Article: Predicting The Twins 40 Man Roster Additions

[Seth Stohs]

By the end of this week, the Minnesota Twins will have to add some players to their 40-man roster. The Twins currently have 33 players on their 40-man roster. That number does not include Byung-Ho Kim. So, the Twins could add as many as six players to the roster. Most likely, they will add three to four players.

 

In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, I went into more detail on several of the players that the Twins will likely consider for adding to the 40-man roster. Today, I’ll post the most likely players for the Twins to add with some more information. We’ll start at #1 with the player most likely to be added, and get through the top 10. Of course, these are just my opinion, so I’d encourage your thoughts below.Let’s get started… but first, who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected on a 40 man roster?

• Players signed at the age of 18 or less in 2011 (signed before end of minor league season)
• Players signed at the age of 19 or more in 2012
• Players signed under the first two categories in previous years.

#1 – LHP Taylor Rogers

The 25-year-old southpaw has moved up a level each year since being the Twins 11^th round pick in 2012 out of the University of Kentucky. He has done well as a starter, though many believe that he could be tremendous out of the bullpen. With the Twins depth of starting pitchers, Rogers could be a guy who gets to the Twins quickly out of the bullpen. Consider left-handers hit just .177/.209/.193 (.402) off him in 2015 in AAA. Rogers has a good fastball with a really, really good slider that is devastating to lefties. He needs a better changeup if he wants to be a starter, specifically to help get right-handers out. After throwing 174 innings during the regular season, he has thrown another 25 innings, so far, in the AFL. Rogers will pitch in the big leagues for a long time.

 

#2 – OF Adam Brett Walker

Yes, he strikes out too much. Yes, there are concerns about his pitch recognition. However, he’s just 24, and is a legitimate 8 power on the scout’s 2-8 chart. He led minor league baseball in strikeouts (195) this year, but he also hit 31 home runs and ended with 65 extra base hits. He has led his league in home runs each of the last three seasons. Walker is adequate in the outfield, with an arm for left field. The Twins third-round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University has done well in the Arizona Fall League as well, with five home runs.

 

#3 – RH RP JT Chargois

It may sound strange to say that a guy who didn’t pitch in 2013 and 2014 is a given to be added to the 4- man roster, but I believe he is. Why? He is capable and frequently hit 100 mph with his fastball. He was consistently at 98 and 99 mph. He was the Twins second round pick in 2012 out of Rice University where he was co-closer with Tyler Duffey. He pitched 16 innings in Elizabethton that year and then missed the next two years with elbow problems that culminated in Tommy John surgery. He’s not a finished project. He can throw more strikes and his slider, while a terrific pitch, can be inconsistent. Two big league pitches and he can be a dominant late-inning reliever, soon.

 

#4 – LHP Pat Dean

After a 2014 season in AA that he described as remarkably disappointing, Dean responded with a terrific 2015 season in Rochester. The lefty, who was the Twins third-round pick in 2010 out of Boston College. In 2015, he went 12-11 with a 2.82 over a minor league-leading 179 innings pitched. If he isn’t protected, there is a good chance that he is selected in the Rule 5 draft.

 

#5 – 2B Levi Michael

Michael was the Twins first-round pick in 2011 out of the University of North Carolina. His biggest issue through his professional career has been the injury bug. However, the last two years when he has been healthy, he has been good. In 2014 he played in just 65 games but he hit a combined .313/.389/.387 (.776). He spent 2015 in Chattanooga and played just 63 games. He hit .267/.369/.434 (.804) with 12 doubles, five triples and five home runs. Michael may not have any tools that jump out of the roof, but he is a solid player all around. He’s got good speed, puts together good at-bats, has doubles power, and plays solid defense. He is primarily a second baseman, but he could probably make a team as a 25^th man who can play all three infield positions. Still just 24, he is a guy who could stick with a big league team.

 

#6 – RHP Zack Jones

A year ago, Zack Jones was on path to be an easy add to the roster at this time. However, after being a Southern League All-Star following a strong first half in AA, he really struggled and ended his season back in Ft. Myers. However, that doesn’t negate his upside. It also doesn’t negate his upper-90s fastball. He also has a very good slider. However, he can struggle with control of each. There may be a team out there willing to give him an opportunity in some low-level situations throughout 2016. He was the Twins fourth-round pick in 2012.

 

#7 – RHP Felix Jorge

Jorge is just 22. He signed out of Venezuela in 2010. He struggled mightily in Cedar Rapids in 2014. He returned to the Kernels and was remarkably consistent all year. In fact, he completed six innings in 19 of his 22 starts and never went less than five innings. I think he’s a longer-shot to be added because he is still quite far from being big league ready.

 

#8 – LHP Corey Williams

Williams came back from Tommy John surgery in early June after having the surgery on April 1, 2014, and missing that season. He split his time between Fort Myers and Chattanooga and pitched well. He is definitely one to watch following a regular offseason. Left-handed. Throws hard. Stuff described as nasty. I feel like he should be higher up on this list.

 

The same might be said of another power lefty. Mason Melotakis had Tommy John surgery late in 2014 and will return to action in 2016. When healthy, his 97 mph fastball and three-pitch mix make him intriguing. However, he is behind Williams in the return schedule which makes him unlikely to be taken.

 

#9 – OF Travis Harrison

Twins supplemental first-round pick in 2011 (50^th overall) out of high school in California, Harrison has worked his way up one level at a time each year. To this point, his best tool has been his patience and approach at the plate. Still just 23, he has very good power potential despite not hitting home runs the last couple of years. Defensively, he is adequate in right field and has a strong arm. I think it might serve him best to get another half-season in Chattanooga, but there’s still enough upside and talent that a team might be willing to have him take up a roster spot.

 

#10 – RHP Yorman Landa

Signed by the Twins out of Venezuela in 2010, Landa has fought some shoulder injuries the last couple of seasons. When healthy, he is another guy who is capable of reaching into the upper-90s and has a good slider as well. Over time, he could develop into a late-inning power arm. However, having just finished a season in Cedar Rapids, he is likely too far away from the big leagues to be selected in the Rule 5.

 

 

OTHER ELIGIBLES:

RHP Jose Abreu, RHP Jason Adam, RHP Nick Anderson, RHP Luke Bard, RHP Omar Bencomo, OF Edgar Corcino, RHP DJ Baxendale, RHP Sam Gibbons, RHP Miguel Gonzalez, IF/OF Niko Goodrum, 1B/3B Bryan Haar, 1B Dalton Hicks, LHP David Hurlbut, RHP Cole Johnson, LHP Brett Lee, RHP Kuo-Hua Lo, IF Aderlin Mejia, RHP Alex Muren, C Carlos Paulino, RHP Greg Peavey, C Michael Quesada, RHP Dereck Rodriguez, C Jairo Rodriguez, OF/1B Reynaldo Rodriguez, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Tim Shibuya, RHP Matt Summers, RHP Loek Van Mil, RHP Todd Van Steensel, IF/OF Logan Wade, LHP Jason Wheeler, IF/OF Stephen Wickens, RHP Alex Wimmers.

 

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[Rosterman]

There really isn't a lot of names necessary for addition there. People like Jones, for example, would be a big gamble. If the age works right and you got a back-of-the-bullpen spot for a pitcher, the Twins could be ripe for picking. The only other name with some consideration is Luke Bard, who could be a sleeper, but would probably be a wait-and-see for the future. Interesting that the Twins do have a considerable number of promising lefties in the pipeline. So, do we bring back Duensing or not? Taylor is the big addition (don't lose him like we did Gilmartin). He could be a bullpen guy. Far better than Boyer, I would think. 

 

[sane]

Melotakis and Bard were the Twins' 3rd and 4th picks in the 2012 draft, after Buxton and Berrios, and ahead of Chargois, Walker, Jones, Duffey and Rogers. IMO those two have higher ceilings than your #4 and #5 picks, Dean and Michael.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Melotakis and Bard were the Twins' 3rd and 4th picks in the 2012 draft, after Buxton and Berrios, and ahead of Chargois, Walker, Jones, Duffey and Rogers. IMO those two have higher ceilings than your #4 and #5 picks, Dean and Michael.

 

I don't disagree with that. However, when it comes to likelihood of a player being selected, something that has to be considered is the likelihood that a player will make the roster. Melotakis won't likely pitch for a couple of months into the season, and even then he would need to be monitored very closely. 

 

Bard and Melotakis both have great stuff. Both have been hurt. Bard got through this season, starting in early June. He'll start in Ft. Myers and I think he could move up a level pretty quickly, but that's a long ways to go. 

 

I just can't see either being selected... 

[stringer bell]

If the main point of being added to the 40-man roster is avoiding Rule V losses, I think the Twins should protect Melotakis and Niko Goodrum. I think Melotakis is going to be a fine pitcher for someone, but next year his innings and effectiveness will be limited. Goodrum is versatile, fast, and athletic. Hitting has been his big problem, but I can see a team claiming him and using him as a 25th man.

[Madre Dos]

Jose Berrios?

[sane]

Jose Berrios?

Not eligible for Rule V because he signed too young.

[sane]

. Melotakis won't likely pitch for a couple of months into the season, and even then he would need to be monitored very closely.  

Bard and Melotakis both have great stuff. Both have been hurt.

I just can't see either being selected...

Couldn't a team selecting either Melotakis or Bard replace them temporarily if they had to be on the DL? (see JR Graham 2015)

Seems like a perfect situation for a Rule V pick. I think they are ripe to be selected.

I can't see Michael using up a position player roster spot for an MLB team.

[sane]

According to Rule V rules, a selected player need be active (off the DL) a minimum of only 90 days (approximately three months) in order to remain with the team which drafted him. I would think that Bard and Melotakis would be desirable Rule V picks under those circumstances.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hasn't Dean been Rule 5 eligible the previous two winters? Can't say I see him as a likely pick this year, much less as a guy who could stick, he will be 27 in May and has career K/9 rates of 5.0, 4.8, and 4.9 at A, AA, and AAA, respectively. Unclaimed, a team would stand a decent shot at getting him as a minor league free agent next winter.

Edited November 18, 2015 by spycake

[beckmt]

Just don't see Dean as that needed to be protected.  Williams and Bard scare me as they could be hidden on the 25 man roster, could also see us losing Michael.  Twins could lose 4-5 players this year, it will hurt.  Pick your poison.

[clutterheart]

 

Levi Michael - ...but he could probably make a team as a 25th man who can play all three infield positions

 

The myth of Levi Michael's abilities continues.  He hasnt played anything but 2B in the last 2 years.

He turns 25 in 3 months, he hasn’t played above AA. 

 

There is no need to add him to the 40 man and lose someone else.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hasn't Dean been Rule 5 eligible the previous two winters? Can't say I see him as a likely pick this year, much less as a guy who could stick, he will be 27 in May and has career K/9 rates of 5.0, 4.8, and 4.9 at A, AA, and AAA, respectively. Unclaimed, a team would stand a decent shot at getting him as a minor league free agent next winter.

 

Yup, he has been eligible for the Rule 5 the last two years and hasn't been taken.I thought it was crazy last week when Jeremy Nygaard, on twitter, said that some were more worried about losing Dean than Gilmartin last year. I've talked to a couple of other people this week, prepping for the Prospect Handbook, and that has been pointed out to me as true. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Jose Berrios?

 

He will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster next year at this time... I have a sneaky suspicion that he'll be added before then.

[Seth Stohs]

Things the Twins need to consider in this decision:

 

1.) Would that player be selected?

2.) Could that player stick with another team through the year?

3.) If lost, would it be devastating or would it be fine?

[clutterheart]

 

Yup, he has been eligible for the Rule 5 the last two years and hasn't been taken.I thought it was crazy last week when Jeremy Nygaard, on twitter, said that some were more worried about losing Dean than Gilmartin last year. I've talked to a couple of other people this week, prepping for the Prospect Handbook, and that has been pointed out to me as true. 

 

That tells me that once again, Twins do not excell at self scouting.    

Gillmartin is a lefyt who did well vs LH hitters and he had a fine stint in the bullpen for the Mets as a left handed pitcher - something the Twins could've used in 2015.

Dean is a lefty who doesn't dominate left handed batters - therefore not suited to a bullpen role and therefore not so valuable.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2015 by clutterheart

[Monkeypaws]

I was wondering the same thing as Sane - much easier to stash a guy away on the DL for a good chunk of the season than at the end of the bullpen. Melatokis becomes even more attractive in that light.

[Shane Wahl]

In no way, shape, or form should Pat Dean be added UNLESS he is moved to be a lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

[SarasotaBill]

Twins will protect 5-7 this year not counting Berrios.

 

Protection Order:

Rogers

Walker

Chargois

Jones

Williams

Melotakis

Bard

 

[DocBauer]

You're right on Williams, he should be higher on the list. (I confess, I had almost forgotten about him until you had him on your recent prospect lists) But fully healthy, good stuff, a solid year, and virtually EVERYONE looking for LH bullpen help, I think he'd be gone and stay gone. There is a good chance he could help the Twins this season. He needs to be protected.

 

I'd like to keep Michael. But if push comes to shove, I'd take the risk on losing him over other guys on the list. A 130 combined games in 2 years at AA or below, I just don't think he'd be a prime target for anyone.

[DJL44]

#1, #2, #3, #5, #7 should be added. Those are the ones that would hurt if they got away. 1, 2, 3, 5 should all be in AAA next year and might be valuable depth call-ups, meaning it won't be a wasted 40 man roster slot. Felix Jorge has upside and I can see someone wanting to steal him. For #1, #2 and #3 if they don't want to protect them they should trade them to a team that would.

 

Pat Dean is freely available talent. He won't make the starting rotation and he's not a great prospect for the bullpen. I think eventually he signs elsewhere as a minor league free agent.

 

Zach Jones is a bad bet to stick all year in the majors. Ditto with Bard and Melotakis though someone could play disabled list games with them. They might protect Melotakis for that reason, power lefties are scarce.

 

[Madre Dos]

 

He will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster next year at this time... I have a sneaky suspicion that he'll be added before then.

YEAH!  Such a nice kid.  (Kid, Married with a beautiful daughter, Valentina.)

[Seth Stohs]

 

I was wondering the same thing as Sane - much easier to stash a guy away on the DL for a good chunk of the season than at the end of the bullpen. Melatokis becomes even more attractive in that light.

 

And then he would have to stay in the big leagues longer into 2017 or be offered back. It's possible. That's a case I've argued in the past. But it hasn't happened. 

[nater79a]

Can someone explain to me how this works:

 

Let's say you have a full 40-man roster (which you wouldn't, but just for the sake of argument). You then make a trade before the Rule V draft, one player off your 40-man for two 40-man players from another organization. Obviously, you'd have to cut a player from your roster but can you add a minor league protectible from another team? Just not from your own organization? Is that within the rules?

[Linus]

Michael has zero chance of being taken in the rule 5. And if by some miracle he was it would be a non factor. He's more suspect than prospect

[Steve Lein]

I don't think Dean will be selected, and if he is, I wouldn't feel too bad. I'd take Rogers in the only role that either of them have the opportunity to fill with the Twins 10 out of 10 times, and that's lefty specialist in the 'pen.
 

So I'd protect Rogers, Walker, Chargois, Michael, and Harrison.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And then he would have to stay in the big leagues longer into 2017 or be offered back. It's possible. That's a case I've argued in the past. But it hasn't happened. 

Seth, the suggestion is that the player would spend the minimum of 90 days active in 2016.  So no, they wouldn't be subject to Rule 5 restrictions beyond 2016.

 

And it's happened before, just not to the Twins.  Arizona had Oscar Hernandez, the #1 pick in last year's Rule 5 draft, on the DL until July 4th this year, activating him just in time to meet the 90 days requirement by season's end.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Atlanta did it with Daniel Winkler in last year's Rule 5 draft too, although he was recovering from TJ surgery and didn't make the active roster until September.  So he will need to spend ~60 days active in 2016 to remove the Rule 5 restrictions.

 

I'd guess it's gaining momentum as a strategy, particularly as more pitchers get TJ surgery.  Don't know if the Twins current guys would be particularly attractive candidates, though.

Edited November 18, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can someone explain to me how this works:

Let's say you have a full 40-man roster (which you wouldn't, but just for the sake of argument). You then make a trade before the Rule V draft, one player off your 40-man for two 40-man players from another organization. Obviously, you'd have to cut a player from your roster but can you add a minor league protectible from another team? Just not from your own organization? Is that within the rules?

Yes, if they are on a 40-man roster on draft day, they will be protected, regardless of which organization originally added them to their roster.

 

I think the Nov. 20 add deadline is in place so teams can't do a ton of last-minute protections to cause confusion, that's all.  Guys can still get dropped from the roster and made eligible for Rule 5 after that date, and I suspect you would have the opportunity to add/protect any newly acquired players after that date too.

[sane]

Can someone explain to me how this works:

 

Let's say you have a full 40-man roster (which you wouldn't, but just for the sake of argument). You then make a trade before the Rule V draft, one player off your 40-man for two 40-man players from another organization. Obviously, you'd have to cut a player from your roster but can you add a minor league protectible from another team? Just not from your own organization? Is that within the rules?

I believe that since you don't have room on your 40-man roster, he would have to be on your minor league reserve list.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yup, he has been eligible for the Rule 5 the last two years and hasn't been taken.I thought it was crazy last week when Jeremy Nygaard, on twitter, said that some were more worried about losing Dean than Gilmartin last year. I've talked to a couple of other people this week, prepping for the Prospect Handbook, and that has been pointed out to me as true. 

Thanks for the info on Dean, Seth.

 

If they protect Dean, after leaving Gilmartin unprotected last winter, I think that will indeed be crazy.  Nothing against him, but Dean is 2 years older than Gilmartin was last year (and still a year older than Gilmartin in absolute terms too), not to mention the obvious performance differences.