Article: Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

[USAFChief]

It was also reasonable to think Suzuki's declining arm strength was only going o become more of an issue over time. On top of reasonable doubts about offense.

[sane09]

Suzuki was just THIS close to becoming a HOFer just like Molitor :-)

 

Just like Meyer will be awesome like HOFer Big Unit because they are both tall and because Unit took awhile to find his groove.  HOFers are always great examples to look for norms.

I wasn't looking for a "norm" to demonstrate that there ARE exceptions to your "rule". I was looking for an exception to demonstrate that there ARE exceptions

[jimmer]

 

I wasn't looking for a "norm" to demonstrate that there ARE exceptions to your "rule". I was looking for an exception to demonstrate that there ARE exceptions

It's not my rule it's just the way it is for most players.  Of course there are exceptions, there always are. Suzuki isn't that kind of player.  He basically had a half of a good season in 2014 at age 30.  No reason, at all, to believe that good first half of 2014 was sustainable going into 2015. It was especially obvious he wouldn't when he went back to being the player he had been in the 2nd half of 2014.

[kab21]

 

There were starters in that list that didn't cost the farm, doesn't that invalidate your claim?

Long term answers meeting your ridiculously high standards are hard to acquire at any position. The threshold here is complement to or potentially better than our incumbent starter, no?

Yes, there were starters on that list that didn't cost the farm.  They involved giving 82M to a 31 yr old catcher.  Or trading for a 31 yr old 40M (3yrs) catcher that was showing decline.  If the Twins had made either of those moves this board would have blasted them.

 

I actually don't have ridiculously high standards at catcher.  I think JR Murphy is an acceptable long term catcher.  Sure I would like to do even better but he is cheap and he only cost Aaron Hicks.  Hicks is a nice player with upside but there were already many that didn't think he had a long term place in the OF with Rosario, Buxton and Kepler coming up (not to mention Sano possibly). 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, there were starters on that list that didn't cost the farm.  They involved giving 82M to a 31 yr old catcher.  Or trading for a 31 yr old 40M (3yrs) catcher that was showing decline.  If the Twins had made either of those moves this board would have blasted them.

What?  Several on this board called for those exact moves.

 

We invested an additional $97 million on the rotation last winter (Hughes extension plus Santana), while only actually adding one pitcher for 2015-2016.  It would have been easy to justify $40 mil or even $82 mil to potentially address a position of even greater weakness instead, for a longer period of time, especially if it also meant we wouldn't guarantee $12 mil to Suzuki (thus the net cost of Montero or Martin would have only been 3/28 mil or 5/70 mil respectively).

 

Not to mention targeting a capable backup (not unlike Murphy in that regard) in Cervelli, Castillo, etc. as Suzuki insurance, if not partner or replacement.

 

Catcher is a tough position to fill because you generally can't shift players to it, but when you have a void, it's difficult to capably fill any position externally.  Still, you have to try.  Ultimately, I would have been fine with Suzuki at 2/15 or 2/18 or whatever, or AJ, or Suzuki at 2/12 plus a veteran backup (like Suzuki circa 2014) if I believed we had put forth our best effort to address the position.  The timing of the Suzuki extension and our inactivity that followed at the position, as other catchers changed hands and we spent further on the rotation, suggests that we did not put forth our best effort to address catcher in 2014-2015.

 

I tend to think it was over-rating the familiarly of Suzuki, although misreading the market, mis-prioritizing a Hughes extension, etc. were other potential factors.

Edited December 17, 2015 by spycake

[USAFChief]

Yes, there were starters on that list that didn't cost the farm.  They involved giving 82M to a 31 yr old catcher.  Or trading for a 31 yr old 40M (3yrs) catcher that was showing decline.  If the Twins had made either of those moves this board would have blasted them.

 

I actually don't have ridiculously high standards at catcher.  I think JR Murphy is an acceptable long term catcher.  Sure I would like to do even better but he is cheap and he only cost Aaron Hicks.  Hicks is a nice player with upside but there were already many that didn't think he had a long term place in the OF with Rosario, Buxton and Kepler coming up (not to mention Sano possibly).

 

I can't speak for "this board" but you wouldn't have heard me blasting them for adding Russell Martin for nothing but money, or accepting a salary dump of Montero.

 

In fact, I'd have been congratulating them.

[jimmer]

Not sure how anyone can say Murphy is an acceptable long term catcher. He hasn't even had a full season yet. We don't know what he can do. We've seen what he can do in a nice hitters park with an unsustainable BABIP in a very short sample size , though.

[kab21]

The Russell Martin thread from last year was short but there was negative sentiment on the deal.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/15973-blue-jays-sign-russell-martin/

 

Quotes are from Seth Stohs, biggentleben, Kirbywavedatme, Mike Sixel and twinsfanstreif.  These are not a sampling of don't sign anyone until 2019 when the team is finally ready to compete. 

 

 

 

Russell Martin will play in his home country. The catcher signed a 5 year, $82 million contract to play for the Toronto Blue Jays.

    What do you think?

    Silly-ness!

 

 

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Years are absolutely ridiculous for the tread on his legs.

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I bet it will be a nice christmas (or boxing day) at the Martin home this year.

 

 

 I feel bad for the Pirates a little bit, because they are going to have a tough time of staying in the NL central conversation if they can't replace the guys they lose. I'm not sure that A.J. Burnett and Cervelli are going to be enough to make up for Martin, Liriano, and Volquez all departing.

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   He's the DH in 2 years, I'd guess.

 

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Yea, seems pretty stupid, plus they loose a pick

 

 

If you want to get an idea of board sentiment to signing 30+ yr old catchers to long contracts then maybe you should go back to the Wieters threads from before he accepted the QO. 

[kab21]

 

Not sure how anyone can say Murphy is an acceptable long term catcher. He hasn't even had a full season yet. We don't know what he can do. We've seen what he can do in a nice hitters park with an unsustainable BABIP in a very short sample size , though.

The definition of irony.  Cervelli is named as a missed opportunity by the Twins.  The hindsight in this thread is awesome.

[dougd]

I had thought, somewhat contemporaneously, that the Twins did miss an opportunity to pick up Wellington Castillo from the Mariners. Their GM at the time had a penchant for failed outfielders, and Arcia would have been a perfect fit.  

[jimmer]

 

The definition of irony.  Cervelli is named as a missed opportunity by the Twins.  The hindsight in this thread is awesome.

People were talking about Cervelli for quite some time.  I, myself, have never written his name in here (or perhaps anywhere) until this post.  So your irony comment is misplaced.

[South Dakota Tom]

I don't expect us to get the best buy-low candidate of the offseason (Cervelli).    I think we got a fair return for what we gave up.    I am in the minority on this position (given the OP) but I think there are a lot of reasons to love this deal.    First, we have outfield depth, and it would have been difficult to find a place for Hicks on a long-term basis - not enough power for a corner, and two outfield spots covered with a logjam behind that is intriguing.

 

 

But to me more important is the sense of being a pro ballplayer in your prime.  JR Murphy has got to be absolutely jacked right now.  He is going to play at least half the time, knowing that the Twins want to limit Suzuki's AB's, and he is solid defensively.  He isn't crowded by a high-dollar veteran ahead of him and a top prospect behind him.  Hicks is headed to crazy town with a ton of pressure and has not handled failure well in his history.  I think this board is going to love our new catcher (for the next 7-8 years!), and realize shortly into the season that there was no place for Hicks on this team.   

 

 

And then again, i could be completely wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The definition of irony.  Cervelli is named as a missed opportunity by the Twins.  The hindsight in this thread is awesome.

For the record, the post of yours that prompted the mention of Cervelli (and others) simply asked, "What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system?" That bar is, at minimum, having a better complement / Plan B entering 2015 than Pinto, Herrmann, and Fryer.  It doesn't take hindsight (or "selling the farm") to clear that threshold of expected contribution.

 

Also for the record, I don't mind the Hicks-Murphy deal now, but that still doesn't excuse the poor planning of a year ago.

[DocBauer]

I'll be sheepishly honest....I skipped a few pages of this thread. Would you believe by accident? Oh well...

 

At the end of the day, we're all looking for something to talk about with baited breath...err...urgent fingers....until the next season starts.

 

But isn't this the ultimate version of perspective as well as "wait and see"? We have a poor-mediocre performing OF of considerable talent/potential who is a completely unknown enigma at this point, traded for a highly drafted and highly rated prospect, (somewhat skewed just being from the Yankees probably), who has produced in a SSS that grants him potential but also marks him as enigmatic at this point.