Article: Twins Winter Meetings Preview

[Seth Stohs]

At one time, the Winter Meetings were solely for minor league teams and leagues. Then MLB decided to coordinate their meetings at the same time and in the same place. It has been a huge event.

 

This year’s Winter Meetings are in Nashville, Tennessee. They officially start on Monday, though most will arrive on Sunday and start having some discussions. So, what is likely on the Twins agenda for the week? Today, we’ll consider what they’ll look to do.Before we get into what the Twins checklist of needs is this offseason, here are a couple of quick reminders:

 

 

1.) The Winter Meetings host a whole bunch of meetings. That’s what they are for. Minor League leagues and owners will have meetings together. Minor League coordinators may meet together. There are committees. All kinds of meetings. Yes, GMs and agents are there and they meet in between the scheduled meetings, or they have drinks at the bar in the hotel together at the end of the day.

2.) There are going to be a ton of rumors that will come out throughout the week. Probably 95% of them will be based on very little. Team A was talking to GM who has the rights to players C, D, E, and F. So, Team A may be interested in players C, D, E and F. It’s a tough week for fans because of all the rumors. Each one piques your interest and makes you wonder how that player will help the Twins. It’s fun, but it’s hard to know what to believe. At least, until Ken Rosenthal or Jon Heyman call it official.

3.) There is so much going on. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will meet with media, probably also be interviewed on MLB Network or other places. The managers all meet together. There will be college graduates in suits passing out resumes to major league and minor league teams, looking for an opportunity to find a career in baseball. There is a lot going on that has nothing to do with player transactions.

 

There will be moves made by teams during the Winter Meetings, but if the Twins come out of the meetings having not signed or traded for anybody, it doesn’t mean they didn’t accomplish anything. They will likely have a lot of meetings with GMs from other teams, looking for trade partners, laying the groundwork for deals that could happen later. The Twins will have meetings with agents as well. Agents will talk to a lot of teams about their players. Those conversations will be brought back to the players who could decide where they want to play next week, the following week or even into January.

 

So, with all that as the background, let’s develop a checklist for the Twins at the Winter Meetings. What are they areas that they should address during the four or five days that they are in Nashville?

 

 

1) Although they have said that they will not trade Travor Plouffe, Ryan will certainly be asked about his availability by a number of teams. Of course, he’s likely talked with each of those teams already, but during this week, they’ll be able to continue those discussions, maybe even setting some parameters. And who knows, there could be a trade by the end of the week.

2) Bullpen. Terry Ryan said in his interview with Twins Daily for the Offseason GM Handbook that the bullpen would be very high up on his priority list this offseason. Does that mean signing a Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo for three years, or does it mean waiting until a few of those top guys are gone and the second-tier is willing to sign for more reasonable prices. The Twins are certainly going to be having discussions with the agents of some of the better free agent relievers.

3) James Shields rumors seemingly won’t go away. Who knows if there is anything to those rumors, but it would certainly take some creativity. The point of this bullet point is that Terry Ryan and his staff could consider adding a starting pitcher via trade, if it makes sense.

4) The Twins may look to trade Tommy Milone. The assumption is that by himself he wouldn’t land a top-notch prospect. Maybe they could get a couple of B- prospects for him, and that would be OK. Maybe they could package him with a minor leaguer or two and bring back something of relative significance. Right now, candidates for a starting role with the Twins in 2016 include Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Tommy Milone, Rick Nolasco, Taylor Rogers and JO Berrios. I would expect them to deal a starter, and right or wrong, Milone makes the most sense. Milone was tendered arbitration on Wednesday. Casey Fien and Eduardo Nunez were as well, and they could be traded as also.

5) The Twins do need to add an outfielder. As of today, the Twins outfield could include Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Danny Santana is in the picture, as is Oswaldo Arcia. Depending upon Plouffe, Max Kepler could also be an early-season add. If I were the Twins, I wouldn’t sign a big name, high priced outfielder. I can see them adding a Shane Robinson type of outfielder. In other words, a guy who is comfortable playing just once or twice a week. A good defender with speed, who can pinch run when necessary. This is not a high priority, but it should be addressed at some point in the offseason.

6) Rule 5 draft. It’s not the Rule V draft, it’s the Rule 5 draft. The Twins 40-man roster is currently at 40. They could DFA someone to make room so that they could make a pick. They could make a trade before Thursday to reduce the 40-man roster. They could make a pick still. However, it just doesn’t seem real likely, especially since they have the 17^th pick. However, the Twins are usually active in the AAA portion of the Rule 5. Last year they added Greg Peavey and lost Matt Tomshaw.

 

Again, it isn’t a requirement to accomplish all of these during the next week, just sometime in the offseason. Timing is a strategy. The fourth outfielder and some of the bullpen moves could likely wait until early January.

 

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[sane09]

If the Twins need to "DFA someone to make room", who's it gonna be?

Logan Darnell? Pat Dean? JR Graham?

[Seth Stohs]

 

If the Twins need to "DFA someone to make room", who's it gonna be?
Logan Darnell? Pat Dean? JR Graham?

 

Well, it can't be Pat Dean. I wouldn't think they would DFA Graham.

 

My guess is that it would come from a trade. They could DFA those guys, but there's a decent chance both would be claimed. O'Rourke, John Hicks. Those guys are options for DFA as well. 

 

At the same time, Jeremy Nygaard pointed out the other day on Twitter, that they have to decide which is better. Using John Hicks as an example... He is a solid backup, #3 catcher that they can ship up and down from AAA to the big leagues for two years yet. That's probably more valuable on the 40 man roster than anyone they could pick at #17 in the Rule 5. That's kind of what they need to ask themselves.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm still trying to figure out why Dean was added personally.  He would be on my list of guys to trade (not that he'd get much). 

 

That said, I hope TR has three goals in winter meetings:

 

1)  Trade Milone

2)  Trade Ploufe

3)  Pick up a stop gap CF.

[Thrylos]

Add Alex Meyer to the list of potential starters in 2016; he should be ahead of both Rogers and Berrios at this point...

 

The bullpen needs to get fixed and just one LHP will not do it.  They need a LHP and a RHP who can strike people out, let stay at 25% K% or better.  Storen (at 29.4%) had his best season according to several metrics last season.  I'd try to see what it would take to pry him.  As far as lefties go, Bastardo who played most of his career around here, is very frustrating to watch.  He was strike out the side or he can walk every batter he faces depending on the day.  I'd stay away.  There are so many free agents out there with the recent non-tenders that the Twins should be able to find the next Wade Davis or Liam Hendriks (oops) in a lefty version...  Milone or Darnell are not it...

As far as who should go off the 40-man roster first?  Tonkin.  He had 54 MLB innings to prove that his flat FB is hitable in the majors.  Second O'Rourke.  I have no idea why he is there to begin with.   Add 2-3 spots that can be freed up via a trade and you are in good shape.

[Winston Smith]

Without a couple decent moves we're going into next season with a lot of wishing and hoping.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Add Alex Meyer to the list of potential starters in 2016; he should be ahead of both Rogers and Berrios at this point...

 

Ryan told Doogie just two days ago at the press conference that they have Meyer planning his offseason to be a reliever, not that there was much question about that role anyway at this point.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Without a couple decent moves we're going into next season with a lot of wishing and hoping.

 

Just like 29 other teams in baseball...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3) James Shields rumors seemingly won’t go away. Who knows if there is anything to those rumors, but it would certainly take some creativity. The point of this bullet point is that Terry Ryan and his staff could consider adding a starting pitcher via trade, if it makes sense.

Where are these rumors?  MLBTR has never connected Shields to the Twins, at least not since before the Ervin Santana signing last winter:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/james-shields

 

I think most of those "rumors" are fan creativity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, it can't be Pat Dean. I wouldn't think they would DFA Graham.

Actually, I did some research and the Twins could DFA Dean or any of the other recent 40-man additions, theoretically.

 

They are called "Draft-Excluded Players" and the only restriction on them right now is that they can't be outrighted (removed from the 40-man but kept in the org) until 20 days before the season (roughly March 15, 2016).  They can still be released, traded, or even non-tendered (as was the case with the Orioles and Eddie Gamboa in 2013).

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517

 

 

 

Draft-Excluded Player

A "Draft-Excluded Player" is any minor league player eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft whose contract is selected and who is added to an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) between August 15th and the Rule 5 Draft.
 

While a "Draft-Excluded Player" can be non-tendered on 12/2 and released or traded at any time, he cannot be sent to the minors by Optional Assignment beginning with the conclusion of the MLB regular season up until 20 days prior to MLB Opening Day. Also, a "Draft-Excluded Player" can be outrighted to the minors only if Outright Assignment Waivers are requested no later than 2 PM (Eastern) on the 4th day following the final game of the World Series, and if a "Draft-Excluded Player" is not outrighted to the minors prior to the Rule 5 Draft, the player cannot be sent outright to the minors any earlier than 20 days prior to the start of the MLB regular season.

 

Of course, in practice it rarely happens, because why would you protect a player from Rule 5, but then be willing to make him a free agent shortly thereafter?  But there is no rule preventing the Twins from DFA'ing Dean if they need a spot and rank him below the other 39 guys on the roster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2.) There are going to be a ton of rumors that will come out throughout the week. Probably 95% of them will be based on very little. Team A was talking to GM who has the rights to players C, D, E, and F. So, Team A may be interested in players C, D, E and F. It’s a tough week for fans because of all the rumors. Each one piques your interest and makes you wonder how that player will help the Twins. It’s fun, but it’s hard to know what to believe. At least, until Ken Rosenthal or Jon Heyman call it official.

This doesn't really describe the Twins at the winter meetings, historically, does it?  I've never gotten the impression that we are subject to any greater number or degree of rumors during the winter meetings than at any other time (right now, Cotts, Soria, etc.).  In fact, the lack of Twins rumors has seemed tougher for Twins fans (at least this Twins fan ).

 

It would be interesting to go back and look at previous winter meetings and the rumors reporting during that time.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Ryan told Doogie just two days ago at the press conference that they have Meyer planning his offseason to be a reliever, not that there was much question about that role anyway at this point.

Wow, I hadn't heard that.  I think that's a shame.....

[HitInAPinch]

If I'm running the joint, I'd go all in at this point.  Improving the offense without improving the pitching doesn't make sense to me.  The bullpen seems the most wide open.  How much could both Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo cost? 

[DocBauer]

Ryan may be stating that he is not trading Plouffe, but I am betting there will be several conversations had concerning him at the meetings. Why do the Angels just seem to make so much sense to me?

 

Whether the moves take place at the meetings, or the meetings simply provide a jumping off point and premise to negotiate from, this team needs to come up with a quality reliever from both sides of the hill.

 

If Plouffe were to be moved, I would disagree on the type of OF needed. With Rosario, Kepler and Arcia all batting from the left side, I'd say a corner OF who hits from the right would be the better fit. Someone with at least a little bit of pop.

[jorgenswest]

It seems like there have been winter meetings with major leagues as long as I can remember. In fact it used to be more significant prior to free agency. Seems like one winter Bill Veeck set up in public and made a bunch of trades with the White Sox. I can remember stories of Frantic Frank Lane or Trader Lane being very active at the winter meetings. If it ever just a minor league event it must have been long before my time.

[Darius]

Whether or not Plouffe is traded, I think adding an outfielder is a must. There aren't many reliable options there, assuming Buxton and Kepler start in AAA.

 

Aside from that, I don't see TR doing much, outside of a middle reliever.

 

Shields, Santana, Hughes, Gibson, and Duffey would be a very nice opening rotation. Not realistic, IMO, but nice.

[Reider]

At the very least, it would be nice if the Twins could sign a couple of pitchers and an outfielder before spring training.

[tobi0040]

Seth,

 

What do you think the odds are that plouffe gets traded?

 

I think 60% this offseason. 25% in season

 

I think we want an OF of Rosario-buxton-Kepler by June 1. I don't see Sano out there.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth,

What do you think the odds are that plouffe gets traded?

I think 60% this offseason. 25% in season

I think we want an OF of Rosario-buxton-Kepler by June 1. I don't see Sano out there.

 

We may want to see that based on having wanted to see an OF of Rosario, Buxton and Hicks. That was 3 CFs. But most MLB outfields don't have 3 CF. Most are happy to have 2 really good defensive outfielders. So, if they go with Rosario, Buxton and Sano, it probably wouldn't be terrible by any means. But, it's not ideal.

 

So, I do still think there is a reasonable chance Plouffe is traded, but I don't think they're wrong in giving Sano a shot in RF. I think he can do it. A lot of people who have seen him play do.

[Platoon]

Sano can run for a big guy, very well. And he can throw. It just seems a really odd idea, to take a guy and try and teach him to play OF in the majors. Especially since they have options. They have tried it with Santana and Escobar, far more athletic players, with not too much success. I do know one thing, if they put him out there, he's going to have to stay there. Trading Plouffe, or a Park blowup will be the only thing that moves him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I know Sano is quite fast, but in a way that worries me.  People who are that fast and that big don't stop easily, and when they collide with their tall, skinny counterpart in CF, there's a real chance of a nasty injury.  Sano is built like a football player.  Buxton is not.  While I understand that the plan in Sano in RF, I do hope that Terry has other things in mind.

[Brandon]

I think it makes sense to keep Plouffe until 1. Park shows he can hit in MLB and 2. Mauer returns to form. You can never have too much offense.

[Brandon]

I'd be happy if the Twins sign a reliever and back up OF.

[dbminn]

I think the Twins need to sign or trade for better than a backup OF. I believe Plouffe will be traded. That leaves Rosario as the only established OF and he has only one year of experience. What are the odds that one of Rosario, Kepler and Buxton are either not MLB-ready or get injured? 

 

There is no harm having four good OF in the best case. Beats the current risk of ending up with less than three good OF.  

 

Three Winter Meeting Options:

 

Option 1 - Easy

Span - 2 yr/$28M (Fangraphs says 3/$36. At today's prices, still not so bad)

 

Option 2 - Youth

Ozuna - Trade Duffey, Jake Reed and a third player to Miami. (3rd player depends on what you think Ozuna is worth)

 

Option 3 - Never Gonna Happen but would be Fun

Heyward - 9 yr/$207M with a 4-year player option.

 

What if Kepler, Buxton and Rosario all turn out perfectly wonderful? Trade either Ozuna/Span, Rosario or Kepler next year.

 

What if Plouffe isn't traded? Well, just sign Gentry or some other 4th OF and see what happens, I guess.

Edited December 5, 2015 by dbminn

[nicksaviking]

I'd rather sign Chris Young to a cheap 1-2 year deal. The 4th OF really is only needed to hit lefties and Young does that well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd rather sign Chris Young to a cheap 1-2 year deal. The 4th OF really is only needed to hit lefties and Young does that well.

Young already signed with Boston.

[stringer bell]

A fourth OF and what type of player he is depends on Byron Buxton. If he's going to be ready at the start of the season or by Memorial Day, the key thing is to get someone to serve as a defensive replacement for the starting RF (most likely either Sano or Arcia) and sub occasionally for Buck. I like David Lough for that role. 

 

If the Twins want a RH corner OF because their two major offensive departures--Hunter and Hicks--hit lefties well, that is another story. For the season last year, the Twins handled lefties much better than righties. Mauer had modest reverse splits, and almost all of the HR power came from right handed hitters, which should still be the case in 2016, unless Arcia finds and spot and recovers his stroke.

[sane09]

to take a guy and try and teach him to play OF in the majors. Especially since they have options. They have tried it with Santana and Escobar, far more athletic players, with not too much success

Santana playing CF was a success.

Santana playing SS was the disaster!

[tobi0040]

 

I think the Twins need to sign or trade for better than a backup OF. I believe Plouffe will be traded. That leaves Rosario as the only established OF and he has only one year of experience. What are the odds that one of Rosario, Kepler and Buxton are either not MLB-ready or get injured? 

 

There is no harm having four good OF in the best case. Beats the current risk of ending up with less than three good OF.  

 

Three Winter Meeting Options:

 

Option 1 - Easy

Span - 2 yr/$28M (Fangraphs says 3/$36. At today's prices, still not so bad)

 

Option 2 - Youth

Ozuna - Trade Duffey, Jake Reed and a third player to Miami. (3rd player depends on what you think Ozuna is worth)

 

Option 3 - Never Gonna Happen but would be Fun

Heyward - 9 yr/$207M with a 4-year player option.

 

What if Kepler, Buxton and Rosario all turn out perfectly wonderful? Trade either Ozuna/Span, Rosario or Kepler next year.

 

What if Plouffe isn't traded? Well, just sign Gentry or some other 4th OF and see what happens, I guess.

 

If we have no intention of moving Sano to the OF (which I don't think we really do), I would sign Span to a 2 year deal in a heartbeat. 

 

Arcia was a disaster defensively in the OF.  Right now I think we have three young guys, Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler.  One will falter. 

Edited December 8, 2015 by tobi0040

[Boom Boom]

Santana playing CF was a success.

Santana playing SS was the disaster!

Santana playing CF was a fluke.

 

That is, unless you believe that center field to D.San was a security blanket that was worth a .300 point difference in OPS.