Article: 2016: Max Kepler's Role

[Steven Buhr]

In 2015, Twins outfield prospect Max Kepler had his long-awaited breakout season, primarily with the Class AA Chattanooga Lookouts. He was the Southern League Player of the Year and, immediately after his Lookouts team won the Southern League Championship, Kepler was on his way to join the Twins for the remainder of the 2015 season.

• Kepler had an injury-plagued season in 2013, not being able to even join the Cedar Rapids Kernels until mid-June due to an arm injury.

• http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Kepler2015a-600x400.jpg
• Max Kepler

In 2014, he made progress with the Fort Myers Miracle, but still wasn’t wowing the supposed “experts.” He had a very good stint in the Arizona Fall League in 2014, however, setting the stage for his outstanding 2015 season.

 

This has led to some conjecture as to what his role might/could/should be in 2016. The topic became the subject of a Twitter exchange I participated in on Monday but making a thoughtful argument on a matter like this in 140 character bytes is all but impossible.

 

Fortunately, I have a blog that has no such limit.

​

I don’t recall how the topic was originally raised, but in essence, I believe the question of Kepler perhaps being utilized as the Twins’ fourth outfielder in 2016 was posed.

 

The immediate reaction, from informed persons with considerable experience and knowledge on such matters, was that Kepler would not and should not open the season with the Twins if he’s not going to be one of the three starting outfielders. In that case, he should begin the year on the farm where he’ll be an everyday player, preparing for a possible mid-season promotion.

 

This is a reasoned and logical view. It’s a view I would have shared a year ago. It’s a view I wouldn’t necessarily criticize the Twins’ front office for taking this spring, either.

 

But I don’t necessarily agree it would be the correct approach in 2016.

 

I don’t think we can rely too much on one very impressive season out of Kepler (or any prospect) and we can’t assume that he’s going to pick up in March right where he left off in September, though he will get an opportunity to impress coaches and the front office during the Twins’ spring training. He may struggle against what passes for big league pitching in the initial spring training games and, if so, the only decision to be made will be whether he opens 2016 in Rochester or back in Chattanooga.

 

Just for the sake of argument, though, let’s assume he opens strong and is successful against the March versions of Major League pitching he faces, but not to the extent that he forces his way into one of the top three outfield spots with the Twins.

 

Now, what do you do?

 

Option one, of course, is that you still send him to the minors where he’ll play every day.

 

Option two is that you bring him north to Minnesota to open the season as the Twins’ fourth outfielder.

• http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Kepler2015d-1414939-474x600.jpg
• Max Kepler

With a prospect of his caliber, conventional wisdom is that you don’t want him rotting on the big league team’s bench. You want him honing his craft in the upper minors by getting daily looks at quality pitching (though, clearly, not MLB-level “quality”).

 

I’m not prepared to just blindly follow conventional wisdom, in this case, however. It may be conventional, but I’m not convinced it’s wise.

 

As things currently stand, the Twins’ starting outfield is likely to be some three-man combination of the following four players: Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. If Trevor Plouffe remains the Twins’ starting third baseman on Opening Day, it’s quite possible that all four of the aforementioned men are with the Twins, making Arcia the likely “fourth outfielder.”

 

But, again, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Plouffe, Rosario or Arcia is not with the organization, Buxton struggles in spring training or the Sano-as-outfielder experiment goes bust.

 

In our “what if” scenario, then, the Twins are left with the choice of adding a replacement level fourth outfielder in the Shane Robinson mold or making Keper that fourth outfielder.

 

If the Twins were still in the midst of a run of 95-loss season futility, Kepler would be farmed out. If you have little hope of competing for the postseason, you give your top prospects all kinds of time to develop in the minors, even if they might make your big league club marginally better. You’re planning and playing for the future, when you can contend.

 

But the Twins of 2016 are no longer rebuilding. To my mind, every roster decision they make coming out of spring training should answer only one question – who gives us the best chance to win games at the MLB level?

 

I simply don’t buy the argument that Kepler’s development would be damaged by being the Twins’ fourth outfielder, as opposed to being a regular in Rochester if – BIG IF – he demonstrates that he is not overwhelmed by big league pitching.

 

Given the likely composition of the Twins’ starting outfield (and the fact that Paul Molitor, not Ron Gardenhire, is the Twins’ manager), Kepler would not rot on the bench. Most starting outfielders get one game off each week, either entirely off or where they serve as the designated hitter. That would potentially give Kepler three starts every week. At worst, he would start twice and pinch hit a time or two.

 

Together, Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer averaged over ten plate appearances per week for the Twins in 2015 and they were not the only reserves who saw time in the Twins outfield.

 

Reynaldo Rodriguez led the Red Wings, playing in 132 of Rochester’s 140 games in 2015. He averaged about 25 plate appearances per week. If you subscribe to the “promote Kepler at mid-season” philosophy, he’s not going to come anywhere close to that number, anyway.

 

If the Twins can find a dozen plate appearances for Kepler each week at the big league level and if he demonstrates he is not overmatched in those opportunities, I would rather he learn to hit MLB pitching in the Major Leagues, not simply continue to show a proficiency for hitting good minor league pitching.

 

But that’s not really the point, anyway.

 

The point is that these Twins should be doing absolutely everything within their power to win major league games. They found out in 2015 just how important every single win is and that a win in September is no more important than a win in April.

• http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Kepler2-600x400.jpg
• Max Kepler, in Arizona Fall League (2014)

For that reason, if the Twins believe that Max Kepler’s presence, whether it’s his defense, his baserunning, his pinch-hitting or his ability to ably fill in as a starting outfielder two or three times a week, is likely to result in more wins over the course of the season than whoever else they might alternatively utilize in that role, then that’s all that really matters. You keep Kepler in April, period, even if that means Kepler doesn’t reach his full potential as a big leaguer for another year.

 

The Twins – and their fans – need to stop thinking like an organization still “waiting until next year.” Next year is now and the Twins need to begin acting like they plan to compete with the Kansas City Royals for dominance of the American League Central Division and do so beginning in 2016.

 

That means you bring your best 25 players to Minnesota with you in April. If that includes Max Kepler (and/or Byron Buxton and/or Jose Berrios), then so be it

 

(All photos above of Max Kepler by S D Buhr)

 

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

Click here to view the article

[USNMCPO]

Well said.

[CCTwinsFan]

The Master Chief beat the Lieutenant Commander with my exact thought!  This article is spot on as far as the attitude the Twins need to have this off season and spring in every decision they make.  I really enjoy your view on thing Twins and especially the insight on the Kernels there in Cedar Rapids that you provide.

[RedBull34]

I would really like to see Arcia get his shot however, and he needs it now.

 

There is of course the service time element to this as well.

[DocBauer]

There really is no good reason for Arcia not to get a shot. There is just way, way too much talent and potential in that young man to dump him or ignore him. However, I state again, with Arcia and Rosario both LH, I feel the Twins would be very smart to pick up a solid, quality RH hitting corner OF to supplement and flesh out the roster. And there are definitely some options out there.

 

And as I stated in the blog version of this, I wouldn't have a problem with Kepler as the "4th OF" in the listed scenario, because, really, he would be more of a regular/semi-regular/platoon type and not a traditional, occasional playing 4th OF. Otherwise, he needs to play daily at Rochester.

[Dr. Evil]

I like your line of reasoning and agree with you. I like the idea of Buxton, Rosario, Sano and Kepler as our outfielders if we don't trade plouffe. I see Arcia as way behind these 4. If Plouffe is traded I see Kepler as more advanced than Arcia right now.

[Oldgoat_MN]

For right handed power the Twins will have Sano, Plouffe (maybe), Dozier, and, as some point, Buxton. Also, our likely utility IF had the second highest OPS on the team.

 

I'm high on Rosario, but he has not been an .800 OPS guy since high A ball. If anything, we maybe could use a LH power bat.

 

And if Park is anything like we all hope he is, Arcia would have to have a Barry Bonds season to have a rival team be concerned about our LH power.

 

Some variables have to break right, but there may be good things afoot.

[gunnarthor]

Kepler will, and should, open the season in AAA.  That will be the case no matter what other changes the Twins make this offseason. 

[Shane Wahl]

Joe Patrick Benson returns to the Twins and becomes the 4th OF!

 

I pretty desperately hope that the starting OF is Rosario-Buxton-Arcia out of the gate. Kepler is the next guy to come up if anything goes wrong with any of them. If he does well for a couple months and the three above him are also doing well, *then* I would call him up and have him be a 4th OF. I think he needs to see more breaking balls before then playing a limited role with the Twins.

[asinnen]

 

There really is no good reason for Arcia not to get a shot. There is just way, way too much talent and potential in that young man to dump him or ignore him. However, I state again, with Arcia and Rosario both LH, I feel the Twins would be very smart to pick up a solid, quality RH hitting corner OF to supplement and flesh out the roster. And there are definitely some options out there.

And as I stated in the blog version of this, I wouldn't have a problem with Kepler as the "4th OF" in the listed scenario, because, really, he would be more of a regular/semi-regular/platoon type and not a traditional, occasional playing 4th OF. Otherwise, he needs to play daily at Rochester.

Arcia has had multiple chances and has failed with each one. He had a decent start and has blunder each opportunity since then. If, and its a big if, he can prove he deserves the opportunity as the 4th/platoon outfielder than by all means give him the shot and let Kepler start out in AAA. But if Kepler is our 4th best outfielder the Twins are doing a disservice to the other 24 guys on the big league roster and the fan base by not bringing him up north.

[SarasotaBill]

You may want Kepler now but that makes him more expensive every year compared waiting a month or two.

I would rather have one more year of Kepler in his prime than two months as the fourth OF as a rookie.

I believe you're overlooking Santana as the CF or 4th OF.

I see Rosario-Santana-Arcia-Sano-maybe 5th defensive OF breaking camp.

I doubt think Ryan wants to trade Plouffe (most probably think he's bluffing about Sano in the OF) and Buxton needs a big Spring to stay. 

[mikelink45]

Forget the expense to the Twins, why do we bother trying to think about saving dollars - MLB has gone crazy - see the Price deal.  $30 Million a year.  He couldn't even win a post season game!  So we are worried about starting the clock on a good player.  If he is ready just keep him and then it is the manager who has to allot the bat spots.

 

I am ready for an all young team (no I have not forgotten Mauer at first) and I think that goes for pitching and outfield.  The infield might be too set, although I would prefer Sano at third so we could do a Rosario, Buxton, Arcia, Kepler foursome in the outfield.

 

Nice article. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Arcia has had multiple chances and has failed with each one. He had a decent start and has blunder each opportunity since then. If, and its a big if, he can prove he deserves the opportunity as the 4th/platoon outfielder than by all means give him the shot and let Kepler start out in AAA. But if Kepler is our 4th best outfielder the Twins are doing a disservice to the other 24 guys on the big league roster and the fan base by not bringing him up north.

 

Wait, are you talking about the same Arcia that has a career OPS of .741 as a 24-year-old and had OPS's of .734, .752, and .718 (with a very small sample size of 65 PAs) during his 22 yo, 23 yo, and 24 yo seasons, respectively? 

 

His only "blunder" at the major league level (besides a couple defensive plays) has been getting injured. Is that what you are talking about? I am a huge believer in Kepler, but given the service-time considerations for him, the fact that he has not played a single game in AAA, and the fact that Arcia is out of options but still has huge upside, I think it would be really stupid to call up Kepler on May 1st, unless (1) Arcia is floundering at the plate, (2) Kepler is tearing AAA a new one, and (3) an OF of Buxton, Sano, and Rosario is not playing really well.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Wait, are you talking about the same Arcia that has a career OPS of .741 as a 24-year-old and had OPS's of .734, .752, and .718 (with a very small sample size of 65 PAs) during his 22 yo, 23 yo, and 24 yo seasons, respectively? 

 

His only "blunder" at the major league level (besides a couple defensive plays) has been getting injured. Is that what you are talking about? I am a huge believer in Kepler, but given the service-time considerations for him, the fact that he has not played a single game in AAA, and the fact that Arcia is out of options but still has huge upside, I think it would be really stupid to call up Kepler on May 1st, unless (1) Arcia is floundering at the plate, (2) Kepler is tearing AAA a new one, and (3) an OF of Buxton, Sano, and Rosario is not playing really well.

 

What he said. 
 

Particularly the service-time consideration aspect. Max Kepler is 22 years old, by delaying until May you likely get an extra season of team control at 28-29, in his prime. The only reason to risk that would be if he makes the team as a starting outfielder – the difference between Kepler and Robinson as 4th OF for two months is not even a win.

 

While I enjoy a lot of the author’s material, he’s dead wrong saying that the Twins need to be laser focused on winning in 2016. This is a Twins team set up to compete for 5-7 years, not one set up to compete only in 2016. We are not the Tigers. We are NOT the Tigers. That’s not to say we need to play the rebuilding game – just that we still have to weigh the benefits now versus the costs in the future. Kepler as 4th OF is too little benefit now and too much potential cost later. The same might be true of Berrios in the rotation too.

 

[kab21]

The problem is that Arcia is out of options and I am not ready to cut him.  I might not be in the Arcia fan club (probably his biggest detractor last season) but he has raw skill that can't be taught.  The kid can flat out hit (with flaws).

 

This also isn't a situation where Kepler followed up a great AA season with an outstanding AAA season and there is no reason to be in the minors.

 

I also think that for a player that has had as little true success in the minors that inconsistent playing time would not help him.

[Guest]

Thanks, all, for taking the time to read the article and sharing your thoughts, even those of you who disagree with me. You are, after all, entitled to your opinion, no matter how wrong it is!

 

[Thrylos]

The fact that the Twins while competing were fine with Kepler being in the minors in September instead of helping the club with the final push, speaks volumes about where he is in their minds.  

The off-season is long and a lot of things might have yet to happen to influence Keplers' position with the team in 2016.  Not the least is him winning a corner OF job over someone like Arcia who is out of options.

 

We don't even know whether he will be a Twins' player on opening day at this point