Article: The Rising Cost Of Relief

[Nick Nelson]

The game of baseball is undergoing a transformation. The role of the bullpen has been gradually gaining prominence for many years (to the chagrin of old-schoolers like Bert Blyleven), but right now we're really seeing these units become more specialized and emphasized.

 

The way the Royals have ridden their dominating relievers to two American League pennants and a World Series win has not gone unnoticed by the 29 other teams.A couple weeks ago I suggested that the best path for the Twins to become a true World Series contender in 2016 was to focus on building an elite bullpen, one that could negate other weaknesses to a degree. We have since seen some of MLB's heaviest hitters follow that same blueprint.

 

The Dodgers reportedly have a trade in the works for Aroldis Chapman to complement Kenley Jensen. The Royals signed Joakim Soria to keep their pen infused with power and negate the loss of Greg Holland. The Red Sox traded a ransom to acquire Craig Kimbrel a month ago despite already having a pretty damn good closer in Koji Uehara, then picked up lights-out setup man Carson Smith from Seattle on Monday.

 

With the game shifting at a fundamental level, the market is responding accordingly. In the past few days alone, we have seen Soria and Baltimore's Darren O'Day sign huge long-term deals at rates that would have been unthinkable for non-closers in the not-so-distant past. Ryan Madson, who had missed three straight seasons before putting together a good 2015 as a sixth/seventh inning guy for Kansas City, amazingly got a three-year, $22 million deal from the Athletics.

 

Terry Ryan has been clear that bolstering the bullpen is his top priority at the Winter Meetings, but will he pay to play?

 

The Twins haven't traditionally made a habit of aggressively attacking the free agent relief market in the past, typically opting for one-year contracts and low-risk fliers. To their credit, they have struck gold on a few occasions through this method with players like Jared Burton and Casey Fien, but that mentality isn't the avenue to a true top-tier relief corps.

 

How much would it cost to add one of the remaining top free agents? Well, our contract projections from the Offseason Handbook have proven fairly accurate thus far, so here's a look at where we pegged some of the other big-name players:

 

Name | Handbook Estimate | Actual Contract

Darren O'Day, RH | 3 years, $27M | 4 years, $31M

Joakim Soria, RH | 3 years, $27M | 3 years, $25M

Mark Lowe, RH | 2 years, $10M | 2 years, $11M

Oliver Perez, LH | 2 years, $7M | 2 years, $7M

Tyler Clippard, RH | 4 years, $44M | ?

Antonio Bastardo, LH | 3 years, $21M | ?

Tony Sipp, LH | 3 years, $18M | ?

Shawn Kelley, RH | 3 years, $15M | ?

Matt Albers, RH | 2 years, $8M | ?

Matt Thornton, LH | 1 year, $4M | ?

Neal Cotts, LH | 1 year, $3M | ?

My hope is that the Twins will make a serious play for someone like Kelley or Tony Sipp, both of whom they have been connected to. My fear is that they'll end up settling for someone like Matt Thornton or Neal Cotts, who are respectable veteran arms but nothing more than that.

 

A big part of the reluctance to move on one of those higher-profile names might be the length of the required commitment; some of those three- and four-year terms are undoubtedly cringeworthy for Ryan given that he has numerous homegrown arms with big potential rising in the system.

 

But the Twins have a lot of question marks across the roster and the bullpen is no exception. Glen Perkins is coming off a brutal finish, Kevin Jepsen has been a fairly ordinary reliever for the majority of his career, Trevor May might end up as a starter, and there are currently no established lefty arms to speak of.

 

Will the Twins, who have undeniably turned a new leaf in their approach over the last few offseasons, take the kind of bold steps necessary to land one of the top remaining free agent relievers, or an impact player via trade?

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Impressive job on the projections.

 

I can't see the Twins signing a reliever for 3/20+, and I definitely don't want to see another 1 year, 3 million guy take up a spot. I'd rather see the Twins trade for the next Joe Nathan or find the next failed starter/ Wade Davis type. There must be an art to finding those guys.

 

Ryan O'Rourke strikes out 40% of lefties he faces. Burdi was absolutely shut down after his wake up call demotion to single A Fort Myers. Meyer and even Pressly can bring it high 90s. All could turn out to be savvy pick-ups. I know I'm in the minority but I say continue investing in those guys, certainly over signing another Stauffer type.

[DocBauer]

IMPO, Sipp or Bastardo are absolute musts for this team and this bullpen. Either provides a legitimate LH set up man for the late innings. Williams and Molotakis could do that...but not yet. We have some decent options to audition for the second LH in the pen, and I think Milone could be one of those options depending on how the rotation shakes out.

 

The team also needs another RH. With so many good, young, live arms on the way, I had my sights set on someone like the Hawk or Benoit; a hard throwing vet who could get it done for one more season. As discussed in another thread, Rodney could be that guy. Kelley would be a great second addition, and I'd be very happy to have him. And either he, or some of the young kids, could be traded in a year or so with value attached to them. But it might be simpler, cheaper, and prudent to go the 1-year veteran route.

[nicksaviking]

The pen clearly needs to be fixed, and I'm sure Ryan was forthright when he said fixing it was a top priority.

 

However I also wouldn't be surprised if Ryan is currently surprised and frustrated by the sudden cost in dollars, years and prospects bullpen help is going for currently. I would bet the front office didn't expect the free agent/trade market to play out this wildly. The market is already pretty picked through, I am beginning to become significantly concerned that the Twins will end up over compensating and getting a third or fourth tier reliever who will do little to fix the deficient strikeout problem, but give up prospects or committed years well beyond reason for such a pitcher.

 

I want a serious BP overhaul, but if the Twins can't get a couple of the remaining few true upgrades, I'd just as well prefer to see the fireballing minor leaguers get the job regardless of spring training performance. However with that the fear is that the Twins traditional comfort level for pitchers has always been based on experince, and we'll still see guys like Fien in high leverage situations even if a strikeout artist like Chargois, Burdi or Meyer are also in the pen.

[Seth Stohs]

Another reliever, Ryan Madson, got 3 years and $22 million from Oakland... and he didn't pitch from 2012-2014. 

[USAFChief]

The pen clearly needs to be fixed, and I'm sure Ryan was forthright when he said fixing it was a top priority.

However I also wouldn't be surprised if Ryan is currently surprised and frustrated by the sudden cost in dollars, years and prospects bullpen help is going for currently. I would bet the front office didn't expect the free agent/trade market to play out this wildly. The market is already pretty picked through, I am beginning to become significantly concerned that the Twins will end up over compensating and getting a third or fourth tier reliever who will do little to fix the deficient strikeout problem, but give up prospects or committed years well beyond reason for such a pitcher.

I want a serious BP overhaul, but if the Twins can't get a couple of the remaining few true upgrades, I'd just as well prefer to see the fireballing minor leaguers get the job regardless of spring training performance. However with that the fear is that the Twins traditional comfort level for pitchers has always been based on experince, and we'll still see guys like Fien in high leverage situations even if a strikeout artist like Chargois, Burdi or Meyer are also in the pen.

Isn't it Ryan's job to be out in front of trends, rather than be surprised and frustrated?

 

Actions speak louder than words. If improving the pen is truly a priority, do something about it.

 

Offering Fien and hoping on minor leaguers seems to me the opposite of "priority."

[nicksaviking]

Isn't it Ryan's job to be out in front of trends, rather than be surprised and frustrated?

Actions speak louder than words. If improving the pen is truly a priority, do something about it.

Offering Fien and hoping on minor leaguers seems to me the opposite of "priority."

I agree, however the relief market in 2016 seems to be playing out similarly to the starter market in 2013 when Ryan exhasberatedly said on MLB network that the Twins were trying to upgrade the rotation but they couldn't get anyone to bite. At the beginning of that offseason he also said upgrading the rotation was the top priority. They seemed to over compensate in money and years for swingman Kevin Correia that year after watching starters of all skill levels get far more than expected.

 

All I'm saying, is if the Twins can't do better than whoever the 2016 BP version of Kevin Correia is, go with the kids. I don't want a vet just because he's a vet.

[Rosterman]

Yeah, can afford to overspend on at least one arm. And a reliever can come and go, again depending on the price and the state of your team.

 

Yes, the Twins DO have prospects up the wazoo, so to speak, probably better than any arm in their current bullpen. They have to groom a future closer, and in the salary structures, probably another shortly after that. Trevor May could find a superstar role as a reliever if he so chooses.

 

Glen Perkins, for all his ups and few downs, is not the end game in gold. He best future role IS probably as a setup man as he ages...although (salary offerings) will keep him in the closer role, or signing with another team for one of those 3-year $30 million contracts in the future...as a setup guy...NOT with the Twins, sadly, though.

 

So the Twins should overspend on a longterm aging lefty (who better be close to lights out). Can they play the right-handed field, or do they need another guy and forget about Tonkin/Pressly/Graham and whomever for now and forever.

 

Press and Graham can still go back to the minors, so that is a blessing. But I'm not sure the answer to a contending team IS Darnell, O'Rourke or even Rogers/Dean in the bullpen. Maybe one of those guys can fill a space, but not two.

[USAFChief]

All I'm saying, is if the Twins can't do better than whoever the 2016 BP version of Kevin Correia is, go with the kids. I don't want a vet just because he's a vet.

Concur.

 

Those aren't the only options, though.

[rico7961]

Trade Plouffe for Will Smith and then trade whatever minor leaguers it takes to get Ken Giles. That would give you a REAL bullpen, with RHP (Giles, Jepsen, and May) and LHP (Perkins and Smith). Transactions like this, would actually help the payroll.  Probably, very impossible trades to make. But, one can dream. Smith, with 2 years of arb. Giles has 5 years of team control. One of the 2 would really help the team.

[David HK]

I heard earlier rumblings here about pursuing Tony Sipp-  I like that idea a lot.  We've got good help coming up from the farm, too, it's just a question of when some of 'em will be ripe enough to be picked.  Jeepers, those boys down in AZ looked durn good this fall, didn't they?

 

I swear, though, we simply can't get to spring again with that list of pedestrians and suspects like we had in the pen last year.  That was a disgrace, and the most glaring weakness in the team all year.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Bastardo's stuff is dirty so we should sign that dirty Bastardo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

even though the cost of relievers is rising, it isn't like these guys are getting 20M deals either.  Even the best ones are struggling to hit 10M, something the Twins can afford.  I don't have a problem signing a guy like Sipp or O'Day.  I'm also quite fine trading Plouffe and/or Milone for a good one as well.

[Platoon]

Isn't it Ryan's job to be out in front of trends, rather than be surprised and frustrated?

Actions speak louder than words. If improving the pen is truly a priority, do something about it.

Offering Fien and hoping on minor leaguers seems to me the opposite of "priority."

You quote includes three points. And all are true, and have been for quite a few years, despite the roster position in question. While the current problem appears to lie in the construction of an efficient BP, your post touches on the real problem.

[bird]

Maybe I'm being fooled (probably am), but I felt better after listening to what Ryan said during his interview with MLB.com yesterday. Essentially, he said the team has quantity but needs to upgrade the quality, and he was quite clearly referring to pitching. This leads me to think they're focused on perhaps a single target, and this would be an understandable departure from past years when there were lots of holes to fill. For me, I will be disappointed if Ryan fails to find one upgrade that meets or exceeds the Jepsen Standard. Sipp and Bastardo types. My hunch is the internal BP options will be a pleasant surprise to us in 2016, but they need that one high-leverage lefty.

[nicksaviking]

 

Concur.

Those aren't the only options, though.

 

Nope, but Shawn Kelley is now gone as well; the quality options are dwindling quite fast.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Another reliever, Ryan Madson, got 3 years and $22 million from Oakland... and he didn't pitch from 2012-2014. 

He was mentioned!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Impressive job on the projections.

I second this, good job.  (Still think the Clippard one is nuts, though.)

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

He was mentioned!

 

Yeah, somehow when I read this, I managed to just skip an entire paragraph. My bad!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins haven't traditionally made a habit of aggressively attacking the free agent relief market in the past, typically opting for one-year contracts and low-risk fliers. To their credit, they have struck gold on a few occasions through this method with players like Jared Burton and Casey Fien, but that mentality isn't the avenue to a true top-tier relief corps.

True, although interesting to note that both Burton and Fien were signed 4 years ago, in TR's first offseason back as GM.  I think Boyer's modest contributions in 2015 represent the only positive product of this strategy in the 3 offseasons since.  That's not only prevented us from getting a "true top-tier relief corps" it's caused a borderline awful relief corps.

[USAFChief]

I also take exception to describing Burton or Fien as "striking gold."

 

More like "striking adequate."

[Brandon]

Our bullpen is not that bad. It was almost fixed Las t season on the fly. Cotts and Rodney would do the trick cause they won't block anyone comming up. We still have Jepsen, Perkins, Fien, and likely May. that's a good enough bullpen IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

By what measure was it not that bad?

 

WAR?....23rd

ERA......21st

K/9......last

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I second this, good job.  (Still think the Clippard one is nuts, though.)

Yeah, I was looking back at that one a little skeptically. Our rationale at the time was that he's the only real "closer" with a record of durability on the market and traditionally saves have been overvalued, but I think we're seeing that change right now to some extent, with the perceived value of closers and really good relievers (rightfully) started to merge. Something in the O'Day/Soria range is probably more realistic, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him get a four-year deal considering his age. 

 

 

I also take exception to describing Burton or Fien as "striking gold."

More like "striking adequate."

I dunno, it's not like they were star-caliber pitchers but when you find guys on minor-league deals who give you seasons like Burton's 2012 or Fien's 2013 at a minimal cost, that's pretty damn good. 

[mikelink45]

We have the potential failed starters all over the place - Nolasco for short relief, Milone for long relief, and with lucky the youth moves in and Hughes anchors the pen.  Then of course we have the young arms - we do not need to over pay.  The record of relief pitchers have consecutive good years is not good and filling a pen with Cotts type relievers is a step back. 

 

Holland went down or at least slipped and the Royals moved on.  We cannot rely on a reliever who had a good year to have another one so better we create a treadmill of young strong arms. 

 

Take a look at the graph in http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-value-and-consistency-of-pitcher-inconsistency/ and you can see that teams might want to follow the KC model, but it is tough to do.  They are the outlier by a large margin in this 2014 graph.

 

This article on Rivera http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/14/4078568/the-maddening-consistency-of-mo demonstrates that it is really unusual for a relief pitcher to be consistently good over a large number of years.

 

I fear the relief pitcher quick fix. 

[sthpstm]

Why will Nolasco will be good in the bullpen?  It's a bad idea to assume he'd be good in the role.  More importantly, I don't think he'd go for it and I don't think the Twins would push into until late 2016 or 2017.

Sign Sipp, Bastardo or Clippard if he falls to the 3/$24M range.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Our bullpen is not that bad. It was almost fixed Las t season on the fly. Cotts and Rodney would do the trick cause they won't block anyone comming up. We still have Jepsen, Perkins, Fien, and likely May. that's a good enough bullpen IMO.

Almost fixed last season?  Did you watch the games in August in September?  They blew multiple games the week May went back to the rotation.  Perkins was shaky as heck.  Cotts was barely trusted in the 5th or 6th innings of close games.  O'Rourke (vs RHB!) and Graham pitched in critical situations.  This all happened even with Fien and Jepsen pitching as well as they ever have, basically.

[deanlambrecht]

Hey Nick, heads up that mlbtr is now reporting Lowe's contract was only worth $11 million, not the previously-reported $13 million.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/tigers-sign-mark-lowe.html

 

The handbook predicted 2 for 10, so this new info improves your amazing predictive powers!! 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hey Nick, heads up that mlbtr is now reporting Lowe's contract was only worth $11 million, not the previously-reported $13 million.

Nice deal.

 

I mean, obviously we'd all rather find the next Lowe circa 2015, but this is a pretty affordable hedge against that.

[Trevor0333]

I mentioned this in another thread & it requires the Rangers still liking James Shields but a 3 way deal.

 

Twins send Nolasco & Jorge Polanco to the Padres

 

Rangers send Shawn Tolleson to the Twins & Jurickson Profar to Padres

 

Padres send James Shields to Rangers.

 

Twins free up a SP spot, $ and acquire a legit 7/8/9 guy.