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Article: What Holes Still Must Be Filled?


Nick Nelson

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The bullpen looks fine, especially with all that depth. I would consider McGee and Storen, but I wouldn't overpay for anyone else. 

 

The bullpen looks a lot like the horrible 2015 bullpen.   And one Perkins' health issue away from being the worst in the majors...

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For the win-now group, maybe we should just send a package centered around Gibson to the Rockies for Carlos Gonzalez and a package including Milone to the Nationals for Storen.  This group would probably win more games in 2016.  Plouffe, Park, and Mauer could rotate between 1B/DH, and cover Sano's days off.

 

1. Buxton  CF

2. Rosario  LF

3. Sano  3B

4. Gonzalez  RF

5. Dozier  2B

6. Park  DH

7. Mauer  1B

8. Murphy  C

9. Escobar  SS

 

Bench: Suzuki, Nunez, Santana, Plouffe

 

1. Santana

2. Hughes

3. May

4. Duffey

5. Nolasco/Berrios

 

Cl: Storen

Set-up: Perkins, Jepsen

Middle: Fien, Tonkin, O'Rourke, Pressley

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The Twins definitely have above-average depth all over. I think last year's club was pretty fortunate as far as health goes. There were some guys here and there that missed time, but overall they were pretty lucky. I hope they hang on to the depth for insurance in case things don't go as smoothly.

 

It's still crazy to me what happened with Arcia, Santana and Vargas last season. Who saw that coming? Coming into the year, I could've easily seen each of them getting 500 plate appearances, instead they combined for just 526 PAs.

 

Makes you wonder if any of the expected everyday guys will fade or if anyone will show up earlier than expected like Rosario did last year. It's going to be fun to follow how the roster shapes up throughout the year.

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Quite possibly the most sensible, simplest, and clearest analysis of the entire Sano, Plouffe issue.

It is also possible that over the course of the last couple years they have come to the conclusion that Sano not going to make it as a ML 3B or they think he is suspect so now might be the time to try this experiment.  Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of Sano to the outfield but like always we just don't have all the information.

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Back to the basic title, "what holes need to be filled?"......

 

If the Twins are truly inclined to have Buxton begin the season in Rochester, obviously ST will sort some issues out, then we MUST find another option that can be a legitimate player there. If we don't, we will literally be starting a 4th straight season with a question mark in CF to begin the season. What kind of winning or competitive team has ever done that? Davis would be an excellent option, though I don't believe he's the only option. But solid, available, not overly expensive, not in a position to expect or demand a permanent gig? He might be the best choice.

 

The team, as currently constructed, has exactly ZERO LHRP options that are proven. This also must change. Bastardo would be a perfect option. His signing will help the bullpen balance and depth immensely and not cost a fortune. Barring that, the team would have to look at lesser option, make a trade, or look/hope for a Swindell or Reyes starter converted to reliever option. Isn't it easier to just sign the proven commodity rather than trade prospects?

 

Rotation speaking, Berrios opens in the minors barring a run of injuries or the such. Not for service time, but because the depth is enough that we probably need to sort a few things out. Does May open in the rotation, where he should be, and where I want him? Or, with Hughes, Santana, Gibson and Duffey already there, does May go straight to the bullpen for 2016 and have Milone and Nolasco fight it out for the 5th starting spot? 5th starter or long relief is the only way Nolasco should be kept around.

 

Solid career pitcher. It just hasn't worked here. It's time to part ways and move on for both parties, whatever that takes. I've read about not wanting to trade low. But, would you dare put him in a higher position just to attempt to raise trade value at the risk of the team's record, or the regression of another younger, better pitcher? I'd sure like to think the answer is no.

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As I continue to reflect on the failure of Terry Ryan to be the kind of general manager who can move a team in todays market I read this article http://baseball-players.pointafter.com/stories/8852/ranking-mlb-catchers-worst-best-2015?utm_medium=cm&utm_source=outbrain&utm_campaign=ao.cm.ob.dt.8852&utm_term=dt&utm_content=2787525#8-Kurt-Suzuki-Minnesota-Twins and saw AJ ranked 29 to Suzuki's 22 and think of how AJ was on his list to improve this position. 

 

And then I wonder what would have been the rank if Mauer had found a way to stay behind the plate.

The #2 ranked catcher was Francisco Cervelli, who the Yankees traded to Pittsburgh for a LH relief pitcher, Justin Wilson 13 months ago. He was to be a backup in Pittsburgh, as they still hoped to keep  Russell Martin. The NY Post noted:

"In Cervelli, the Pirates receive a catcher who many in the game think can be a starter if he can ever stay healthy. He is viewed as a strong defender with potential in his bat. He hit .301 last year in 49 games. However, he was just about to enter the second year of arbitration and the Yankees potentially did not want to pay $1.5 million or more for a backup, particularly because they love Murphy’s defensive game, too, and think his offense has room to grow."

 

 

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*A second note on the OF:*  

 

I don't see a problem with Arcia as the 4th OF, and I think it likely. He can play a corner OF spot, DH, perhaps PH here and there. With Rosario and Santana both able to play CF, the 4th OF doesn't have to be the classic 3 position player in this case. 

 

If you are Molly, you have to be a bit creative, but you move Arcia, Sano, Plouffe, Park and Mauer in and out of the lineup at the OF corner, 3B, 1B and DH so that matchups are favorable, everyone plays, no-one sits often, but you avoid Arcia and Sano in the OF together as much as possible.

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Major League Ready,

 

I get that we may have learned he was not going to hack it at 3b. But that is my point, it would not have killed us to give him 15 games in left in case we cross that bridge. The thought of handing the guy an OF glove in ST and saying go get em is unnecessary.

 

I still believe TR is lining up a trade for Plouffe.

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So many uncertainties, it's impossible to say how it will shake out in spring. It seems silly to continue down the road with fading starters like Nolasco and Hughes, while Tommy Milone seems better suited to long relief and spot starts. I'd put them all in the pen to see if their numbers improve with fewer times through opponents' batting orders. Hughes especially could shine in late inning roles, possibly as a closer. That would leave the starting ro open for Santana, May, Gibson, Duffey and Berrios, any of whom could break out for 180 to 200 innings. Meanwhile, you put three good vets in the pen, you can forget about iffy middle relievers for a year or three. Add Burdy, Meyer to Perk and Jepsen, maybe Rogers for loogy, that's looking not bad.

 

Position players is such a mess right now, not even worth guessing. Dozier at second.

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Major League Ready,

I get that we may have learned he was not going to hack it at 3b. But that is my point, it would not have killed us to give him 15 games in left in case we cross that bridge. The thought of handing the guy an OF glove in ST and saying go get em is unnecessary.

I still believe TR is lining up a trade for Plouffe.

I hope you are right and it sure seems like a better path than what is being floated. 

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That outfield will be an absolute disaster. Defensively, and possibly even offensively (assuming Rosario and Sano hit some kind of regression).

 

If only they had a versatile guy, who could play all 3 positions well, with speed and an arm. Someone with an OK approach at the plate who could supply a little pop occasionally. If only they weren't so damned hard to find. If only they were as readily available as part-time catchers are this offseason....

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I get that we may have learned he was not going to hack it at 3b. But that is my point, it would not have killed us to give him 15 games in left in case we cross that bridge. The thought of handing the guy an OF glove in ST and saying go get em is unnecessary.

I know that this post wasn't addressed to me, but I have a different take here.  

 

Not only did the Twins not give Sano any games in the OF for last September, they also (supposedly) forbade him from playing the outfield in the Winter League during games, but (supposedly) he practiced the outfield.  

 

My reading is that the Twins want to ease Sano into outfield without the risk and the pressure of live-games.  There's also been talk (I think from the Twins themselves) of Sano shedding some weight in preparation for Spring Training--after a year of DHing, he might not have been in the best shape to avoid injury given the responsibility of so much ground to cover.   

 

On Plouffe, I think the Twins overlooked the guy becoming a plus defender at the hot corner, which has a lot of value, especially with Escobar's limited range (even if he's generally steady).  

Edited by PseudoSABR
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That outfield will be an absolute disaster. Defensively, and possibly even offensively (assuming Rosario and Sano hit some kind of regression).

If only they had a versatile guy, who could play all 3 positions well, with speed and an arm. Someone with an OK approach at the plate who could supply a little pop occasionally. If only they weren't so damned hard to find. If only they were as readily available as part-time catchers are this offseason....

Kepler?  Buxton?  The minor league depth has flaws to begin the season for sure.  The Twins need to buy themselves a couple months until one or both could be ready.  But they shouldn't overpay for it.  The outfield defense will go from being a net negative to a net positive with Buxton in center, which is an eventuality.   The problem is real on opening day, but ultimately ephemeral. 

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Doc,

What is this moving guys around based on matchups that you speak of?[/quote This "moving guys around" thingy is something I perfected years ago! I originally called it "Spitoon" but found that word was not only taken, it was unsanitary. So I coined the phrase PLATOON. I also copyrighted that word, so The Twins would have to make a payment every time they used it. I am still waiting for the first check! :)

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The Twins have six young outfielders to fill three positions - Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Kepler, and Benson.  The three that perform the best will be the starters out of spring training. Each and every one them should have the motivation and incentive to be somewhere training right now, having a 100 balls a day hit to them in the outfield, practicing their hitting under a good coach. The three starters are going to make a lot of money some day, if that doesn't give them incentive, then nothing will.

 

You read it all the time here on TD about 'too many old guys (Hunter, Nolasco, Burton, etc) blocking the young guys'. Now we'll get to see the results of having only young guys competing in the outfield. 

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The Twins have six young outfielders to fill three positions - Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Kepler, and Benson.  The three that perform the best will be the starters out of spring training. Each and every one them should have the motivation and incentive to be somewhere training right now, having a 100 balls a day hit to them in the outfield, practicing their hitting under a good coach. The three starters are going to make a lot of money some day, if that doesn't give them incentive, then nothing will.

 

You read it all the time here on TD about 'too many old guys (Hunter, Nolasco, Burton, etc) blocking the young guys'. Now we'll get to see the results of having only young guys competing in the outfield. 

 

I agree with you, save Benson.  He is not young (28 opening day) nor a prospect.  He has played 21 MLB games, with the Twins in 2011. 

 

Kind of a weird signing if you ask me. 

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I know that this post wasn't addressed to me, but I have a different take here.  

 

Not only did the Twins not give Sano any games in the OF for last September, they also (supposedly) forbade him from playing the outfield in the Winter League during games, but (supposedly) he practiced the outfield.  

 

My reading is that the Twins want to ease Sano into outfield without the risk and the pressure of live-games.  There's also been talk (I think from the Twins themselves) of Sano shedding some weight in preparation for Spring Training--after a year of DHing, he might not have been in the best shape to avoid injury given the responsibility of so much ground to cover.   

 

On Plouffe, I think the Twins overlooked the guy becoming a plus defender at the hot corner, which has a lot of value, especially with Escobar's limited range (even if he's generally steady).  

This would be an example of Professor Harold Hill's "think system."  You imagine or "think" of yourself performing in such a way that you learn to do so.

 

Rumor has it the Twins are using Hill's system on a handful of relief pitchers to "think" of themselves as left handed and highly successful. :)

 

 

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I agree with you, save Benson.  He is not young (28 opening day) nor a prospect.  He has played 21 MLB games, with the Twins in 2011. 

 

Kind of a weird signing if you ask me. 

Both Mastro and Benson should be considered organizational depth. If they got a chance with the Twins it would be a Cinderella story, particularly Benson. In my limited contact with both those guys, they seem like good people. I shook both their hands in spring training a few years back. Mastro was pretty nice on what had to be a bad day--the day he was sent to minor league camp and Benson mingled well with the fans looking for autographs

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It really surprises me how most give Phil Hughes a pass, especially with how horrible he is in April. Those games count as much as all the others in the season, and there is no reason to keep making the same mistake, after his problem is identified, over and over and over again. Forget the drastic loss of velocity and his coming back from injury. Just consider his history in April. At least put him in the bullpen for the start of the year. May could be entrenched in the rotation by then, or not, and Hughes could be the answer for the pen. Or not. At least you are trying to do something different and trying to stop the same April results from happening yet again.

 

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." 

~ Albert Einstein

Edited by h2oface
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