Article: Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

[DaveW]

 

 This is 2016 and the Twins are trying to win.

Are you sure about that? The overall inaction of the winter meetings thus far and the huge holes that remain (front end rotation guy, bullpen, OF) seem to suggest the opposite, in addition I have read from multiple posters that the Twins window isn't until 2017 or later anyways.

[DaveW]

 

 

Not fill it, just find one or two guys. That's not terribly difficult.

 

If the Twins were shopping for 3-5 guys, yeah... That's damned near impossible. But given the plethora of relievers available at any moment and your need of just one or two of them (both don't even have to be great), that's not a particularly tall order to fill.

 

The Twins have two guys locked into the back of the pen - Jepsen and Perkins. May might end up there. I don't like it but it might happen. That's three above average relievers. All you need at that point is one more decent righty and a decent lefty, though a shutdown lefty who can be a one-inning guy would be preferred, obviously.

Perkins has a lot of injury issues/concerns coming into this season.

 

As far as "we just need one or two good/great ones more" that is kind of hard to do when 15 or so of the top 20 have already been picked up.

[markos]

Criticizing past trades based on current information is often unfair, but I do think that the following questions are (potentially) valid criticism of the front office: 

 

1) There is certainly a lot more liquidity in the catcher market right now than there was a month ago. Could this have been predicted in advance with a careful analysis of the FA market, arbitration decisions, 40-man roster situations on all the other teams, etc? I certainly didn't anticipate this, but then again, it isn't my job to figure that stuff out.

 

2) Is there every a good case for acquiring average or worse players (either via free agency or trades) prior to the arbitration/40-man roster deadline in late November? I honestly don't know the answer to this, but I kind of suspect that in most cases, there are usually more/better options available afterwards. So is it possible that moving early for non-elite players is counterproductive?

 

Both of these questions also apply to the other big deal of the offseason - the signing of Park. The Twins signed a bat-only slugger to a long-term (but reasonable) deal right before several bat-only sluggers were either non-tendered (Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez) or freely available (Mark Trumbo). Again, was this something that a careful analysis of the landscape could have predicted beforehand? 

[DaveW]

 

If you're trying to patch a problem on the MLB roster, there comes a time where "rehabilitation project" is not a phrase you're interested in pursuing.

 

 

 This is 2016 and the Twins are trying to win.

Also there is no reason whatsoever why Bethancourt couldn't be good and contribute in 2016 for the Twins anyways, he put up an .840 OPS in AAA last year, did he struggle in the majors last year? Sure, but plenty of great players struggle early on. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities that he plays well in 2016 and continues to improve from there on.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are you sure about that? The overall inaction of the winter meetings thus far and the huge holes that remain (front end rotation guy, bullpen, OF) seem to suggest the opposite, in addition I have read from multiple posters that the Twins window isn't until 2017 or later anyways.

*Looks at the calendar*

 

Yep, still not even mid-December. Ryan has made two significant moves and people are complaining he's not "trying to win" because he didn't make more moves at the winter meetings.

 

I'm as disappointed as anyone about not picking up guys at the meetings but, again, it's not even mid-December yet. There is over a month of solid activity left in this offseason. What is happening right now reminds me of people complaining about ST rosters on March 10th.

 

"Ryan moves too early!"

 

*December 11th rolls around*

 

"The offseason is OVER!"

[DaveW]

 

 

 

 

2) Is there every a good case for acquiring average or worse players (either via free agency or trades) prior to the arbitration/40-man roster deadline in late November? I honestly don't know the answer to this, but I kind of suspect that in most cases, there are usually more/better options available afterwards. So is it possible that moving early for non-elite players is counterproductive?

Excellent point and I have to agree with your question. The Twins signed Ricky Nolasco early on in the off-season a couple years ago as well, they overpaid him quite a bit, which is not a good idea for an "average" player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also there is no reason whatsoever why Bethancourt couldn't be good and contribute in 2016 for the Twins anyways, he put up an .840 OPS in AAA last year, did he struggle in the majors last year? Sure, but plenty of great players struggle early on. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities that he plays well in 2016 and continues to improve from there on.

Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendricks disagree that AAA success has a good chance of immediately translating to MLB success.

 

Again, Bethancourt is an interesting reclamation project... But he's not the type of guy you rely on for anything, particularly when your starting catcher is named Kurt Suzuki. That's inviting disaster.

[DaveW]

 

 

*Looks at the calendar*

 

Yep, still not even mid-December. Ryan has made two significant moves and people are complaining he's not "trying to win" because he didn't make more moves at the winter meetings.

 

I'm as disappointed as anyone about not picking up guys at the meetings but, again, it's not even mid-December yet. There is over a month of solid activity left in this offseason. What is happening right now reminds me of people complaining about ST rosters on March 10th.

 

"Ryan moves too early!"

 

*December 11th rolls around*

 

"The offseason is OVER!"

 The problem is most of the top RP are now off the board. You yourself said they need two more good ones.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 The problem is most of the top RP are now off the board. You yourself said they need two more good ones.

I know, that's why I'm disappointed... But there are still relievers available and FA is not the only method to acquire a player. It's my personal preferred method but it's not the only way to get it done.

[DaveW]

 

 

Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendricks disagree that AAA success has a good chance of immediately translating to MLB success.

 

 

Oh you mean two guys that were mediocre prospects who never cracked a top 100 list? Not sure why this is relevant to Bethancourt, who btw isn't a reclamation project. He was top 100 heading into 2015, had a great year at AAA and struggled at the major leagues, you act like he is Dallas McPherson or something.

[South Dakota Tom]

Can you imagine how much everyone on this board would be freaking out if we hadn't done anything about catcher as of this date and the end of the winter meetings? 

[DaveW]

 

I know, that's why I'm disappointed... But there are still relievers available and FA is not the only method to acquire a player. It's my personal preferred method but it's not the only way to get it done.

Not many "shut down/great" guys left though, and while we could trade for one, I much rather would have given one a 3/18 year contract instead of getting into a bidding war for a RP, personally. There were plenty of great options available for reasonable deals, how we didn't jump in is beyond me.

 

More disappointing is that this basically cements May to the bullpen, which IMO is a terrible move.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It's a good trade.  Hicks, with some MLB experience, still has room to improve at age 26.  Murphy, so far, is projected to be a 2 way player:  a catcher that can hit.  When was the last time the Twins had one of those?  Butch Wynegar?

 

Maybe I'm missing some joke here and you're going to make fun of me for being square but Joe Mauer? AJ Pierzynski? the vastly underrated Brian Harper?

 

Even Tim Laudner threw up some above average years at the dish.  Strangely if you think about the Twins post-Mauer, if you were to pick the Twins best positions throughout the years, it probably goes CF (Puckett, Hunter, Span, Lyman Bostock, Jim Eisenrich) and then C (the aforementioned plus Earl Battey).  And it's pretty close there too.  You could make an argument for 1B too with Killebrew, Hrbek, Morneau, Dougie.

 

This actually seems like an interesting side topic. Perhaps I'll start it next time I'm bored at work. So next week.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

More disappointing is that this basically cements May to the bullpen, which IMO is a terrible move.

That's my biggest problem with the way things *appear* to be shaking out this offseason. I don't want to see Trevor May permanently shifted to the bullpen. I think he has the talent to be a starter.

 

But with Meyer and Burdi in the org, I'm not against the Twins banking on one of them stepping forward at some point in 2016. IMO, they can pick up a RHRP who is only "acceptable" and hope/pray one of those guys dominates out of the gate and gets a promotion.

 

My biggest worry is LHRP.

[DaveW]

 

Maybe I'm missing some joke here and you're going to make fun of me for missing it but Joe Mauer? AJ Pierzynski? the vastly underrated Brian Harper?

Suzuki also "hit" just fine in 2014.

[DocBauer]

Aaron Hicks had one good month at the plate and hasn't been able to hit otherwise.  He was blocking the best prospect in the game and his bat certainly won't play in a corner - where he'd block Sano, Rosario and Kepler.  The Twins traded him away for what looks to be a nice solid catcher. Cripes, even Klaw liked the trade.  Ryan did a good job.

 

Pretty much this. It's only a bad trade if Murphy stinks and Hicks sets the world on fire. (Or if TR just sits on his hands from here on out)

 

I don't really see anything wrong at this time. At the very least, I'd like to see how this plays out for a season (at least half of one) before making some determination.

[dougd]

BP calls it a challenge trade of two former top prospects (Kelly was as high as 30 on some lists before the injuries).

 

Only 24, Bethancourt was ranked as a top-100 prospect as recently as preseason 2014. He's since failed to impress during two big-league stints due to an overaggressive approach and overrated glove.
For his big-league career, Bethancourt has offered at nearly 60 percent of the pitches he's seen, and nearly half the pitches he's seen out of his zone. Basically, he's done his best J.P. Arencibia impersonation . . . sans the occasional feats of raw power. That's just not going to work, even for a catcher. Bethancourt isn't polished on the defensive side, either. His arm strength is elite, but he's not always consistent with his footwork. Additionally, he needs to continue honing his receiving skills.
Because Bethancourt is without options, he'll have to make quick progress at the big-league level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pretty much this. It's only a bad trade if Murphy stinks and Hicks sets the world on fire. (Or if TR just sits on his hands from here on out) I don't really see anything wrong at this time. At the very least, I'd like to see how this plays out for a season (at least half of one) before making some determination.

My sentiments as well. On paper, it was a fair trade. Now it's going to take on-field results to determine the winner and loser of the deal (or both could be winners/losers).

 

Not a huge fan of the deal but it's now up to the scouts and players.

[DocBauer]

That's my biggest problem with the way things *appear* to be shaking out this offseason. I don't want to see Trevor May permanently shifted to the bullpen. I think he has the talent to be a starter.

 

But with Meyer and Burdi in the org, I'm not against the Twins banking on one of them stepping forward at some point in 2016. IMO, they can pick up a RHRP who is only "acceptable" and hope/pray one of those guys dominates out of the gate and gets a promotion.

 

My biggest worry is LHRP.

 

Bingo!

 

Barring injury, or an unexpected trade, I think there is a good chance May is in the bullpen for all, or most of, 2016. I don't like it, but he could be good at it, and he could shift back to the rotation in '17. The problem isn't even Milone, it's Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and Berrios. Remove Milone, promote Berrios, and you have one too many starters. So either Duffey or May works out of the pen. I just don't see Hughes or Santana (or Gibson) going anywhere at least untill next year.

 

Even with May, or Duffey, in the bullpen, I could still see a vet RHRP on a 1 year deal to bolster things. But we don't have one guy from the left side we can really trust or bank on right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Only 24, Bethancourt was ranked as a top-100 prospect as recently as preseason 2014. He's since failed to impress during two big-league stints due to an overaggressive approach and overrated glove.

For his big-league career, Bethancourt has offered at nearly 60 percent of the pitches he's seen, and nearly half the pitches he's seen out of his zone. Basically, he's done his best J.P. Arencibia impersonation . . . sans the occasional feats of raw power. That's just not going to work, even for a catcher. Bethancourt isn't polished on the defensive side, either. His arm strength is elite, but he's not always consistent with his footwork. Additionally, he needs to continue honing his receiving skills.
Because Bethancourt is without options, he'll have to make quick progress at the big-league level.

Last season, Bethancourt swung at 1.7% more pitches than Eddie Rosario. Ouch.

[AKTwins]

I would still do this trade. The backup catcher signed have zero upside or are at the down turn of their career. Instead we get a somewhat known commodity with upside to be above average. I guess we could fault Ryan for not picking up a low minors prospect in the deal. Also moving Hicks clears up a potential log jam in the OF with buxton, Kepler, AB walker, arcia, and potentially Sano.

[DaveW]

 

Last season, Bethancourt swung at 1.7% more pitches than Eddie Rosario. Ouch.

Fixable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fixable.

Sure, but it means the guy has a long way to go to become a productive MLB player. I have huge concerns about Rosario but at least he put up solid power numbers. If he makes contact, it's good contact. Eddie is also a year younger and is a very good, maybe great, defender.

 

Again, I think Bethancourt is a good project player for a rebuilding team. That doesn't fit with what the Twins are trying to do this season and Bethancourt has to stay on the 25 man roster, as he's out of options.

[sane09]

 

Bingo! Barring injury.... it's Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and Berrios. Remove Milone, promote Berrios, and you have one too many starters..

Barring injury to a starting rotation is almost impossible.

If you will pay me $20 for each start missed due to injury, grieving, child-birth or undisclosed personal issue (Ervin Santana), I will pay you $200 if the five original Twins SP's can actually make all the starts.

Please don't take that bet, I can't do the jail time....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Bethancourt hit AA as a 20 year old. Murphy hit AA as a 21 year old. You're talking up Bethancourt's .840 AAA OPS while downplaying Murphy's .734 MLB OPS. In essence, you're blaming Murphy for not getting demoted.

 

As a 21 year old, Bethancourt repeated AA. Murphy played part of the season in AA. For all intents and purposes, they put up identical numbers (Bethancourt had a slight advantage in OPS, well within any kind of margin of error).

 

You're acting like Bethancourt is some raw 20 year old and Murphy is 30 years old. Murphy is 25, Bethancourt 24.

 

people put way too much stock into career numbers on guys who have barely had careers.  Your statement here is why I don't get the dislike that so many people have had about this trade (not you specifically Brock).  Murphy was an above average catcher in the minors while being young for his age every step of the way. He may not have Hicks upside, but he's a lot closer to reaching his upside and that upside is an above average major league catcher.  I am on the fence about this trade, but I don't get the consternation here. He's likely going to be catching for the Twins in some capacity for 5 years providing at worse a league average offense with above average defense on a team that desparately needed an upgrade here.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

So would anyone try to go after Hedges or Norris at this point? SD has lots of catching talent, but none of their catchers are really MLB proven yet.

[mikelink45]

What I keep looking for is one of the Twins Daily bloggers to examine TR's tendencies and history.  In my mind I remember him making quick moves and then seldom making moves around the owners meetings, and finally picking up a left over near time for camp.  Is my memory faulty?  Because he is doing what he always does.  

 

Even trading a centerfielder has become a Twins trade mark - Torii when he was a centerfielder, Span, Revere, Hicks, Gomez!  Has any other team traded so many center fielders during this time period?

 

Of course, if an ex-Twin becomes available that will be his next move.  That is why he went for A J  first in his catcher search. 

 

I believe your analyzers will see more trends than I am listing.  

[Rosterman]

Hicks was soon to be ano utfielder without a job. He was the underdog coming into sprint training. Yes, he could've opened the year in centerfield. Yes, he could be a corner outfielder. Are the Twins better taking a flyer on Buxton and Arcia, to name two, in those positions? I think yes.

 

Hicks had limited production. He showed enough spark that his trade value had increased. But he is soon to be arbitration eligible. He either plays regularly in 2016 and has a breakout year, or is a continued flop and the you have to ask yourself about going to arbitration with a fourth outfielder who was a number one prospect.

 

Hopefully he pulls it all together. But in the organizational depth chart, he was tradable. Considering the playrs on the current Twins roster than other teams want and the Twins are willing to trade, Ryan did goo. 

 

And hopefully centerfield won't be a weakness in 2016 with Buxton, Benson, Santana and Rosario all in the mix. Buxton will takeover, or be given every opportunity to takeover, sometime next year. He should be a keeper!

 

 

[sane09]

 

 seldom making moves around the owners meetings 

I think that is because the other GM's stay at the Hilton, while the Twins stay at Motel6.

[tobi0040]

 

What I keep looking for is one of the Twins Daily bloggers to examine TR's tendencies and history.  In my mind I remember him making quick moves and then seldom making moves around the owners meetings, and finally picking up a left over near time for camp.  Is my memory faulty?  Because he is doing what he always does.  

 

Even trading a centerfielder has become a Twins trade mark - Torii when he was a centerfielder, Span, Revere, Hicks, Gomez!  Has any other team traded so many center fielders during this time period?

 

Of course, if an ex-Twin becomes available that will be his next move.  That is why he went for A J  first in his catcher search. 

 

I believe your analyzers will see more trends than I am listing.  

 

Torii was not traded.  If memory serves he was a FA and we offered 3-45.  He signed for 5-90.

 

The flip side is I guess we have probably invested more 1st round picks towards CF than about anyone else too.   Hunter, Hicks, Span, Revere, and Buxton. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by tobi0040