Article: To Tender Or Not To Tender

[Hrbowski]

I would tender a contract to all but (possibly) Nunez. Some one like TJ Rivera (rule 5), Gregorio Petit, Ramiro Pena, Andy Parrino, Jeff Bianchi, Pete Kozma, or Joaquin Arias could fill his role for cheaper, and probably play pretty similar.

[Thrylos]

When I look at that list, if I was running a competing team would like to ask myself whether any of the teams that made it to the League Championship Series, would have any of those players on their 25 man rosters, in their rotations/pens/bench etc in the post-season.

 

I'd say that nobody would have Milone in their rotation, Fien in their pen in the post-season.  Nunez maybe, but for an NL team...

So, because I want the Twins to behave like Champions, Milone and Fien should be non-tendered and depending on the options they have, the same with Nunez...

 

They can do better than Milone, Fien and Nunez. 

[ken]

 

I'd say that nobody would have Milone in their rotation,  

Milone = JA Happ, and he just signed for 3-$39, so he should have some trade value.

[Thrylos]

 

Milone = JA Happ, and he just signed for 3-$39, so he should have some trade value.

 

Nope.  Happ has a 91-94 mph FB and he is not a junk thrower. 

 

Irrelevant, really.  My question was whether he would make it in the rotation of Mets, Royals, Cubs, Jays in the 2015 post-season.

 

If the answer is no, he should be non-tendered. 

Edited December 2, 2015 by Thrylos

[stringer bell]

Milone is a better pitcher than Happ, 88 mph fastball and all. The World Champions gave 24 starts to Jeremy Guthrie, 18 to Chris Young and nine more to Jason Vargas. I would take Milone over all of them. He has value. Too much to let go for nothing.

[gunnarthor]

Honestly, I'd be ok if they all got arbitration. 

[Thrylos]

 

Milone is a better pitcher than Happ, 88 mph fastball and all. The World Champions gave 24 starts to Jeremy Guthrie, 18 to Chris Young and nine more to Justin Vargas. I would take Milone over all of them. He has value. Too much to let go for nothing.

 

Let me ask this is a different way:

Who do you think will be a better starter for the Twins next season: 

Berrios or Milone?

Duffey or Milone?

 

If the answer is not Milone in both, he should go...

 

[SwainZag]

 

Let me ask this is a different way:

Who do you think will be a better starter for the Twins next season: 

Berrios or Milone?

Duffey or Milone?

 

If the answer is not Milone in both, he should go...

 

So offer him arbitration and then trade him.  He has value.  If the Twins don't tender him I would guarantee he would get a multi year deal from another club.

[Thrylos]

 

So offer him arbitration and then trade him.  He has value.  If the Twins don't tender him I would guarantee he would get a multi year deal from another club.

 

Alright.  Lemme play:

 

What would you trade him for.   Name names and clubs.  To see the value. 

 

The Twins need to address their bullpen big time.  They need a couple of good proven arms, one of each side with close to 30% K%.  Can you get one for him?  

 

If not, it is not worth it.   Low value sometimes is bad value.  Spendthrifting and hording quantity over quality does not win titles.

[ken]

 

Alright.  Lemme play:

 

What would you trade him for.   Name names and clubs.  To see the value. 

 

The Twins need to address their bullpen big time.  They need a couple of good proven arms, one of each side with close to 30% K%.  Can you get one for him?  

 

If not, it is not worth it.   Low value sometimes is bad value.  Spendthrifting and hording quantity over quality does not win titles.

Milone > Jessie Chaves

 

                        ERA+ 2015              ERA+ Career

Milone                 106                               99

Chavez                  96                               87

 

Chavez traded for Liam Hendriks - K/9 of 9.9

 

Even Milone had a k/9 in the bullpen of 18 and a save (okay it was only 1 inning, but..  .

 

No chance they don't tender him.  He has value, but I don't think they are shopping him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well, Fien locked into a roster spot makes it very difficult to add another "7th or 8th inning guy" this winter, so you'd almost certainly see him in those situations again, potentially quite early in 2016, just as he has been used in the past.

 

If you really think he should be exclusively a low-leverage, "6th inning" guy, there's really no sense locking him into a roster spot.  We've seen in the past few years how locking those guys in takes away a lot of flexibility.  I'd rather pay more to sign someone with the potential to be better (another Jepsen type), and if they are all healthy and performing well, not having enough high-leverage innings for them all is a good problem to have.  And/or use the low-leverage spots to audition higher upside call-ups or waiver claims for potentially higher upside duty later -- we now have ~10 guys who are on the 40-man roster but potentially ticketed for AAA and need evaluation opportunities.

 

He's still going to be in leveraged situations.  I don't want him being the primary guy.  The pen needs some lights out guys like say Storen or O'Day (or both).  Fein can still be a very good contributing member in that scenario, but tendering him and expecting him to be that 8th inning guy will be a mistake.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Alright.  Lemme play:

 

What would you trade him for.   Name names and clubs.  To see the value. 

 

The Twins need to address their bullpen big time.  They need a couple of good proven arms, one of each side with close to 30% K%.  Can you get one for him?  

 

If not, it is not worth it.   Low value sometimes is bad value.  Spendthrifting and hording quantity over quality does not win titles.

 

Milone for Storen... OK, throwing that out as a bit of a joke, but given how tough it is to find decent pitchers, Milone will have some value.  It could be in the form of a lottery ticket prospect (I'd think you can do better than a Palka or perhaps get a couple of those) or perhaps a good reliever like Jepsen.  There's plenty of options out there.  I certainly wouldn't just nontender him.

[Thrylos]

 

Milone for Storen... OK, throwing that out as a bit of a joke, but given how tough it is to find decent pitchers, Milone will have some value.  It could be in the form of a lottery ticket prospect (I'd think you can do better than a Palka or perhaps get a couple of those) or perhaps a good reliever like Jepsen.  There's plenty of options out there.  I certainly wouldn't just nontender him.

 

 

That goes to the hoarding part.  Hord mediocre people just in case, instead of solving the real problem. 

 

And Milone will get $7M in arbitration or so. 

 

Would you combine, Milone's, Fien's and Nunez' annual money and add a couple of million and get O'Day and Soria?  (because those are the numbers....)

 

Quality vs. Quantity...

 

 

 

[DaveW]

This is the perfect time to cut bait with mediocre guys like Fien and Nunez and aim higher for their replacements, in Nunez's case it will be 2 mil cheaper or so.

 

I would cut bait with Milone as well, he is 6th starter material for a contending team, you can bring those guys up from AAA or get them for the minimum. Only way I would render Milone a contract is if they already had a handshake deal on the books with a team who would give up ANYTHING for him.

Edited December 2, 2015 by DaveW

[DaveW]

Milone for Storen... OK, throwing that out as a bit of a joke, but given how tough it is to find decent pitchers, Milone will have some value. It could be in the form of a lottery ticket prospect (I'd think you can do better than a Palka or perhaps get a couple of those) or perhaps a good reliever like Jepsen. There's plenty of options out there. I certainly wouldn't just nontender him.

Milone for Papelbon (+5-6 million) would be a more likely trade, and I would take it.

[Thrylos]

 

Milone for Papelbon (+5-6 million) would be a more likely trade, and I would take it.

 

And why the hey would the Nationals want Milone again?

[jimmer]

 

This is why the Twins have such a hard time competing and it's such a surprise and such a struggle when they do; when they are going to pay Plouffe $8 million because his best season was: 244/.307/.435 and calling Eduardo Escobar one of baseballs best shortstops when he hits: .262/.309/.445.

A little OBP would be nice. 

You forgot defense.  Plouffe was worth over 20M in each of the last two seasons.  Easily worth 8M.  Easily.

 

And regardless of what the article said, 2014 was his best year overall year.

Edited December 2, 2015 by jimmer

[Major League Ready]

 

I have a hard time with some of the logic here.  There were calls here to trade for Shields and take on 3/63M but we should none tender Milone at $7M.

                      ERA+ /    FIP
Shields           93  /  4.45
Milone          106  /  4.30

[jorgenswest]

Since his first full season in 2012, Milone has an ERA+ of 99. That is better than either Hughes or Santana over that same time span. He is also younger. He is certainly worth his cost in arbitration.

[USAFChief]

The problem with non tendering Milone is, whether or not he is one of the Twins best five starters in December isn't the issue. He may or may not be. But the question is whether or not he'll be one of the Twins best five AVAILABLE starters for good chunks of 2016.

 

The answer to that is almost surely yes. Teams who plan on five starters getting them through a season are always disappointed. Milone is a capable big league pitcher, and will prove useful. I doubt the Twins add a better starter if they drop Milone.

 

Fien is the opposite...the Twins can and should be adding better arms to the pen.

[DaveW]

 

I have a hard time with some of the logic here.  There were calls here to trade for Shields and take on 3/63M but we should none tender Milone at $7M.

                      ERA+ /    FIP
Shields           93  /  4.45
Milone          106  /  4.30

 

 

Perhaps because Shields in the 4 years prior to last years clear outlier year:

 

233 IP per year

3.17 ERA

3.41 FIP

124 ERA+

8 k/9

2.3 bb/9

 

Half of which were while pitching for a team in the dreaded AL east, all of which were while pitching for a team in the dreaded AL.

 

The "Shields" crowd, which I am a part of, likes the idea of bringing him in because he is a perfect buy low, high upside type guy currently.

 

Milone meanwhile has never hit 200 IP (Only got above 160 IP once) and never has had an ERA+ over 106.

 

So, I would imagine that is just some of the logic there

[DaveW]

 

 

The problem with non tendering Milone is, whether or not he is one of the Twins best five starters in December isn't the issue. He may or may not be. But the question is whether or not he'll be one of the Twins best five AVAILABLE starters for good chunks of 2016.

The answer to that is almost surely yes. Teams who plan on five starters getting them through a season are always disappointed. Milone is a capable big league pitcher, and will prove useful. I doubt the Twins add a better starter if they drop Milone.

Fien is the opposite...the Twins can and should be adding better arms to the pen.

You can find SP depth for a lot less than what it will cost Milone.

Berrios

Gibson

Hughes

Santana

Duffey

May

Nolasco

 

Those are all guys the Twins already have to pitch who are already under contract or cheap, they already have too many (7) pitchers for 5 spots, and that is before we include any other pitchers who may or may not step up (ala Duffey last year). In that list we can add Graham, Meyer, Dean as all guys who could step up as well. Just no point to be committing real money to him.

 

Again, paying a guy like Milone 5-7 million (depending on who you ask) to just sort of be SP depth is a bad use of money IMO, would rather spend that money on an impact arm for the bullpen or use it for some OF help/depth.

Edited December 2, 2015 by DaveW

[stringer bell]

 

The problem with non tendering Milone is, whether or not he is one of the Twins best five starters in December isn't the issue. He may or may not be. But the question is whether or not he'll be one of the Twins best five AVAILABLE starters for good chunks of 2016.

The answer to that is almost surely yes. Teams who plan on five starters getting them through a season are always disappointed. Milone is a capable big league pitcher, and will prove useful. I doubt the Twins add a better starter if they drop Milone.

Fien is the opposite...the Twins can and should be adding better arms to the pen.

Mega-concur!

 

That was my point about the Royals getting more than fifty starts from the likes of Vargas, Guthrie and Young. The Twins don't have one or two or three guys who we can be certain will be better than Milone. Milone is arguably the most consistent and proven starter in the Twins stable.

 

On Fien, he's 32 and best utilized in the sixth and seventh inning. I'd much rather give those innings to Pressly, Alex Meyer or one of the AFL guys.

[DaveW]

 

 Milone is arguably the most consistent and proven starter in the Twins stable.

 

 

Do you really believe this? I sure don't.

 

Taking contracts and everything else out of the equation, I would take the following pitchers over Milone in 2016 100% no doubt about it:

Ervin Santana

Kyle Gibson

Tyler Duffery

Jose Berrios

Trevor May

 

That is 5 guys right there who are better pitchers and have more upside then Milone. At that point, Milone is the 6th option, you don't need to pay real money to a guy like that.

 

Now, factor in two other guys who are under contract:

Phil Hughes- Had a GREAT 2014, personally I think he bounces back, and regardless, he is under contract and deserves a chance at a healthy 2016.

Nolasco- I would take Milone over him, but Nolasco is going nowhere, obviously it would be better if he wasn't here/not on the books, but at this stage he is our 7th option at SP long term in 2016 (or worse)

 

Now if some of those guys get hurt, you then have guys like Alex Meyer, Pat Dean and more ready to potentially step in for spot starts, the bonus is they make the minimum.

 

Giving Milone 7 million dollars to provide depth when he shouldn't be in the opening day rotation is just settling for more mediocrity. If money wasn't an issue, go for it, but I have heard time and time again on this board how the Twins are "payroll deficient", so it seems to be not wise to spend 7 million on a strictly depth guy.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

That was my point about the Royals getting more than fifty starts from the likes of Vargas, Guthrie and Young.

Chris Young made the ML minimum last year. Not sure what that has to do with paying Milone 7 million.

 

Vargas was in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal (basically Phil Hughes/Nolasco type contract) Not sure that that has to do with paying Milone 7 million next year when we don't need to.

 

Jeremy Guthrie might have been the worst SP in baseball last year, he was also in the middle of a long term contract, not sure what that has to do with paying Milone 7 million next year when we don't need to.

 

Chris Young actually is the perfect example of what the Twins could/should do when it comes to a 7th/8th starter, go sign a veteran for the minimum who can step in for some spot starts.

Edited December 2, 2015 by DaveW

[stringer bell]

mlbtraderumors.com has Milone pegged at $4.5M, not $7M. I would submit that what Milone provided to the A's and what he provided to the Twins last year is worth far more than $4.5M. The argument isn't about money, it's about consistency and quality. Milone's worst season ERA+ was a 90 where he stunk it up for the non-contending Twins in 2014. Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco each have at least two seasons where they were worse. Unless he somehow becomes Jamie Moyer, I get that what the Twins got from Milone last year is about as much as they can expect in any year, but his numbers are beyond passable, he is a good pitcher.

 

We don't know if Duffey will come close to duplicating his SSS performance of 2015, we don't know which of the veterans will step up in 2016, we don't know if Berrios is ready. We can assume that at least one of the guys will disappoint or be injured. With so many uncertainties, having a more sure thing (Milone) as the fourth or fifth starter more than makes sense.

[TNTwinsFan]

Milone gets tendered then traded before July deadline. He will probably start the year in the rotation if he's not traded before then. No reason to not keep him. Someone will get hurt and/or off to a slow start. Here's a list of SP quality in the Twins' system (not in order of talent):

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Nolasco

Milone

Duffey

May

Berrios

Meyer

Dean

Rogers

Graham

Darnell

Gonsalves (dare I say he may be on the cusp, al la Berrios 2015?)

 

Point is not all of those guys are SP on a contending team. However, about 10-11 are. It seems like you need about 2 full rotations worth of SP depth to serously compete in a 160 game regular season and potentially another 20 game playoff season. What's great about the Twins' depth is that they actually could trade one or two of those listed above to plug other holes if and when they come up during the season. Also, as mentioned on this thread, not all of those guys have proven they're ready to roll on opening day 2016 in a MLB playoff contending rotation. Give those guys a month or two and see what is needed around late May/early June. Maybe at that time there is a surplus of arms and the Twins get some serious value for one or two of them.

[Major League Ready]

 

Perhaps because Shields in the 4 years prior to last years clear outlier year:

 

233 IP per year

3.17 ERA

3.41 FIP

124 ERA+

8 k/9

2.3 bb/9

 

Half of which were while pitching for a team in the dreaded AL east, all of which were while pitching for a team in the dreaded AL.

 

The "Shields" crowd, which I am a part of, likes the idea of bringing him in because he is a perfect buy low, high upside type guy currently.

 

Milone meanwhile has never hit 200 IP (Only got above 160 IP once) and never has had an ERA+ over 106.

 

So, I would imagine that is just some of the logic there

Your argument makes sense if you ignore two very important considerations.  Shields is about to turn 34 years old.  Therefore, the likelihood of him repeating 2015 numbers or declining is greater than him performing like he did at his best.  Who knows he could be better than 2015 but to bet he will perform to the number you posted in his age 35 and 36 seasons is unlikely.  The last thing we need is another $20+M/yr contract for a mediocre or worst contract.  $58M/yr between Mauer, Santana (age 34-35 seasons), and Shields in 2017 and 2018 is a VERY bad idea.

 

The second is that you can’t buy low on a 34 y/o SP at $21M/yr.  If he rebounds to his absolute best at age 34 you get what you paid for in that season.  What are the odds he does that in his age 35 and 36 seasons?  What you describe as buying low, I would describe as paying market price for the level he played at during his best years and hoping he will defy the odds associated with aging SPs. 

None of this is even the most salient point as to why you don’t non-tender Milone.  He would have value to another team.  Therefore, you tender and offer and trade him if you don’t feel we need to keep him for depth.

[Vanimal46]

I'm in the camp of non-tendering Milone. Whether he's at $4.5 million up to $7 million, the amount is still going to be significant enough where he will be favored over a younger player such as Berrios, Duffey, Meyer, etc. That's been the argument this whole time with Nolasco, Hughes, Santana, etc. that they're making too much money not to be in the rotation. 

In a perfect world he would be in the same role he was last year; in AAA until an injury happens. But the Twins will not operate like that with his pending salary next season.

[DaveW]

 

Your argument makes sense if you ignore two very important considerations.  Shields is about to turn 34 years old.  Therefore, the likelihood of him repeating 2015 numbers or declining is greater than him performing like he did at his best.  Who knows he could be better than 2015 but to bet he will perform to the number you posted in his age 35 and 36 seasons is unlikely.  The last thing we need is another $20+M/yr contract for a mediocre or worst contract.  $58M/yr between Mauer, Santana (age 34-35 seasons), and Shields in 2017 and 2018 is a VERY bad idea.

 

The second is that you can’t buy low on a 34 y/o SP at $21M/yr.  If he rebounds to his absolute best at age 34 you get what you paid for in that season.  What are the odds he does that in his age 35 and 36 seasons?  What you describe as buying low, I would describe as paying market price for the level he played at during his best years and hoping he will defy the odds associated with aging SPs. 

None of this is even the most salient point as to why you don’t non-tender Milone.  He would have value to another team.  Therefore, you tender and offer and trade him if you don’t feel we need to keep him for depth.

You can absolutely buy low on a 34 y/o SP at $21m/yr, you can have the Padres kick in some money to any trade to "soften the blow" or you can convince them to take back a bad contract as part of the trade as well (Nolasco)

 

There is no reason why he can't bounce back to his career norms next year, and then still be pretty effetive in his age 35/36 seasons.