Article: Like It Or Not, May Is Bullpen Bound

[Nick Nelson]

Earlier this week, Paul Molitor confirmed what many of us have expected all along: Trevor May is ticketed for a relief role in 2016.

 

"Unless something changes, he is probably going to be a guy I want to keep out in the bullpen," the manager said in a conference call with season-ticket holders on Tuesday.Now, that isn't exactly an explicit guarantee that May will open the season as a reliever, but it's a big leap from the "We're asking him prepare for spring training as a starter and we'll see what happens" line that Twins officials have been sticking with through most of the offseason.

 

In many ways, this is a frustrating development, both for fans who were eager to see what the right-hander could do with a full-time starting gig, and even more so for May himself. There's little doubt that he would prefer to be in the rotation. If May feels like he's being unfairly victimized for rising to the occasion when asked to transition into an unfamiliar role last year, one could hardly blame him.

 

But it's also pretty easy to see and understand the team's thinking here. As we've discussed frequently, quality bullpens are becoming increasingly imperative in today's game, and in recent weeks we've seen contenders around the league take drastic steps to power up their relief corps.

 

May possesses a higher ceiling, and I would argue a higher floor, than multiple pitchers that will be competing for rotation spots in front of him. His emergence last year as a rare Twins starter capable of actually striking people out was a breath of fresh air, and contributed to much of the promise that we saw in this starting unit going forward.

 

Removing him from that mix puts a damper on the outlook for the rotation, but there are still quite a few respectable names in play. Even if you've completely given up on Ricky Nolasco (I haven't), you've still got Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios vying for spots. And it's important to remember that the 26-year-old May's fate is not being permanently sealed by any means.

 

If injuries strike or multiple starters unravel, stretching May out and reverting him to his natural role isn't all that difficult. Moreover, if some of the big relief arms in the minors turn the corner, May can go back to starting in 2017. Adam Wainwright came up for the Cardinals as a starter but spent his full rookie season as a late-inning reliever in 2006; the next year they moved him back to the rotation and the rest is history.

 

Right now, with those aforementioned relief prospects still uncertainties at best, the Twins quite simply need May more in the bullpen than in the rotation. While the latter is far from an obvious strong point, they do have some reliable quality within that group. The relief picture is far more jumbled, and that's a serious concern that could put them at a significant competitive disadvantage.

 

With what he showed last year in his first prolonged exposure in the pen, May has given us plenty of reason to believe he can be a shut-down setup man and perhaps the club's bullpen ace. As well as he performed when thrown into the fire, I'm very interested to see what he can do heading into a season with the preparation and mindset of a relief pitcher.

 

Would it be nice if the Twins went out and got themselves an impact relief arm via trade or free agency rather than further clouding a murky bullpen situation by gambling on a bunch of minor-league contracts? Yes, and they still might. Depth is good. But when they look at May, they see a guy who is every bit as capable as some of the veterans getting expensive three-year deals, and one who provides them with a lot more flexibility and freedom going forward.

 

For now, it's the right call.

 

~~~

Not everyone agrees, of course. Tom Froemming argues that Trevor May should be in the rotation.

 

What do you think?

 

Click here to view the article

[h2oface]

Rotation. Certainly things can change, but start the season in the rotation. The future of the bullpen is in the farm. If May shows he cannot improve as a starter, the pen is open to him. It would be a shame if the bullpen isn't taken seriously by the GM for yet another year. Hughes could at least start the first month in the pen. He is historically horrible the first month of the season. Every season but one in his career, and even in his best year of 2014, he was horrible in April. Let Hughes get warmed up in the pen, especially with all the questions surrounding him after the major loss in velocity last season and his inability to be in shape when the season started, and to stay healthy. It could possibly be that Hughes is the new bullpen weapon - what he needs to really help the Twins is a lessor load, and he may be fated to do the Wade Davis thing for the rest of his career (wouldn't that be nice).

 

May will not be entering the season "interested to see what he can do heading into a season with the preparation and mindset of a relief pitcher." He will be preparing to start, and making the preparations, in his mind, to start. He will be on a mission to prove Molitor and Ryan wrong. It is only in the managements mindset, or other fans, that the place for him for 2016 is to be a relief pitcher.

 

The right call, for now, for at least the first 5 rounds of starts, is May to the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I choose to not like it.  It's the wrong call.  May could have a Wagner Ceiling as a reliever.  While that's awesome, I think he could be a very good starter too, and 200 innings of good to excellent pitching is better than 70 innings of elite pitching.... so I don't like it.

 

The team would be better served trading Milone and his 3 remaining arb years, signing an elite reliever on a 3 or 4 year deal, and letting May start.  Cost wise, it's not that much more expensive.  It isn't even that much more risky. 

[sorney]

Rotation. Bullpens are littered with failed starters.  That's how they are built. May hasn't failed as a starter.

[Boom Boom]

Converting him back to a starter mid-season isn't so easy. When the Twins needed a starter last year, May was ruled out because he wasn't stretched out.

 

I think what's most disappointing is that the Twins traded Span and Revere to try to get front-line starters. But now Meyer is a bust, and although May has shown promise as a starter, he's being squeezed out of the rotation in an alleged numbers crunch.

[clutterheart]

 

Like It Or Not...

 

This is the mantra that all Twins fans must live by every year

[KGB]

This is what happens when you sign 3 mid-level free agent starters to long term contracts.  May is not going to be an elite starter, so they are not going to eat salaries on the possibility that May can develop into a 2 or 3 starter.

 

Let's just hope the Twins have learned not to continuing doing this with the other positions.

[HitInAPinch]

The starting rotation has 3 spots that I say are mortal locks:  Santana, Hughes and Gibson.  Obviously, the first 2 is a contract thing.  But also, we haven't seen enough of Santana yet and you just don't dump a guy who had one very good year, followed by a very hit-able year.  Gibson:  well, he improved over the previous year.  IMHO: that leave 2 spots in the rotation up for grabs.

 

The issue with May is few things: 

 

Other rotation options are available

He probably didn't get enough starts to prove he belongs in the rotation.  Because of....

Need.  And success in the bullpen.  The dude stood up to the challenge and was successful.

 

It's not the 1st time in the history of Baseball that a starter work some time in the bullpen before being returned to the rotation.  As I remember, Adam Wainwright is the pitcher most commented on in TD.

 

On the flip side:  Wainwright was 23-24 in a fraction of the first year and a full season in the 2nd in the bullpen.  He returned to the rotation at age 25.  May is 26.

[tobi0040]

Here is what I see going on:

 

-We have sunk costs in the rotation and we are not doing the right thing and treating them as such

 

-We could fix the pen with a quality signing or two.  We already have two good arms (perkins and Jepsen) and a bunch of higher ceiling young guys.  The offseason is nowhere near over, we could save this from being an issue and make up for the typical bargain bin signings

 

-As we always do, we favor the lower ceiling veterans over young guys with upside. Milone/Nolasco over May?  No thanks.  Winning franchises don't move their best arms to the pen for guys like this

[Major League Ready]

 

This is what happens when you sign 3 mid-level free agent starters to long term contracts.  May is not going to be an elite starter, so they are not going to eat salaries on the possibility that May can develop into a 2 or 3 starter.

 

Let's just hope the Twins have learned not to continuing doing this with the other positions.

Bingo, this is the heart of the problem.  Until Nolasco is gone, there is one rotation spot for Duffey, Milone, and Berrios.  They are not sending Hughes to the pen, at least not yet.  We will see how serious Hughes is about his performance by what kind of shape he shows up in for spring training.  If I were Ryan, I would tell him show up in shape or expect to be in the bullpen and May goes to the rotation.  

 

Was Nolasco’s poor performance in his age 31-32 seasons a product of decline or was injury?  IDK but most posters here say something along the lines of just eat the $25M owed to Nolasco or that it is sunk cost.  It’s not sunk because they could get a major portion of it back if Nolasco performs well the first couple months of the season.  If Nolasco performs as he did the 4 years prior to coming to the Twins, not only would they be able to move him but get an asset back in trade.  Fans expect their team to have utter disregard for money.  They are a business for god sake.  Suggest this theme to the business you work for and see how you are received.  The persistent insistence that money should not matter is incredibly Naïve when applied so generally.

 

We have 3 players who have starting jobs based on salary as opposed to performance.  They are Nolasco, Hughes, and Mauer.  They are going to get played the first 2-3 months of the season.  My hope is that the start of this season is their last chance.  Mauer gets a bench role if he does not improve.  Put Park there and replace the DH role.  Maybe we get lucky with Arcia.  Hughes to the pen if he does not perform and Nolasco either to the pen or cut.   Keep Milone or trade him, IDK.  I would be inclined to trade him a reliever which should not be a problem.

 

By the AS break, the rotation is probably Santana/Hughes/Gibson/Duffey/Berrios.  It might be a good idea to keep Milone around unless you believe Rodgers and Meyer provide adequate depth or perhaps this is part of the reason Dean was put on the 40 man.    The OF is Buxton/Rosario/Kepler.  The IF is Mauer or Park/Dozier/Escobar/Sano.  The DH is either Park, Arcia, or Vargas. By mid-season you add a couple of the power arms we have in the minors and that’s a team with great potential.  I will also enjoy watching this come together more than watching the 83-85 win team that is the likely result of following any misguided plan where we sell the farm to compete this year.

 

Plouffe is obviously traded in this scenario.  This is all very plausible and the team is finally positioned to contend once these young players mature a bit.  They also should have picked up additional assets for Plouffe and Nolasco if we are so fortunate as to have Ricky return to form.  If you are wrapped up in being in from to contend opening day you are destined for disappointment.  Berrios and Kepler are starting the year at AAA and Buxton will likely be there as well.   If you want to get there over the course of the year we are in good shape.

Edited December 18, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[Homer Hanky]

not only is May headed there... 

 

I think it is time... to face the music that with all these minor league signings and invites... 

 

We will tic them all off if we sign a big time lefty for the pen... 

 

So let's face the music and realize there is not going to be any BIG signings... 

 

Sad... 

 

 

[Platoon]

It will be interesting to see how he holds up physically if he ends up in the pen, which I am sure he will. Last year he had a few issues, which he claimed were pen related. But the real issue here isn't whether he belongs in the pen, or whether the Twins signed to many veteran starters. (They did). The issue is their refusal to deal with this roster crunch in a way that makes the team more competitive. And the continuing cow towing to veterans in roster decisions. See Pelfrey! May will be an improvement in the pen, but only at the expense of watching "The Usual Suspects" pitch.

[DaveW]

Ryan just doesn't get it. He continues to play mediocre veterans and guarantee them spots rather then give them to young and better players, this has seemingly been the Twins MO for ages and one of many reasons why they haven't had much success overall since 91.

[tobi0040]

 

Ryan just doesn't get it. He continues to play mediocre veterans and guarantee them spots rather then give them to young and better players, this has seemingly been the Twins MO for ages and one of many reasons why they haven't had much success overall since 91.

 

Yeah, we should have a good pen with Perkins, Jepsen, May, and Berrios.  The four of them will throw as many innings as Tommy Milone. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Dave,

 

I just posted the standings of all teams since 2000.  The Twins had a better record than all of the teams with equal or lesser revenue.  You have repeated this same theme for as long as I can remember.  I would have thought the hard facts would have finally negated your insistence that the FO and our team has been terrible.  You are expecting management strategies and the win record of a top revenue team so the real problem is that you don't get that is not reality.

So a management strategy of top revenue teams is to play younger, better players?? I think you may be reading into something that's not present in Dave's post. 

[DaveW]

 

Rotation. Bullpens are littered with failed starters.  That's how they are built. May hasn't failed as a starter.

Exactly, in fact, he has looked quite decent thus far and the ceiling is even higher, what makes it more frustrating is he is the one guy in the rotation who is actually capable of striking guys out. (I guess Santana is too)

[AWOLNATION_11]

"Unless something changes, he is probably going to be a guy I want to keep out in the bullpen,"

 

Still December.   Something can change.

 

I'm glad the Twins have a guy that is considered good enough to be an impact player in either role.

[tobi0040]

I dislike this move so much I would rather trade Plouffe for a good reliever and a prospect and keep May in the rotation.

[Nick Nelson]

Good comments so far. As I expected, almost no one agrees with me. A few thoughts...

 

I choose to not like it.  It's the wrong call.  May could have a Wagner Ceiling as a reliever.  While that's awesome, I think he could be a very good starter too, and 200 innings of good to excellent pitching is better than 70 innings of elite pitching.... so I don't like it.

That's really dependent on the relative improvements, isn't it? How much better is he as a starter than the guy he'd be replacing? And how much better is he than the reliever he'd be replacing?

 

For this year, as things are presently laid out, I think he's a bigger upgrade for the bullpen. Long-term I tend to agree with your view on getting more value out of him in a starting role. But I think it's really important to look at this move as temporary rather than permanent. 

 

 

Rotation. Bullpens are littered with failed starters.  That's how they are built. May hasn't failed as a starter.

And they're not giving up on him as one. They're using him in the capacity that they feel he helps them most for the time being. 

 

 

Here is what I see going on:

 

-We have sunk costs in the rotation and we are not doing the right thing and treating them as such

 

-We could fix the pen with a quality signing or two. 

Sunk costs, plural? Who can you make that argument for other than Nolasco?

 

I'm in full agreement that the Twins need to make more significant moves to address the bullpen, but also think you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with May's ability on the open market without a vast overpay. 

 

 

Exactly, in fact, he has looked quite decent thus far and the ceiling is even higher, what makes it more frustrating is he is the one guy in the rotation who is actually capable of striking guys out. (I guess Santana is too)

I'm honestly more concerned about the lack of strikeouts in the bullpen than in the rotation at this point. You can't just overlook that issue. They should have some starters capable of missing bats (Santana, Duffey, Hughes if his FB comes back, Berrios soon enough). 

 

[Shane Wahl]

Again, it isn't clear that seeing this in a positive light is all that rational. There are ways to fix the bullpen that don't involve removing the guy who is undoubtedly one your best three STARTING pitchers from the rotation. Like . . . that's a comically and tragically dumb thing to do.

[Mike Sixel]

If they don't expect to win the WS, or be serious competitors for it (which their moves so far do not imply they do think they are, imo), isn't this year kind of irrelevant, and shouldn't May be where he belongs?

 

If they do think they are serious WS contenders, shouldn't they be doing more to improve the team?

[tobi0040]

 

sunk costs, plural? Who can you make that argument for other than Nolasco?

 

I'm in full agreement that the Twins need to make more significant moves to address the bullpen, but also think you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with May's ability on the open market without a vast overpay. 

 

 

I'm honestly more concerned about the lack of strikeouts in the bullpen than in the rotation at this point. You can't just overlook that issue. They should have some starters capable of missing bats (Santana, Duffey, Hughes if his FB comes back, Berrios soon enough). 

 

Nolasco is probably the only one that is a sunk cost at this point.  Althought Ervin and Hughes could easily become sunk costs in short order.  Ervin is owed 3-41 and Hughes 4-49, neither looked good last year.

 

But it will be those contracts that say, let's move May to the pen instead because these guys are owed so much money.  This is a franchise that lets past contracts dictate reps.  That is not the right way to do it.

 

With regards to overpaying a reliever on the market.  Wouldn't a 3-21 type contract for Bastardo by a more prodent signing than 4-50 for a starting pitcher? 

 

Bastardo in the pen and May in the rotation = $8M a year

 

Nolasco, Ervin types in the rotation and May in the pen = $13M a year

 

I will take the first option.  Better results and less money

 

Edited December 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[DaveW]

Santana looked pretty good last year especially towards the end. I'm not worried about him, he should slot in as a #3 at least.

 

Hughes, if healthy will be "fine" as a starter as well.

 

Nolasco is a massive sunk cost. He should just be cut at this point, he is clogging up a roster spot. If you don't want to cut him, slot him in as the mop up man to start the year.

[DaveW]

Good comments so far. As I expected, almost no one agrees with me. A few thoughts...

 

That's really dependent on the relative improvements, isn't it? How much better is he as a starter than the guy he'd be replacing? And how much better is he than the reliever he'd be replacing?

 

For this year, as things are presently laid out, I think he's a bigger upgrade for the bullpen. Long-term I tend to agree with your view on getting more value out of him in a starting role. But I think it's really important to look at this move as temporary rather than permanent.

 

 

And they're not giving up on him as one. They're using him in the capacity that they feel he helps them most for the time being.

 

 

Sunk costs, plural? Who can you make that argument for other than Nolasco?

 

I'm in full agreement that the Twins need to make more significant moves to address the bullpen, but also think you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with May's ability on the open market without a vast overpay.

 

 

I'm honestly more concerned about the lack of strikeouts in the bullpen than in the rotation at this point. You can't just overlook that issue. They should have some starters capable of missing bats (Santana, Duffey, Hughes if his FB comes back, Berrios soon enough).

I'm concerned about K's in the pen as wel, however you can snag those off the FA market for pretty cheap deals 2-3 years 5-7 mil a year. Not so easy when it comes to starters, there is a reason why a guy like Samardzija just got 90 million and no RP ever has come close to that even that type of contract.

 

Basically If you have a guy who can strike people out as a starter, it is just foolish to move him to the pen, where you can "buy" or "trade" for strikeouts much much easier.

[nicksaviking]

 

Good comments so far. As I expected, almost no one agrees with me. A few thoughts...

 

That's really dependent on the relative improvements, isn't it? How much better is he as a starter than the guy he'd be replacing? And how much better is he than the reliever he'd be replacing?

 

For this year, as things are presently laid out, I think he's a bigger upgrade for the bullpen. Long-term I tend to agree with your view on getting more value out of him in a starting role. But I think it's really important to look at this move as temporary rather than permanent. 

 

 

And they're not giving up on him as one. They're using him in the capacity that they feel he helps them most for the time being. 

 

 

Sunk costs, plural? Who can you make that argument for other than Nolasco?

 

I'm in full agreement that the Twins need to make more significant moves to address the bullpen, but also think you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with May's ability on the open market without a vast overpay. 

 

 

I'm honestly more concerned about the lack of strikeouts in the bullpen than in the rotation at this point. You can't just overlook that issue. They should have some starters capable of missing bats (Santana, Duffey, Hughes if his FB comes back, Berrios soon enough). 

 

I believe May is a big upgrade over the current options in the pen, however that's only because the Twins at this time haven't taken one of the two most reasonable approaches:

 

A ) give the job to the young hard throwers, and I don't mean mop-up/long man roles, I mean the late inning spots that generally require strikeouts. Burdi, Meyer, Reed, Chargois, Peterson, the odds are against all of those guys flaming out. Throw them in the water and see who floats. If the batters don't need to be finished products to be called up into prominent roles, neither should the pitchers, particularly seeing as they generally have shorter periods of effectiveness.

 

B ) sign the requisite free agents that can do what May is able to do.

 

I'm concerned about strikeouts all around, but it's not going to significantly improve if May is replacing a guy like Pressley or Tonkin, he has to be replacing a guy like Fien. Same with the rotation, if the young guys are the ones striking guys out, it shouldn't be the young guys replacing other young guys, it needs to be the vets to get the boot.

 

Also, regarding the sunk cost discussion. I'm very concerned about Hughes. I think there's a good chance there was something affecting him last year, but if not and his FB velocity is going to be 90 MPH going forward, he's in a boatload of trouble, he already scrapped his slider and his curve isn't all that good. If his velocity doesn't come back I think he's going to get rocked again.

[tobi0040]

 

I believe May is a big upgrade over the current options in the pen, however that's only because the Twins at this time haven't taken one of the two most reasonable approaches:

 

A ) give the job to the young hard throwers, and I don't mean mop-up/long man roles, I mean the late inning spots that generally require strikeouts. Burdi, Meyer, Reed, Chargois, Peterson, the odds are against all of those guys flaming out. Throw them in the water and see who floats. If the batters don't need to be finished products to be called up into prominent roles, neither should the pitchers, particularly seeing as they generally have shorter periods of effectiveness.

 

B ) sign the requisite free agents that can do what May is able to do.

 

I'm concerned about strikeouts all around, but it's not going to significantly improve if May is replacing a guy like Pressley or Tonkin, he has to be replacing a guy like Fien. Same with the rotation, if the young guys are the ones striking guys out, it shouldn't be the young guys replacing other young guys, it needs to be the vets to get the boot.

 

Good post.  It appears right now May is a big upgrade.  But will he be a big upgrade in June?  If two of Burdi, Chargois, Reed, Meyer, Peterson, etc. emerge....is May going to be a huge upgrade over them?  The risk is if we hand May the ball in the 8th inning in April, we hear that he is not stretched out all year to move back.  The 8th inning is a more permanent move than say long relief

[Halsey Hall]

I'm with Nick on this one.  May belongs in the pen, at least to start the season, and with a lack of injuries, the entire season.  We have plenty of arms for the rotation, but really lack decent arms in the pen.  I don't want to see meltdowns from the pen like I did last year.  Pelfrey throws 5 shutout innings, Gibson has strong starts, etc, and we can't hold the lead for the last 4 innings. The second and third time thru the order seems to be a wall to often for the starters.  Perkins has a huge question mark on him IMO, Jepson I've got more confidence in.  A bridge from the 6th to the 9th will result in more wins and just maybe be enough to get us a longer season.  Also, May in the rotation would just me one more number for Berrios to have to overtake. 

[jun]

Like it or not, I would prefer May to stay in the back end of the bullpen. It would benefit the Twins greatly if May could appear in more games in critical situation if he could strike guys out at will. He still needs more experience though. It was painful to see him give up that grand slam...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

As stated, as long as the key word is 'temporary,' I can get behind this move. If May struggles in the bullpen, we can always demote him back to the starting rotation? The bullpen keeps filling up, however. The order of relievers is now Jepsen, May, Perkins, Fien, Abad. I agree with spy that Abad seems to be virtually a lock. I don't see Abad as an upgrade over O'Rourke but to each their own. No idea where all the other guys listed above fit in to this.

 

It will be interesting to see who Ryan cuts this spring. He's been adding more than subtracting, so there will have to be some surprising names.

[tobi0040]

Just think of this in the business context. 

 

You were really flexible last year and pitched well. 

 

You had a good attitude unlike a less talented veteran (Pelfrey). 

 

You are more skilled than people older than you

 

So we are moving you to a less important role