Article: Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

[Tom Froemming]

When the news broke of the Twins' trade of Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, the deal seamed reasonable enough. The club was dealing from an area of strength to address one of its greatest weaknesses. After seeing the free agent and trade markets evolve, things are starting to look worse.There was no reason the team had to deal away a player who would have been of value to the 2016 roster in order to solve the catching problem. True, Matt Wieters, the expected top prize of this offseason's catching group, was surprisingly off the market after accepting the Orioles' qualifying offer. Another potential target, A.J. Pierzynski, quickly resigned with the Braves.

 

Did Terry Ryan overreact to that early activity? It's certainly starting to look like it. Here is a list of the other catchers who have signed so far:

 

Tyler Flowers: 2 years, $5.8 million

Brayan Pena: 2 years, $5 million

Chris Iannetta: 1 year, $4.25 million

Dioner Navarro: 1 year, $4 million

Alex Avila: 1 year, $2.5 million

Geovany Soto: 1 year, $2 million

Josh Thole: 1 year, $0.8 million

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 1 year, $0.508 million

 

Those are very reasonable prices for guys who you could consider serviceable backups at the very least. Another move that went down Thursday evening has me further convinced there is even more reason to question the Hicks-Murphy trade.

 

The San Diego Padres acquired former top prospect Christian Bethancourt from the Braves, giving up basically nothing of value to their major league club for the '16 season. This move is especially notable because with Derek Norris and Austin Hedges already in the fold, San Diego is almost certainly shopping a catcher.

 

Going to Atlanta in that deal is the perpetually busted Casey Kelly, a 26-year-old former prospect who had a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings with the Padres and a 5.16 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. The prize of the return for the Braves is 17-year-old catcher Ricardo Rodriguez. So, basically a long shot to ever be a significant contributor and a complete lottery ticket. Sounds like a lot better of a deal than giving up your starting center fielder.

 

In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%). The Braves soured on him over questions regarding his game calling and an increase in passed balls. The fact that San Diego jumped on him despite not having a need at the position shows they feel he was being undervalued by the Braves, and it seems to me like experience and instruction could go a long way toward fixing those issues.

 

While it's great that the Twins filled a huge hole in the organization by adding Murphy, who is a better long-term solution than any of the free agents listed above and has more of an MLB track record than Bethancourt, it's frustrating to think that hole could have been filled without having to part ways with Hicks.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

I really like Aaron Hicks. Spent at least 20 minutes chatting with him in the locker room on the final weekend. Great kid. But, I still like the trade. Hicks had 6 great weeks in 3 seasons in the big leagues. I hope he does take off in New York. 

 

But I still like the trade. Sure, the Twins could have gone out and spent on good backup catchers where you know what you're going to get. But instead, he went aggressive and got a 24-year-old who is a backup because Brian McCann is their catcher. He was available because Gary Sanchez is also about ready. If Murphy can be an average major league catcher, and I think that's very reasonable, he can start and the team can have him for 5 years before free agency. Worst case, he's a solid major league backup. Best case, he's a slightly better than average starting catcher, which has a ton of value. 

 

There are several good backup catchers on that list above, but none are terrific by any means. 

[sane09]

But I still like the trade. Sure, the Twins could have gone out and spent on good backup catchers where you know what you're going to get. But instead, he went aggressive and got a 24-year-old who is a backup because Brian McCann is their catcher. He was available because Gary Sanchez is also about ready. If Murphy can be an average major league catcher, and I think that's very reasonable, he can start and the team can have him for 5 years before free agency. Worst case, he's a solid major league backup. Best case, he's a slightly better than average starting catcher, which has a ton of value. 

 

There are several good backup catchers on that list above, but none are terrific by any means.

Murphy, Hicks and Centeno, who were added to replace Hermann, Fryer and Pinto, are ALL excellent defensive upgrades at a defense-first position. The Twins did an fine job repairing their weakest position at the MLB level.

[USAFChief]

I have a bad feeling about this trade. Real bad.

 

I hope I'm underestimating Murphy, and overestimating Hicks.

[KGB]

I have to admit, I not the biggest fan of Ryan but this is getting a little old.  He trades HIcks prior to the winter meeting - he acted too soon.  He doesn't pick up a RP in the meeting - what is he waiting for?

 

No wonder he tried to retire early.

[sane09]

There are several good backup catchers on that list above, but none are terrific by any means.

The Twins have done an excellent job upgrading their defense at catcher, which WAS their worst position at the MLB level. Replacing Hermann, Fryer and Pinto with Murphy, Hicks and Centeno is a HUGE upgrade!

 

John Ryan Murphy

“I think he’s improved dramatically as a catcher from the time he was drafted,” Girardi said. “He’s very smart. He works very hard. He’s got an idea what he wants to do. I think it’s a good trade for both teams and I think he’ll be a good big-league catcher.”

 

John Hicks

Not only has Hicks hit .312 in 159 minor league games at the Class A level, but he also threw out 54 percent of basestealers last year for high Class A High Desert. That was best in the California League and led all qualified full-season catchers

 

Juan Centeno

2014 PCL Best Defensive Catcher, Las Vegas (Mets) Baseball America

[sane09]

In fact, catcher is now such a position of depth for the Twins, that Kurt Suzuki has become a trade chip.

The Twins now have:

Suzuki, Murphy and Hicks on the 40-man roster.

Centeno, Turner and Paulino at AAA.

Garver and Navaretto at AA

Trade Suzuki (and Plouffe?) for whatever you think we need.

[Homer Hanky]

 

In fact, catcher is now such a position of depth for the Twins, that Kurt Suzuki has become a trade chip.

The Twins now have:

Suzuki, Murphy and Hicks on the 40-man roster.

Centeno, Turner and Paulino at AAA.

Garver and Navaretto at AA

Trade Suzuki (and Plouffe?) for whatever you think we need.

I certainly would trade Susuki at the deadline... unless we are in first place! 

 

[Tom Froemming]

I'm excited to see Murphy, who no doubt filled a huge hole, but I just wonder if this trade, and the entire offseason to date, has been a good use of assets.

 

And the only reason Hicks could be considered an extra piece is because they signed Park, which they didn't have to do. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited to see Park too, and they got an amazing deal on him (did his agent think Black Friday deals extended to baseball?).

 

I feel the better course of action would have been to use the $23 million used to acquire Park on a reliever and a veteran backup catcher, keep Miguel Sano at DH and maintain what was expected to be a fantastic defensive outfield. I'm optimistic Sano won't be a complete train wreck in the outfield, but he ain't gonna be Aaron Hicks out there, either. 

 

There are still assets available in free agency, and there may be more trades coming, but all I'm sayin' is I don't really get what they've done so far. Maybe it's not fair to assess an incomplete picture, but hey, it's December and I wanna talk about baseball.

[USAFChief]

 

In fact, catcher is now such a position of depth for the Twins, that Kurt Suzuki has become a trade chip.

The Twins now have:

Suzuki, Murphy and Hicks on the 40-man roster.

Centeno, Turner and Paulino at AAA.

Garver and Navaretto at AA

Trade Suzuki (and Plouffe?) for whatever you think we need.

Our definitions of "depth" must be different.

[gunnarthor]

Aaron Hicks had one good month at the plate and hasn't been able to hit otherwise.  He was blocking the best prospect in the game and his bat certainly won't play in a corner - where he'd block Sano, Rosario and Kepler.  The Twins traded him away for what looks to be a nice solid catcher. Cripes, even Klaw liked the trade.  Ryan did a good job.

[HitInAPinch]

It's a good trade.  Hicks, with some MLB experience, still has room to improve at age 26.  Murphy, so far, is projected to be a 2 way player:  a catcher that can hit.  When was the last time the Twins had one of those?  Butch Wynegar?

[dgwills]

The reason it was a good trade is that these guys are the best available. Most have big defensive problems at a defense first position. Catcher is a very thin position and this group proves that.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't have an issue with the trade. I would have liked to aim higher, but I can understand why they didn't.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Aaron Hicks had one good month at the plate and hasn't been able to hit otherwise.  He was blocking the best prospect in the game and his bat certainly won't play in a corner - where he'd block Sano, Rosario and Kepler.  The Twins traded him away for what looks to be a nice solid catcher. Cripes, even Klaw liked the trade.  Ryan did a good job.

I expect both to be fantastic, potentially franchise-changing players, but Buxton and Kepler have 0 good months ... at Triple-A. Some more time in the minors wouldn't hurt either of them.

 

Keeping Hicks wouldn't have blocked Buxton, as he and Arcia could have been a really good platoon in a corner once Buxton takes over in center. Having to squeeze Sano into the outfield is a problem the organization created. Didn't have to be that way.

[Dantes929]

I think Hicks has more upside than Murphy but Hicks is not better than :Rosario and does not have the upside of Buxton, Kepler, Park or Sano.   Hicks has done very little at the minor or major league level that says he can hit left handed which makes him a platoon player.   IMO a very good platoon player that could   have paired with Arcia  with excellent results but that probably wasn't going to happen so I am not going to cry over it.

[nicksaviking]

I thought the Twins got the short end of the stick in the trade but didn't get too upset as I still think Hicks is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

 

But the move was done way too early in hindsight. San Diego clearly needs a trade partner now and I think I'd rather have Norris or Hedges over Murphy.

[tobi0040]

I think this trade tells me two things. 

 

1 - We view Ryan as a starting catcher and a guy that can help the team this year and eventually be our starting catcher for several years.

 

2 - We have doubts about Aaron Hicks. 

 

Time will tell if we were right. 

 

Here is what I like.

 

1 - We dealt from a position of strength for a position of weakness. 

 

2 -  We targeted a player that was likely better than any catcher we have in our system.

 

3 - We added a year of control

 

4 - Hicks in the corner OF spot, especially when he hits arb next year is EXTREMELY replaceable

[nytwinsfan]

 

I certainly would trade Susuki at the deadline... unless we are in first place! 

Unless Suzuki is hitting much much better than last year, we would have to pay another team to take him, given his $6 M contract.

[DaveW]

 

When the news broke of the Twins' trade of Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, the deal seamed reasonable enough. The club was dealing from an area of strength to address one of its greatest weaknesses. After seeing the free agent and trade markets evolve, things are starting to look worse.There was no reason the team had to deal away a player who would have been of value to the 2016 roster in order to solve the catching problem. True, Matt Wieters, the expected top prize of this offseason's catching group, was surprisingly off the market after accepting the Orioles' qualifying offer. Another potential target, A.J. Pierzynski, quickly resigned with the Braves.

Did Terry Ryan overreact to that early activity? It's certainly starting to look like it. Here is a list of the other catchers who have signed so far:

Tyler Flowers: 2 years, $5.8 million
Brayan Pena: 2 years, $5 million
Chris Iannetta: 1 year, $4.25 million
Dioner Navarro: 1 year, $4 million
Alex Avila: 1 year, $2.5 million
Geovany Soto: 1 year, $2 million
Josh Thole: 1 year, $0.8 million
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 1 year, $0.508 million

Those are very reasonable prices for guys who you could consider serviceable backups at the very least. Another move that went down Thursday evening has me further convinced there is even more reason to question the Hicks-Murphy trade.

The San Diego Padres acquired former top prospect Christian Bethancourt from the Braves, giving up basically nothing of value to their major league club for the '16 season. This move is especially notable because with Derek Norris and Austin Hedges already in the fold, San Diego is almost certainly shopping a catcher.

Going to Atlanta in that deal is the perpetually busted Casey Kelly, a 26-year-old former prospect who had a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings with the Padres and a 5.16 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. The prize of the return for the Braves is 17-year-old catcher Ricardo Rodriguez. So, basically a long shot to ever be a significant contributor and a complete lottery ticket. Sounds like a lot better of a deal than giving up your starting center fielder.

In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%). The Braves soured on him over questions regarding his game calling and an increase in passed balls. The fact that San Diego jumped on him despite not having a need at the position shows they feel he was being undervalued by the Braves, and it seems to me like experience and instruction could go a long way toward fixing those issues.

While it's great that the Twins filled a huge hole in the organization by adding Murphy, who is a better long-term solution than any of the free agents listed above and has more of an MLB track record than Bethancourt, it's frustrating to think that hole could have been filled without having to part ways with Hicks.

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Agreed, Bethancourt would have been a great target. Murphy is just more of the same (mediocre player who projects to be a backup or a below average starter if everything goes right)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But the move was done way too early in hindsight. San Diego clearly needs a trade partner now and I think I'd rather have Norris or Hedges over Murphy.

Inversely, you could say SD moved too late, possibly in the same fashion Ryan may have moved too late with Plouffe.

 

Play cute games, talk about how much you love a player, and say you're not going to trade him... Well, sometimes, you get burned as other teams take your word for it and move on to other targets.

[DaveW]

 

Inversely, you could say SD moved too late, possibly in the same fashion Ryan may have moved too late with Plouffe.

 

Play cute games, talk about how much you love a player, and say you're not going to trade him... Well, sometimes, you get burned as other teams take your word for it and move on to other targets.

Yup, its a dangerous game, especially when you are talking about average-ish players like Plouffe or Norris, teams aren't going to wait around for weeks on end waiting to see if they can get the 15th best  catcher or 15th best 3rd basemen etc

 

I do think however Hicks was moved way to soon, as the OP notes, there were plenty of catchers avail via FA and the Twins are planning on trotting out suzuki as the starter (or at least 50/50 guy) anyways.

 

Now the Twins have a huge hole in the OF to start the season (unless they want to rush Buxton, or have both Sano and Arcia in the OF opening day, which believe me, is a disaster waiting to happen)

Edited December 11, 2015 by DaveW

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed, Bethancourt would have been a great target. Murphy is just more of the same (mediocre player who projects to be a backup or a below average starter if everything goes right)

Bethancourt MiLB OPS: .694

Murphy MiLB OPS: .733

John HIcks MILB OPS: .734

 

Bethancourt MLB OPS: .527

Murphy MLB OPS: .685

 

I'm not saying Murphy will have a better career than Bethancourt but your schtick of railing on every single decision Ryan makes is getting old, Dave.

 

There's a reason Bethancourt was traded for a song. He's a former decent (not great, just decent) prospect who has fallen on hard times. He's still relatively young (but so is Murphy) so there's hope he turns it around but he's a project, not an MLB player you rely on going into the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I do think however Hicks was moved way to soon, as the OP notes, there were plenty of catchers avail via FA and the Twins are planning on trotting out suzuki as the starter (or at least 50/50 guy) anyways.

I'm still not entirely sold on the Hicks/Murphy trade and it surprised me how quickly Ryan moved this offseason but I can't fault the guy for locking down the most problematic position for the Twins as quickly as possible.

 

He's getting hammered for moving too quickly at catcher - a notoriously difficult position to fill - but is also getting hammered for not moving quickly enough at reliever - the easiest position to fill.

 

I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Ryan had already shored up the bullpen. I'd also feel a lot more comfortable if people were more consistent with their arguments.

[DaveW]

 

Bethancourt MiLB OPS: .694

Murphy MiLB OPS: .733

John HIcks MILB OPS: .734

 

Bethancourt MLB OPS: .527

Murphy MLB OPS: .685

 

I'm not saying Murphy will have a better career than Bethancourt but your schtick of railing on every single decision Ryan makes is getting old, Dave.

 

There's a reason Bethancourt was traded for a song. He's a former decent (not great, just decent) prospect who has fallen on hard times. He's still relatively young (but so is Murphy) so there's hope he turns it around but he's a project, not an MLB player you rely on going into the season.

The "Dave rails on every TR move" meme is tired and not true. I have said repeatably how I like the Park signing (assuming they can move Plouffe), I liked the Ervin Santana signing, the original Hughes deal etc.

 

Bethancourt

A. Has more upside then both Hicks and Murphy, he was a top 100 prospect going into 2015.

B. He put up a .840 OPS in AAA last year, that is more important to me then his OPS as a 16 and 17 year old in the minors, putting up his "overall" numbers is an apples to oranges comparison since he was 16,17,18 in the minors while the other two guys were not. Hicks was drafted out of college for petes sake and his first year in the minors he was 21! Which brings up another great point, Bethancourt is still a few years younger then both guys!

 

 

So:

Bethancourt is a guy who cracked top 100 lists multiple times in his career, as recent as last year, Hicks and Murphy have not. He also is a few years younger then them as well. So yes, this fits right into the "upside" argument I have made.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by DaveW

[Brock Beauchamp]

He put up a .840 OPS in AAA last year, that is more important to me then his OPS as a 16 and 17 year old in the minors, putting up his "overall" numbers is an apples to oranges comparison since he was 16,17,18 in the minors while the other two guys were not.

Bethancourt hit AA as a 20 year old. Murphy hit AA as a 21 year old. You're talking up Bethancourt's .840 AAA OPS while downplaying Murphy's .734 MLB OPS. In essence, you're blaming Murphy for not getting demoted.

 

As a 21 year old, Bethancourt repeated AA. Murphy played part of the season in AA. For all intents and purposes, they put up identical numbers (Bethancourt had a slight advantage in OPS, well within any kind of margin of error).

 

You're acting like Bethancourt is some raw 20 year old and Murphy is 30 years old. Murphy is 25, Bethancourt 24.

[DaveW]

 

Bethancourt hit AA as a 20 year old. Murphy hit AA as a 21 year old. You're talking up Bethancourt's .840 AAA OPS while downplaying Murphy's .734 MLB OPS. In essence, you're blaming Murphy for not getting demoted.

 

You're acting like Bethancourt is some raw 20 year old and Murphy is 30 years old. Murphy is 25, Bethancourt 24.

Again the main thing is it comes down to upside and cost.

The Twins could have gotten Bethancourt without giving up Hicks (A guy they actually could very much use in 2016)

Bethancourt also by every measure has a higher upside then Murphy (just look at the propsect rankings and scouting reports)

You say the "Twins fixed" the problem at catcher, but it looks like a half ass fix to me since Suzuki will still be getting at least half of the playing time.

 

I would much rather go the route of bringing in Bethancourt and seeing if he can reach his potential as a very good catcher, instead of trading an asset like Hicks for a guy that nearly every scouting report on the planet has pegged as a back up catcher who someday could be "average"

[USAFChief]

 

I'm still not entirely sold on the Hicks/Murphy trade and it surprised me how quickly Ryan moved this offseason but I can't fault the guy for locking down the most problematic position for the Twins as quickly as possible.

 

He's getting hammered for moving too quickly at catcher - a notoriously difficult position to fill - but is also getting hammered for not moving quickly enough at reliever - the easiest position to fill.

 

I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Ryan had already shored up the bullpen. I'd also feel a lot more comfortable if people were more consistent with their arguments.

off topic, but a pet peave of mine:  I often read that the bullpen is "the easiest position to fill."

 

Nothing could be farther from the truth.  You need about 10 relievers, minimum, to get through a season.  There aren't enough good relievers available to put even 5 on each team.  I'd be willing to wager every single team in contention over the past 40 years was, to one extent or another, looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline.

 

If it were true that bullpen is the easiest position to fill, we all should be calling for TR's head on a platter, no?  He hasn't adequately "filled" the position of bullpen for any team he's ever been a GM on.  

 

It's possible no GM in the last 40 years of baseball has "filled" the bullpen well.

 

Finding enough good relievers to "fill" a bullpen might be the single hardest thing a GM is faced with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you're trying to patch a problem on the MLB roster, there comes a time where "rehabilitation project" is not a phrase you're interested in pursuing.

 

Listen, I'm not some huge fan of JR Murphy. I don't think his ceiling is very high... But we said similar things about Plouffe and Dozier in the past. What Murphy does bring to the table is stability and a short track record of success. Will it turn out to be a good move for the Twins? Well, I'm not sold on the move so I'm skeptical but I'm not going to blast the trade much, either. In a talent-for-talent swap, it was a pretty fair deal. Now the rest will be played out on the baseball diamond and we'll find out whether the Twins' or Yankees' scouts were smarter.

 

But Bethancourt isn't even an option. This is 2016 and the Twins are trying to win. In 2013 or 2014, yeah, you go after a Bethancourt but you don't rely on that guy to fill your 25 man roster when your starting catcher is Kurt-friggin-Suzuki.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

off topic, but a pet peave of mine:  I often read that the bullpen is "the easiest position to fill."

 

Nothing could be farther from the truth.  You need about 10 relievers, minimum, to get through a season.  There aren't enough good relievers available to put even 5 on each team.  I'd be willing to wager every single team in contention over the past 40 years was, to one extent or another, looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline.

 

If it were true that bullpen is the easiest position to fill, we all should be calling for TR's head on a platter, no?  He hasn't adequately "filled" the position of bullpen for any team he's ever been a GM on.  

 

It's possible no GM in the last 40 years of baseball has "filled" the bullpen well.

 

Finding enough good relievers to "fill" a bullpen might be the single hardest thing a GM is faced with.

Not fill it, just find one or two guys. That's not terribly difficult.

 

If the Twins were shopping for 3-5 guys, yeah... That's damned near impossible. But given the plethora of relievers available at any moment and your need of just one or two of them (both don't even have to be great), that's not a particularly tall order to fill.

 

The Twins have two guys locked into the back of the pen - Jepsen and Perkins. May might end up there. I don't like it but it might happen. That's three above average relievers. All you need at that point is one more decent righty and a decent lefty, though a shutdown lefty who can be a one-inning guy would be preferred, obviously.