma and maybe Walker. I don't see Arcia making it through 2016 spring training, let alone staying with the team until 2018.

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I don't know who Gary Petite is,

Gary Pettis, probably. Perennial Gold Glove CF, as you no doubt remember. When I looked up his records I see he only once had an OPS+ above 90, yet routinely racked up 500 PA and played in the majors 11 different seasons. An example of someone with elite defensive skills being able to carve out a career. Sure, he hit .236 lifetime, but it was an empty .236. :)

 

/ nah, he actually walked a lot, giving him a sufficient OBP.

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1. Buxton - CF

2. Kepler - LF

3. Sano - 3B

4. Park - 1B

5. Arcia - DH

6. Dozier - 2B

7. Rosario - RF

8. Murphy - C

9. Escobar - SS

 

Bench - Turner, Mauer, Walker, Polanco

 

I admit there is a decent chance Arcia won't make it here, and Mauer will be DH'ing instead. Also, I'm not sure Polanco will be around, unless Escobar or Dozier has a serious injury before he has been traded.

Seems unrealistic to prioritize Park over Mauer at 1B when the former has yet to see a major league pitch and the latter has a plus. 300 lifetime average.   I know it is all speculation, but the Mauer is dead and buried as an everyday major leaguer in 2018 theory is overly pessimistic in my mind.

 

Hard to fathom a $20+ million a year bench player.

 

 

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When do you trade a prospect vs. waiting too long to where he has almost no trade value?? I'm thinking Arcia here but I'm sure you could go back over Twins history and find lots of names (Joe Benson) that just washed out and got released. At some point, if you have multiple prospects at a position you should pick one and trade the other before they are worthless. Or trade the veteran blocking them.

 

Along those lines I'd like to see some of the outfield depth - Walker or Rosario - traded, along with Dozier. Or if Park is the real deal and hits 20 home runs, trade him to make some room.

the Twibs aren't unique in this regard. Every team has prospects that are done right and wrong and most of the time you don't really know until it's apparent to everyone else too. Especially mid and lower market teams of a decade ago who's main strategy is draft and develop.

 

I think Park was had for a song, for a reason. The Redsox supposedly had a good long look at him and didn't bid more than 12.9 M for a guy that hit over 50 homers a year 2 years in a row? I can only hope Bruno can work wonders helping the guy get caught up to MLB pitching.

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I've been saying for a couple years that 2018 was going to be the year.  It's a couple years out but interesting to think about.  I like the fact that we have some young guys with what looks like bright futures.  Not all will be as bright as we hope, but then there could be someone down there that takes off like a shooting star.  It's also nice that casual fans this last year and moving forward are getting to know some of these young players that are future major leaguers.  I haven't paid this much attention since Joe and Jake Mauer signed. 

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Well, since I absolutely love roster and lineup speculation, I naturally have to address this!

 

CATCHER: I guess I'm not sure why Murphy wasn't at least mentioned, unless you just don't believe in me. My gut feeling is Garver over Turner. All reports have him solid defensively and with bette offense. But I think Turner gets a bit of a bad and undeserved wrap in regard to his offense. Each of the last two seasons, he has adapted to his level and had stronger second halves than first. That is a sign of growth and potential. Further, he skipped an entire level after his rookie half season. Murphy and his potential makes this a three way competition. I just don't know enough at this point to pick a top two.

 

1B: I'm just not convinced Mauer will be the 1B at this juncture. If he is, that would be pretty awesome. It would mean he had returned to a close approximation to what he has been. I'm sorry, at this point, I just don't believe that. Park can play 1B, so can Kepler if another quality OF emerges, (Walker?), Sano, I still think Vargas has a shot here, as well as Plouffe. Look, if we're not going to trade now, we still have him under control through 2017. I think it's very reasonable he would be extended at some point, at least for a year or two, and could be part of the 2018 equation. IMO, I think Mauer could call it quits by this point, or be a reserve. BTW, this entire group is pretty much the DH category as well.

 

INFIELD: I'm sticking with Plouffe and Sano at this point for the corners, with Park. It's safe and makes sense. I still believe there is a bit of a "Plouffe long term" issue not yet resolved. I can't see this team without Dozier. He is just like, "Mr. Twin" at this point. Just, someone, please, give him a day off once in a while. Speaking of, I love the potential of Polanco. If he doesn't earn the SS full time, I sure hope he can accept being a great utility guy. I sooo hope Gordon is ready if Polanco isn't. But it would mean 3 levels in 2 years. Can he do it? Would be great if he could!

 

While not making any deliberate predictions, the Twins infield, primarily the middle infield, might be the most interesting spot to watch over the next two years or so. Dozier could still be Mr. Twin or traded and Polanco slides in. Or what if Gordon slides in to 2B because Vielma gets a little bigger and stronger and can actually hit MLB pitching to go with his tremendous defensive tools? And yet, Escobar and Dozier could very easily be a very nice starting keystone combo two years hence.

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