Article: What Holes Still Must Be Filled?

[FlsPrpht]

Starting catch was a problem in 2014 at the same time they signed Suzuki to a long term deal. 

[Brandon]

Last season I think 8 starting pitchers had 8 or more starts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Really? Because last year both May and Pelfrey were out of the rotation that the Twins announced at the end of spring training, and were both in it two weeks later.

 

You are drastically underestimating the amount of rotation turnover that takes place throughout a season, even in the early weeks. 

I don't know if it is likely we will have another suspension and injury the first week of the season, though.  The 2014 rotation lasted over a month, and after Deduno subbed for an epically bad Pelfrey, there were no other changes until almost midseason.

 

Even in 2013, with a lot of marginal starters, the rotation was set for almost the first two months, save for Hendriks taking Diamond's first few turns after offseason surgery.  In 2012, the opening rotation didn't see much change either until Liriano got demoted to the pen in mid-May.

Edited December 14, 2015 by spycake

[Boom Boom]

I don't see any holes. We're locked and loaded.

 

Nolasco will be the comeback player of the year. We've got top relief prospects breaking down the door, so no reason to shop for bullpen help. No concern at all that Arcia's 2015 is a trend. And outfield defense is overrated anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No one is talking about Ryan Pressly.  He was an effective reliever last year until injured.  Personally, I see his injuries as one of the reasons the Twins didn't get the WC.  Is he being forgotten because the injury is expected to linger into 2016?

I think if Pressly stayed healthy, there's a decent chance we wouldn't have ponied up to add Jepsen, so I'm not sure it was much of a factor. Also, while generally effective, he still wasn't seeing many high-leverage spots, and was only sporting a 7.2 K/9 rate, a 3.9 BB/9, etc. He still profiles as more of a middle to back end reliever, which the Twins have no shortage of; he's got an option remaining, and I suspect we may use it.

[AWOLNATION_11]

In all likelihood Arcia will be lifted late for defense, hopefully reducing the negative impact there.   Unless Arcia's bat shows to be too valuable to lift, which would be good news.

As for the pitching.  Not hard to imagine a hammy, a lat strain or something worthy of a DL stint but not season ending that could impact the opening day rotation and bullpen.  I don't see the need to get concerned just yet. 

[dgwills]

 

Nolasco to AAA isn't an option.  He can refuse the assignment.

If he still wanted to play he'd have to elect free agency then. I'm sure the Twins would be happy with that. I don't think Nolasco would do that of course. Most likely he would just take the paid vacation for the rest of the year.

[Halsey Hall]

I'm with Seth on this, and TR mentioned it yesterday, Duffey will be in the rotation.  He also inferred Santana will be in center. He also mentioned he'd be getting another outfielder and pen help. 

[mattkummer]

I think the Twins lack of activity regarding the bullpen at the winter meetings shows that they are fine with their late inning bullpen being May/Jepsen/Perkins (7th/8th/9th). Quite honestly, I'm OK rolling with that to start the year. Yeah, I think finding a situation LH who's better than O'Rourke is a needed add. I'd listen to offers centered around Drew Storen (who's obviously not a lefty), for additional BP help. But if the Twins get him, he's gonna want to close.

That OF of Sano/Rosario/Arcia is terrifying from a defensive standpoint. I think Seth is right: if Buxton doesn't make the team out of spring training, they'll go with Danny Santana in CF, Rosario in RF and Sano in LF. Arcia can be a bench bat-- and quite frankly can/should be in rough platoon at DH with Park.

[nicksaviking]

 

Obviously, much of this will be dictated in spring training, for better or worse. If Nolasco looks like crap I don't think they're going to just throw him into the rotation anyway. However, I do believe he will have a leg up. The Twins are paying him a lot of money to start games and he hasn't really had an extended chance to do so when healthy over the last two years. If they're going to take a drastic step like sending Nolasco to the bullpen or (even more so) a straight-up release, I think they want to be sure he can't help them as a starter. There's not a lot of risk in giving him a month's worth of starts out of the gates, especially when you look at the service time benefits of giving Berrios at least a few weeks at Triple-A.

 

I didn't like Nolasco signing as I didn't think much of him as a pitcher, but I applauded the effort and risk Ryan made in getting him as it had been so uncharacteristic and I said at the time that no matter how it turned out, I'd never hold the signing against him as I wanted to see him continue taking risks.

 

However continuing to run him out there because they want to see if they can get their money's worth out of him is really only hedging that risk.  If the absolute, number one goal is to win in 2016, then Nolasco's contract should have zero impact on his role (if any) with the team.  It should be based on who is most likely to help the team, and clearly, recent track records would show that Duffey is more likely to help than Nolasco.

 

Now, winning in 2016 and winning in the future may not consist of the same elements.  If Ryan thinks that running Nolasco out there may increase his trade value and bring back pieces for the future (which I absolutely do not think is possible seeing as Mike Pelfrey and his wholly affordable contract still couldn't be moved last year), that's fine, but I'd really protest if the team then says that their number one goal is to win in 2016.

[TheLeviathan]

Ewww....Santana as the starting CF.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I see a lot of people grumbling about the idea of Milone and (especially) Nolasco in the rotation over Duffey and Berrios to start the year. I think it's important to keep in mind that nothing on Opening Day is permanent. 

 

Obviously, much of this will be dictated in spring training, for better or worse. If Nolasco looks like crap I don't think they're going to just throw him into the rotation anyway. However, I do believe he will have a leg up. The Twins are paying him a lot of money to start games and he hasn't really had an extended chance to do so when healthy over the last two years. If they're going to take a drastic step like sending Nolasco to the bullpen or (even more so) a straight-up release, I think they want to be sure he can't help them as a starter. There's not a lot of risk in giving him a month's worth of starts out of the gates, especially when you look at the service time benefits of giving Berrios at least a few weeks at Triple-A.

 

As far as Milone goes, again, that's going to play out in ST but I think the Twins like having a lefty in the rotation, he has an experience edge over Duffey/Berrios, and I'm not sure he does much for you as a reliever. 

 

It's important to keep in mind that last year was something of an outlier for the Twins in terms of rotation stability. Outside of Nolasco, they didn't really have anyone get seriously hurt or melt down. I wouldn't expect the same thing this year. Depth is important. To me, starting the year with Nolasco and Milone in the rotation is the best way to preserve that depth and keep quality arms at the ready. 

But this begs the question, why would you ever ever not start your best five starting pitchers? One answer, that applies only to Berrios, is service time. That make sense to me. I get it. If he is up in late May or early June or whatever, I will have no grudge.  But Duffey and May are clearly (and I mean CLEARLY) better starting pitchers than Milone and Nolasco. There is no doubt about it. None. Zippo. Nada. So why even have Nolasco and Milone start one day?  Sure, you can say it is only one game, or two games, or three (however long the "opening day ration" lasts).  But playoff spots are determined by one or two games ALL THE TIME. So again, other than service time, why would you not start your best 5 starting pitchers? May is very good out of the bullpen, but he is also very good as a starter, and it isn't like Molitor will be using him in only high leverage situations, and even then, the chances that he would be worth more out of the bullpen are negligible. Nolasco and Milone refuse to pitch out of the bullpen? Who cares. They are paid millions of dollars to do what the coach says, not to be spoiled brats. Say what you will about Mauer, but he plays when and where the coaches tell him, because he's a team player that does what the coaches think is best for the team. If Nolasco doesn't want to pitch out of the bullpen, then he shouldn't get paid. I don't know what happens under the CBA when a player refuses to play where the coach tells them, but it should be that they don't get paid/get fined.

 

I'm not against depth at SP. That is a different question. We shouldn't get rid of all three of Gibson, Nolasco, and Milone at the start of the season, or even two of them. But that is a different question than who should be starting, and it seems pretty clearly uniquivocal that the only reason not to start Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Duffey is for Terry Ryan or others to save face on a contract that turned out poorly, or to avoid ugliness because Nolasco is a spoiled baby, or because the Twins have a strange obsession with needing to have at least one lefty in the rotation. And those are all crap reasons. With the exception of service time considerations, start the best five pitchers, PERIOD. Everything else is just bull crap.

RANT OVER.

Edited December 14, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[tobi0040]

With regards to Sano to the OF....The Twins have had both of these guys in their systems for years now (Plouffe and Sano),  It has been clear for a few years they would intersect on the MLB roster.  In fact, it would have happened in 2014 if Sano didn't have TJ and as it seems, we are moving a 22 year old Sano to the OF and handing him a position he has never played.

 

I see two conclusions.

 

Either we are trading Plouffe or we have been asleep at the wheel here.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If he still wanted to play he'd have to elect free agency then. I'm sure the Twins would be happy with that. I don't think Nolasco would do that of course. Most likely he would just take the paid vacation for the rest of the year.

Nolasco refusing a minor league assignment and electing free agency would be the equivalent of releasing him, we would still owe him his full salary.

[beckmt]

One question, if they want to send Nolasco to AAA and he ops out, does that not end his contract with the Twins.  If it does and he is not in the top 5, GO FOR IT.

[dgwills]

 

Nolasco refusing a minor league assignment and electing free agency would be the equivalent of releasing him, we would still owe him his full salary.

Are you sure? I did look it up

If a player with Article XIX-A rights is outrighted and elects to be a free-agent immediately, his contract is terminated and he receives no termination pay. But if the player accepts the Outright Assignment and defers his right to be a free-agent until the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the player continues to get paid, receiving the balance of his salary through to the end of the season. And then if the outrighted player is not subsequently added back to an MLB 40-man roster prior to the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the player can elect free-agency anytime beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season through October 15th.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Are you sure? I did look it up

If a player with Article XIX-A rights is outrighted and elects to be a free-agent immediately, his contract is terminated and he receives no termination pay. But if the player accepts the Outright Assignment and defers his right to be a free-agent until the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the player continues to get paid, receiving the balance of his salary through to the end of the season. And then if the outrighted player is not subsequently added back to an MLB 40-man roster prior to the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the player can elect free-agency anytime beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season through October 15th.

 

True, I misspoke about electing free agency.  Of course, the player can both refuse the assignment AND not elect free agency, which is overwhelming the most common approach taken by MLB veterans in such situations:

 

 

If a player with Article XIX-A rights refuses an Outright Assignment but does not elect free-agency, the club must either retain the player on the club's MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), trade the player, or give the player his unconditional release.

 

Nolasco will either stay on the Twins roster, get traded to another team's roster, or get released.

Edited December 14, 2015 by spycake

[nicksaviking]

 

Ewww....Santana as the starting CF.

 

Only four out of five games though, he'll be the starting pitcher every fifth day.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think the title of this article should be "Roster is a jumble, Part II."

 

Especially if Ryan said the next thing on his list is to sign an outfielder?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I hate to say, but like Nick I can also see Nolasco starting the season in the rotation. If he pitches well in spring (and by "well" I mean really, really well, then why not). But they should absolutely not play games. If he can't hold his rotation spot at any point this season the Twins are best off sending him packing his bags.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hate to say, but like Nick I can also see Nolasco starting the season in the rotation. If he pitches well in spring (and by "well" I mean really, really well, then why not). But they should absolutely not play games. If he can't hold his rotation spot at any point this season the Twins are best off sending him packing his bags.

 

But what is "holding his spot", #4 level starter? Or better than you think Berrios will be? Because those are two different things.....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Only four out of five games though, he'll be the starting pitcher every fifth day.

 

Is this Ish or Ick?  I forget.

[dxpavelka]

That's a pretty underwhelming starting rotation to leave Duffy, May & Berrios in either the pen or Rochester.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

But what is "holding his spot", #4 level starter? Or better than you think Berrios will be? Because those are two different things.....

Yeah, our standards and the Twins front office standards for "holding your spot" are probably two different things.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Only four out of five games though, he'll be the starting pitcher every fifth day.

 

Ervin Santana in CF is only slightly less gag-inducing, that's the sad part.

[Halsey Hall]

IDK, Danny Santana taking the mound every fifth day could be worse.

[tobi0040]

 

I hate to say, but like Nick I can also see Nolasco starting the season in the rotation. If he pitches well in spring (and by "well" I mean really, really well, then why not). But they should absolutely not play games. If he can't hold his rotation spot at any point this season the Twins are best off sending him packing his bags.

 

He will get something like 11 innings in the spring. A respectable 4.50 ERA and a few random positive news stories and I think you are right.

[Platoon]

With regards to Sano to the OF....The Twins have had both of these guys in their systems for years now (Plouffe and Sano),  It has been clear for a few years they would intersect on the MLB roster.  In fact, it would have happened in 2014 if Sano didn't have TJ and as it seems, we are moving a 22 year old Sano to the OF and handing him a position he has never played.

 

I see two conclusions.

 

Either we are trading Plouffe or we have been asleep at the wheel here.

Quite possibly the most sensible, simplest, and clearest analysis of the entire Sano, Plouffe issue.

[TwinsTerritory]

I can't imagine the Twins running out a Sano-Rosario-Arcia outfield more than 5 times.  I would agree with Seth that it's more likely that Rosario stays in a corner spot and Santana plays a lot of CF until Buxton is ready (hopefully out of ST).  I can see why the Twins are considering adding an OF, but I'm really concerned that it becomes a negative if they feel feel forced to keep the guy when Buxton is ready.  Rajai Davis is a fine 4th OF on a good team, but who comes off the roster when Buxton is ready?

 

As far as starting pitching, it's nice to be arguing about depth (even if some of it is Ricky Nolasco).  It wasn't long ago that we were giving starts to guys that barely belonged in AAA.  I really think TR needs to look at the possibility of trading Milone.  I actually don't mind him in our rotation, but we need to make room for Duffey/Berrios and trading him looks like the best option (unless Gibson could bring something big).

[mikelink45]

As I continue to reflect on the failure of Terry Ryan to be the kind of general manager who can move a team in todays market I read this article http://baseball-players.pointafter.com/stories/8852/ranking-mlb-catchers-worst-best-2015?utm_medium=cm&utm_source=outbrain&utm_campaign=ao.cm.ob.dt.8852&utm_term=dt&utm_content=2787525#8-Kurt-Suzuki-Minnesota-Twins and saw AJ ranked 29 to Suzuki's 22 and think of how AJ was on his list to improve this position. 

 

And then I wonder what would have been the rank if Mauer had found a way to stay behind the plate.