Article: Let The Sano-Buxton-Park Era Begin

[Steven Buhr]

The Minnesota Twins held a press conference Wednesday morning to introduce their newest addition to the family, Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. The hope is that Park can approach the level of production he showed in Korea and, if so, join potential stars Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton as cornerstones in a Twins everyday lineup being built to contend for the postseason for years to come.

 

By now, everyone knows how he came to be a member of the Twins.His Korean team posted him, the Twins won the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him, they came to an agreement on a multi-year deal and, on

Wednesday, he and the Twins’ brass spoke to the media about the whole thing.

 

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Park-press-conference.jpg

 

The assembled media asked a lot of good questions. How will Park adjust to facing better pitchers who throw better breaking balls and faster fastballs? How will he adjust to being a full-time designated hitter? What kind of fielder is he, in the event he needs to use his glove more frequently than is currently envisioned? How will he adjust to living and working in the United States?

 

The media got very few good answers to those questions, however.

 

That’s not the fault of Park, GM Terry Ryan or anyone else on that dais, really. The fact is, there are no good answers to most of the questions, yet. Park will need to answer those questions on the field, in the clubhouse and out and about in the greater Twins Territory community.

 

Ryan told the media that he feels his team needs to add offense and that he expects Park to replace Torii Hunter’s offensive production.

 

My goodness, I certainly hope he can do better than that. After all, while Hunter made significant critical contributions to the turnaround of the 2015 Twins, not a lot of those contributions were with his bat. If Park doesn’t exceed Hunter’s 2015 production, he may well be getting acquainted with upstate New York or south central Tennessee at some point.

 

It sounds like expectations are measured, which is good. Everyone with the club has indicated they expect Park to struggle a little bit as he adjusts to major league pitching, but that he is also expected to successfully make those adjustments. I wonder how well those limited expectations will be remembered when the strikeouts come, especially if wins don’t come as quickly for this team as we think they should.

 

I’m looking forward to a full season of Park and Miguel Sano in the lineup. That’s a lot of long-ball potential that wasn’t there on Opening Day, 2015. It’s also a lot of strikeout potential, of course.

 

Ryan was asked if he expects to make more roster moves, obviously alluding to the possibility of trading incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe. His response seemed unequivocal, stating that he did not expect to make additional changes to the regular lineup. “We’re going to go with what we’ve got,” he said. He added, “We’re going to move Sano to the outfield.”

 

Things change, of course. Baseball’s Winter Meetings are coming up and it’s reasonable to expect that Ryan will get some inquiries about the availability of some of his players, including Plouffe. Maybe his unambiguous statements today are just part of a posture he’s taking to send a message to his peers that they should not expect to get Plouffe (or anyone) for peanuts.

 

But, to me, he certainly sounded and looked like a man who believes his everyday lineup is just about set in stone.

The additional power is good. It’s very good. I just don’t think it’s so good that it will, by itself, push the Twins over hump and propel them into the postseason. I believe that this team also needs more hitters who can get on base and contribute some extra-base hits with regularity.

 

For that to happen, Miguel Sano cannot afford a sophomore slump. He needs to not only continue to pepper the outfield bleachers with 400-foot home run balls, he needs to continue adding 30 or 40 doubles and get on base 38% of the time. In short, he needs to be a fixture in the cleanup spot for the Twins that strikes fear into the minds of opposing pitchers and catchers.

 

He needs to be that guy right out of the gate in 2016.

 

Byron Buxton also needs to arrive in 2016. And by “arrive,” I mean he needs to, as Nuke LaLoosh put it, announce his presence with authority.

 

If Buxton and Sano take control of the leadoff and cleanup spots, respectively, on Opening Day and both show the talent they have demonstrated at every minor league level (and that Sano demonstrated in half a season with the Twins this year), it will allow the rest of the lineup to easily fall into place.

• http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015b-1414936-429x600.jpg
• Byron Buxton (Photo: S D Buhr)

Mauer and Dozier become the everyday number 2 and 3 hitters. Plouffe, Park and either Rosario or Arcia (whichever claims the third outfield spot) easily slot into the 5-7 spots, while Escobar and the catcher du jour, Suzuki or Murphy, pull up the rear.

 

In that scenario, the Twins lineup has become much “longer,” to use the buzzword currently in favor that describes a team with dangerous hitters even far down the batting order. It also allows guys like Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe and Rosario to successfully fill roles they are most suited to fill, rather than try to be something they aren't.

 

Yes, I would have defensive concerns with any outfield that includes both Sano and Arcia in the corners. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, but I’m pretty confident that Rosario will be the winner of that battle this spring, so I’m not too concerned about it.

 

But if Buxton can’t be Buxton at the top of that order or if Sano struggles to make consistent hard contact at cleanup, suddenly your “long” lineup isn’t really so long and you’ve got some guys hitting in spots they really aren’t best-suited for.

 

Your leadoff hitter needs to work the count, hit for average, draw walks, find some gaps and cause all sorts of anxiety for pitchers, catchers and defenses on the basepaths.

 

Your cleanup hitter needs to consistently drive in runs. He needs to hit home runs in bunches. He needs to be able to do more than make pitchers pay for mistakes. He needs to hit a pitcher’s best pitch for extra bases. He needs to avoid striking out so often that opposing teams don’t worry about seeing him step into the on-deck circle.

 

If Buxton isn’t an effective leadoff man, someone else has to do that job and there is nobody currently on this roster that you could honestly say, “leadoff is his best spot.” The same is true of Sano at cleanup.

 

Yes, Dozier could lead off. Mauer and Escobar could do it, too. But all three of those players have holes in their offensive games that make them much better suited to hit someplace other than at the top of the Twins’ order.

It’s possible that Park will turn out to be a legitimate cleanup spot alternative to Sano. If so, that’s a bonus. But right now, the best the Twins show me is a few guys who could serve that role if they absolutely had to. That’s not good enough.

 

If you have to slide Dozier and Mauer up a spot in the order and/or do the same with Plouffe and Rosario, not to mention Escobar and your catcher, suddenly that lineup doesn’t look so “long,” after all. You no longer have a lineup set up to challenge the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central Division, much less make a deep postseason run.

 

I know that I’ve totally ignored the pitching situation and, obviously, that’s very important, too. I also am aware that the Twins will be likely be a better team with Buxton in center field every day, regardless of what he does with his bat.

 

But for the Twins to become the team we all want them to be, they need Byron Buxton to be an All-Star level leadoff hitter, they need Sano to be a beast in the cleanup spot and they need those things to happen closer to April than September. They also need Park to quickly make whatever adjustments need to be made to allow him to be a significant contributor to a big league contender.

 

No pressure, guys. Just become great and do it now.

 

(This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

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[sorney]

Sano should be batting 3rd.  Best hitter should ALWAYS see a plate appearance in the 1st inning.

[FunnyPenguin]

No, no, no, no.  Why did we ever waste 24 million on a guy with very little MLB potential. Sure he was good in Korea, but no successful transitions have been made yet, why??

[tobi0040]

I don't like Sano in the OF.  Kepler is 23 and tore up AA, now he is blocked by or will have to supplant Rosario to crack this team next year.  Rosario was a reason for the resurgence last year

 

I will believe Ryan on opening day when Plouffe is at 3B and Sano in LF

[kab21]

 

No, no, no, no.  Why did we ever waste 24 million on a guy with very little MLB potential. Sure he was good in Korea, but no successful transitions have been made yet, why??

So far the KBO is 1/1 in successful transitions with Jung Ho Kang doing very well with the Pirates and Park was a superior hitter in the KBO.  There have also been several pitchers that have done well in majors after coming over. 

 

Part of the reason for the short list is that Korean baseball has really improved in the 2000's.  It is catching up to Japan although it doesn't have nearly the same depth throughout the league.

[gunnarthor]

Every team has question marks - last year we were wondering if Hunter was a good signing, if Hicks could even be a good player and if Mauer could bounce back.  We were terrified of a regression season from Hughes and Suzuki.  We were sure that if we were going to be good it was because Danny Santana and Vargas showed that their rookie seasons weren't flukes.  And we know how that turned out.

 

And we should be ok again this year for the same reason we were ok last year - young players and depth. Last year, Rosario, Escobar, Sano and Duffey picked the team up.  We still have some pretty solid depth that isn't projected (at this time) to be starters on opening day (or possibly even on the opening day roster) - Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Burdi, Meyer etc.

 

The Twins have some really nice talent - probably the most talent since either 06 or 2010 - in their projected lineup.  The season won't go exactly as planned - they never do - but this team should be competing for the playoffs and the AL central next year.  Should be fun.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Sano should be batting 3rd.  Best hitter should ALWAYS see a plate appearance in the 1st inning.

I wouldn't bat Sano third, ever. 

 

Rationale: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

No, no, no, no.  Why did we ever waste 24 million on a guy with very little MLB potential. Sure he was good in Korea, but no successful transitions have been made yet, why??

 

The Twins didn't waste money here. This is a flyer on a 3 M per year deal (discount the posting fee entirely, it's a sunk cost, like Jason Marquis). Basically, you've paid this guy Nick Blackburn money, and if he ends up in AAA, it's not a big deal. Big upside moves for low cost = good work.

[Shane Wahl]

Yeah, at this point I would roll out with Buxton (CF)-Mauer (1B)-Sano (3B)-Arcia (RF)-Dozier (2B)-Rosario (LF)-Park-(DH)-Murphy/Suzuki ©-Esocbar (SS)

 

With Suzuki/Murphy, Santana, Benson (YEAH!!!), and, uh, Nunez on the bench.

 

Trade Plouffe. For the love of God.

 

I cannot accept an Arcia-Rosario-Sano OF. That seems crazy to me. I certainly don't want a "giving up" approach to Arcia because this would amount to a potentially bad OF defense as constructed. Plouffe should go for a LH bat and a good MR, plus some lottery pick. Or three lottery picks.

[clone52]

 

I wouldn't bat Sano third, ever. 

 

Rationale: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

 

The Twins didn't waste money here. This is a flyer on a 3 M per year deal (discount the posting fee entirely, it's a sunk cost, like Jason Marquis). Basically, you've paid this guy Nick Blackburn money, and if he ends up in AAA, it's not a big deal. Big upside moves for low cost = good work.

 

Interesting article.  However, they don't consider that maybe the #4 and #5 guys come up with more runners on than the #3 guy because the old school says bat your best hitter #3.  

 

Here is what I would do if I were the Twins.  It won't happen, but I think it should.

 

Buxton, CF

Dozier, 2B

Park, DH

Sano, RF

Mauer, 1B

Plouffe, 3B

Rosario, LF

Escobar, SS

Suzuki, C

 

The reason I'd do this is that it sounds like the biggest adjustment Park will need to make is seeing more breaking balls.  Why not bat him in front of Sano, where he will see the most possible fastballs.  Plus, this puts Mauer behind Sano, where he is likely to see runners on.  He was a much better hitter with runners on than bases empty.

 

There is no way they start Park in the 3 spot, though.

 

According to that article, the lineup should be this.

Joe Mauer, 1B

Brian Dozier, 2B

Trevor Plouffe, 3B

Miguel Sano, RF

Eduardo Escobar, SS

Eddie Rosario, LF

Park, DH

Buxton, CF

Suzuki, C

 

If Buxton breaks out, swamp him and Mauer or something like that.

[mikelink45]

Mauer should bat 8 or 9 if the lineup is filled with all the sluggers.  I like the idea of the second leadoff hitter - a 9 that is on base as the rotation revolves through the game. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I am a little shocked that people believe Buxton is ready to lead off. Did we not learn anything from putting inexperienced hitters like Hicks and Santana in the lead off spot on opening day? I still see Buxton in the 9 hole on opening day with Dozier leading off.

 

If the kid gets the OBP up and K's down, then maybe you make a move later in the season.

 

I am not even convinced Buxton is your opening day starter. I would place a little less than even money Santana starts the year there.

[jokin]

 

I am a little shocked that people believe Buxton is ready to lead off. Did we not learn anything from putting inexperienced hitters like Hicks and Santana in the lead off spot on opening day? I still see Buxton in the 9 hole on opening day with Dozier leading off.

If the kid gets the OBP up and K's down, then maybe you make a move later in the season.

I am not even convinced Buxton is your opening day starter. I would place a little less than even money Santana starts the year there.

 

You really nailed it with this post. I think the OP has made assumptions regarding Buxton that are not going to play out coming out of ST. Rosario, Santana or a Bargain-Bin FA are the favorites to be the opening day CF- not Buck.

[Ncgo4]

A new era has not begun, it might sometime next year, but it's a long shot.

 

First, Sano is a good bet. But he's coming off a grand total of 80 good games. A fairly good indication, but only that.

 

Second, Park is an OK bet. But he's coming from Korea this makes it a strong iffy at best.

 

Third, Buxton is a long shot at best. He's been unable to demonstrate any ability to hit ML pitching. Plus he's injury prone. Make that a very, very long shot.

 

All of this is compounded by a Twins executive suite that could just do about anything. On the upside, if these three can live up to the Twin's fan's dreams, we could be approaching Nervana.

[stringer bell]

 

A new era has not begun, it might sometime next year, but it's a long shot.

First, Sano is a good bet. But he's coming off a grand total of 80 good games. A fairly good indication, but only that.

Second, Park is an OK bet. But he's coming from Korea this makes it a strong iffy at best.

Third, Buxton is a long shot at best. He's been unable to demonstrate any ability to hit ML pitching. Plus he's injury prone. Make that a very, very long shot.

All of this is compounded by a Twins executive suite that could just do about anything. On the upside, if these three can live up to the Twin's fan's dreams, we could be approaching Nervana.

I think it is pretty close to 50-50 that Buck starts the season in center field with the Twins. Far less than 50-50 that he is the leadoff hitter in Baltimore to start 2016.  I wouldn't be totally surprised if Santana starts the season in center flanked by Rosario and Arcia (or Sano if Plouffe isn't traded).