Article: Can The Twins Have An Elite Bullpen In 2016?

[Nick Nelson]

When the Kansas City Royals won the World Series earlier this month after coming up just short in 2014, it spawned an army of articles on how every other team could learn from their success and implement aspects of their blueprint.

 

In reality, the foundations of Kansas City's rise to the top have been fairly simple: They get good enough performances from starting pitchers, play roundly excellent defense and consistently execute offensively. Perhaps the defining component of the club, though, has been a phenomenal relief corps that turns virtually every late lead into a victory.Over the last two years, the Royals have gone 138-10 when leading after six frames. There's a certain psychological edge that is gained when you have an array of intimidating power arms at your disposal in the late innings.

 

Many general managers – and Terry Ryan is one of them – will say that starting pitching is at the core of a winning formula. That's true to an extent, but it's becoming a little less true these days with bullpens growing more specialized and prominent. As evidence, here's where the World Champion Royals saw their starting pitchers rank out of 30 MLB clubs across various categories this year:

 

ERA: 22nd

OPS: 21st

WHIP: 25th

K/9: 25th

 

The shutdown bullpen made up for their weakness in the rotation to a rather stunning degree, as the Royals still managed to allow fewer runs than all but two AL teams.

 

The Twins are not likely to have an elite rotation in 2016, but what they lack in top-shelf talent they make up for with quality depth. A group that is solid one-through-five looks like a fairly safe bet. As the Royals have shown, when you combine a good-not-great rotation with a deep and dominant bullpen, you can beat anyone. To me, this is the clearest path to making the Twins a true championship contender in 2016.

 

So just what will it take for Minnesota's bullpen to elevate to that point? They certainly weren't there this year, ranking 10th in the AL in ERA, eighth in WHIP, and dead last in strikeout rate. Last week, Seth looked at how the unit might come together with the pieces that are currently in place.

 

Today, I'll piggyback on that post with a look at some factors that will determine Minnesota's chances of fielding a top-tier bullpen next year.

 

Will Terry Ryan's focus on adding velocity to the bullpen continue?

 

Since Ryan took over the GM reins once again in 2012, his increased emphasis on acquiring hard-throwing pitchers with strikeout stuff has been impossible to ignore, especially when juxtaposed against his previous tenure.

 

In his first offseason back at the helm he traded for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Each of the past few draft classes has included numerous powerful college arms that profile as late-inning relievers. This year, five of the six highest fastball velocities among Twins relievers belonged to Meyer, May, J.R. Graham (acquired by Ryan in the Rule 5 draft last year), Kevin Jepsen (acquired by Ryan at the deadline this year) and Ryan Pressly (acquired by Ryan in the Rule 5 draft two years ago).

 

Last week, the club's 40-man roster juggling included outrighting A.J. Achter, whose upper-80s heater belied his outstanding minor-league results, while adding several raw young arms that can approach triple-digits, including J.T. Chargois, Yorman Landa, Mason Melotakis and Randy Rosario.

 

Up to this point, the approach hasn't really paid off yet, but as long as the front office continues to prioritize these types of players, it will bode well for the bullpen's outlook.

 

Can Glen Perkins return to form?

 

It's probably the biggest question in this equation. For the majority of the last five seasons Perkins has been easily the most reliable and overpowering reliever on the Twins, so seeing him devolve into a hittable mess over the final two months was disheartening to say the least. That's why I ranked his second half as one of the five worst things to happen to the team this year, but as I said in that article, I'm optimistic that Perk will put in the necessary work to get back to his previous standing. He's been too good for too long to let a couple of months of health-related struggles change our overall perception of him.

 

Will the young guns arrive and make an impact?

 

Several of the hard-throwing hurlers acquired in recent drafts were positioned to break through this season, and that might have contributed to Ryan's conservative approach to addressing the bullpen last winter, when his most high-profile addition was Tim Stauffer. In 2014, a number of different minor-leaguers – such as Nick Burdi, Jake Reed and Zack Jones – put themselves on the fast track by posting fantastic numbers while brandishing upper-90s gas.

 

Unfortunately, all of them stalled out this year and failed to take meaningful steps forward. Fortunately, they're all still under 25, and both Burdi and Reed are coming off eye-popping performances in the Arizona Fall League. Add into that mix Meyer, whose transition to relief may be permanent, and you've got four fireballers in the high minors with a very real chance of entering the picture and developing into potent weapons next year.

 

I'll be interested to see whether Jones, who curiously was not among the recent 40-man additions, makes it through the Rule 5 draft next month unclaimed. I suspect he will not.

 

Can Trevor May become Wade Davis Lite?

 

Davis is the key to the entire Royals bullpen. He's arguably the best reliever in the American League, and since he hasn't been the the closer for most of the last two seasons, Ned Yost has had the luxury of deploying him at the most critical junctures possible, matching him up against the opposing lineup's best hitters in extremely high-leverage spots.

 

I'm not saying that May is going to reach the level of Davis, because that's a preposterously high bar, but he has a somewhat similar profile as the former highly regarded prospect who was solid enough as a big-league starter but unleashed a new level of dominance in short relief stints. If he can continue to get sharper as he grows more comfortable in that role, it's not hard to envision May being the best right-handed reliever that the Twins have had since Joe Nathan.

 

Of course, the question is whether the 26-year-old will indeed be used as a reliever or starter next year. Seth wrote last week that he fully expects May to pitch out of the bullpen all year, and given the circumstances, that's hard to argue against.

 

Will the Twins make another big addition?

 

Entering the season with a bullpen anchored by Perkins, Jepsen and May would be respectable, but the strength of Kansas City's game-changing bullpen is in its depth. It's not just that they have guys like Davis and Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera at the top, it's that they can dig deeper and call on guys like Ryan Madson, Franklin Morales and Luke Hochevar, who are as good as the setup men on many opposing clubs.

 

If the Twins truly want a bullpen that sets them apart from the competition, I believe they need to bring on at least one more established premium arm for the late innings, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Perkins. That might mean an aggressive splash in the free agent market or trading for someone like Drew Storen or even Aroldis Chapman. Would Ryan be so bold?

 

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[beckmt]

Storen is interesting, depends on the price.  Best hope is one or two of Meyer, Burdi, Reed, etc put themselves in the bullpen by midseason. 

[Brandon]

The formula you say the Royals have for winning is the same one Terry Ryan deployed in the early 2000s. Bullpen, defense, contact hitting.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The formula you say the Royals have for winning is the same one Terry Ryan deployed in the early 2000s. Bullpen, defense, contact hitting.

 

That's very true... The Twins in those years were good, especially if the starter could get through 7. There was always a strong back end of the bullpen. 

[Rosterman]

Storen would be interesting. He could jsut be a short-term rental with hopes that the flamethrowers do develop in 2016.

 

The starting rotation is near elite. They just had a miserable 2015, yet the rotation ERA dipped nearly a run a game and the starters, as a whole, did stay in the game longer. There is a nice mix of arms there, that could only get better if May/Meyer come thru as starters and Berrios gets the call (this will be his sprng training, but watch the Twins play careful, for some reason, because they don't need to 40-man him). We can complain about Milone and Nolasco, but they can get the job done. Santana can be near elite. It will be Hughes year in 2016.

 

Back to the bullpen. How much do you spend? In Nathan's alst year, I think the bullpen cost was like $24 million, substantially more than the rotation at the time. Do we get specialists (groundball, strikeout). Do we stay with ahrdthrowers? Is there a palce for a Boyer (no!).

 

So, if choosing between O'Rourke and Darnell/Dean, who would you choose (assuming Rogers will be the long man from the elft side).

[h2oface]

Perkins concerns me a ton. Injuries that happen because a man is not in shape are injuries that can be prevented. Nor does he do anything substantial in the off season to combat his aging. Perkins last two seasons are an indicator, not an outlier. Unless he takes his profession seriously, he will become a first half only pitcher, and that half of the season will get shorter and shorter. I am quite disappointed in how cavalier Perkins is about his profession. It takes more than a knowledge of sabr stats to pitch. More physical would be welcome.

 

Storen is not the answer in my book. Not even close. The relievers in the farm could be the quickest answer to a great pen.

[dbminn]

I still think the Twins need to add a late inning LHRP. Otherwise, the youngsters are the best hope for elite bullpen depth. Here's a link to a new MLB article that provides some data to support Nick about bullpen use:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/157383440/starting-pitchers-should-throw-fewer-innings

 

[USAFChief]

Innings from starters has been in decline for about a century. It's nothing new.

 

In the case of the Twins bullpen for upcoming seasons, I'd leave May in the pen, look to add a quality RH arm through FA or trade, find a dependable LOOGY, keep Tonkin and hope, move on from Boyer and Fien, give Meyer a shot out of spring training, convert one or two of Rogers and Dean to reliever in spring training, and aggressively promote the better minor league arms so they are in AA or AAA and better prepared to potentially help during the season.

 

And then I'd tell Molitor to look long and hard at the data which clearly shows sending starters out to face hitters for the third and fourth time is risky, and it's better to get him out of the game a bit early than a bit late. I'd also make sure he is aware that one of the secrets to KC's bullpen success is often letting his bullpen start innings, rather than coming in to clean up messes already in progress.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll be disappointed if May remains in the pen (unless this is his preference).  Perk, Jepsen, and May isn't a bad back of the pen, but not exactly elite either.  I'd think they would need to go out and get a Storen or an O'Day first and then someone else would really need to step it up.

[Platoon]

This could seem off topic, if so I apologize. But it alludes to the dominance of BP's, aka less offense. The emergence of overpowering BP arms has caused me to wonder whether the "working the count" hitting philosophy should be reconsidered. For one reason it hastens the departure of the starter, and gets you into a dominant BP. And for me the most important reason, is you end up taking get me over FB or maybe a hanging slider. Then left with a count in the pitchers favor, you end up swinging at his pitch, not yours. So the question is, does the change in how bull pens are constructed change the way hitting is coached?

[laloesch]

I think it's an incredible waste to keep May in the pen. 

[Thrylos]

Do you think that a guy with a line in the majors like the following is an elite reliever?

 

44 G, 51.1 IP, 65 K, 13 BB, 0.857 WHIP, 1.40 ERA, 11.4 K/9

average 94 mph FB, 88 mph cutter (+ curve and change)

 

Phil Hughes' splits as a reliever when he set up for Rivera with the Yankees...

 

If healthy, I'd flip May with Hughes in the rotation and have Hughes close for the Twins, with Perkins as the LH setup, Jepsen the RH setup, another lefty with mid 90s velocity, another righty with the same (those 2 were non in the 2015 squad, unless Pressly can fill that role) and let the rest fight for a spot in ST...

 

Couple egos might get bruised, but it is about winning and not egos...

Edited November 24, 2015 by Thrylos

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

While I've always sided with moving May back to the rotation, you can't argue with his success in the pen as well as what the Royals have done the past two years. Same goes for Meyer. I hoped for his getting another shot to start, but maybe tinkering with him again next year will lead to even more problems.

 

Great starters and big bats are rare and really expensive. Elite defense and bullpens seem to be "cheaper" avenues teams can address that help win games. Considering the Twins seem to be sacrificing a bit on defense, especially in the outfield, strikeouts from the pen will be really important in 2016.

 

IMO, I'm most worried about Perkins as closer. If we want to emulate the Royals, we have to be honest and concede Perkins struggles mean he is not on the same level as Davis or Holland. My hope would be that one of the prospects can eventually grow into the role with Perkins moving to the lefty setup role.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Innings from starters has been in decline for about a century. It's nothing new.

In the case of the Twins bullpen for upcoming seasons, I'd leave May in the pen, look to add a quality RH arm through FA or trade, find a dependable LOOGY, keep Tonkin and hope, move on from Boyer and Fien, give Meyer a shot out of spring training, convert one or two of Rogers and Dean to reliever in spring training, and aggressively promote the better minor league arms so they are in AA or AAA and better prepared to potentially help during the season.

And then I'd tell Molitor to look long and hard at the data which clearly shows sending starters out to face hitters for the third and fourth time is risky, and it's better to get him out of the game a bit early than a bit late. I'd also make sure he is aware that one of the secrets to KC's bullpen success is often letting his bullpen start innings, rather than coming in to clean up messes already in progress.

 

I am in love with that last paragraph especially......

[DocBauer]

I don't want May in the pen. I don't want Duffey there either. But for 2016, with Berrios on the cusp, barring injury or trade, one of these two guys is going to be spending at least part of the season, if not all of it, in the bullpen.

 

There's been a lot of discussion in the past on here about the Cardinals model of using your best arms; including them in the bullpen before moving back to the rotation later. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. But it's also not enough. Via trade or FA, the Twins need that one additional big arm to anchor the 8th & 9th with Perkins and Jepson. (This also provides insurance against injury or another meltdown) That's 4 out of 7.

 

Tonkin gets next shot. Despite being a yo-yo yet again in '15, his numbers were solid. He's got hard stuff. He needs and deserves his opportunity. Pressly is next in line, and could still make the club, but I would suspect he begins the season at Rochester.

 

Do the Twins make a move for a LHRP? I don't know. Runzler could be big. Darnell, Rogers, Dean and even O'Rourke still could provide the Twins with a lefty or second lefty. It's also possible Milone could be a nice, versatile and experienced swing man.

 

My one big struggle is Fien. Healthy and removed from the end of games, I still like him. I think he's a big bounce back candidate this year. The SO's will climb again, he hardly walks anyone, and could be excellent in the 6th-7z5) innings. The cost shouldn't be prohibitive. Is it prudent to bring him back? Or would he almost be one too many arms?

[HitInAPinch]

I have been somewhat vocal about keeping May in the starting rotation.  But, if Terry Ryan is dedicated to this path, May in the bullpen makes a lot of sense.  I can't really see anything other than a dump of some of those middle of the road [and below] starters would really change my mind.  And I just can't believe Terry would do that.

 

Molitor, like Gardenhire before him, needs to stop running Perkins out at the end of games just to pickup cheap saves.  I'm interested in hearing what Molitor thinks about a bullpen-by-committee idea.

 

I think Perkins and Jepsen are a good start.  Am REALLY hoping a couple of those high-powered MiLB arms step up.

[Dantes929]

 

The formula you say the Royals have for winning is the same one Terry Ryan deployed in the early 2000s. Bullpen, defense, contact hitting.

That is the best post today IMO.    It came down to the final series which the Mets certainly could have won and if they did would we be talking about how flame throwing starting pitching was essential?   If the Jays had won which they certainly could have we would be talking about power.   Fans have criticized the Twins for years for being contact hitters butt the Royals were upper echelon in runs scored despite being lower tier in home runs.  They  were the hardest to strike out yet I don't hear anyone calling for less power and better contact from the Twins.    Royals also won a lot of games with stellar defense.    Just hearing passing mention about that.   .    Just because the Royals made it happen with mediocre starting pitching doesn't mean that should be the new magic formula.   Everyone wants the Jays hitting ability with the Royals plate discipline, the Royals defense and bullpen to go along with the Mets starting pitching.   If you look at the above sentence the Royals are elite in three of the basic building blocks, not just relief corps.

Another fact is that Davis threw his fastball just a little over 50% of the time and averaged 95 mph.   Aren't there a lot of guys that throw harder?     Everyone wants 5 Wade Davis's in their bullpen but there have been flame throwers drafted every year and because of injuries, mechanics, brain power, command, and lack of other pitches there just aren't enough to go around.and never will be for every team to have the bullpen the Royals have.   Worthwhile goal certainly but starting pitching, bullpen, defense, plate discipline and power are the ingredients.    The better you are in one area the lesser you need to be in another.    Every team should strive to be great in all areas but like I said there is only so much to go around.    If the Twins improve their defense again a little bit, have five solid starters, get better and more consistent contact and improve depth in their pen and maintain power I will be happy with 2016.    Elite bullpen is great.  By definition you can't have 30 elite bullpens.   

[Dantes929]

 

I am in love with that last paragraph especially......

Yes, Kelly should definitely have pulled Morris in the 6th inning of game 7.     I am completely kidding and liked that paragraph also but it is still personnel dependent and will always be the most 2nd guessed element in the game.    I agree with the general theory of getting them out sooner if unsure but you will always have these scenarios.      1.  Starter cruising along and manager replaces him in the 6th or 7th,   Reliever fails and manager gets criticized for pulling starter too soon.   2.   Starter cruising along, gets in trouble in the 6th or 7th and manager gets criticized for pulling starter too late.  

 

Like I said it is personnel dependent.     I have memory of many times over the years of bullpen failing because of overwork resulting from short starts from the rotation.    In theory the starter goes 6 innings with the lead and hands it over to Perkins, May and Jepsen.      The personnel equation of that is the starter going 6 with the lead intact and the best closer in baseball in the first half turning into a poor man's Ron Davis in the 2nd half.   The theory was great, the execution fell short.  

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Innings from starters has been in decline for about a century. It's nothing new.

In the case of the Twins bullpen for upcoming seasons, I'd leave May in the pen, look to add a quality RH arm through FA or trade, find a dependable LOOGY, keep Tonkin and hope, move on from Boyer and Fien, give Meyer a shot out of spring training, convert one or two of Rogers and Dean to reliever in spring training, and aggressively promote the better minor league arms so they are in AA or AAA and better prepared to potentially help during the season.

And then I'd tell Molitor to look long and hard at the data which clearly shows sending starters out to face hitters for the third and fourth time is risky, and it's better to get him out of the game a bit early than a bit late. I'd also make sure he is aware that one of the secrets to KC's bullpen success is often letting his bullpen start innings, rather than coming in to clean up messes already in progress.

 

Great point about relievers starting innings. This emphasized throughout the World Series as the Mets were killed by waiting to bring in Familia until there were runners on base. It's a minor, yet obviously overlooked that must play into relivers' mindsets.

[Mike Sixel]

An individual performance will stick in your mind.....but OVER A SEASON, the math is very clear that most managers wait too long to pull the starter. There is a huge penalty for going into inning 7 and beyond in terms of effectiveness. That's actually interesting, because you don't get the chance to do that if you aren't pitching well in innings 1-5......which means it's not about your stuff that day, but about other things.

[TheLeviathan]

I think this bullpen can be alright right now, but it's thin.

 

If they want to be good it's going to take at least one significant investment.  And that should happen, there is plenty of money and some interesting options.

 

Also, if I'm moving anyone to the pen, it's Milone.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

That is the best post today IMO.    It came down to the final series which the Mets certainly could have won and if they did would we be talking about how flame throwing starting pitching was essential?   If the Jays had won which they certainly could have we would be talking about power.  

Sure. Unfortunately, I don't think a rotation full of flame-throwers or a top-tier power-hitting lineup in 2016 is remotely realistic, so that discussion is basically irrelevant. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If healthy, I'd flip May with Hughes in the rotation and have Hughes close for the Twins, with Perkins as the LH setup, Jepsen the RH setup, another lefty with mid 90s velocity, another righty with the same (those 2 were non in the 2015 squad, unless Pressly can fill that role) and let the rest fight for a spot in ST...

That might have been possible too, had we not extended him.  I thought one of the real benefits of Hughes's original 3/24 deal was that it could have played well in pen too, if necessary.  Although that deal was probably accompanied by the promise of a guaranteed starting opportunity for the length of the contract.

 

Hopefully the extension at least bought us some more flexibility in that regard, and hopefully the other starter performances render Hughes unnecessary in the rotation too.

[Vanimal46]

The way the bullpen is currently set up has potential, but it's still a little too risky for my taste. It's fine to have a role open for one of the young guys to step into. It's another thing to count on multiple young guys to come up and produce right away. 

I agree with Leviathan that the Twins need to make a significant investment in another arm. Then I can see this bullpen making big strides for next season.

[tobi0040]

I am not ready to move May to the pen.  He has 25 career starts.  In 16 last year he had a 4.43 ERA and 7.9 k per 9.

 

If he struggles next year maybe move him.  But I still want 200 IP vs. 60 out of the more talented pitchers. 

We still need to sign a reliever. We can't rely on Perkins being healthy and effective all year 3-4 young guys to step up. 

[Dantes929]

 

An individual performance will stick in your mind.....but OVER A SEASON, the math is very clear that most managers wait too long to pull the starter. There is a huge penalty for going into inning 7 and beyond in terms of effectiveness. That's actually interesting, because you don't get the chance to do that if you aren't pitching well in innings 1-5......which means it's not about your stuff that day, but about other things.

I imagine its about a lot of things.   Stamina, mental preparation, batters familiarity, pitch count.    Are you saying in a relatively close game a starting pitcher should never go beyond the 6th inning?  If you were manager would a starter ever get to 200 innings?     Would you in fact have pulled Jack Morris?    I am not saying any of that would be wrong and maybe math dictates a whole different direction in handling pitching staffs.    I can hardly stand the thought of even more pitching changes.    I would hope that if rotation was limited to fewer innings the math would also support relievers going more than one inning or batter.   Your emphasis on season long vs individual game was not lost on me.   Over a season if a starter never goes beyond 6  that is potentially quite a few innings that have to be made up one way or another by relievers and I believe it is possible for a bullpen to fatigue.   Again the personnel will dictate much of this.   Would you ever want to replace Sandy Koufax going strong with Perkins or Boyer just because he has gone 6  innings and overall statistics tell you this is the right move?    Again, not saying you are wrong.  Discussing rather than arguing.

[dxpavelka]

 

The formula you say the Royals have for winning is the same one Terry Ryan deployed in the early 2000s. Bullpen, defense, contact hitting.

That formula was helped immensely by having a multiple time Cy Young award winner in the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not saying never, no, I would never say that...... Sure, there would be times I would leave a starter out there, (many, many factors would go into the decision), but the penalty exists, and it is real. 

 

[spanman2]

 

That's very true... The Twins in those years were good, especially if the starter could get through 7. There was always a strong back end of the bullpen. 

Agree 100%...I think in today's world of pitching if you get through 6 as a starter you have done your job.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Would anyone be interested in scooping up Timmy on a 1-year deal? Could he add some value to the pen or is he cooked?