Article: Predicting The Twins 40 Man Roster Additions

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I believe that since you don't have room on your 40-man roster, he would have to be on your minor league reserve list.

If you don't have room on your 40-man, and you choose not to make room, the player would have to pass through waivers and be outrighted anyway.

 

Otherwise, I suspect you would be able to make room for a newly-acquired player and add them to your 40-man roster, thus giving them Rule 5 protection, at any time.  (The player you drop from the 40-man would then have to pass through waivers and be exposed to Rule 5 if unclaimed.)

[nicksaviking]

 

Things the Twins need to consider in this decision:

 

1.) Would that player be selected?

2.) Could that player stick with another team through the year?

3.) If lost, would it be devastating or would it be fine?

 

I think the Twins should concern themselves most with number 3.  Don't worry about trying not to lose a guy, only worry about losing a guy you actually want.

 

To that end, let Dean go.  Unless this team is reverting back to the Albers/De Vries days, there is no reasonable place for Dean on this team, if another team thinks they could use him, good for them and good for Dean, that's what this draft is designed for anyway, so teams can't hoard players they'll never use even if another team would.

[Rosterman]

And you also look at what has been invested in the player (like Kepler, he was an expensive signing by the Twins...the Rule 5 allows you to possibly grab guys that other teams paid good draft money for to add to your system, if you have the ability to keep them on the roster somehow all season).

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think the Twins should concern themselves most with number 3.  Don't worry about trying not to lose a guy, only worry about losing a guy you actually want.

 

To that end, let Dean go.  Unless this team is reverting back to the Albers/De Vries days, there is no reasonable place for Dean on this team, if another team thinks they could use him, good for them and good for Dean, that's what this draft is designed for anyway, so teams can't hoard players they'll never use even if another team would.

 

I don't know if that's fair. Maybe, but he put up ridiculous numbers in 2015 in AAA. I've heard that he has really improved his curveball and slider. I'm not saying they should protect him, but I don't think we should talk about him like he has no value. Like I wrote about, he pitched better than Gilmartin when he was taken. I'm not even saying I would protect him, but it's not a bad thing if they do.

[Mike Sixel]

They've made odd decisions, imo, in the past. I really don't know what to expect.....

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

By the way, those on Twitter will be able to Vote on whether or not you would add these guys to the 40 man roster. 

 

Go to www.twitter.com/sethtweets for the polls. I mean, you can follow me too, if you want... When you vote, you can see the sample size and the results. Should be interesting. The vote goes for 24 hours and I"ll be sure to post the results here.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't know if that's fair. Maybe, but he put up ridiculous numbers in 2015 in AAA. I've heard that he has really improved his curveball and slider. I'm not saying they should protect him, but I don't think we should talk about him like he has no value. Like I wrote about, he pitched better than Gilmartin when he was taken. I'm not even saying I would protect him, but it's not a bad thing if they do.

 

I don't mean to demean Dean at all, simply he has a half dozen guys to jump over to ever be considered for the rotation and he has always had very poor strikeout numbers which should mean he isn't suited for the pen at all.

 

He's got nowhere to go with the Twins, I really do hope he gets a shot with a team that thinks they could use him.

[tobi0040]

Isn't the likelihood that Jorge gets drafted and sticks on an MLB roster all year a real long shot?

 

He repeated low A as a 21 year old after being rocked the year before.  His ERA was under 3.00, but he struck out just 7.2 per 9.  I think he would get eaten up in the big leagues right now.

Edited November 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[diehardtwinsfan]

Rodgers, Walker, and Chargois are no brainers in my opinion.  I'd probably rather have Levi Michael than Pat Dean personally.  Dean is a guy I'd be trying to trade as he really doesn't have a future in MN and he's at best a 5th starter. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Isn't the likelihood that Jorge gets drafted and sticks on an MLB roster all year a real long shot?

 

He repeated low A as a 21 year old after being rocked the year before.  His ERA was under 3.00, but he struck out just 7.2 per 9.  I think he would get eaten up in the big leagues right now.

 

That's my opinion. I think he's got a ton of talent though. I think he's someone they have to consider protecting. I don't think I would. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know if that's fair. Maybe, but he put up ridiculous numbers in 2015 in AAA.

Ridiculous?  Dean had a nice ERA, but it's considered a pitcher's league.  Just among qualifiers, he was behind 38 year old Randy Wolf, Michael Bowden, and someone named Greg Smith. The top 15 is pretty much a who's who of non-prospects except Henry Owens and Erik Johnson -- you can even find former Twins property Scott Diamond and Kyle Davies in that group:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=2&qual=y&type=0&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=5,a

 

This is without even considering peripherals and FIP.

 

Also, Rule 5 is generally a place where teams grab talented guys who have underwhelming recent minor league stats, not a place to target guys whose recent minor league stats likely outpaced their talent.

 

I'd be shocked if Dean was selected, and will be disappointed if the Twins protect him.  Not only could it also leave someone else unprotected, but it could prevent us from making our own Rule 5 selection, and perhaps most importantly, ties up a 40-man spot likely for the whole 2016 season that we could use on waiver claims.

[tobi0040]

 

That's my opinion. I think he's got a ton of talent though. I think he's someone they have to consider protecting. I don't think I would. 

 

Gotcha.  I would think if he got drafted we would be able to get him back or work out a trade down the road.  Agreed on the talent.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Ridiculous?  Dean had a nice ERA, but it's considered a pitcher's league.  Just among qualifiers, he was behind 38 year old Randy Wolf, Michael Bowden, and someone named Greg Smith. The top 15 is pretty much a who's who of non-prospects except Henry Owens and Erik Johnson -- you can even find former Twins property Scott Diamond and Kyle Davies in that group:

 

 

Ridiculous considering how poorly he (and he admits he) pitched last year, and the fact that he wasn't even supposed to be in the Red Wings rotation to start the season.

Like I said, I don't think I would protect him, but I don't think it's crazy based on his improvements of the breaking pitches.

[stringer bell]

Just don't see Dean as that needed to be protected.  Williams and Bard scare me as they could be hidden on the 25 man roster, could also see us losing Michael.  Twins could lose 4-5 players this year, it will hurt.  Pick your poison.

They won't lose that many. Once one of their players is selected they can pull back a number of players IIRC. They could lose one or perhaps two at the worst.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ridiculous considering how poorly he (and he admits he) pitched last year, and the fact that he wasn't even supposed to be in the Red Wings rotation to start the season.

Like I said, I don't think I would protect him, but I don't think it's crazy based on his improvements of the breaking pitches.

Thanks for the clarification.  Given you are describing his performance relative to expectations, I think that's much better described as pleasantly surprising/unexpected rather than ridiculous.  Which is good, but probably well short of vaulting him to the top 15 or so among Rule 5 eligible players.  Teams don't draft players in Rule 5 on the basis of how much they exceeded expectations at AAA.

 

How many players entering their age 27 season have been selected in the Rule 5 draft, much less stuck with their new team?  Outside the odd cases of RA Dickey and Andy Oliver (who both had previous MLB experience), I can't recall any.

 

Protecting Dean due to "improvements of his breaking pitches" (which only manifested themselves in his results on contact in a AAA pitcher's league and not in K% or BB%), against draft history and Dean's own track record, would indeed be crazy.

 

Glad to hear you wouldn't do it, but I hope your's and Jeremy's prediction about it doesn't come to fruition.

 

Nothing against Dean, I absolutely hope he gets an MLB shot somewhere, heck I wouldn't even mind if he got some mop-up innings for the Twins in 2016.  I just don't want us to lock him into a 40-man spot right now, not when we should looking to add talent ourselves via Rule 5, free agency, and waivers.

Edited November 18, 2015 by spycake

[Dman]

I'm not a huge fan of putting Levi on the 40 as I think if we are keeping both Nunez and Santana we have enough utility infielders.  Even if everybody got hurt I would prefer Polanco to Levi anyway.  I don't think there is enough upside there to put him on.

 

I felt like Pat Dean had a great year last year but I Like what NicksaViking had to say about Dean.  Again I don't think he is someone worth protecting but the Twins do know him better than I do.  Would be nice if they could work out some sort of trade with him added in.

 

I really do like Melotakis.  I know it is hard to say how he will come back but he had outstanding stuff.  I liked him as a starter but in the Pen he should be dominant.  Seems risky to leave him out there since it seems guys can be hidden in the pen for other teams.

 

I like Zach Jones too.  Might be a tougher call there but if it were me I would add him.

 

Not sure what to think about Harrison as he does have good plate discipline but he hasn't shown power so I would think he would be safe if they don't protect him.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather keep potential RP than potential utility INF any day of the year.

[sane]

 

They won't lose that many. Once one of their players is selected they can pull back a number of players IIRC. They could lose one or perhaps two at the worst.

Not true.

Three of the thirteen selected last year were taken from the Astros.

 

[SarasotaBill]

RP and utility are the two places where teams can hide players on the MLB roster.

Michael can't play SS. 

After Rogers and Walker, protect the hard throwing RP.

No brainer - Chargois, Jones, Williams (LHP)

Should - Melotakis (LHP)

Probably - Bard (if healthy)

[tobi0040]

 

Not true.

Three of the thirteen selected last year were taken from the Astros.

 

That doesn't neccesarly mean it is not true.  The Astros may have not really cared about the other two.

 

Or been happy that another org was giving them a shot. 

Edited November 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[sane]

"They could lose one or perhaps two at the worst"

If the Astros lost three, then two can't be the worst.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't believe there is any provision to protect more than 40 players for the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, even after one of your unprotected players has been selected.  I don't think I've heard of such a provision for the minor league phase either (although the minor league phases are pretty all-encompassing, isn't Brian Buscher one of the great minor league phase success stories? ).

[tobi0040]

 

"They could lose one or perhaps two at the worst"
If the Astros lost three, then two can't be the worst.

 

Right.  I get that three is more than two.  But the initial poster said a team can pull guys back at that point. 

 

It is possible that a team has that right but does not exercise it.  Probably moot anyways per Spycake's post. 

[sane]

Right.  I get that three is more than two.  But the initial poster said a team can pull guys back at that point. 

It is possible that a team has that right but does not exercise it.

It is not in the printed rules for Rule V draft.

That is another reason that I said that it wasn't true. If it did exist,

Why would any team NOT exercise it? They have NO ONE they wish to protect?

Not likely.

[DJL44]

You can pull guys back in an expansion draft. Not the Rule 5.

[Darius]

If I were making the deisions, I wouldn't be overly worried about losing Michael.  If he gets passed over, great.  If he gets selected, oh well.

 

The only logical replacement on that list would probably be Goodrum, and I can't see him getting selected.  So, maybe he sneaks on there purely because of a lack of alternatives, not because he has any significant projected value to the team in the future.

 

 

[sane]

If I were making the deisions, I wouldn't be overly worried about losing Michael.  If he gets passed over, great.  If he gets selected, oh well.

 

The only logical replacement on that list would probably be Goodrum, and I can't see him getting selected.  So, maybe he sneaks on there purely because of a lack of alternatives, not because he has any significant projected value to the team in the future.

Disagree that Goodrum is ONLY logical replacement. IMO Bard, Melotakis, Williams, Jones, Rogers, Chargois, Walker, and Jorge are all keepers, and presently only seven of the eight can be protected.

[Thrylos]

They'll add Rogers,  they'll add Chargois (they better), they'll add Walker. 

I'd add Michael (I believe that he turned that corner and be with the Twins this season)

 

Then the equation gets more complex:  

 

Do they prefer Darnell and O'Rourke more than of Melotakis/Dean/Williams (not sure he will be drafted anyways?)

Do they prefer Achter and Tonkin rather than Jones, Jorge, Landa?

 

I don't think that anyone will draft Harrison.  Not ready.

 

They need space for a couple of MLB-ready arms as well.  I'd waive Darnell, O'Rourke, Achter and Tonkin and add Melotakis, Jorge and Landa.  to the 4 aforementioned.  That leaves them 3 spots plus Park's to add MLB-ready relievers and maybe a bat. 

Trades/non-tenders should also happen.  Not sure what others on the 40-man roster (Milone/Fien/Nunez) add to a contender.

 

 

The only other player who might get picked by the likes of Milwaukee or Philly, is Reynaldo Rodriguez, but I don't see them adding him at this point.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Thrylos

[GMinTraining]

Milwaukee has nothing to loose by drafting a particular high upside reliever.  A Melotakis (ex.) is a perfect pick for them because they can make it with 39 players and possibly hold him out for medical reasons.  They already know this is going to be a long season, so why not take a shot on a potential key future regular.

[Thrylos]

 

Milwaukee has nothing to loose by drafting a particular high upside reliever.  A Melotakis (ex.) is a perfect pick for them because they can make it with 39 players and possibly hold him out for medical reasons.  They already know this is going to be a long season, so why not take a shot on a potential key future regular.

 

 

The rule says that someone taken in the Rule 5 draft has to be active for 90 days before placed in the DL, to prevent things like that.  If Melotakis is not ready to pitch on opening day, I doubt that any team will take a chance on him and effectively play 3 months with a 24 man roster.