Article: To Tender Or Not To Tender

[Seth Stohs]

By Wednesday night at 11:00 p.m., the Twins – and every other MLB organization – will need to decide whether or not to offer arbitration to their eligible players. The Twins have six players who are eligible for arbitration. Some of the decisions are easy. Some may not be quite so straightforward.

 

Players with three years of MLB service time, but less than six years of MLB service time, are eligible for arbitration. There are also Super-2 arbitration players with nearly three years of service time. Teams can either tender them a contract for 2016, or decline to offer them arbitration, making them a free agent before next week’s Winter Meetings.Below, we’ll take a look at the six arbitration-eligible Twins players and discuss the options. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, we went more in-depth on these players, so pick up a copy for yourelf today.

 

 

TREVOR PLOUFFE

 

The Twins third baseman had the best season of his career in 2015 when he hit .244/.307/.435 with 22 homers and 86 RBI. It was his best, most consistent season of his career. He also was healthy for the first time throughout the season. And, his defense continues to get stronger. The 29-year-old made $4.8 million in 2015 and is in line for a big raise in 2016. Will he remain with the Twins? We shall see. But he has earned the contract and tendering him a contract won't affect his trade value at all.

 

Arbitration Projections:

Twins Daily: $8.0M

MLB Trade Rumors: $7.7M

 

Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 100%

 

 

KEVIN JEPSEN

 

Kevin Jepsen has been a solid, unspectacular, middle reliever since debuting in the big leagues in September of 2008. In 2014 for the Angels, he posted a 2.63 ERA in 74 games (65 innings). He pitched in 46 game for the Rays to start the 2015 season, posting a 2.81 ERA, before being traded to the Twins at the July trade deadline. In 29 games for the Twins, he posted a 1.61 ERA. In 28 innings, he gave up 18 hits, walked seven and struck out 25. He stepped up when Glen Perkins was hurt and recorded 10 saves. After making $3.0 million in 2015, he will get a significant raise for 2016, even more thanks to the saves. He is also a possible candidate for a multi-year contract.

 

Arbitration Projections:

Twins Daily: $6.0M

MLB Trade Rumors: $6.0M

 

Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 100%

 

TOMMY MILONE

 

Milone came to the Twins late in the 2014 season and was hurt. In the offseason, he had a benign tumor removed from his neck. Fully healthy in 2015, he pitched pretty well, posting a 3.92 ERA over 128.2 innings in the big leagues. That said, he also spent a month in Rochester where he was unhittable. The 28-year-old made about $2.8 million in 2014 and will be in line for a raise. Like Plouffe, Milone is a guy who could be traded this offseason.

 

Arbitration Projections:

Twins Daily: $5.5M

MLB Trade Rumors: $4.5M

 

Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 90%

 

 

CASEY FIEN

 

To look at Fien’s 2015 numbers, you could say that it was pretty well in line with his 2013 and 2014 seasons when he was a solid seventh and eighth inning guy for the Twins. However, in 2015, he fought shoulder injuries throughout the season and his performance was quite inconsistent. The 32-year-old came to the Twins on a minor league deal before the 2012 season. His walk rate has decreased each year, but his strikeout rate has dropped from 10.6 to 7.2 to 5.8 over the last three seasons. Some of that can be attributed to the injuries. If healthy, Fien is a solid seventh inning guy.

 

Arbitration Projections:

Twins Daily: $2.5M

MLB Trade Rumors: $2.2M

 

Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 51%

 

 

EDUARDO ESCOBAR

 

Escobar came to the Twins in a July 2012 trade from the White Sox (for Francisco Liriano). He was already with the White Sox as a utility man at age 23. That is something he has since had to overcome. In 2014, he became the starter after Pedro Florimon struggled for six weeks. He responded to playing every day by hitting .275/.315/.406 (.721). Last year, the Twins chose to give the shortstop job to Danny Santana and stick with him. Escobar played all around the diamond, as a utility man, until around the All-Star game. One he took over the job, he was one of baseball’s best shortstops. Overall, he hit .262/.309/.445 (.754) with 31 doubles, four triples and 12 homers while playing solid defense. Escobar should be handed the Twins shortstop job in 2016 and let him run with it. This is his first year of arbitration.

 

Arbitration Projections:

Twins Daily: $2.5M

MLB Trade Rumors: $1.8M

 

Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 100%

 

 

EDUARDO NUNEZ

 

The Twins acquired Nunez from the Yankees before the 2014 season in exchange for LHP Miguel Sulburan. He hit .250 with a .654 OPS in 2014. The Twins offered him arbitration and they agreed at just over $1 million. Nunez played in just 72 games but played well in a utility role. He hit .282/.327/.431 (.758) with four homers. He also played around the diamond and pinch hit. With Escobar the likely starter, and Danny Santana being out of options, Nunez would be a 2^nd utility infielder which makes this decision a little bit more difficult.

 

Arbitration Projections:

Twins Daily: $2.0M

MLB Trade Rumors: $1.8M

 

Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 60%

 

 

So, if you’re the GM of the Twins, what do you do? Which players do you offer arbitration and which do you non-tender? And, more important, why?

 

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[nater79a]

Offer all but Fien. That K/9 rate is trending the wrong way. Injuries causing the inconsistency? I think the frequent injuries are part of the problem. Better options out there through free angency or trade.

[KGB]

Not offering Fien would show a big change of direction for the Twins.  But on a 1 year deal, he will probably end up being a better investment than a 3 year deal for a FA.

[beckmt]

I think you have to tender all 6.  Fien and Plouffe are trade candidates, but you have to have them under contract to trade them.  Fien also is protection against the Twins minor leaguers not being ready to start the season.

[hybridbear]

Could the Twins sign Escobar to a multi-year team friendly deal? Offer him enough that he's willing to take the guaranteed money versus the uncertainty of arbitration, while not over paying? That could then make him more attractive as a trade target.

[Brian Kohler]

 

Could the Twins sign Escobar to a multi-year team friendly deal? Offer him enough that he's willing to take the guaranteed money versus the uncertainty of arbitration, while not over paying? That could then make him more attractive as a trade target.

Who do you replace them with? That seems to be a position we are lacking in depth.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Could the Twins sign Escobar to a multi-year team friendly deal? Offer him enough that he's willing to take the guaranteed money versus the uncertainty of arbitration, while not over paying? That could then make him more attractive as a trade target.

 

I think you go year-to-year with Escobar for at least another year. See where he is after a year as the guy at shortstop. See where Engelb Vielma is at the end of 2016. See where Nick Gordon is. 

 

I do think that Escobar is a decent extension consideration. If the dollars are low enough so that you feel like if he is "just the utility guy" he isn't way overpaid. But I think Escobar is a guy that they will and should want to keep around for awhile. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not offering Fien would show a big change of direction for the Twins.  But on a 1 year deal, he will probably end up being a better investment than a 3 year deal for a FA.

 

I will agree with this. I don't like any of the three-year reliever types. I just don't think they make any sense. If Fien is healthy and popping 93-94 like he was when he was on, that's a very solid 7th inning guy in front of Perkins, Jepsen and probably May.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a big Fien fan, but I think tendering him makes sense. I am ambivalent on Nunez. Other than that, the rest should be tendered.

[kemics]

This is why the Twins have such a hard time competing and it's such a surprise and such a struggle when they do; when they are going to pay Plouffe $8 million because his best season was: 244/.307/.435 and calling Eduardo Escobar one of baseballs best shortstops when he hits: .262/.309/.445.

A little OBP would be nice. 

[DuluthFan]

 

Could the Twins sign Escobar to a multi-year team friendly deal? Offer him enough that he's willing to take the guaranteed money versus the uncertainty of arbitration, while not over paying? That could then make him more attractive as a trade target.

 

Escobar has yet to play a full season at shortstop, so signing him to a multiyear deal is risky. He could take a step backwards when given the starting job. There are also a couple of prospects waiting in the minors for their chances.

 

The uncertainty of arbitration?! There is no uncertainty in arbitration. The team and player exchange numbers. They then have time to come to an agreement before the scheduled hearing, which the Twins are very good at doing. Even if they don't come to an agreement, the arbitration board will choose one of the numbers submitted as the new contract. As long as one team doesn't submit a number out of line with what similar players make, there is no risk of overpaying the arbitration player. Check out the above article. There are projections for what the player will make. Unless the player in question is an MVP candidate, All-Star caliber player, he will not break the bank in arbitration. Remember, the Twins have consistently negotiated settlements before arbitration for years now. Lohse (?) was the last player that the Twins lost an arbitration hearing to.

 

Giving a player a multiyear deal does NOT make him easier to trade or make him a better trade target. The receiving team in the trade would have to agree with a multiyear contract that they did not negotiate. A player working under a year to year contract while under team control is easier to trade since the receiving team can choose to negotiate a number better for their team rather than a number good for the previous team. A year to year player can also be cut with no financial hit for future years. Take Jepson as an example. The Twins traded for him to help last year's team. They can now cut him free or resign him. It's their choice. Had the other team signed Jepson to a longer term deal, the Twins would be stuck paying for him even if they cut him.

 

Arbitration is a good thing. It is like a limited free agency, where there is only one team bidding. You get to deal with the player while not worrying about him signing with another team or having him use the threat of another team's offer to force you to pay more. You get to exchange contract numbers. You will see what the player is looking for. You will get a feel of whether the player is looking to cash out to the max or is willing to negotiate a mutually beneficial contract. Look at the players that are arbitration eligible this year for the Twins. Any or all of them could be cut right now. They could be replaced with minor leaguers or newly signed free agents. The flexibility of allowing players to play year to year under arbitration outweighs signing them to multiyear deals when there is no upside to doing so.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not offering Fien would show a big change of direction for the Twins.  But on a 1 year deal, he will probably end up being a better investment than a 3 year deal for a FA.

Yeah, not offering Fien would signal a change.  No more tolerating Duensing etc. every year because they happen to be under team control.

 

Also, while a 1 year, $2.2 mil contract is less risky than a 3 year deal for a FA, I don't know if Fien offers the upside at this point to really make it a "better investment" from a performance/potential standpoint, which should be the goal of these contending Twins rather than simple risk avoidance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think you have to tender all 6.  Fien and Plouffe are trade candidates, but you have to have them under contract to trade them.  Fien also is protection against the Twins minor leaguers not being ready to start the season.

In what world is Fien a trade candidate?  Certainly not this offseason, probably not even in 2016 barring an unexpected level of performance.  Relievers of his quality occasionally get moved, but for little or no return; they are not trade assets.

 

Also, the Twins minor leaguers (the ones who did not already appear in the 2015 pen) won't be ready to start the 2016 season -- none even appeared in AAA in 2015, much less dominated AA.  The goal shouldn't be temporary "protection" against that likelihood, the goal should be fielding an improved bullpen from day 1 so we're not desperately relying on those minor leaguers figuring it all out by mid-summer, or on the whims of the deadline trade market.

 

Then, if one or more of those minor league arms really does figure it out, they could patch unexpected holes, or elevate our pen from good to great, or free up resources to trade.  But you have to aim high now to achieve those goals, you can't go into 2016 with the same failed bullpen approach of the last few seasons.

[Rosterman]

Overall, not an expense arbitration year. You can afford to offer Nunez, Fien arbitration to offer you current depth. I don't LOVE the idea of Fien, still thing he will be Jared Burton 2.0, and I didn't hear of anyone knocking on the door last summer to obtain him for a stretch run. Nunez is kept in the mix in case you make Santana an outfielder again. Milone would be able to command a comparable salary elsewhere and is a lefty, so he's a keeper. Plouffe isn't ready to depart, but the looming arbitration salary of the upside of $10_ in 2017 is scary. You either trade him NOW or set yourself up to offer him $30+ million to stay with the Twins. Jepsen was a surprise and did more than what anyone expected in 2015. He's a keeper. Escobar, for the second year, showed he should have respect as the shortstop in a system where there isn't a better shortstop...today. Talk about inexpensive!?! The flipside is that as a regular he would become expensive and not able to retain as a utility gy, if that is the role the Twins want him to slip into in the future.

[Brandon]

2 million is not too much for fien. 3.5 to 4 million is where I cut the cord with him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

2 million is not too much for fien. 3.5 to 4 million is where I cut the cord with him.

 

The problem isn't the money, it is the roster spot and settling for "meh" IMO. I just don't see him as elite in any way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The problem isn't the money, it is the roster spot and settling for "meh" IMO. I just don't see him as elite in any way.

Exactly.  If he gets $2.2 mil, he's pretty much locked into a roster spot as long as he doesn't implode like Stauffer.

 

If we're going to lock veterans into bullpen spots, let's at least have them be Jepsen-level pitchers from now on, okay?  If Plans A, B, and C don't work out for some reason and you are really desperate by August, you can almost certainly get another Fien (or another Cotts, or another Duensing) for nothing.

[Halsey Hall]

I'd offer arbitration to all six. The total money isn't that great, and I have a handful of cards to work with.  IMO Poof was overpaid last year, not in anyone else's though, so he should be easy to trade. I'm on the fence with Fien. Did the injuries really hurt him that much last year or is he falling off?  It's hard to say. Poof should bring back a decent bp arm so maybe I wait and see with Fien, or perhaps package him in a trade. I like Nunez, he's an asset so I keep him for sure.  It will be interesting in the next few weeks to see what's shaking. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't have a problem with Fein on the roster for 2016.  I have a problem with Fein being the 7th or 8th inning guy in 2016 for any situation other than a couple of injuries that forced the situation.

Escobar would be an interesting one to consider locking up if the Twins think he can be the starter.  I suspect though that Eduardo and company would likely want to bet on themselves in this scenario too as the arb values for a starting SS will be much higher than that of a utility guy. I wouldn't be against approaching him about a long term deal, but I suspect he likely would want to wait a year too.

I'd probably offer arb to everyone on the list to be honest (though I'd trade Milone for sure and most likely Plouffe as well).  Everyone there has value if used in their proper roles.  Even Nunez as an occasionl spot starter/PH bat could be quite valuable. I just don't want the Twins to be counting on guys like Fein or Nunez for key roles.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't have a problem with Fein on the roster for 2016.  I have a problem with Fein being the 7th or 8th inning guy in 2016 for any situation other than a couple of injuries that forced the situation.

 

I'm ok either way with Fien but I agree with this.  I don't mind a tender to him on one condition: He's seen as one of the bottom guys in the pen and the team still plans to aggressively add better options.

[TNTwinsFan]

With the way the AFL pitchers pitched in the AFL, I think its time to move on from guys like Fien. The Twins have young OF depth that should be given a shot before they put Santana in the OF ever again. You can also probably let Nunez go...especially if Plouffe is not dealt. So keep Plouffe, Jepsen, Escobar for sure. Milone for me is a bit of a "on the bubble" guy. It seems like the Twins have better SP candidates ready to take over not to mention the surplus of Veteran SP arms that will probably soak up most of the SP innings to start the year. Frankly, a SP Rotation of Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, May would be wonderful. But you have to put Hughes in the pen (which may be a good move). Obviously Nolasco is on the outside looking in, but what do you do with him? Realistically, I think we're looking at Milone as a trade candidate (thus, offered arbitration). Rotation of Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone, Nolasco. AAA Rotation will be Berrios, Duffey, Rogers, Meyer, Dean. MLB RP: Perkins, Jepsen, May, Cotts, Fien, O'Rourke, Pressley. Stud RP will stay in the minors until those last four pitchers listed begin to falter in May/June.

Edited December 1, 2015 by TNTwinsFan

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't have a problem with Fein on the roster for 2016.  I have a problem with Fein being the 7th or 8th inning guy in 2016 for any situation other than a couple of injuries that forced the situation.

Well, Fien locked into a roster spot makes it very difficult to add another "7th or 8th inning guy" this winter, so you'd almost certainly see him in those situations again, potentially quite early in 2016, just as he has been used in the past.

 

If you really think he should be exclusively a low-leverage, "6th inning" guy, there's really no sense locking him into a roster spot.  We've seen in the past few years how locking those guys in takes away a lot of flexibility.  I'd rather pay more to sign someone with the potential to be better (another Jepsen type), and if they are all healthy and performing well, not having enough high-leverage innings for them all is a good problem to have.  And/or use the low-leverage spots to audition higher upside call-ups or waiver claims for potentially higher upside duty later -- we now have ~10 guys who are on the 40-man roster but potentially ticketed for AAA and need evaluation opportunities.

[sane09]

 

Not a big Fien fan.

WTF is a Fien fan?

Kidding!

[Andrew]

Do we still have James Beresford? If so, then let Nunez go. James is younger, can play all infield positions (C?), is cheaper, and after he put up solid numbers in AAA last year he should get his chance. However, I'm not sure if his defense is better than Nunez's or worse. I'm sure it's better.

[DocBauer]

 

I will agree with this. I don't like any of the three-year reliever types. I just don't think they make any sense. If Fien is healthy and popping 93-94 like he was when he was on, that's a very solid 7th inning guy in front of Perkins, Jepsen and probably May.

The only problem is, what is the alternative? Is there someone we can get for a 1 or 2 year deal? 

 

Of course, we could also trade for a RP, and I'm open to that as well. FA gives us a player for money, but trade gives us a player for cheaper..probably..possibly with more control, but it also costs a player. But I really believe the bullpen needs that one additional big arm to solidify, (if not dominate). And I don't think you can just sit back and say..."well...sooner or later Burdi or Reed or someone will be up, so whatever." We did that last year with the pen, and we've done it in CF for a couple years.

 

Now, with May or Duffey likely to spend at least part of the year in the pen, (barring injuries), and Tonkin and Pressly as options, you have to wonder if there is even room for Fien. Stil, healthy, he's solid. I'd say there's a reasonable chance the SO numbers climb back up, at least slightly. I've always said I like him as a 6th-7th inning guy. And if it turns out he's superfluous, well, he won't be making an undue amount that would prevent moving/removing him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I will agree with this. I don't like any of the three-year reliever types. I just don't think they make any sense. If Fien is healthy and popping 93-94 like he was when he was on, that's a very solid 7th inning guy in front of Perkins, Jepsen and probably May.

Seth, you qualify May with "probably", Perkins deserves a qualifier too with the way he's finished the past two seasons, and Jepsen himself is only controlled one more year.

 

Yet you want to gamble on all 3 of those guys being in the pen and healthy and effective, AND Fien being healthy and effective in front of them?

 

How does spending ~$15 mil in the FA market on another Jepsen type reliever "not make any sense" for a team in this situation?

 

I know this has come up on other threads, but I still don't get it at all.  It seems like Twins fans have become a little too conditioned to seek a bargain if we're not willing to commit ~$5 mil annually for 3 years to help upgrade a dangerously weak bullpen.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Do we still have James Beresford? If so, then let Nunez go. James is younger, can play all infield positions (C?), is cheaper, and after he put up solid numbers in AAA last year he should get his chance. However, I'm not sure if his defense is better than Nunez's or worse. I'm sure it's better.

 

Beresford is a minor league free agent again.

[Brandon]

Fien has value and we can trade him when the better arms are ready and warrant a trade. We're not there yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fien has value and we can trade him when the better arms are ready and warrant a trade. We're not there yet.

Fien has trade value, just like Burton had trade value, and Duensing, and Cotts, and Swarzak...

 

If Fien had any meaningful trade value, he would be a better pitcher on the level of Jepsen and we wouldn't even be having this debate.

[Winston Smith]

Fien has value and we can trade him when the better arms are ready and warrant a trade. We're not there yet.

Good, Fien can replace Duensing in all our made up trades next year.