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Article: Bullpen Strategy: What Would You Do?


Seth Stohs

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What should the Twins strategy be for their bullpen in 2016?

 

All offseason, the Twins have made it clear that they find “The Bullpen” to be a huge priority for improvement this offseason. While the Twins starting staff did improve its numbers significantly in 2015, the bullpen had its ups and downs.

 

When Parker asked Terry Ryan if the bullpen was his highest priority this offseason (for the Offseason Handbook), the Twins GM said, “It’s pretty close up there. Pitching is always the most prioritized area of any team.”But how big of a priority should adding arms be this offseason? I think it is important to look at the current state of the Twins bullpen. Do the Twins need one arm? Two arms? Should they go after someone who will cost three years and $20+ million, or should they strategically add a veteran on a one-year deal?

 

THE CLOSERS

 

The last couple of seasons, Glen Perkins has been unbeatable in the first half and struggled in the second half. He is a three-time All Star and has closed out the midsummer classic for the American League the last two years. Despite his second half struggles, he is the closer, and he will need to find a way to be better throug the entire season. He’s signed through 2017 with an option for 2018.

 

Kevin Jepsen hadn’t been a closer with the Angels or with the Rays, but with Perkins' injury situation in thesecond half, he did a tremendous job in the role. He is in his final year of arbitration and showed he is very capable of being a closer. It’s a nice “problem” to have two guys capable of the role.

 

FOR STARTERS…

 

Ervin Santana. Phil Hughes. Kyle Gibson. Tyler Duffey. Tommy Milone. Trevor May. Ricky Nolasco. JO Berrios.

 

Five of those eight pitchers will be starters for the Twins on Opening Day. Of course, a couple could be trade candidates this offseason as well. Milone’s name is likely to be heard heavily in the rumor mills, and Nolasco is a name that the Twins would likely prefer to trade. Trevor May was told when he moved to the bullpen halfway through the 2015 season that he would be given a shot to return to the starting rotation in 2016. We shall see.

 

In my opinion, the first four on the list (Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey) should be written in ink. If Milone is still around, he will likely be in the rotation. Berrios will not be brought up to pitch out of the bullpen, but Milone and Nolasco could be bullpen guys.

 

I fully expect that Trevor May will pitch in the bullpen all season and Nolasco could be the long man.

 

BEEN THERE

 

Casey Fien is arbitration eligible and could make up to $2.25 million in 2016 if the Twins choose to tender him a contract. Though he was quite solid in 2013 and 2014, he fought injuries in 2015 and wasn’t able to consistently get batters out in the seventh or eighth innings.

 

Michael Tonkin is out of options. For the last three years, he has become a frequent flyer between Rochester and Minneapolis. He has pretty well dominated the International League with a 94 mph fastball. However, he has not been able to get into a groove in the big leagues. Frankly, he hasn’t been given consistent enough work with the Twins to really know what they have. So, what should the Twins do with Tonkin in 2016? Twinkie Town’s Andrew Bryzgornia writes that it’s time to give Tonkin a shot.

 

Ryan Pressly was pitching pretty well when he got hurt. The former Rule 5 pick has an option remaining, but he showed great improvement after being given some time in AAA. 2014’s Rule 5 pick JR Graham is likely headed to Rochester to start the 2016 season. He showed the fastball, but showed he has much room for improvement and consistency. The Twins got through 2015 with him and can now let him get some final development in at AAA.

 

Alex Meyer had a frustrating 2015 season in AAA. He was moved to the bullpen and struggled there. He got into two games with the Twins and that didn’t go so well. But the talent is still there and at some point, he could be ready. And, when he is ready, he could be a dominant reliever. While Meyer struggled, AJ Achter continued his domination of AAA. Though he had two or three clunkers in the big leagues, he showed that he can pitch at the level. Each pitcher has two options remaining.

 

Lefty Ryan O’Rourke came to the Twins after the All-Star break and showed that he can get left-handed big league hitters out as well, as he proved in the minor leagues. He also showed that he could struggle against right-handers. Logan Darnell had a tremendous August in Rochester, pitching as well as he ever has. He earned his promotion in September and could have really helped the team in long-relief if not for coming down with pneumonia. Pat Dean’s surprising and impressive 2015 season in Rochester makes him a candidate as a lefty reliever as well.

 

SOON AND VERY SOON

 

And then there are the power arms that the team has been drafting the last two or three seasons. Many, myself included, believed that we would see a couple of them in 2015. Instead, a couple of them got humbled in 2015. However, it is possible that several of these pitchers will surface with the Twins in 2016.

 

Nick Burdi and JT Chargois can touch 100 mph with their fastballs and each has a very good slider. Chargois also has a good changeup at times. Jake Reed, like Burdi, was drafted in 2014. He and Burdi have combined to give up 0 runs in about 20 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Reed sits 94-95 and can touch 97. Despite his second-half struggles, hard-throwing Zack Jones may not be all that far from big league ready too.

 

From the left side, the Twins could push Taylor Rogers to the bullpen. He dominated left-handed bats at AAA in 2015 and is a more-consistent change up from being a capable big league starter. He is very close. Meanwhile, high-upside lefty relievers Corey Williams and Mason Melotakis are coming back from Tommy John surgery. Williams pitched half of the 2015 season and got to AA. Melotakis missed the entire 2015 season and should get back on the mound before midseason.

 

As much as this group has the potential to dominate out of the bullpen, they haven’t done it yet, and there is no guarantee that they will. There is a belief that several of them will be big-time relievers, but time will tell. Patience will be necessary.

 

HOW COULD THE BULLPEN LOOK?

 

For this exercise, I’ll assume that the Twins non-tender Casey Fien and trade Tommy Milone for minor leaguers. I’ll assume that Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Tyler Duffey will be in the rotation. I will assume that JO Berrios begins the season in the AAA rotation (though he could be up soon). In fact, for this purpose, I’ll say that Ricky Nolasco gets to start the season as the fifth starter and will get 4-6 weeks of time before Berrios takes a spot. Let’s also say that the Twins would much prefer to start the season with a 12-man pitching staff, meaning seven pitchers in the bullpen.

 

Closer: Glen Perkins

RH Set-up: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly

LH Set-up: Logan Darnell OR Ryan O’Rourke

Long-Relief: Logan Darnell OR Taylor Rogers OR AJ Achter OR JR Graham

 

Though there are some moving parts and there will be some position battles in spring training, there are three or four names that can probably be placed in ink. That means there are four spots open in spring training for any number of pitchers.

 

Waiting in the (Rochester Red) Wings: Logan Darnell, Ryan O’Rourke, Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, AJ Achter, JR Graham, Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Jake Reed, Corey Williams, Zack Jones, Mason Melotakis. These are all guys who could surface by the end of 2016.

 

RECOMMENDATION

 

Because there are so many options, many with potentially big upsides, coming up in the near future, I wouldn’t recommend signing anyone to more than a two-year contract. And frankly, tw- year contracts should only be on the table if it’s at a discount of some sort. In other words, Darren O’Day is expected to sign for four years and $32-36 million. If he were willing to sign with the Twins for two years and $12 million, that’s just fine. The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky.

 

I would look for one left-handed, veteran reliever to replace Brian Duensing. That could be Neal Cotts, or another reliever willing to sign for one year (or available in a trade). In the Offseason Handbook, we suggested a Matt Thornton for about $4 million. Other names include Randy Choate or Manny Parra. With Perkins and Thornton (or similar), they could go with a less experienced lefty like O’Rourke or Darnell or Rogers working a role in the bullpen as well. Who knows? Maybe Dan Runzler, signed as a minor league free agent recently, could surprise and be an option.

 

If the Twins had any confidence that Blaine Boyer could pitch as well as he did in 2015, which is unlikely but you never know, he would make sense to bring back. I think adding one right-handed veteran to a one-year contract would also be good. Again, a trade for such a player wouldn’t be bad either. Maybe guys like Mark Lowe or Matt Albers could fit that mold as well.

 

 

How does this look?

 

Closer: Glen Perkins

RH Relievers: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin

LH Relievers: Matt Thornton, (Ryan O’Rourke or Logan Darnell or Taylor Rogers)

Long relief: Logan Darnell or Taylor Rogers or AJ Achter or Ryan Pressly or JR Graham or Alex Meyer or Ricky Nolasco

 

The Twins could also chose to go with eight bullpen arms, making room for one more from the long relief category. As we should expect, the Twins should also add a few minor league free agent relievers. They have had good luck with that route in the past as well.

 

Sure, it would be more of a splash to go out and sign Tyler Clippard, Darren O’Day, Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp, but that isn’t likely to happen, and it would be far more risky to sign one of them than to sign the one-year types.

 

So, what do you think? What would your strategy be for helping out the Twins bullpen in 2016 and beyond?

 

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Quite a few arms that the Twins have to make longterm decisions on (like, keep them on the 40-man after spring training) - Achter, Darnell, O'Rourke, Tonkin. They still need a hard thrower. I would like to see them concentrate on guys that CAN get a ground ball or GET A STRIKEOUT. Like Mauer at first, I almsot wish Perkins wasn't locked in as the closer and was the lefty set-up man and the Twins would actually get a $10ish million closer added to the staff, for at least a season. Graham can go back to the minors. Pressley can, too, I believe. Rogers could egt a shot. Dean maybe needs to be protected on the 40-man if you can, but doubt if he'll see any real action with the Twins. Too abd the Twins seems stuck with Noalsco, Milone. I do hope Duffey starts. And May will be a solid arm in the bullpen for now. Meyer nees a BIG comeback. Fien should be the odd man out and, no, we don't need Boyer abck..for all the goodness of his story and all. Either go big or stay within your system and hope Jones, Reed, Burdi, Chargolis ALL pan out and give you the Nasty Boys 2016 and Beyond!

 

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I am ok with May in the pen, but if we would sign an above average bullpen arm(Not Stauffer type lol) I hope he moves back to starter...............I am a believer in Pressly, and I feel Tonkin hasnt been given a good shot, give him 3 months and see where he is as a Twin reliever.......So my bullpen would be.......1 Perkins, 2 Jepsen(co-closers), 3 Pressly,4  Tonkin,5  Rogers, 6 May or new FA pitcher preferably a lefty.........7 Meyer and if we have a 13 man pitching staff, 8 Nolasco.

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With the rotation looking solid but unspectacular, Perkins proving less than durable, Jepsen only controlled for 1 more year, and none of the prospects looking like locks for the 1st half, I don't think the Twins should be afraid to sign a consistent FA reliever. Soria for 3 years would probably be a good investment. They could afford to give up something similar to what the Tigers just paid to get K-Rod in a trade, too. And I like the Thornton idea or somebody similar. They should try to have the depth to send out shut-down guys in innings 6-9 from day one.

 

Trade 2 starters and get May and Berrios in the rotation. They probably won't do worse than any of the locks, but I like their potential to do better.

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I'm against signing one of the free agent to a 3 or 4 year contact.  We done it the last couple years with the starting pitching and that hasn't worked out.  With the surplus of back of the rotation starters and Plouffe, they have trade options.  I think a better opiton would be to start converting some of the starters or make a trade to fill out the bullpen.

 

We have a lot of arms that should be ready soon in the minors, so let's not lock up veterans to long-term deals.  You can alway make trades during the season if you need to pick up a player.

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May needs to be in the rotation.  I'd trade Milone for a reliever or a prospect.  Darren O'Day would be on my list, and getting Drew Storen for a reasonable price would be another one.  The pen that you have laid out is pretty much last year's pen.  Not a fan given how bad it was.  You add O'Day and Storen and you have a pretty formidable back end of the pen.  In AAA you have Berrios and Rogers or maybe even Meyer who can come up if someone struggles or is hurt.  There's nice depth there.  No reason to keep Milone around.  I'd probably DFA Nolasco if I couldn't find any trade for him.

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Rogers was sent to the AFL to continue to start and stretch out those innings even further (to 200). He is going to be starting in Rochester.

 

It's interesting though. When he was told he was going to the AFL, he was told he would be pitching out of the bullpen. In part due to where he was already at innings-wise. Now he's at 199 innings and could pitch in tomorrow's championship game.

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Let's not forget that May was one of the better starters last season. He actually was quite good (despite a couple clunkers that people like to mention often).

200 "good" innings from May is much, much more valuable than 60 "great" innings out of the pen. Same is true of any pitcher, of course.

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Should they go after someone who will cost three years and $20+ million, or should they strategically add a veteran on a one-year deal?

It is disingenuous to suggest those are their only two options on the free agent market.  Non-closers have never before gotten a $20 million guarantee in free agency (searching back to the 2010-2011 offseason using MLBTR's FA Tracker), with the possible two exceptions of League and Broxton who got $22.5 and $21 million respectively a few years ago, although both had recent closer experience and were deployed (albeit briefly) as closers by their signing clubs, and maybe Miller last winter although he was crazy dominant and signed to replace Robertson as the Yankees closer.

 

$20+ million is nowhere near the standard for multi-year FA set up men.  MLBTR predicts only O'Day will get that much in this year's market.  Plenty of guys like Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley, to name a few, will almost certainly fall well short of that mark.  MLBTR actually predicts Ryan Madson to land with the Twins for 3/15.

 

 

Because there are so many options, many with potentially big upsides, coming up in the near future, I wouldn’t recommend signing anyone to more than a two-year contract. And frankly, tw- year contracts should only be on the table if it’s at a discount of some sort. In other words, Darren O’Day is expected to sign for four years and $32-36 million. If he were willing to sign with the Twins for two years and $12 million, that’s just fine. The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky.

That was the argument last year too, and arguably none of the big upside options are any closer to being viable MLB relievers a year later.

 

"The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky" has yet to be borne out by any data.  When the market is primarily based on deals around 3/15, it's almost impossible for them to be "quite risky."

Edited by spycake
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I think Duensing should get another year in the Twins bullpen.  I think he is due for a healthy year in 2016 and will be better than most experienced relievers we could sign to a one or two year contract. He'll be worth the money.    :)

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Another overlooked factor is that Jepsen is a free agent after the 2016 season.  A free agent signing this winter would simply overlap Jepsen for a year while our internal options are still trying to reach MLB.  If one emerges to claim a spot by the end of the year, they could slot into Jepsen's spot for 2017.

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I agree with Seth that signing relievers to 3 year contracts is not something I'd like to do. However, there needs to be some help brought in outside of the organization. Tony Sipp would be a guy I'd like the Twins to target as the LH out of the pen. I'd also like to find a way to acquire Storen like diehard mentioned before. That would give the Twins 3 great options for the 7-8-9 innings, and all 3 have closing experience in case if Perkins falters again. 

If some of the young guys get hot, then great, they can be rotated into the pen when they're ready. If we're coming into the season relying on Tonkin, Achter, or Darnell to step up, it's going to be another long season of a shaky at best bullpen. 

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Let's not forget that May was one of the better starters last season. He actually was quite good (despite a couple clunkers that people like to mention often). 200 "good" innings from May is much, much more valuable than 60 "great" innings out of the pen. Same is true of any pitcher, of course.

 

I cannot like this enough.  May was our best starting pitcher when he got demoted, and that was in spite of those clunkers.  The guy has a chance to be a 1/2 type pitcher.  They need to let that develop, not waste it in the pen.

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It is disingenuous to suggest those are their only two options on the free agent market.  Non-closers have never before gotten a $20 million guarantee in free agency (searching back to the 2010-2011 offseason using MLBTR's FA Tracker), with the possible two exceptions of League and Broxton who got $22.5 and $21 million respectively a few years ago, although both had recent closer experience and were deployed (albeit briefly) as closers by their signing clubs, and maybe Miller last winter although he was crazy dominant and signed to replace Robertson as the Yankees closer.

 

$20+ million is nowhere near the standard for multi-year FA set up men.  MLBTR predicts only O'Day will get that much in this year's market.  Plenty of guys like Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley, to name a few, will almost certainly fall well short of that mark.  MLBTR actually predicts Ryan Madson to land with the Twins for 3/15.

 

 

The idea being two options (of course there is room in between):

1.) multi-year, big dollar free agent relievers (O'Day, Clippard, Sipp, Bastardo, Soria types).

2.) one-year deals (usually can find some good ones late in the free agent period, in January rather than in November)

 

Madson for 3/15 would fall closer to category 1 than category 2, for me, even though $5 million isn't too bad. Then again, he's going to be 35 in 2016. He had a great year for the Royals in 2015 after not pitching in the big leagues since 2011). Three years in between. And, the Royals signed him to a minor league contract. Good for Madson to turn it into a potential multi-year deal.

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In case you can't tell from my above posts, to answer the question in the article title, I would recommend a FA signing. :)

 

Here is what MLBTR predicts for setup men among their top 50 FA:

 

O'Day 3/22.5

Soria 3/18

Clippard 3/18

Bastardo 3/15

Madson 3/15

Kelley 2/12

Sipp 3/12

 

And Mark Lowe makes their "honorable mention" list without a predicted contract, presumably around Kelley/Sipp level.

 

I would take almost any of those guys on those deals (although I'm not crazy about Clippard or Soria).

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Another overlooked factor is that Jepsen is a free agent after the 2016 season.  A free agent signing this winter would simply overlap Jepsen for a year while our internal options are still trying to reach MLB.  If one emerges to claim a spot by the end of the year, they could slot into Jepsen's spot for 2017.

 

It's probably a different article and a different topic, but Jepsen certainly is a long-term extension candidate this offseason... though he is now one year from a potential big pay day in free agency, though he also may want to take some long-term guaranteed money now.

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The idea being two options (of course there is room in between):

1.) multi-year, big dollar free agent relievers (O'Day, Clippard, Sipp, Bastardo, Soria types).

2.) one-year deals (usually can find some good ones late in the free agent period, in January rather than in November)

 

Madson for 3/15 would fall closer to category 1 than category 2, for me, even though $5 million isn't too bad. Then again, he's going to be 35 in 2016. He had a great year for the Royals in 2015 after not pitching in the big leagues since 2011). Three years in between. And, the Royals signed him to a minor league contract. Good for Madson to turn it into a potential multi-year deal.

Option #1 as you described it in your article ("someone who will cost three years and $20+ million") is right now basically limited to O'Day.  He really shouldn't get an option all his own!  I'd suggest changing the article wording, dropping your threshold to $15 mil if this is how you really feel (and perhaps changing the word "will" to "could" as several notable FA relievers are currently predicted to land closer to $12 mil).  Otherwise it seems like you are presenting readers with a false choice.

 

Madson wouldn't be my choice #1 either, just thought MLBTR's prediction for him was notable.  See my post above for a larger list of options.

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Here was the multi-year FA setup market last winter:

 

Gregerson 3/18.5

Uehara 2/18 (was actually a closer)

Duke 3/15

Romo 2/15 (had lost his closer's job in SF)

K-Rod 2/13 (closer but had spent a few years in setup roles)

Neshek 2/12.5

Hochevar 2/10

Grilli 2/8

 

So MLBTR's predictions for this year seem in line with past results.

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Option #1 as you described it in your article ("someone who will cost three years and $20+ million") is right now basically limited to O'Day.  He really shouldn't get an option all his own!  I'd suggest changing the article wording, dropping your threshold to $15 mil if this is how you really feel (and perhaps changing the word "will" to "could" as several notable FA relievers are currently predicted to land closer to $12 mil).  Otherwise it seems like you are presenting readers with a false choice.

 

Madson wouldn't be my choice #1 either, just thought MLBTR's prediction for him was notable.  See my post above for a larger list of options.

 

Well, in the TD Offseason Handbook, we had O'Day, Clippard, Sipp, and Bastardo all at 3+/20+. Maybe I should have gone with $15M instead of $20M. OK.

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Well, in the TD Offseason Handbook, we had O'Day, Clippard, Sipp, and Bastardo all at 3+/20+. Maybe I should have gone with $15M instead of $20M. OK.

Thanks, I didn't know the Handbook predictions.  They seem high, given past history -- 4 setup guys in one offseason getting $20+ mil, when arguably 0-2 setup guys have reached that total in the history of free agency?  (I know Linebrink got $19 mil in a terrible deal by the White Sox, can't think of any others that pre-date the MLBTR FA Tracker starting in 2010.)  Also there are at least 4 more guys who will likely get multi-year deals this winter for less than that, so $20+ mil is hardly a requirement for the Twins to venture down that road even if those 4 command those prices.

 

Not trying to be picky (although I know that I am :) ), I just think there are very interesting names in the multi-year FA reliever market that I'd like to see discussed and debated, and over-estimating their cost tends to preclude that discussion.  The only one you mention in the article is O'Day, for example, when I think the entire group of eight I listed above is worthy of discussion.

 

EDIT: I do see you also mention Mark Lowe, albeit very briefly and presumably on the assumption he'd sign a one-year deal.

Edited by spycake
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It's probably a different article and a different topic, but Jepsen certainly is a long-term extension candidate this offseason... though he is now one year from a potential big pay day in free agency, though he also may want to take some long-term guaranteed money now.

If you look at my posts above (last year's FA setup contracts, and this year's predictions), Jepsen almost certainly wouldn't get more than 3/15 on the open market.  If they decide to re-sign him next year, that's fine, but you're not going to get a meaningful discount on that already modest contract by extending him a year in advance.

 

 

Guys who were quality relievers last year generally don't settle for one-year contracts, so the Twins have a unique opportunity to view Jepsen's final year of control as that special case, while still adding another quality FA arm this winter.  Giving them the flexibility of another year to evaluate Jepsen and our internal options (and Perkins, given his recent ups and downs).

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It's probably a different article and a different topic, but Jepsen certainly is a long-term extension candidate this offseason... though he is now one year from a potential big pay day in free agency, though he also may want to take some long-term guaranteed money now.

If you don't like 3 year deals for relievers, why wouid you consider extending Jepsen?

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Why do you guys do this? He didn't ask what the Twins would do.

 

 

It's interesting though. When he was told he was going to the AFL, he was told he would be pitching out of the bullpen. In part due to where he was already at innings-wise. Now he's at 199 innings and could pitch in tomorrow's championship game.

 

That is odd. One would think that such a thing wouldn't change, given the best interest of the actual MLB team.

But do you maybe smell something different here, Seth? I think Rogers can be successful as a starter, and most of 2015 demonstrated that. I wonder if there is something brewing trade-wise from the current rotation (Gibson, namely). Berrios and Rogers, then, would be the backup plan for Hughes-Santana-Nolasco-May-Duffey (Milone coming back seems unlikely to me).

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I would look for one left-handed, veteran reliever to replace Brian Duensing. That could be Neal Cotts, or another reliever willing to sign for one year (or available in a trade). In the Offseason Handbook, we suggested a Matt Thornton for about $4 million. Other names include Randy Choate or Manny Parra.

Signing a single Thornton or Cotts level reliever largely means will we start the year with our post-August 21st 2015 bullpen.

 

Which means another Perkins injury, OR May needing to go back to the rotation, OR minor league options not stepping forward again leaves us perilously close to another pen disaster and trade deadline desperation.

 

Personally, that's not an acceptable way to address a problem that was plainly evident for a season in which you expect to contend.  Certainly it's not worth resisting even a modest $12 or $15 million commitment to a FA reliever.  Those options need to be discussed, and thoroughly.

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I agree about Thornton, but absent *any* signing:

Pressly, Darnell, Graham, O'Rourke, Tonkin, Jepsen, Perkins

 

I still think O'Rourke can be a highly effective LOOGY at 35ish innings. Darnell might really excel as MR guy. Graham or Pressly will be best served in long relief.

Not going to lie, though . . . I have doubts about Jepsen.

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