Article: Drafting College Relievers

[Seth Stohs]

In June, the Twins used the sixth overall pick on a hard-throwing, left-handed, college relief pitcher. Tyler Jay made two starts in his three season at the University of Illinois. Out of the bullpen, he was throwing a fastball as high as 97. He has three other pitches scouts believe can be at least average ,if not better than average, along with strong makeup.

 

Has the strategy of drafting hard-throwing college relievers paid out at all for the Twins to this point? We haven’t seen a lot of success with it at the big league level, but that doesn’t mean it was or is a bad strategy.Let’s take a look at the college relievers that the Twins have taken in the first ten rounds of the last eight drafts.

 

2008 DRAFT

 

Carlos Gutierrez was the 27^th overall pick of the 2008 draft by the Twins. He had been the closer for the University of Miami in their run in the College World Series. He had been pitching in relief because he had Tommy John surgery the year earlier. He started for two seasons before moving to the bullpen in the second half of 2010. He wanted to pitch out of the bullpen. In 2011 and 2012 in Rochester, he posted ERAs over 5.00 out of the bullpen. He spent a year in the Cubs system before calling it career in 2014.

 

2009 DRAFT

 

After taking Kyle Gibson and Matt Bashore with their first two picks (first-rounders), the Twins took Billy Bullock in the second round and Ben Tootle in the third round.

 

Billy Bullock was the closer at the University of Florida. He was known for working in the upper-90s. He did well in the low levels of the minor leagues, but he really struggled with his control. Before the 2011 season, he was traded to the Braves so that the Twins could keep Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond. He split time between AA and AAA in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, he served a 50-game PED suspension before being released. He’s played in several independent leagues since then, last year in Sioux City.

 

Ben Tootle was actually a starter at Jacksonville State University. He frequently hit 100 mph on the radar gun despite a slight frame. He fought shoulder problems, had surgery and continued to fight control problems. He was let go following the 2011 season and spent one year in independent ball.

 

2010 DRAFT

 

The Twins didn’t draft a college relief pitcher until they took Matt Hauser in the eighth round.

 

2011 DRAFT

 

With their second round pick, the Twins selected Eden Prairie native Madison Boer from the University of Oregon. There he had split time between starting and the bullpen. The Twins wanted to give him an opportunity to start. He made 19 starts for Ft. Myers in 2012 but then just three more before he was released in July.

 

In the third round, they took hard-throwing left-hander Corey Williams out of Vanderbilt. There was never any thought to making him a starter. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2014 season after having Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and got through the season. Fully healthy, he will likely start the season in Chattanooga but could realistically debut with the Twins by the end of the season.

 

2012 DRAFT

 

After taking Byron Buxton with the second overall pick and JO Berrios with the 32^nd overall pick the Twins selected Georgia Tech reliever Luke Bard With the 42^nd overall pick. There was a plan to give him an opportunity to start. Unfortunately, coming into the 2015 season, Bard had accumulated a total of only 19.1 innings. He had several surgeries and missed the entire 2014 season. He returned in mid-2015 with the Kernels and got through the season healthy. If healthy, he can move up quickly because he throws hard and gets great movement.

 

In the second round, the Twins selected left-hander Mason Melotakis out of Northwestern State University in Louisiana. Out of the bullpen, he was hitting 97. In 2013, he made 18 starts before ending the season in the bullpen for Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he made two starts in Ft. Myers before being moved permanently to the bullpen. His 2014 ended prematurely and had Tommy John surgery in October which cost him the 2015 season. He was just added to the Twins 40-man roster because of his potential to be a dominant lefty reliever in the not-too-distant future.

 

In the third round, the Twins took Rice University’s first baseman and co-closer JT Chargois. He hit over .300 in this time at Rice, but it was on the mound that he got noticed. Sporting an upper-90s fastball, he began his career in Elizabethton and made 12 appearances in 2012. He didn’t pitch again in a game until the 2015 season because of injury leading to Tommy John surgery. He came back and sat in the upper-90s, frequently hitting 100. He also has a good slider. Following the season, he was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster. He could surface quickly in 2015.

 

In the fifth round, the Twins took Rice’s other co-closer, Tyler Duffey. He had been a reliever his entire life, but the Twins felt that he could transition to being a starter. In 2013, he worked 121 innings between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. In 2014, he pitched 149.1 innings between Ft. Myers, New Britain and Rochester. And in 2015, he threw 138.1 innings between Chattanooga and Rochester before finishing the season with 58 innings with the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say he was their best pitcher the final six weeks of the season. Sure, he’s made just nine starts, but he certainly looks like he can be a solid mid-rotation guy, maybe more with that curve ball.

 

2013 DRAFT

 

The Twins didn’t take a college reliever until the seventh round when they took Brian Gilbert out of Seton Hall.

 

2014 DRAFT

After taking Nick Gordon with their first pick, the Twins went on a long run of college relievers again.

 

Nick Burdi was their second round pick out of Louisville. He was a bullpen guy all along and obviously will remain so. 2015 was a learning experience for him. He came one strong after his return to AA late in the season. He had a great showing in the Arizona Fall League. His fastball touches triple-digits, and his slider was much improved. With those two pitches, he has the potential to be a great reliever. And soon!

 

In the third round, they went with a righty Michael Cederoth. He had started some at San Diego State, but was a reliever his junior season. He was also hitting 100 at times. The Twins had him start at E-Town, and he began the 2015 season in the Cedar Rapids rotation. He made six starts and five bullpen appearances before being shut down for the rest of the season with “illness.” He will likely move to the bullpen where he again has a chance to dominate with the big fastball.

 

In the fourth round, they selected Georgia Tech lefty Sam Clay. The lefty began the season with Cedar Rapids in the bullpen, but he struggled with his control and went back to Elizabethton to start. He returned late in the season and made a few starts for the Kernels. He will likely continue to get an opportunity to start, but as a reliever, he can reach 97. At some point, it’s most likely that he will wind up in the bullpen.

 

Jake Reed was the team’s fifth round pick. He was a starter the first two seasons at Oregon before becoming the team’s closer his junior year. There may have been thought of having him start, but after seeing the way he dominated in Cedar Rapids and then in the AFL in 2014, as well as seeing his pitch mix, the decision to leave him in the bullpen easy. He skipped Ft. Myers and jumped right to AA. He really struggled and midway through the second half was sent down to the Miracle where he figured some things out. He came back to the Lookouts and pitched great in the AFL. Like Burdi and Chargois, Reed could debut with the Twins in 2016.

 

That wasn’t it. In the sixth round they took University of Texas closer John Curtiss and gave him a chance to start.

 

SUMMARY

 

While a big deal is made of the Twins taking a bunch of college relievers and making them starters, it’s not as common as we want to think. In these eight years, they did it with Carlos Gutierrez, Madison Boer, Tyler Duffey, Michael Cederoth and Sam Clay. A 20% success rate would be pretty good.

 

The rest of the power arms were and will continue to work out of the bullpen. As we have seen the trend in baseball the last few years, power bullpen arms are hugely valuable.

 

Injury has taken its toll on this group, to be sure. Five of the 15 pitchers have had major surgery that has cost them a year of development or more. When college pitchers, drafted at 21, miss a year of time due to injury, they aren’t going to debut at 22 or 23 the way many like to see. Taking care of them in their recovery, and bringing them back smartly, can mean they won’t debut until they’re 25, maybe even 26. And that’s OK.

 

Tyler Jay will get an opportunity to start beginning in 2016. We’ll see how that goes. When you take a guy with the sixth overall pick in the draft, you need to be very sure that he can start. In the fifth round in 2015, the Twins took hard-throwing lefty Alex Robinson from Maryland. He’s had bad control, but he can hit 96 and shows a devastating slider that needs to be controlled and developed.

 

There’s no question that teams like the Royals have shown how valuable a bullpen can be. If starters can complete six innings, the team has a good chance to win. With guys like Williams, Chargois, Bard, Melotakis, Burdi and Reed getting close, the Twins will hopefully have that kind of dominant bullpen in the not-too-distant future.

 

There is no perfect way to grade a draft. The strategy of drafting hard-throwing college relievers hasn’t provided any success to the big league club with the exception of nine starts from Tyler Duffey. Injury has delayed the timeline for several others. However, there is a lot of potential that is getting very close to contributing to the big league club soon. Maybe we can judge it again in five years or so.

 

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[DocBauer]

Duffey's emergence clearly shows the potential and reward to be had by drafting relievers and experimenting with them. It's not like you get to draft a Clemons or Verlander at the top of the draft board every year. Sometimes you have to groom a pitcher, not just draft one ready made. And to the Twins credit, the list of relievers that were given a starting shot really isn't that long.

 

Tyler Jay appears to be a different sort of experiment. While his velocity will almost undoubtedly dip to "only" the low 90's as a starter, rather than the high 90's as a reliever, the fact that he comes to the Twins with a couple additional pitches already in the fold with potential makes him more of a starting candidate to begin with. If memory serves, didn't he often pitch multiple innings in many of his games?

 

*side note: while Gutierrez was given a shot to start, wasn't that at least partially attributable to having more time to work on his secondary offerings for a relief role?

[Seth Stohs]

 

*side note: while Gutierrez was given a shot to start, wasn't that at least partially attributable to having more time to work on his secondary offerings for a relief role?

 

It was definitely part of it. He needed a second pitch and he was never able to get a consistent one. 

 

But there are other benefits to having relievers learn to start. 

 

First, most relievers aren't 8th or 9th inning guys and may need to work two innings, maybe even three innings from time to time. Second, the situations that a one-inning guy faces once in awhile, a starter will likely face that once or twice a game and have to learn how he can get out of it. Maybe in the second inning of a game, there are runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out. That guy has to figure out how to get out of that situations. So, they're actually able to work through more situations as a starter. 

[sane09]

"Five of the 15 pitchers have had major surgery that has cost them a year of development or more'

Do you know of any study on the % of drafted pitchers vs. the % of drafted college pitchers in MLB who have had major surgery before reaching the Big Leagues?

 

[sane09]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1347374-do-drafted-college-pitchers-have-more-major-surgeries-than-high-school-arms

[sane09]

Summary of above study:

"However, at least in my opinion, beginning a career in professional baseball out of high school gives a pitcher a greater chance for both longevity and success as a big leaguer"

[beckmt]

Hoping some of these work out.  It seems to be working as a strategy and the Twins should have a shutdown pen by sometime in 2017 if all works out. 

[The Wise One]

Pardon the derailment but

I went digging around on Baseball Prospectus for major injuries—either major surgeries like Tommy John, labrum repairs, etc. or injuries that resulted in at least 100 days missed—suffered by each pitcher taken in the 1999-2008 window within five years of being drafted.

 

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656599-2013-mlb-draft-are-high-school-or-college-arms-the-better-first-round-risk

 

 

Not every pitcher had injury data available, but I was able to dig up 41 major injuries for the 150 college pitchers and 29 major injuries for the 97 college pitchers.

 

That's 27.3 percent versus 29.9 percent, which is way too small of a difference to draw a definitive conclusion about which side is more fragile than the other—especially in light of the apparent incompleteness of the records (which is to be expected given the elusive nature of injury information).

[Han Joelo]

I've been quite the flip-flopper on what I think the Twins should be doing this offseason.  Looking at that list makes me think not signing any relievers to long contracts makes sense.  I'm probably overly optimistic, but I'd almost just leave a bullpen slot open and make it a revolving door for these guys to get their feet wet.  

 

And hopefully it wouldn't revolve too much.  

 

When you look at what Giles and Kimbrel cost, it makes you appreciate how valuable  these guys are.

[clutterheart]

The problem with drafting relievers from college is they have high effort deliveries and the wear and tear they go through is excessive.  So its no surprise that injuries got in the way of development and Twins should've expected that when drafting.  

 

Its seems that if you draft a reliever you should keep him in the bullpen and push him quickly through  - like they are doing with Burdi.  

 

Twins are not the only team drafting a lot of relievers.  

 

 

Essentially, by drafting college relievers, they’re putting themselves behind the aging curve. It’s probably time to draft some younger arms and turn them loose, because unless these college draftees are going to hit the majors after only a season or two in the minors, the window will have already started to close.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by clutterheart

[Tom Froemming]

I hope if the bullpen falters early the team considers calling up Jay as a reliever. The Cardinals have had a ton of success doing that and transitioning guys back to the rotation when necessary.

[Han Joelo]

Tom, I was kind of thinking the same. Neil Cotts/Tyler Jay vs Bastardo?

[tobi0040]

Some guys have some hope, like Duffey, Reed, and Burdi, etc.  But we have made significant investments since 2007, multipe comp and 2nd round picks here without a single player emerging in the bullpen for the Twins.

[Han Joelo]

Check that. Just read the Twins signed LH pitcher...Buddy Boshers.

 

I hope that is Buddy from the movie "Elf". He throws a wicked snowball.

[DocBauer]

I hope if the bullpen falters early the team considers calling up Jay as a reliever. The Cardinals have had a ton of success doing that and transitioning guys back to the rotation when necessary.

 

Perhaps like May in 2016 and then back to the rotation in '17?

[bluechipper]

I'm looking forward to the day when the Twins bring in guys from the bullpen who aren't described as "he's got a good low 90's sinking fastball and a nice changeup."

 

I want to hear "he's got upper 90's gas with a wipeout slider."

[Seth Stohs]

It's hard to predict injuries. One of the reasons Mark Prior was so highly thought of was because he was said to have flawless mechanics. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm looking forward to the day when the Twins bring in guys from the bullpen who aren't described as "he's got a good low 90's sinking fastball and a nice changeup."

 

I want to hear "he's got upper 90's gas with a wipeout slider."

 

And I think it is good to have a bit of a mix, but upper-90s is more fun.

[big dog]

Man, without the invention of Tommy John surgery...yikes.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Perhaps like May in 2016 and then back to the rotation in '17?

Yeah, I could see something like that. You have Jay as a starter in the minors to begin the year, and if the Twins don't look like they're going to be competitive you just keep him on that track. If the team is in contention again and in need of a bullpen boost, you give him a shot as a reliever.

 

The White Sox used Chris Sale out of the pen for two seasons when he was about Jay's age. They have a similar build, maybe it would be best for Jay to have a lighter work load the next couple seasons as his body continues to develop and get stronger.

[KGB]

 

I've been quite the flip-flopper on what I think the Twins should be doing this offseason.  Looking at that list makes me think not signing any relievers to long contracts makes sense.  I'm probably overly optimistic, but I'd almost just leave a bullpen slot open and make it a revolving door for these guys to get their feet wet.  

 

And hopefully it wouldn't revolve too much.  

 

When you look at what Giles and Kimbrel cost, it makes you appreciate how valuable  these guys are.

I agree, lets not make the same mistakes we have with the starting pitching. Start building up the young bullpen, instead of bring in veterans on multi year contract.  We have multiple pitchers age 23-26 who should be able to contribute 60 innings a year at the major league level. 

 

I don't need them to sign the Nolasco of relief pitching just because we want a veteran in the bullpen.

[kab21]

I am just hoping that a couple of these prospects get a fair shot with the team instead of some entirely mediocre vet.  The Twins have had guys that were great in the minors but they could never find a way into the bullpen while someone with no upside threw batting practice as the long man.

 

I think it is difficult to predict who is safe from undergoing TJ but I am not so sure that it is difficult to predict some likely TJ patients.  The first time I saw Bard throw I couldn't understand how he even made it through the season with his arm motion.  I can't claim to understand pitching mechanics but my elbow hurt just watching the film.  Of course there are pitchers like Sale that people used to say could never hold up as a starter that have not had any problems.

 

But I want to see some results (beyond Duffey) that investing a sizable # of draft picks in college RP'ers was a good idea.  At least Duffey has come through though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The rest of the power arms were and will continue to work out of the bullpen. As we have seen the trend in baseball the last few years, power bullpen arms are hugely valuable.

Then why do power arms on the free agent market often sign for as little as 2/11 (Mark Lowe)?  Even Andrew Miller, arguably one of the best in the league, only signed for 4/36.

 

It's obviously nice to have power bullpen arms, and they can help you win games, but it's not clear teams should be investing high draft picks in them, particularly with the Twins success rate in that department so far.

 

Among the oft-cited Royals pen, none of them were drafted high as exclusive relievers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's hard to predict injuries. One of the reasons Mark Prior was so highly thought of was because he was said to have flawless mechanics. 

Didn't the Twins admit a few years ago that they weren't properly scouting for pitcher health in the draft?

 

http://www.sportsbusinessnews.com/node/2020

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I hope if the bullpen falters early the team considers calling up Jay as a reliever. The Cardinals have had a ton of success doing that and transitioning guys back to the rotation when necessary.

To call up Jay early this season would be quite the rush, though, I don't think the Cardinals have quite done that.  I think all of their examples already had success as starters at AAA before joining the MLB pen.  Hard to see Jay on that path this year -- he's going to need significant starter innings at a lower level if there is any hope for him in that role.  And from there, it might be very hard to gauge when he might be ready to skip up to the MLB pen (and risky because if he wasn't ready for the MLB pen, you'd be starting his option clock early).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, I could see something like that. You have Jay as a starter in the minors to begin the year, and if the Twins don't look like they're going to be competitive you just keep him on that track. If the team is in contention again and in need of a bullpen boost, you give him a shot as a reliever.

 

The White Sox used Chris Sale out of the pen for two seasons when he was about Jay's age. They have a similar build, maybe it would be best for Jay to have a lighter work load the next couple seasons as his body continues to develop and get stronger.

Difference is Jay was a college reliever.  He's probably not going to be on a starting pitcher fast track through the minors.  He probably won't reach AAA as quickly as Sale or the Cardinals pitchers, which will make it harder to predict if he could actually make the immediate jump to the MLB pen.

 

Heck, if he is still starting come July, they will probably have to think about shutting him down due to an excess of innings rather than aggressively promoting him.

[mikelink45]

The only conclusion this gives me is that we have a lot of arms and our crisis in the bullpen is a crisis of trust.  TR likes the vets and the Cards win with young arms.  Anyone able to give TR a wakeup call?

[Mike Sixel]

I have been opposed to the strategy, because it is not the path that most MLB RP follow. So far, it has produced a couple months of 1 pitcher, in a mutli year strategy. The other reason I'm opposed is that once the RP get here, the Twins try to change everything that made them good in college, and try to make them starters, and then they sit in the minors for multiple years (increasing the likelihood they get injured before ever pitching in the majors).

 

it is 100% clear that some of these guys would never be starters, yet they kept trying to make them starters. Also, weren't a couple of them hurt in college, heck I think one had already had surgery.

 

Until they trust the young guys, and what made them successful, and let them come to MN, it is a failed strategy. 

[tobi0040]

 

Then why do power arms on the free agent market often sign for as little as 2/11 (Mark Lowe)?  Even Andrew Miller, arguably one of the best in the league, only signed for 4/36.

 

It's obviously nice to have power bullpen arms, and they can help you win games, but it's not clear teams should be investing high draft picks in them, particularly with the Twins success rate in that department so far.

 

Among the oft-cited Royals pen, none of them were drafted high as exclusive relievers.

 

 

Instead of going cheap on the pen, maybe a 4/36 for Miller makes a ton of sense in the context of then being able to use May in the rotation (versus a huge contract for a wild card like Nolasco or Ervin)

[Lenny Green]

I'm also suspicious of the top end velocity on some of these guys.  I saw Clay start later in the year in Cedar Rapids and my recollection is that he had just modest speed, say topping at 90-91.  It looked like he'd need a running start to hit 97.