Article: Ryan, Twins Left Out In The Cold At Winter Meetings

[Nick Nelson]

It's pretty tough to put a good face on this one. Sure, there is plenty of offseason left to go, but what we've seen at this week's Winter Meetings has been a roundly discouraging display from Terry Ryan and the Twins front office.

 

While their inactivity during this Hot Stove hotbed may not be historically atypical, it certainly comes off much more poorly now than it has in the past.The reaction to this uneventful week in Nashville, from many longtime Twins fans, has been a shrug of the shoulders. "What did you expect?" That is fair, to an extent, but the circumstances and stakes were significantly different this time around than in previous years.

 

The Twins headed to Nashville with a very specific need, by their own admission. Not only did they fail to address it, but by all accounts they showed little interest in even trying to address it in a meaningful way.

 

While top free agent relievers like Darren O'Day, Joakim Soria and Shawn Kelley have come off the board, the Twins stood pat, with reporters concluding that the club's sole focus was on adding a left-handed reliever.

 

That makes some sense. Although the Twins lack any clearly exceptional right-handers in the bullpen, they undeniably have a stronger need for at least one lefty. But La Velle E. Neal III reported that the top southpaws on the market, Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp (who signed with Houston today), were not even on the team's radar. If that wording is to be believed, the Twins didn't even have material interest in pursuing the most impactful options at an area of need when all it would have cost was money. For a club that purportedly has championship aspirations and plentiful payroll flexibility, that's a tough pill to swallow.

 

What makes this passive approach to addressing the bullpen all the more frustrating is that throughout the league, other contenders are stacking up dominant back-end relief units, putting the Twins well behind the pack. Here are the top three relievers, presently, for five likely postseason contenders in the American League following Houston's acquisition of Philly phenom Ken Giles on Thursday:

 

Royals: Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria

Astros: Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp

Yankees: Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Chasen Shreve

Red Sox: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith

Tigers: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Lowe, Justin Wilson

 

With the exception of Shreve (and I'm guessing the Yanks aren't done yet), every name listed there is an established premier relief arm. The Twins don't currently have one of those on their staff outside of Glen Perkins, whose status is somewhat in doubt. They had ample opportunity to target such a player this week but evidently elected not to. And while the possibilities of a major free agent signing or transformative trade remain in play, it's becoming increasingly difficult to believe that Ryan and the Twins are willing to take the steps necessary to bolster their bullpen to a point where it could even hold a candle to the ones listed above.

 

Instead, all we've seen them do this week is weaken their outlook in the relief corps. On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers selected reliever Zack Jones from Minnesota in the Rule 5 draft. The 2012 fourth-round pick throws some serious gas and has put together a 2.63 ERA while averaging 12.8 K/9 on the farm, but was perplexingly left unprotected when the Twins made a series of 40-man roster moves last month.

 

Jones has his flaws, to be sure, but his upside is undeniable and his penchant for missing bats has held steady as he has climbed the minor-league ranks. That a Twins team that ranked last in the majors in bullpen K-rate this year, and appears to be relying almost completely on its prospect pipeline to alleviate that issue, would allow a nearly MLB-ready player like Jones to slip away while opting instead to protect a low-ceiling mediocrity like Pat Dean -- who is completely redundant on the 40-man with southpaws like Logan Darnell and Taylor Rogers present -- signals a disheartening miscalculation of priorities.

 

As much as I'd like to believe that this organization is evolving into a committed and dedicated winner with the proper mentality to succeed, weeks like this one really make me skeptical.

 

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[Loosey]

Thank you for the honest and open article.  I agree 100% with every take you made and have the same feelings of doubt and skepticism.  The fact the Twins had no interest in the best bullpen arms make me question Terry Ryan and if he really has a plan.

[DocBauer]

I am often a defender of Ryan, though not afraid to call him out if I disagree with him. And he still has time, via trade or FA to make moves to help the club. And there are players available. But as of now, I am very disappointed with the lack of events this past week.

 

While I applaud several moves TR has made the past couple of years, CF and the bullpen have had the feel of "hope and cross fingers" the kids are ready soon. 

 

Strong, LH set up men do not grow on trees. To have access to a couple on the market that wouldn't cost a fortune, that could have a huge impact on the depth and functionality of your bullpen, and to do nothing about it has me rather ticked. There are a handful of experienced RH relievers nearing the end that could possibly be had on fair 1 year deals, that along with a quality LH set up man, could mesh well with what we have on hand to build a really top end bullpen for 2016.

 

We can't make the mistake of just waiting for help to arrive. 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

Unless I'm missing something, Terry Ryan has never--not once--signed a reliever from another organization to more than a 1 yr contract.  In going on 2 decades as Twins GM.

 

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised.

 

 

[Han Joelo]

I respect your analysis, but count me as a shoulder shrugger--for now.  I don't shop on Black Friday because I know there are plenty of deals to be had later; some even better.

 

I don't actually need a bigger TV, even though they won't be available later at the same price--maybe.  Nor do I think the Twins need to join in the copycat bullpen bolstering bonanza of 2015.  I'd swear it wasn't that long ago when Brandon League's three year contract was being mocked with disdain.

 

If I recall correctly, the Royals bullpen (not the current one) that everyone is emulating was actually built in-house with minor leaguers, failed starters, and post-injury fliers like Madson.

[rukavina]

Relievers were the Moneyball surprise this year.  This gets magnified by free agency, where the winner overpays.  It disappoints me little that Ryan chose not to sign anyone.  If the Twins are in it come July, relievers will be much cheaper.  And the controlled arms in the farm system will sort themselves out.  This is at most a win over the course of a season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I respect your analysis, but count me as a shoulder shrugger--for now.  I don't shop on Black Friday because I know there are plenty of deals to be had later; some even better.

 

I don't actually need a bigger TV, even though they won't be available later at the same price--maybe.  Nor do I think the Twins need to join in the copycat bullpen bolstering bonanza of 2015.  I'd swear it wasn't that long ago when Brandon League's three year contract was being mocked with disdain.

 

If I recall correctly, the Royals bullpen (not the current one) that everyone is emulating was actually built in-house with minor leaguers, failed starters, and post-injury fliers like Madson.

 

Except there is not a scarcity of resources for you. There are only so many good RP on the planet. Every one of them that moves to a new team this off season, is one less the Twins have to choose from.

 

As for the last sentence.......name the failed starter other than Perkins the Twins have converted in the last decade to really good RP.

 

This team was a .500 team last year, that had more good luck than bad luck in producing outcomes. Not adding talent to that team (and if you are Torii believer, losing talent) is unlikely to make this a WS contender.

[AKTwins]

I'm not losing any sleep.  Making a move over the couple days at the Winter Meeting does not make the move better than a move done a couple months later.  I saw on MLB trade rumors the Twins are checking in on Storen.  That would be a good move.  I understand why Ryan does not want a LOOGY.  We have guys that can fill that role. We have plenty of prospects, there should be options available in a trade.

[Vanimal46]

I'm just tired of the same song and dance every off-season whether the Twins are coming off a 60 win season or 90 win season. TR waits until the market settles, and makes middling, underwhelming moves once the dust settles (with the exception of the SP signings)

 

It would be a welcomed breath of fresh air if TR was aggressive in targeting a player he wants, and get him signed, instead of waiting to see who's left.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Heading into the meetings, I wasn't too excited about going all in on a RP (even more so if it was a lefty specialist). Relief pitching is so inconsistent that shelling out big money or losing decent prospects for a reliever coming off a good year is asking for trouble.

 

The Dean vs. Jones issue is a much bigger deal in my opinion. It speaks to not having a plan or at least not being consistent to that plan.

 

Having a 40-man crowded with quad-A lefthanded starters who at best may turn into lefty long relievers is a problem. Accepting it or not addressing it calls into question the logic and ability of the front office.

[Loosey]

 

I'm not losing any sleep.  Making a move over the couple days at the Winter Meeting does not make the move better than a move done a couple months later.  I saw on MLB trade rumors the Twins are checking in on Storen.  That would be a good move.  I understand why Ryan does not want a LOOGY.  We have guys that can fill that role. We have plenty of prospects, there should be options available in a trade.

But to get Storen the Twins have to give up assets other than money.  The Free Agent relievers could essentially be bought for multiple years with cold hard cash.  Storen will require a player, and then if the Twins want him for longer than a year they will have to ante up the cash part.  And there is no guarantee he will stay here even if we make an offer, so the Twins could possibly just give away a prospect for 1 year use of a guy.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm just tired of the same song and dance every off-season whether the Twins are coming off a 60 win season or 90 win season. TR waits until the market settles, and makes middling, underwhelming moves once the dust settles (with the exception of the SP signings)

It would be a welcomed breath of fresh air if TR was aggressive in targeting a player he wants, and get him signed, instead of waiting to see who's left.

 

With all due respect, I think this is 100% inaccurate... if anything, TR may move too quickly most offseasons. 

 

The year he came back, he signed Josh Willingham and Jamey Carroll before the Winter Meetings (I think there was a third guy too).

 

Three years ago, he traded Denard Span before the Winter Meetings and Ben Revere in the Winter Meetings.

 

Two years ago, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were both signed before the winter meetings.

 

Last year, he signed Ervin Santana at the Winter Meetings.

 

Of course, in recent years, the Twins have had more needs. This year, they've been pretty vocal. They want one thing, LH RP. They don't have it yet. We'll see if he gets it or if not, if he'll go after a Storen or someone really good like that. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

The Dean vs. Jones issue is a much bigger deal in my opinion. It speaks to not having a plan or at least not being consistent to that plan.

 

Now, whether a person agrees with the decision to protect Dean or Jones is one thing, but I don't think it's at all fair to say that they don't have a plan. That makes it sound like they just picked names out of a hate to decide who to protect. From my understanding of the organizational meetings following the season, there is often heated debate on every player from the big leagues to the GCL (maybe even the DSL). They didn't take adding Dean or leaving Jones off lightly. Maybe there are factors that we haven't considered.

 

Let's also remember that with his control issues (and other things), it's very possible that either Jones comes back to the organization in spring, or they acquire some other prospect to let the Brewers keep him.

[Mike Sixel]

If Ryan thinks they are one LH RP away from being awesome......well, we will likely disagree on that I think.

[Vanimal46]

 

With all due respect, I think this is 100% inaccurate... if anything, TR may move too quickly most offseasons. 

 

The year he came back, he signed Josh Willingham and Jamey Carroll before the Winter Meetings (I think there was a third guy too).

 

Three years ago, he traded Denard Span before the Winter Meetings and Ben Revere in the Winter Meetings.

 

Two years ago, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were both signed before the winter meetings.

 

Last year, he signed Ervin Santana at the Winter Meetings.

 

Of course, in recent years, the Twins have had more needs. This year, they've been pretty vocal. They want one thing, LH RP. They don't have it yet. We'll see if he gets it or if not, if he'll go after a Storen or someone really good like that. 

 

Touche, Seth. I guess my perception the last few off-season is different than the reality. 

[Brandon]

I'm kinda bummed cause of how this week was played out bit were looking for a reliever or 2 and a backup OF. I noticed TR is focused on a bridge gap type of reliever on a short term commitment as I think he is planning on our younger relievers comming up in short order. That is why I think he avoided the long term contracts cause we can obviously afford one. Vs it's frustrating cause we can obviously afford a reliever contract and didn't get obligated on one and block the reliever comming up.

[ScooterDance]

I'll add my resounding Boooooo to the mix.

 

Not because I think TR is a donk, the twins have no plan, or that zack jones is gone. But because I want to see my favorite team improve. Having no idea what TR was looking at, what deals were offered, what prospective trade partners (teehee prospective) may have wanted or offered, I have little to add from a baseball standpoint.

 

I just know we were luckier than we were good last year, and I want us to be lucky AND good next. So my disappointment lies mostly in the fear of the unknown. Then again, we could be the 2014-2015 Padres.

[Brandon]

Failed starters turned reliever 1. Guerrier, 2. Deunsing, 3. Rincon 4.Joe Nathan 5. LaTroy Hawkins 6. Eddie Guardado not counting Perkins so the above comment about not transitioning failed starters is void.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Failed starters turned reliever 1. Guerrier, 2. Deunsing, 3. Rincon 4.Joe Nathan 5. LaTroy Hawkins 6. Eddie Guardado not counting Perkins so the above comment about not transitioning failed starters is void.

 

In the last 10 years........that's what I asked, right?

[mnfireman]

Yeah, let's make a move just to keep the twins daily blog posters happy!

 

Because the team never fully committed to a rebuild, they are stuck in flux; the prospects are almost ready and no major leaguer wants to sign a one year contract to fill the void until they are. Deal with it boys and girls.

 

80-85 wins again this year, middle of the pack.

[Platoon]

I am not as concerned with what we didn't do, as with what we might. I would have rather seen cash spent, for a shut down RP, adding instead of subtracting, than trade a good prospect. If I wake up and find a Rosario, Polanco, Kepler, or a high velocity reliever gone for two years of another control type RP I will flip. But I don't think we should be surprised. Keeping Fien sort of set the bar. And letting Jones go was more evidence that they talk velocity, but have yet to actually practice it. With strike outs come walks. That doesn't go over well in Twins Territory!

[Han Joelo]

 

In the last 10 years........that's what I asked, right?

You're totally right, of course. But then again, the Twins haven't had a whole lot of success developing any pitching the last ten years.

 

 However, I was just (trying) to point out that a lot of teams seem to be emulating the Royals Ultra-Lockdown Bullpen (RULBing, if you will,) but missing the fact that the Royals didn't build that bullpen by shopping for free agents.  I don't really know Herrera or Holland's history as starters, but Wade Davis was a converted starter, as was Hochevar, and Madson was a cheap, bargain-bin pickup.

 

Having said that, wouldn't some here agree that the Twins may be on the cusp of a wave of converted-starter relief help?  May, Rogers, Meyer, et al?  Do we really need to be paying Tony Sipp $7 Million dollars for his age 35 season?

[Brandon]

The first 4 were pitching 4 the Twins through 2009 2010 so that shortens the 10 years quite a bit. Plus deunsing has been with the team the last 7.

[thegambler]

Han, normally I might agree with you. However, or starting pitching throws slow, not ideal for true bullpen help.

[Brandon]

I'm only bummed about losing Jones cause I followed him longer than the other 8 reliever prospects we have that are almost ready to come up which is why TR is looking at reliever on a 1 year deal instead of 1 on a 3 year deal. He could have signed a reliever long term but we don't need one cause of all the prospects comming up.

[nicksaviking]

Unless I'm missing something, Terry Ryan has never--not once--signed a reliever from another organization to more than a 1 yr contract.  In going on 2 decades as Twins GM.

 

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised.

Are you suggesting the plan from the onset of the signing wasn't for Nolasco to end up in the pen?

[mikelink45]

 

I'm just tired of the same song and dance every off-season whether the Twins are coming off a 60 win season or 90 win season. TR waits until the market settles, and makes middling, underwhelming moves once the dust settles (with the exception of the SP signings)

It would be a welcomed breath of fresh air if TR was aggressive in targeting a player he wants, and get him signed, instead of waiting to see who's left.

SP is not the exception.  We pick from the dust bin and then wonder why we have so many long term contracts and so little talent.

[mikelink45]

Isn't this the TR history.  When did we last make news at the meetings?  In fact, TR does his shopping early and then watches.  What he picks up late is often what we wish we could get rid of later. 

He is not a mover or a shaker - although I suspect that he does shake his head in disbelief at the other events. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm dismayed by the inactivity. There aren't many free agent options left, and I don't want to be one of those sucker teams giving up good prospects for relief pitchers.

 

However, despite my desire for action, my first hope for the 2016 pen was to throw Burdi, Meyer, Chargois, Peterson (and Jones) right into the fire and see which of them has what we need. So while this team has historically been extremely averse to relying on young arms, if something like this does come to pass, I'll be satisfied regardless of the results.

 

I can't say that I like the idea of waiting four months to cast judgement though, I do like to point fingers.

[David HK]

 

Unless I'm missing something, Terry Ryan has never--not once--signed a reliever from another organization to more than a 1 yr contract.  In going on 2 decades as Twins GM.

 

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised.

True.  Shouldn't be surprised, it's par for the course.  But dang it, I wanna be surprised for a change!  It's even Xmas time, come on, TR!  

I'm not one of the 'fire TR' ranks, but I often question the judgement of the FO.  And if we go into another spring, like last year, with a bunch of castoffs and "who's he?" dudes in the pen, I'm gonna be foaming at the mouth along with the rest.  The BIGGEST, most glaring weakness of the team all year long, not addressed at the winter meetings.  FFS.