Article: Predicting The Twins 40 Man Roster Additions

[GMinTraining]

 

The rule says that someone taken in the Rule 5 draft has to be active for 90 days before placed in the DL, to prevent things like that.  If Melotakis is not ready to pitch on opening day, I doubt that any team will take a chance on him and effectively play 3 months with a 24 man roster.

Gotcha

[sane]

The rule says that someone taken in the Rule 5 draft has to be active for 90 days before placed in the DL, to prevent things like that.  If Melotakis is not ready to pitch on opening day, I doubt that any team will take a chance on him and effectively play 3 months with a 24 man roster.

The rule is actually that the draftee can not be inactive for MORE THAN 90 days in a season. So he can be on the DL for the first 90 days, but must remain active for the remainder of the season, or be returned to his original team. In any case, if he is on the 60-day DL, he may be substituted for on the 40-man. If he is on the 15-day DL, he may be temporarily replaced on the active 25-man, by anyone on the 40-man.

[ashbury]

The rule is actually that the draftee can not be inactive for MORE THAN 90 days in a season. So he can be on the DL for the first 90 days, but must remain active for the remainder of the season, or be returned to his original team.

"Here's your player back. I think we mighta broke 'im."

[sane]

"Here's your player back. I think we mighta broke 'im."

Is he still on warranty?

[Linus]

Geez don't worry about Michael - Nobody is claiming him. If you think otherwise you don't understand the process. Protect your pitchers.

[jsteve96]

i'd protect Rogers, Walker, Chargois, Michael, and maybe one more flamethrower in that group

[jsteve96]

 

Geez don't worry about Michael - Nobody is claiming him. If you think otherwise you don't understand the process. Protect your pitchers.

disagree

[jsteve96]

 

Couldn't a team selecting either Melotakis or Bard replace them temporarily if they had to be on the DL? (see JR Graham 2015)
Seems like a perfect situation for a Rule V pick. I think they are ripe to be selected.
I can't see Michael using up a position player roster spot for an MLB team.

you can't see michael taking a spot but you can see a guy who hasn't pitched in almost 2 years on a MLB roster for 4 months? and He has only pitched in 13 AA games

[jsteve96]

I looked at a few teams that maybe have too many guys like the Twins that could be selected off the Rule 5, here are some guys I think that might get through that could be a good pick up for the Twins.. I'm not too experienced in anything Rule 5 so don't be too judgemental

Andrew Aplin OF Astros #23 .296/.413/.379 in '15 AAA

Nolan Fontana IF Astros #24 Very high BB rate, .241/.369/.357 AAA

Jandel Gustave CL Astros #28 Ctrl probs 2.15 ERA 58 innings 48/25 K/BB AAA

Matthew Strahm SP 1 Royals #25 2.59ERA in 94 innings 121 Strikeouts in high-A

B Fuenmeyer 1B. Royals #28 .972 OPS in AAA

Ivan Pineyro SP Marlins 3.02 ERA in 2015

 

Can't wait to how it all plays out

Edited November 19, 2015 by jsteve96

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd probably note their ages here too.  Fuenmeyer would be an interesting guy to grab if he was say 23.

 

That said, Michael will be in Rochester next season playing an up the middle position with a bat that was well above average for said position.  He's a former first rounder who definitely struggled at first.  I can see it either way, but if I was hurting for MI help, Michael would be a decent get.  He might be a bench guy in MLB this year, but you could burn an option getting him development in AAA and then have him for 5 more years after that.  Personally, I'd protect him.  I do agree that the Twins probably have a better feel for whether or not that is necessary, and that answer may very well be that it isn't.  I'm not sure I'd take the risk unless there's a rule V guy they have to have or a few more FAs they plan on getting. 

[ashbury]

I'd probably note their ages here too.  Fuenmeyer would be an interesting guy to grab if he was say 23.

Minor league free agent deal? Sure. Rule 5? No way, not even if he were younger.

[markos]

 

I'd probably note their ages here too.  Fuenmeyer would be an interesting guy to grab if he was say 23.

 

That said, Michael will be in Rochester next season playing an up the middle position with a bat that was well above average for said position.  He's a former first rounder who definitely struggled at first.  I can see it either way, but if I was hurting for MI help, Michael would be a decent get.  He might be a bench guy in MLB this year, but you could burn an option getting him development in AAA and then have him for 5 more years after that.  Personally, I'd protect him.  I do agree that the Twins probably have a better feel for whether or not that is necessary, and that answer may very well be that it isn't.  I'm not sure I'd take the risk unless there's a rule V guy they have to have or a few more FAs they plan on getting. 

I'm not sure about Michael either. I think he fits the archetype of a player who might be selected, as he:

1) Fits the utility infield role, as he probably won't kill you if he started once or twice a week at any of the three infield positions, especially if you match him up against a lefty.

2) Switch-hits, and seems to have decent walk/strikeout rates. 

3) Isn't good enough that you would care if you ruined his development by having him mostly rot on the bench as a 25-man.

4) But if you squint hard you can see the potential upside of an everyday player in the future.

 

But I don't really have any idea how many other players will be available that fit that same pattern. From the list that jsteve96 posted, Nolan Fontana is clearly a much better option. Are there going to be a dozen middle-infielders available that are better than Michael? Or only one? That should factor into whether or not a player is protected or not. 

[nicksaviking]

 

They'll add Rogers,  they'll add Chargois (they better), they'll add Walker. 

I'd add Michael (I believe that he turned that corner and be with the Twins this season)

 

Then the equation gets more complex:  

 

Do they prefer Darnell and O'Rourke more than of Melotakis/Dean/Williams (not sure he will be drafted anyways?)

Do they prefer Achter and Tonkin rather than Jones, Jorge, Landa?

 

I don't think that anyone will draft Harrison.  Not ready.

 

They need space for a couple of MLB-ready arms as well.  I'd waive Darnell, O'Rourke, Achter and Tonkin and add Melotakis, Jorge and Landa.  to the 4 aforementioned.  That leaves them 3 spots plus Park's to add MLB-ready relievers and maybe a bat. 

Trades/non-tenders should also happen.  Not sure what others on the 40-man roster (Milone/Fien/Nunez) add to a contender.

 

 

The only other player who might get picked by the likes of Milwaukee or Philly, is Reynaldo Rodriguez, but I don't see them adding him at this point.

 

I'm in the minority, but I agree about Michael.  I really did not like the draft pick, and certainly he hasn't lived up to his draft status, but this guy has been getting on base the past two years.  He can take a walk and doesn't strikeout much.  He doesn't look overly special but he also doesn't look a whole lot different than Brian Dozier at the age of 24.  I think a utility guy who can get on base gets selected and I can still see him being useful to the Twins.

 

Also good point on Achter, Darnell and O'Rourke, are these guys with minimal MLB experience really more valuable than the guys behind them with no experience but a much higher ceiling?  I like Tonkin's MiLB strikeout numbers and 94 MPH fastball enough to keep him though.

 

Also agree on Harrison.  I'm not giving up on him, but as far as I can recall, the only players who have been successfully hidden on rosters despite the need for more MiLB seasoning have been relief pitchers and batters who can play a premium defensive position.  No one's going to keep a corner OF on the roster who can't hit yet.  Even if he did get selected, so many guys are blocking him at the moment that we'd be destined to play the Rule V game with him the next two years too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Since tomorrow (Friday Nov. 20) is the deadline to protect players, we should see a lot more comprehensive lists after that.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins are 17th in line.  It's usually very slim pickings by that point -- even the guys that "stick" at that point in the draft tend to be low-upside players, and they often don't really stick but the teams negotiation a trade (like Scott Diamond).  We are probably better off just protecting an extra guy of our own.

 

How late can we drop a player to make room for a Rule 5 selection, though?  Could we DFA someone like Achter the very day of the draft if a name we like is still on the board as our pick comes up?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The only other player who might get picked by the likes of Milwaukee or Philly, is Reynaldo Rodriguez, but I don't see them adding him at this point.

Reynaldo Rodriguez just re-signed with us as a minor league free agent, those players are eligible to be picked in Rule 5 but it's pretty rare.  R.A. Dickey is the notable example of that, although he was a knuckleballer who had extensive MLB experience at the time.  No one is going to select the soon to be 30, zero MLB experience, 115 wRC+ at AAA 1B Reynaldo Rodriguez.

[sane]

How late can we drop a player to make room for a Rule 5 selection, though?  Could we DFA someone like Achter the very day of the draft if a name we like is still on the board as our pick comes up?

IDK, but it seems logical that if teams have to submit a roster THIS FAR in advance,(almost three weeks) that a revision to that roster would not be a speedy process that can be completed at the last minute.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

IDK, but it seems logical that if teams have to submit a roster THIS FAR in advance,(almost three weeks) that a revision to that roster would not be a speedy process that can be completed at the last minute.

The advance requirement is so teams actually know who is available in the Rule 5, which would be difficult if teams were protecting their players at the last minute.

 

The "revision" I am suggesting doesn't actually add anyone for protection, just removes a player.  Happens all the time as free agents are signed or waiver claims are made, doesn't seem like it would be functionally different to drop a guy and immediately make a Rule 5 selection.

 

In any case, answering my own question, I think they can drop guys pretty late.  I see Ortiz was officially released the exact same day we drafted Jose Morban back in the 2002 Rule 5 draft.

 

EDIT TO ADD: I did find this, though: "A player cannot be sent outright to the minors on the two days prior to the Rule 5 Draft and on the day of the Rule 5 Draft up through the conclusion of the draft."

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3530

 

So if you wanted to keep the player you are removing (outright to minors if he clears waivers), you can't do it in the 2 days leading up to the Rule 5 draft.  You could release him like we did with Ortiz though, but that makes him a full free agent.

Edited November 19, 2015 by spycake

[jsteve96]

Minor league free agent deal? Sure. Rule 5? No way, not even if he were younger.

No way? You do realize the last few years we got Diamond, Pressley and JR? Diamond was the best pitcher on the team one year- Pressley has shown that he's good out of the pen when he's healthy and JR wasn't really that bad? Saying it'll never happen for them to pick up a decent prospect in Rule 5 is ignorant.. All you have to do is put the guy in long relief for 90 days then you can send him down to get better.. C'mon man

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No way? You do realize the last few years we got Diamond, Pressley and JR? Diamond was the best pitcher on the team one year- Pressley has shown that he's good out of the pen when he's healthy and JR wasn't really that bad? Saying it'll never happen for them to pick up a decent prospect in Rule 5 is ignorant.. All you have to do is put the guy in long relief for 90 days then you can send him down to get better.. C'mon man

He was saying "no way" to drafting that specific player (Balbino Fuenmayor, who I think deserves consideration based on his name alone ).

[Seth Stohs]

The moment you've all been waiting for... OK, maybe not... however, here are the results of my Twitter polls from yesterday. The question, Would you add Player X to the 40 man roster?

 

Player - Yes/No (percent) - Sample Size of vote

Taylor Rogers - Yes (74%) - 144

AB Walker - Yes (94%) - 178 

JT Chargois - Yes (79%) - 148

Pat Dean - No (63%) - 141

Zack Jones - Yes (63%) - 131 

Levi Michael - No (61%) - 147

Felix Jorge - Yes (52%) - 140 

Corey Williams - No (82%) - 131

Travis Harrison - No (64%) - 129 

Yorman Landa - No (79%) - 126

Luke Bard - No (64%) - 132

Mason Melotakis - No (63%) - 133

DJ Baxendale - No (73%) - 128 

Alex Wimmers - No (70%) - 153

[big dog]

 

No way? You do realize the last few years we got Diamond, Pressley and JR? Diamond was the best pitcher on the team one year- Pressley has shown that he's good out of the pen when he's healthy and JR wasn't really that bad? Saying it'll never happen for them to pick up a decent prospect in Rule 5 is ignorant.. All you have to do is put the guy in long relief for 90 days then you can send him down to get better.. C'mon man

No, you can't send him down.  The 90 day rule refers to days he has to be active; he can be on the DL if he's injured, but he can't be sent down.

[sane]

 

The advance requirement is so teams actually know who is available in the Rule 5, which would be difficult if teams were protecting their players at the last minute.

 

The "revision" I am suggesting doesn't actually add anyone for protection, just removes a player.  Happens all the time as free agents are signed or waiver claims are made, doesn't seem like it would be functionally different to drop a guy and immediately make a Rule 5 selection.

 

In any case, answering my own question, I think they can drop guys pretty late.  I see Ortiz was officially released the exact same day we drafted Jose Morban back in the 2002 Rule 5 draft.

 

EDIT TO ADD: I did find this, though: "A player cannot be sent outright to the minors on the two days prior to the Rule 5 Draft and on the day of the Rule 5 Draft up through the conclusion of the draft."

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3530

 

So if you wanted to keep the player you are removing (outright to minors if he clears waivers), you can't do it in the 2 days leading up to the Rule 5 draft.  You could release him like we did with Ortiz though, but that makes him a full free agent.

Thanks for finding that rule, which I was unable to find.

I hope it took you less time to find it, than I wasted searching for it.

[sane]

 

He was saying "no way" to drafting that specific player (Balbino Fuenmayor, who I think deserves consideration based on his name alone ).

Ya gotta love the "Great Balbino"!

 

[ashbury]

No way? You do realize the last few years we got Diamond, Pressley and JR? Diamond was the best pitcher on the team one year- Pressley has shown that he's good out of the pen when he's healthy and JR wasn't really that bad? Saying it'll never happen for them to pick up a decent prospect in Rule 5 is ignorant.. All you have to do is put the guy in long relief for 90 days then you can send him down to get better.. C'mon man

He was saying "no way" to drafting that specific player (Balbino Fuenmayor, who I think deserves consideration based on his name alone ).

There would be some entertainment value in watching a corner infielder working in the bullpen, too.

 

[jsteve96]

The moment you've all been waiting for... OK, maybe not... however, here are the results of my Twitter polls from yesterday. The question, Would you add Player X to the 40 man roster?

 

Player - Yes/No (percent) - Sample Size of vote

Taylor Rogers - Yes (74%) - 144

AB Walker - Yes (94%) - 178 

JT Chargois - Yes (79%) - 148

Pat Dean - No (63%) - 141

Zack Jones - Yes (63%) - 131 

Levi Michael - No (61%) - 147

Felix Jorge - Yes (52%) - 140 

Corey Williams - No (82%) - 131

Travis Harrison - No (64%) - 129 

Yorman Landa - No (79%) - 126

Luke Bard - No (64%) - 132

Mason Melotakis - No (63%) - 133

DJ Baxendale - No (73%) - 128 

Alex Wimmers - No (70%) - 153

Thanks for doing the Polls Seth! I don't think Jorge will be protected based on him being in A ball but we'll see I guess

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for finding that rule, which I was unable to find.

I hope it took you less time to find it, than I wasted searching for it.

That Cub Reporter site seems to have everything, I don't usually look too far beyond that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looks like the DL could be the new Rule 5 strategy, especially with TJ surgery pitchers like Melotakis -- spend half the year on DL (easy for for surgery recovery), then active for 2 months and you can effectively shut him down with expanded rosters for September and he's met the 90 days active requirement.  If he's not physically ready by July, or you don't think you can spare the 25-man spot at that moment, you can leave him on the DL longer and make up for it with a little extra time on the 25-man to begin the following season.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Thanks for doing the Polls Seth! I don't think Jorge will be protected based on him being in A ball but we'll see I guess

 

Polanco and Kepler were added after Low A ball. I remember Deibinson Romero and Rene Tosoni were added after playing in Beloit. It definitely happens. Of course, notice all of those guys were hitters. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

MLB.com (via the Twins website) has an article saying that the Twins are likely to protect Dean. I would guess that there's some mouthpiece within the organization associated with that information. What's the disconnect between what the organization sees in him and what everyone here sees?

[sane]

MLB.com (via the Twins website) has an article saying that the Twins are likely to protect Dean. I would guess that there's some mouthpiece within the organization associated with that information. What's the disconnect between what the organization sees in him and what everyone here sees?

The Twins saw performance as a AAA SP which they think transfers to a MLB RP.

His 2015 performance was good and maybe it "wowed" the Twins.

Most of us see a non-prospect, where the Twins see a MLB ready RP.