Article: Shields For Nolasco: Would You Do It?

[Tom Froemming]

Twins fans have been trying to dream up ways to get rid of Ricky Nolasco and his nightmare contract basically from the moment the ink dried on his signature.That exercise has usually entailed finding a similarly terrible contract to swap. After a disappointing first season in San Diego, James Shields' name has been often floated out as a target of late.My immediate reaction to a potential Nolasco for Shields trade is it would be a dream swap for the Twins.

 

After looking into it further, and considering the long-term ramifications, I'm not even convinced I'd pull the trigger on a straight up swap if I was Terry Ryan.

 

Yes, Shields is the superior pitcher, but his contract carries far more risk going forward. The Twins still owe Nolasco $25 million ($12 million the next two seasons followed by a $1 million buyout), but Shields still has $65 million left on his deal ($21 million over the next three years and a $2 million buyout for the fourth).

 

That $40 extra million surely could be better spent elsewhere, and while getting rid of Nolasco is an enticing idea, taking on Shields may be a subtraction by addition.

 

Beyond the financial commitment, there are huge question marks surrounding Shields and some reason for optimism for Nolasco. Shields had a 3.91 ERA, gave up a league-high 33 homers and actually had a higher FIP (4.45) in 2015 than the mark Nolasco has posted over his two seasons in Minnesota (4.15). He also had a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio over the same time frames (2.67 to Nolasco's 2.88).

 

Nolasco has been a disaster so far in his time with the Twins, but he may have been a victim of some bad luck as well. His BABIPs the past two seasons have been .392 and .351. He is always going to give up a higher than average amount of hard contact, but I would expect his BABIP to fall more toward his career mark of .314. Shields, in case you were wondering, had a .299 BABIP last season.

 

With all that said, I would certainly still expect Shields to be the superior pitcher in 2016. He also has a reputation of being a positive influence on a pitching staff and has been an absolute horse, pitching more than 200 innings nine-straight seasons. My worry is in '15 we started seeing the beginning of the end and all that work has started to pile up on his arm.

 

If nothing else, Nolasco should be at least have a fresh arm after throwing just 37.1 innings last season. And if we're going to address intangibles and credit Shields for his leadership, Nolasco should also get a tip of the cap for working his way back from an ankle injury to start the final game of the season when he had very little incentive to push to return prior to the season's end.

 

Also, if I'm the Twins I'm trying to move Nolasco for anything but another starting pitcher. There's no question Tyler Duffey deserves to start the '16 season in the rotation, I would also prefer to see Trevor May starting again and Jose Berrios has very little (if anything ) to prove in the minors.

 

What do you think? Am I crazy? Would you trade Nolasco for Shields straight up?

 

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[Blake]

No.

 

After further review: No.

 

 

 

 

[Linus]

I actually think there is a reasonable chance that Nolasco is competent in 2016. He's finally healthy and has plenty to prove. I don't necessarily want him in the rotation but he could contribute out of the pen. I wouldn't do the proposed trade because I wouldn't ever get obligated for big money to a player in their mid 30s

[Darius]

Yes, because I don't care how much money the Pohlad's spend. They're dirt cheap, so we're all under the impression that they "can't afford it." They could pay Shields 10x over and still be clearing boat loads.

 

Let's stop protecting the Pohlad's pocketbook for them. We already paid for their stadium.

[Darius]

May should be a reliever. I really like him in that role. It suits his personality much more, IMO.

 

Milone shouldn't be in the rotstion if you're serious about winning the division and playoff games. Nice spot guy and LR, but I don't want him for 180 innings.

 

Berrios won't see the majors until he hits midnight on the service time clock, if we're being honest about it.

 

Shields, Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey is a legit rotation top to bottom. No dominant ace, but no real glaring weak link, either. It won't happen, but the rotation would be unquestionably better in 2016. They can easily make room for Berrios when the time comes, if they really wanted to (Someone will struggle or get hurt. It's clockwork).

[nicksaviking]

The problem with this swap as I see it, is Shields would be guaranteed a rotation spot, Nolasco likely not. So the question really is not is Shields an upgrade to Nolasco, it's is Shields an upgrade over May, Duffey or Berrios?

At this point? Likely yes. By mid season? Tough call. In three years? I have no desire to see a 35-year-old in the rotation.

[h2oface]

Shields will soon be a Nolasco. I dream of a Twins GM shopping with much higher  standards.

Edited December 8, 2015 by h2oface

[kab21]

I would do this but it also has to include Milone going somewhere (anywhere for anything to offset the higher contract).  The one big thing that this cements is that May will be a RP'er.  So far the FA market is dwindling and the Twins really need help in the bullpen.  With this move the Twins upgrade the rotation and the bullpen while keeping Berrios in AAA as the 6th starter.

[Tom Froemming]

 

The problem with this swap as I see it, is Shields would be guaranteed a rotation spot, Nolasco likely not. So ithe question really is not is Shields an upgrade to Nolasco, it's is Shields an upgrade over May, Duffey or Berrios?

At this point? Likely yes. By mid season? Tough call. In three years? I have no desire to see a 35-year-old in the rotation.

That's a good point, and there's definitely an argument Shields isn't even better than those guys today. Combining Duffy and May's starts (disregarding May's relief work), you get a 3.88 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. Shields had a 3.91 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year ... in the NL ... pitching his home games in a notorious pitcher's park.

[DaveW]

James Shields: 2011-2014 3.17 ERA 233IP per year! 3.49 FIP, 8.0 K 2.3 BB 1.1155 WHIP

Jame Shields 2015: 3.91 ERA 201 IP

 

NTM the Shields in 2011-2014 was in the AL and in 2014 posted great numbers across the board.
Anyone who says Nolasco is better then Shields in 2016 is being very very very optimistic with no backing.

 

Shields for Nolasco straight up? Uh, yes, 100%, all day, every day. The Padres would have to be high to consider such a deal, and Terry Ryan would have to be high to turn down such a deal!

[DaveW]

 

 

 it's is Shields an upgrade over May, Duffey or Berrios?
 

In 2016? 95% chance on all three.

In 2017-2018? 60% chance on Berrios, 75% on Duffey and May (and I like BOTH very much)

 

Nothing stops the Twins from trading any of Gibson, Milone, Santana etc at anypoint as well.

[DaveW]

 

 

I would do this but it also has to include Milone going somewhere (anywhere for anything to offset the higher contract).  The one big thing that this cements is that May will be a RP'er.  So far the FA market is dwindling and the Twins really need help in the bullpen.  With this move the Twins upgrade the rotation and the bullpen while keeping Berrios in AAA as the 6th starter.

I think Milone should be traded for anything, anywhere regardless.

 

Shields

Santana

Duffey

Gibson

Hughes

 

Berrios/May waiting in the wings.

That is a damn nice rotation if Shields can revert to his 2013/2014 mode (Where he was pitching in the same division)

 

If Hughes looks shaky/injured to begin the season. DL him or start him in the pen, that opens up May's shot.

If June rolls around and Berrios is pushing for a spot? Figure out a way to trade Gibson.

 

Make no mistake, Shields instantly becomes the best pitcher the Twins have if they trade for him.

 

 

[kab21]

There is almost no chance that the Twins are able to sign a solid RP'er if they acquire Shields.  May would have to head to the pen and there is no turning back. 

 

But I prefer Shields (SP)/May (RP) to May (SP)/FA (RP).

 

[DaveW]

 

There is almost no chance that the Twins are able to sign a solid RP'er if they acquire Shields.  May would have to head to the pen and there is no turning back. 

 

But I prefer Shields (SP)/May (RP) to May (SP)/FA (RP).

Why is that the case?

If they trade Milone and Plouffe (which they should do regardless) that frees up $10+ million in 2016 and even more in 2017, plenty of money to sign a Clippard, trade for a Storen or go with Rodney as a plan be.

Edited December 8, 2015 by DaveW

[SwainZag]

 

In 2016? 95% chance on all three.

In 2017-2018? 60% chance on Berrios, 75% on Duffey and May (and I like BOTH very much)

 

Nothing stops the Twins from trading any of Gibson, Milone, Santana etc at anypoint as well.

 

I don't see how you can give percentages when they really are no better than a blind guess.

 

The facts.  Shields turns 34 in 3 weeks.  His BB/9 and  HR/9 were both nearly career highs even though he pitched in a pitcher's park and in the NL.  The velocity on every single one of his pitches was down between .5 - 1.5 MPH, his ERA was the worst it had been in 5 years, his FIP the highest it's ever been and his LOB% was the best it's ever been.  I won't ignore his K/9 as they were up, a career high even, but it's the only positive stat.

 

I am a Shields fan and enjoy watching him pitch, but every warning sign points to decline, while the money is pretty damn big, even taking Nolasco into consideration.  3 years of Shields or 2 years of Nolasco and $39 million dollars? 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

his ERA was the worst it had been in 5 years, his FIP the highest it's ever been and his LOB% was the best it's ever been.  I won't ignore his K/9 as they were up, a career high even, but it's the only positive stat.

 

 

You can hold that opinion, but he is only 34, not 40. He never was a "power pitcher" anyways, so he should be able to age better then those types anyways, he had 4 very, very productive years followed by one not as productive year but solid year anyways (make no doubt about it, a sub 4.00 ERA and 200+ IP is still productive)

 

So either Shields had an outlier bad year, on a bad team that under-preformed all around or that Shields at 33 is toast.

 

I think the former is the more likely scenario and you seem to content that the latter is the scenario. That ok, we can disgaree. But in terms of getting rid of Nolasco, and bringing in Shields (+39 million for 3 years or whatever) I tend to think the risk is well worth the potential reward. $13 mil a year that we would essentially owe him in this deal basically comes out to just a couple million less than what we paid Pelfrey+Stauffer last year.

 

They can afford this "risk" all day, especially when his absolute floor still seems to be a guy who will give you 200IP, a good k rate and a sub 4.00 ERA regardless.

[howeda7]

I would absolutely do it. Nolasco hates it here. Anyone who talks to them into how he's just sure to bounce back this year is kidding themselves.

 

Meanwhile, Shields may be due for a decline, but it's hardly a certainty. As others have said, he's 34, not 40.  And there's no doubt he's better than Nolasco. The Twins can afford the extra $$. Do it.

[Baseball Bat]

I think this thread is a good example of overvaluing our own players. James Shields coming to the Twins instantaneously makes him the best strikeout pitcher we have. He struckout almost 10 per 9 innings last season during a down year and has a great track record in the American league. If I'm the Padres I don't do this trade straight up but if I am the Twins I do it no questions asked. Shields will be an asset to the Twins as he consistently has a mid 3's ERA and pitches over 200 innings. Ricky Nolasco is not a good pitcher, at least not in the American League. I take the 34, 35, and 36 year old season of James Shields it costs me Ricky Nolasco and the last three years of Shields deal. I mean have you seen what some of these pitchers are getting now in free agency? Why is that even a question right now? 

 

According to Mike Berardino, an annonymous GM said it will be nearly impossible to move Nolasco, at least until he shows something in the spring. Ricky Nolasco has absolutely no value to clubs. The only reason he would have value to the Padres is they will save an extra year and $40 million as they are clearly going in a different direction than the Twins. 

 

This trade would give us a rotation of Santana, Shields, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes, and free up opportunities make starting pitching a position of strength that the Twins could trade from. For example, say Berrios comes up in May and is a stud. The Twins could trade a guy like Gibson who has a highish value and not skip a beat. The Twins would never trade Gibson to make way for Nolasco.

 

So I ask everyone this: Do you take a guy that will at best be in the bullpen and pitch not awful and at worst never throw again for the Twins and pay him $12.5 in 2016 or James Shields (Fangraph's projection) of 203 IP, a 3.68 ERA, and 9 K's per 9 innings. Those numbers for Shields would hands down be the best on the 2015 Twins staff and it is not even close. I'm paying the extra $9 million for Shields if the Padres would actually be dumb enough to take Nolasco.

 

And for those of you saying the Twins should spend there money elsewhere, there is a better chance that Terry Ryan goes on a dumpster diving mission once again and spends that $9 million next season on Fernando Rodney and another washed up reliever and then does the same thing over again rather than making a significant upgrade. This is a significant upgrade. To get a reward you have to take some risks every once in a while. So again, Ricky Nolasco, Fernando Rodney, and washed up reliever / utility player or 200 innings 9 K's per 9 James Shields. Take your pick 

Edited December 8, 2015 by Baseball Bat

[David HK]

Yep.

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

Yes, because I don't care how much money the Pohlad's spend. They're dirt cheap, so we're all under the impression that they "can't afford it." They could pay Shields 10x over and still be clearing boat loads.

Let's stop protecting the Pohlad's pocketbook for them. We already paid for their stadium.

Agreed. Seems like part of the (implied) deal that came with Target Field was that the Twins would be more aggressive in the free agent market. While the Twins have made some more aggressive free agent deals since playing at Target Field (with varying and mostly disappointing results) I also have no clue why fans would worry over spending too much money. This franchise has under spent its entire existence. How about we overspend for a few years (wisely) and reap those benefits.

[sane09]

Am I crazy? Would you trade Nolasco for Shields straight up?

No you are NOT crazy.

Yes, I would trade Nolasco for Shields straight up.

 

If I were the Padres, Would I trade Shields for Nolasco straight up?

You ARE @#$%@#$%@#$% crazy!!!

You must think that I am @#$%@#$%@#$% crazy!!!

I'd RATHER trade San Diego winters for Minnesota winters!

AIN'T NO BLEEPING WAY!

[HitInAPinch]

 

No you are NOT crazy.
Yes, I would trade Nolasco for Shields straight up.

If I were the Padres, Would I trade Shields for Nolasco straight up?
You ARE @#$%@#$%@#$% crazy!!!
You must think that I am @#$%@#$%@#$% crazy!!!
I'd RATHER trade San Diego winters for Minnesota winters!
AIN'T NO BLEEPING WAY!

Politely put  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't touch Shields with a 10 foot pole right now.  He really was bad last year, and that was in a pitchers park.  Not that Nolasco was good, but adding more years and money along with the risk that says that last year's Shields is the new normal for Nolasco makes no sense at all. 

[HitInAPinch]

I thought this topic had been beaten to death.  And here it's risen from the dead, again. 

Shields for Nolasco?  Even if the Padres want to dump his salary, no way do they trade Shields for a now middle reliever.  Mix and match additional parts all your want.  Still a no.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In 2016? 95% chance on all three.

In 2017-2018? 60% chance on Berrios, 75% on Duffey and May (and I like BOTH very much)

 

Nothing stops the Twins from trading any of Gibson, Milone, Santana etc at anypoint as well.

Or trading Shields again anytime from 2016-2018.

 

Shields is simply a much better asset right now than Nolasco, and it's not even close.  You can't wave away the massive difference in health and performance over the last 2 years, much less performance over their whole careers, just because Shields is one year older, signed one year longer, at a higher AAV.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The facts.  Shields turns 34 in 3 weeks.  His BB/9 and  HR/9 were both nearly career highs even though he pitched in a pitcher's park and in the NL.  The velocity on every single one of his pitches was down between .5 - 1.5 MPH, his ERA was the worst it had been in 5 years, his FIP the highest it's ever been and his LOB% was the best it's ever been.  I won't ignore his K/9 as they were up, a career high even, but it's the only positive stat.

Shields may have some warning signs of decline, but Nolasco is in full-blown decline the last 2 years.  There's a huge difference.

 

Heck, even with those warning signs in 2015:

 

- Shields topped 200 innings again for the 9th consecutive season -- Nolasco has only reach that level twice

 

- Shields still posted near MLB SP average run prevention in those innings too (Shields ERA- of 105, MLB SP average of 103-), 8 of 9 seasons at that level or better -- Nolasco again has only posted that level of run prevention twice

 

And of course the career high K rate as you mention, which suggests maybe he's capable of adapting to later career loss in stuff?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wouldn't touch Shields with a 10 foot pole right now.  He really was bad last year, and that was in a pitchers park.  Not that Nolasco was good, but adding more years and money along with the risk that says that last year's Shields is the new normal for Nolasco makes no sense at all. 

If over 200 innings at roughly league-average SP run prevention is the "new normal" for Shields, that's lights years ahead of the "new normal" established recently for Nolasco.

[Major League Ready]

I think there is a much better alternative than to make our 2yr/25M problem a 3yr/63M problem.  With the crazy money going to FA SPs, you have to believe there is a team that would take Nolasco if we paid 12 or the 25M owed him.  So, instead of trading for Shields, I take the $41M saved a buy 3 very good relievers for 3 years.  Then, I have room for 3 of Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, and May instead of only having room for two of them for the next 3 years.  Every single one of them is likely better than Shields in 2017 & 2018.

 

If you don’t like the bullpen angle, put the $41M toward signing Sano to an extension now.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[Otto von Ballpark]

In case my above posts weren't clear, the existence of this thread is absolutely baffling to me.

 

Jeff Samardzija just got a 5/90 deal, running through his age 35 season, after coming off a much worse season than Shields in 2015.  JA Happ just got 3/36, also through age 35, after being given away as a $2 mil salary dump in July.  Coming off a similar ERA+, Ervin Santana got $55 mil guaranteed through age 35 last winter.  Nolasco himself got $49 mil guaranteed two winters ago, albeit only through age 34 but with much worse career marks than even Shields' 2015 season.

 

Shields at 3/65 through age 36 isn't perfect, but as an asset it's light years ahead of Nolasco right now.

[USAFChief]

I'd trade Nolasco for Shields without so much as a second thought, but that's a pipe dream. No way SD gives away Shields for nothing. Shields still has value. Right now,you couldn't give Nolasco away.

 

A more realistic deal would be Nolasco for Melvin Upton.